A.B. Stoddard asks what happens if the Democrats hold the Senate next week:
A few scenarios could help the Democrats hold on this year. Louisiana could go to a well-funded runoff election on a weekend in December that could enable Sen. Mary Landrieu to better target her voters and win. Wild cards — like the prospect of Kansas’s Republican governor, Sam Brownback, dragging Sen. Pat Roberts down with him — are possible.
The victory for Democrats, and defeat for Republicans, could be compounded by another possibility: Hillary Clinton winning the presidency in 2016. Sure, she might not run, and she might not win — but Republicans everywhere are worried she will do both. As the party searches for a powerhouse who can raise a billion dollars, 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney is suddenly back at the top of everyone’s list. A Clinton win would not only be historic, as our first woman president, it would break a trend in which only once has either party has managed to hold the White House (former President George H. W. Bush, in 1992) for three consecutive terms in 60 years. Unlikely, but again — entirely possible.
There is also a structural disadvantage for Republicans in 2016, as they will be defending 24 seats in the Senate while Democrats will be up in only 10.
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