Wargaming the Electoral College: Quick and Dirty Tuesday Edition

Suffolk University’s decision to stop polling in FL, NC, and VA got me to thinking, What if we applied their reasoning to the country as a whole? If you’ll recall, Suffolk pulled out of those three states because Obama had never polled better than 47%. And this late in the game, that’s a damn-near insurmountable obstacle for an incumbent to overcome. (True, Romney could bite the head off a live chicken while wrapped in a burning American flag during the debate tonight and suffer a total collapse — but that would make polling even less necessary, not more.)

Let’s look at the states where Obama can’t cross 49% — much less 50% — in the most reputable polls I can find, and apply the Rule of the Undecideds. (Undecideds break 70%-30% for the challenger.) Here’s what we get:

A huge win? No. But it’s a good one. And it’s exactly why Romney (and American Crossroads, which pulled out of MI prematurely) should be taking the fight to MI and PA. This President is on the defensive, and it’s time Team Romney started acting like it.