“Rainbow” infrared satellite image at 8:15 PM EDT. Live loop here.
Hurricane Ike has regained Category 4 intensity this evening, with maximum sustained winds of 135 mph, and its long-term prognosis has changed dramatically: the monster storm now appears more likely to eventually hit Louisiana or Texas than to make landfall on the Florida peninsula, as once seemed likely. (The Florida Keys, however, remain at substantial risk, particularly Key West, and folks there should heed the evacuation order — Ike’s track is way too close for comfort.)
More imminently, Ike is about to slam into the Turks and Caicos Islands. Alan Sullivan writes: “There will be complete devastation on those low islands. This is certain. They will be in the north eyewall a few hours from now. It is too late for any wobble to spare them.” [UPDATE: In a 10pm update, Sullivan writes: “I shouldn’t make categorical statements. Ike’s course has wobbled back to WSW. Providenciales (i.e., the capital city of Turks and Caicos) may be just outside the eyewall.”]
Ike will then likely hit Great Inagua, the southernmost island in the Bahamas, with similarly terrible force tomorrow. After that, Ike’s predicted course takes it across Cuba, wreaking further devastation on an island already reeling from Gustav. Such a passage of Cuba would also substantially weaken the storm, but it could potentially restrengthen over the Gulf of Mexico. (On the other hand, as Sullivan writes in comments here, “Water temps are even lower than the were for Gustav, and another lode of dry air has come off the continent. IMO, Ike has no chance of coming ashore at full force in the northern Gulf.”)
That, again, is what the current forecast calls for. However, the computer model consensus has been shifting steadily to the “left,” or west, over the last two days, so who knows whether the current forecast will finally be the correct one? Maybe Ike will cross southeastern Cuba, re-emerge over the western Caribbean, and make a beeline for the Yucatan Peninsula. That would be the natural progression of the leftward model trend. We just don’t know at this point whether the models are finished “shifting.”
The shift in the computer model tracks is not just some random variation. Basically, the forecasts initially called for a “weakness” to develop in the upper-level high pressure system north of Ike, which would allow the storm to “turn right” and move northward, instead of chugging steadily west along the periphery of the high’s clockwise rotation. However, as Eric Berger explained at 8:58 PM EDT, “few of the models now forecast the hurricane to find a weakness in the high-pressure ridge.” This means “the system could follow a due west, or a west-northwest course, once it enters the Gulf.”
If Ike does indeed head west or west-northwest, that would be a relief to New Orleans. The current official forecast track, as of 5pm EDT (it’ll be replaced at 11pm with a new forecast), has Ike moving straight northwest, directly toward the Big Easy, raising the specter of a second evacuation in as many weeks. The Times-Picayune reported earlier today that FEMA’s chief of Louisiana operations, Bob Fenton, said of Ike, “Yesterday we were keeping one eye on it, but today we’re keeping two eyes on it.” That’s a good plan. Ike could move W or WNW, as Berger says, but it could also move NW, and that would put New Orleans in the bullseye.
Mind you, we’re talking about a potential threat that is perhaps a week away, so it’s certainly nothing imminent — no need for hype or panic. But here’s hoping the track shifts far enough away from New Orleans that hype and panic won’t become the norm in a few days. The last thing that city needs is yet another hurricane threatening its survival, even if it would end up being another near-miss. A far-miss would be much preferable.
Anyway, quoting Berger again, the Houston Chronicle weatherblogger notes that Ike’s leftward computer model shift “means that Texas is as likely a candidate for a final landfall as any other Gulf Coast state.” He adds:
If Ike follows the model consensus (and why should it start now?) it will spend a couple of days over Cuba, which should weaken the storm significantly.
The GFDL model, for example, sees Cuba’s terrain weaken Ike from a Category 4 hurricane to a Category 1 storm as it traces the spine of the narrow, mountainous island. The HWRF model is similar. . . . All of this potential interaction with land muddies the question of how strong Ike will become once over the Gulf of Mexico again, but I think it’s safe to assume some re-strengthening is likely.
It’s way too early to say where the hurricane might go once back in the Gulf, but tonight the odds of a Texas landfall are considerably higher than they were just a day ago. . . . The primary consolation for Texans is that the long-range model projections have been changing all week, and there’s no reason we shouldn’t expect them to continue to change.
As Berger also notes: “Amazingly, just 36 hours ago, we were talking about the likelihood of a Miami landfall.” Indeed — it’s been a remarkably swift change in Ike’s prognosis, and who knows how things will look in another 24 or 36 hours?
UPDATE: The official NHC forecast track has, as I expected, shifted slightly further left as of 11:00 PM EDT. This change simply reflects the above-described model shift. The five-day forecast is no longer “aimed” at New Orleans. However, that means very little, if anything, at this point. The entire Gulf Coast needs to watch Ike.
As for intensity, the discussion states:
ONCE IKE MOVES OUT OF CUBA…AND MOVE[S] TO THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO IT COULD REGAIN SOME OF THE FORMER INTENSITY AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT [IS] INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE HWRF MAKES IKE AN INTENSE HURRICANE AGAIN…AND GLOBAL MODELS…PRIMARILY THE GFS…MAKE IKE A VERY LARGE HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. . . .
I HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST…BUT NOT CONFIDEN[CE] ENOUGH TO KNOW IF IKE WILL MOVE OVER CUBA OR OVER WATER SINCE CUBA IS LONG BUT NARROW. HOWEVER…I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT THAT IN FIVE DAYS…THERE WILL BE A LARGE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
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