That what at least one recent poll shows. Of course, Smart VodkaPundit Readers™ saw this coming a long time ago.
So, I looked at the internals, and I do not think it is in play. Why not? Women. If it were not for women, we would never be afflicted with these Marxist Democrats. Of course, it’s because of abortion. If the Right dropped it, more women would be be on the Right. Of course, if you think it is wrong, there is really no way to drop it, but it could be de-emphasized. That would allow us to replace all the activist judges, at least.
With all 4 major Iowa papers endorsing Mittens, I wonder if we can slide that state into at least “leans Romney?”
And yet Romney cannot get a single poll showing him ahead in Ohio. These indications don’t make any sense, at least one of them must be wrong. I just wish I knew which ones.
It’s almost enough to drive a man to drink.
Jeff – if they show R winning Ohio the election is over. If you dig into almost all of these polls they usually actually show R with a small lead. When Barone and Rove and others put their reps on the line saying R takes Ohio that should help
That may explain the media and democrat (BIRM) polls not favoring Romney, but Rasmussen not being able to find Romney up, even within MOE, has me worried. Barone and Rove predicting a Republican win in a close election aren’t exactly risking their reputations. Everyone knows they’re partisan and will tend to view anything ambiguous through GOP-tinted glasses. Now, if someone like Carville were to predict a Romney win, that would carry some weight.
The enthusiasm gap, Romney’s lead nationally and among independents, and the trend lines for the past month all point to a Romney win. But, since that’s the result I want to see I need to be extra skeptical of them. After all, the Deepwater Horizon catastrophe was caused by operators believing the indications telling them what they wanted to hear.
Where’s my coffee cup?
The latest Rasmussen has Ohio tied at 48 each, with three percent undecided. If those are the final figures right before Election Day, typically the incumbent would lose by about 49-51.
Well, that was easier than I expected.
I wonder if it generalizes. Not being able to motorboat Scarlett Johansson has me worried.
From all I’ve been able to find, Minnesota is nearly impossible to accurately poll. They do not require party identification during registration. So we really do not know if the 38% Democrat 33% Republican self-identification is a accurate sample. This is a state that elected Jessie Ventura and Green party member.
Do I think Romney will carry it? It would be a nice surprise and bigger electoral cushion for him to do so, but I do not think it will happen. It is a great move to suck the Democrats funds dry from real swing states, however.
Yup, this. China shut down “Obama.com” for Chinese users–that tells me that the unwelcome attention to foreign donations has borne fruit. The Obama campaign is now under-funded, and forcing them to stretch their ad dollars will hit them where it hurts.
Apparently, R&R are looking at hitting Minnesota.
I lived in conservative Anoka County for 8+ years, and I was impressed with how the conservative movement slowly, but surely, was growing in MN. My theory is that the Marriage amendment is really energizing this base. In fact, conservatives who previously may have been “hit & miss” in their voting habits are no doubt now firmly committed to standing strong for traditional marriage. A side-effect of this may, indeed, be a razor thin edge for Romney and an election day minor miracle.
If MN does fall to Romney, that pretty much means every other swing state will, too, including ones like MI and PA that the MSM has only flirted with being in play. I’m not sure I actually see this happening. If it does, sadly with the time zone difference we won’t get to watch the dominoes fall. The closest we have to a lead domino in EST is PA–at least among the swing states.
Once possible fly in the ointment is that states like Maine and Nebraska can legally split their electoral votes. They don’t have winner-take-all electors, but when wargaming the EC, some people ignore this possibility. It DID happen in 2008, where Nebraska gave one of its 5 electors to Obama.
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