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Wargaming the Electoral College

October 18th, 2012 - 1:14 pm

Word is, and nobody at Camp Obama has done a fully-assed job of denying it, that the campaign is building a “firewall” around four states: IA, NH, NV and OH. Now “firewall” might be the correct word, but I’ve been using “triage.” They’re hoping — praying? — for an election night return that looks like so.

Obama can lose any one state, except OH, and still win. He can even lose two states, provided one of them is NH and the other one isn’t WI (or OH, of course).

If the Obama camp’s triage looks a little optimistic — desperate? — it’s for two reasons. The first is, they’re playing defense deep in their own territory. All the historic gains of 2008 have proven as ephemeral as closing Gitmo or getting us down to 5.6% unemployment. The second is, the opening given here to Romney. With CO, FL, NC, and VA all seemingly safe in his pocket, there is every reason for Romney and Ryan to start hitting MI, MN, PA, and WI every bit as hard as they’re hitting OH.

Obama wants to defend four states? Screw that, Mitt — make him cover twice that many.

If we go back to Tuesday’s map, it could very well be that IA, NH and NV are already gone, since Obama has never done better than 47% in any reputable poll in any of those three states. Romney could then become the first Republican to lose OH and win the election. In other words, if Romney takes my advice and pushes into MI, MN, PA, and WI, then Obama has to sweep everything behind his firewall or he’s probably toast.

Or to borrow Peter Ingemi’s marvelous way of putting it, “Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell!

Also read: Hey Obama, Your Firewall Is on Fire

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