Tropical Storm Edouard strengthened overnight to a 65 mph system, and made the previously discussed northwest turn. As a result, Edouard’s center is about to come ashore near the Texas/Louisiana border.
Because of this “right turn,” it appears the Houston-Galveston area will be spared the worst of the storm, causing many residents there to wonder what all the fuss was about. Track-wise, this is a bit like Rita Redux, though Edouard’s intensity is of course far less. [UPDATE/CORRECTION: Eric Berger writes, "Edouard's turn is only to the west-northwest rather than more northerly like Rita, meaning as the storm comes inland it still should pass across the Houston area. ... [M]ost parts of the Houston metro area should get considerably more rain than came during Hurricane Rita.”]
Meanwhile, the more northward track means that Edouard may not bring as much rain as hoped to the most drought-stricken areas of central Texas. Nevertheless, heavy rain will be the storm’s biggest impact. Wind damage will be minimal.
That said, the National Hurricane Center’s 5:00 AM EDT discussion says Edouard may yet strengthen a bit more in its final hours over the Gulf:
THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS HAVE A VERY HIGH SKIN TEMPERATURE BUT DO NOT HAVE A PARTICULARLY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS DECREASING AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS INCREASING SO DYNAMICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TIME REMAINING BEFORE LANDFALL. EDOUARD MIGHT STILL BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE CROSSING THE COAST BUT…AS NOTED EARLIER…THERE IS LITTLE PRACTICAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND A LOW-END HURRICANE.
This will probably be my last full update until midday. However, I’m sure the Houston Chronicle‘s Eric Berger will have storm coverage throughout the day, as will the Chronicle‘s staff hurricane blog. And here’s a live radar loop of Edouard, which will stay current all day:
That’s from the National Weather Service. You can also view a live radar loop from Weather Underground.
Latest forecast puts the storm directly over my house at 1pm. Don’t need the rain myself, as we have gotten at least one good downpour a week in July. Not to worried though about water, as we were high and dry during TS Allison.
I did note the new forecast has moved to north of the model consensus. As I write this, what I would call the eye is directly south of Port Arthur, barely offshore.
An unusual storm, in that the northwest quadrant appears to be the most developed. The trailing rain bands could set up “trains” into Louisiana, causing local flooding.
Now what to do with my free day off…
Report from Groves, Tx
Groves is between Pt.Arthur and Beaumont. Its starting to make a little show right now. The trees a swaying a little bit. Local weather guys are saying High Island to Sabine Pass. Picking up from 60 to 65. The old part of our town is lined with 100 plus year old pecan trees so I don’t expect to keep power. We were without for 3 days with Humberto last year. It hasn’t come ashore yet, but I’ll post if I can.
Must have heard an old report. Now the local guy says it’s coming right at us with a landfall around 7:00 am. So far not near the show that Humberto was last summer.
I commented about two days ago. I live in the Clear Lake area of Houston, just south of Clear Creek. I had planned to ride this out at home from the get-go.
None of the storm’s behavior really surprised me. Not its erratic path, slow progress, or failure to strengthen. It is early in the season, and the upper Gulf (particularly) has little energy.
NASA closed down yesterday at noon — unnecessarily in my opinion. My employer followed suit (announcing a noon closure at 12:15). That canceled a qualification board that I was supposed to appear before, and which now must be rescheduled next month. (I have been through weather scrubs of launches before, but not a qualification exam.) And, of course, the weather was gorgeous.
After getting our storm prep done (Mostly putting lawn stuff in the garage. Did not board up windows. If the power goes out you get hot and damp. If that happens in a boarded up house, you get hot and damp in the dark) I went to Galveston for the rest of the afternoon. Why not? Weather was fine, and the storm was not a threat.
Today, I will stay home and work on a model or two. This is not going to be worse than a bad line of thunderstorms.
I’m also in the Clear Lake Area, and also on a NASA-initiated day off. We’ve had steady (but not heavy) rain, and little wind so far. I found the forecasting to be puzzling: about 10PM last night all the computer models showed a track passing westward through Galveston bay and right over central Houston. The meteorologist said that should be accurate (because the models all agreed). However, the radar loops clearly showed a north-westward path. It appears that the models were making far too much of the upper level ridge which was expected to keep Edouard from turning northward…
Come Onnnnn Eduardo!
We need the heat relief!
Mike Y
Dallas, Texas
I’ve subbed to your feed Brendan; I enjoy reading your posts.
I have a small collection of animated radar bookmarks for Houston and southern Texas, but none of the ones I had showed beyond Tx/La border. Thanks for adding to my collection LOL.
PS: Who is *JEFF* Berger? (hee hee)
(blasted comcast, please delete if this double posts)
Oops! I mixed up Eric Berger and Jeff Masters there. Thanks; will fix. And thanks for the subscription, too