Wargaming the Electoral College
We’re going to do something a little different today, and examine each campaign’s best-case scenario — and their squeaker scenarios, too. Our betters in the Complicit Media keep telling us that this is a 50/50 nation, so let’s take them at their word this once.
Now, after a nine-figure negative ad campaign against Romney managed to move the needle only slightly — in Romney’s favor — I believe this 50/50 nation stuff is about as accurate as phrenology. Still, it makes for some interesting speculation. And — who knows? — the Democrat machine might just turn up enough dead, illegal, and/or Facebook voters to make it seem true just one more time.
Before we get to that, however, let’s look at the best cases. And for Obama, this first map is as good as it can possibly get:
Here, Romney peels away IN and NC, and that’s it. Keep in mind, Obama lost those two states right around January 20, 2009. The GOP could have raised Hitler from the dead, stuck Zombie Hitler on the top of the ticket, run him on a platform of “BRAAAAAAAAAINS!” and still taken IN and NC away from Obama.
I consider this outcome about as likely as the Brooklyn Dodgers going all the way to the Stanley Cup, barring some kind of unimaginably big (and probably illegal) October Surprise. Honestly though, as ineffective as Team Obama has been thus far, I’d expect their attempt at a Surprise to result in somehow swinging Illinois to Romney.
you forgot another option – the O mysteriously (and unexpectedly) disappears to work out some ‘personal issues’ in Venezuela, and Joe Biden takes his place, with Nan Pelosi the VP – suddenly I smell a 500 win.
Just think if obama doesn’t get the nomination from the dems and instead they nominate Hitlery. The resultant crush of adulation for her and bill might be insurmountable. That is the only way the dems could win, imho.
OOrah! It could happen. Semper Fi!
Even Hitlerry wouldn’t be quite as bad as Oshambles.
Does one suppose she might just use the Oval Office to get even with Silly Willy?
Or, what if the Demonrats ran Sidney Ann’s illegitimate little boy as Hitlerry’s VP?
Only conjecture. The CFR will choose their candidate and stack the vote to win.
While we watch and weep.
Does anyone else think that there might a good chance that Romney wins the popular vote but lose the electoral vote? Especially if the end result is something like the “Obama Squeaker” scenario?
No.
Sorry, I didn’t mean to be obtuse. I just had not seen anyone address that question as yet.
You weren’t being obtuse; I was being a jerk.
Love it. BTW, you did not build that post on your own…
I’m stealing that one!
To be slightly less flippant, I covered just that question back in May.
That is a very real possibility. Obama is going to lose the popular vote, that’s a no brainer in light of the fact he got only 53% in 2008 with no record and massive media support. However voter fraud in Ohio and a few other places, plus the Hispanic and women’s vote could give him the election.
In a way that would be very good. Remember we want the philosophy rather than the man permanently discredited. It’s safe to say that if Obama is returned to office the effects will be catastrophic in ways we cannot predict. Let the people who supported this jackass confront the results of their imbecility; maybe that will wake them up. (I know I’m being optimistic but that ain’t against the law.)
Bob, Always nice to hear an optimist, but I think 4 more years of this fool could be catastrophic.
(Scratches head)
That’s your OPTIMISTIC scenario?
I’d hate to see the pessimistic one…
The thing that is so appealing about the last scenario is that down-ticket, we’d be looking at a solid R (with Tea Party blood flowing in their veins) majority in the Senate, and quite a few state houses flipping, too. If Obama really went belly-up this way, it would be a blood bath of epic proportions.
I don’t think the mandate would be any clearer.
‘Tis a consummation devoutly to be wished….
We’ve got to do more than wish, Nuke. We’ve got to organize, proselytize, contribute, watch polling places, file suits where they try to finagle a win. It ain’t pretty, but it’s got to be done.
BTW, I was fooling around with the “do-it-yourself” electoral map over at RCP and came up with 264 for R, 182 for O and 92 in the “tossup” category, which I actually think was being generous toward O. I think it’s quite possible O is heading for Carter territory or below … maybe WAY below.
I think he will do worse than Mondale.
I’m going to put Ohio in the probable category for Mittens. As I’ve already said, I’m in Toledo, which is a heavily union-Democrat area, and our property values have gone down. Everyone in Lucas county got a property reassessment, and in the Democrat areas (basically the city, the suburbs are more Republican) they’ve gone down by about 25%. That’s more effective at suppressing Democrat voters than any positive or negative ad.
Can’t speak for Cleveland or Columbus, but the southeast is coal country. Dear Liar is not getting many votes there.
Of course, the Stupid Party may do something incredibly stupid.
Hey, when the Dems trash you property values by 25% (documented!) your Property TAXES go down by the same percentage, right?
HA HA just wanted to say that for a laugh.
Yup, which is why Toledo Public Schools is pushing for yet another new levy this fall. Gonna vote a big no on that.
And the Cleveland (Ohio) School District and Mayor are planning to ask voters to increase the school levy by about 50% (you read that right) this November. I’d be very surprised if the levy is approved, but the levy might actually increase Democratic voter turnout.
In Strongsville, we voted the levy down 5 times now. So the unions are taking it into committee for vote. I don’t understand how they can do that.
I multiplied the levy times the total the total property and business property values (appraisal district) and divided that total by the number of teachers. While it will raise my school taxes $800 a month, it will provide each teacher with a $27,000 raise.
When I asked the commissioners why each teacher woul warrant a $27,000 raise, they said each teacher would not be getting that. The raise also goes to union stewards, ombudsment and others.
I have owned this house for 3 years and now the taxes will exceed the principal and interest payment. Maybe they should could and get it.
For those of you otuside the area, we pay taxes to the state to schools, to the city we work in, to the city we live in, and (contrary to Prez Obama understanding) we pay RITA taxes for the roads. I wish those RITA taxes would make me successful. Still waiting on that.
We’re in Strongsville Ohio south of Cleveland. Life is bad and getting worse. The old party union diehards cling to the good old Dem/Union times’and continue voting that way or because someone is knocking on their front door at 3 am. A lot of union folks have lost their jobs along with everyone else. While some still bleat the propaganda of “bad corporate greed”, many have realized that shutting a company down is bad for all.
The Dim propaganda has a stronghold here in a very coordinated manner. They have people assigned to address any internet ad or topic that comes up and spend the day dispersing their ideology. Any blog addressing how Sherod has jacked up our electric and tripled the rates, and the left will have a person assigned to argue all day and nite.
Outside of Americans for Properity, there is no one here sheding light on the dems while they have a calvacade of soldiers bleating the merits of why my porperty taxes should go up $800 a month to fund teacher raises at $27,000 each (while the teachers will only get $2000). Or argue the case for ACA Obamacare door to door.
Obama is giving away everything he can get his hands on to “buy” his base. He is willing to sit in the reception line at weddings, (possibly dressed as Dennis Rodman) to take the bride’s dowry and her/his hope chest.
But, he needs to grab Ohio or Florida and what he would give away for that could be almost anything.
Secondly, we aren’t into the threat phase, we are only in the bribery phase for you non-Chicagoans.
“Nice home you got there, foreclosure people, be sad if something happens to it”
“Ohio is in line for some nice kickbacks…er…federal funding…but we are just so tight, we might have to pull it from Ohio to give it to California which is REALLY suffering”
“Nice dog you have there, anyone have any hot sauce?”
By the way, if a Republican President or his team had made that ridiculously callous wedding gift remark, SNL would have already run a hilarious skit showing the President standing in some random couple’s wedding reception line and directing guests to place their gifts on a special reelection donation table just for him.
no kidding. it sad how comedians have fallen these last few decades. they used to be fair and equal bashers on both sides of the fence.now you have seth macfarlene, jon stewart,colbert,mauher,snl and etc. who are dnc cheerleaders in all but name bashing the right nonstop. it is disgusting. what the f@$* happened to them? What happended to the news too, to make them so so socalist?
Obama’s not getting 300 electoral votes, not with the voter disenchantment with his (failed) policies and the 2010 GOP Mid-Term tsunami. The only way he does get to 270 votes is if Romney makes the kind of spectacular failures that McCain made in September 2008 (which I don’t foresee happening).
In fact, I think it’s more likely we’ll see Obama make those kind of mistakes (like his “you didn’t build this” gaffe). Also, considering that almost every poll has the race effectively tied, but with a D+ 5-8 in their samples, it tells me that 80% of the electorate has their minds made up already, and independents and the more low-information voters are waiting for Romney to “sell” himself to them.
If Romney keeps holding serve (which he generally has been doing since taking the GOP nom lead), and the economy remains in its current position, I think the baseline- not the bet case scenario- for Romney is your “best case” scenario and the Obama collapse. Granted, that requires Romney not to do his best Derpy Hooves impression.
Steve,
It is interesting to note that in all your maps you assume Massachusetts goes for O no matter what. Being a scholar-in-residence masshole around PJM boards (take that for whatever you think it is worth…) who lives in a cobalt-blue precinct (we went 70% for Martha Coakley fer cryin’ out loud!) I see lots of Romney bumper stickers in my neighborhood. Even my parents, dyed in the wool Democrats since Adlai Stephenson lost to Ike twice, speak highly of the former governor.
MA is not in the bag just yet! And that is 11 more EV’s that Team O has to sweat it out for.
Reagan managed to win MA in 1984 as part of a 49-state near-sweep.
At this point though, 2012 election is shaping up more like 1980 than 1984.
Agreed it is more 1980 than ’84. And Reagan won here both times; the first by a hair’s breadth but a win nonetheless.
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=1980&fips=25&f=0&off=0&elect=0
MA will go for a Republican who can appeal to the left-of-right-of-left-of-right-of-center voter. Reagan did it quite well and Romney certainly has a bit of history here in that regard as well. Heck, even Scott Brown, a total empty suit, was able to work it successfully against the D-machine’s anointed one. We may well go blue again like we traditionally do but O will have to step it up here to make sure that happens. Stunts like David Axelrod getting jeered on the Statehouse steps do not help.
Thanks for the correction. My memory isn’t as good as it used to be, and it used to be pretty lousy.
The final map would probably be the only one that would at least partially silence the Diebold!!! crowd, as far as the election being stolen goes. Romney winning 1-2 states the Democrats now consider theirs in perpetuity still won’t stop them from yelling about Racist Jesusland come Nov. 7, but it would actually give them pause about why some of the ‘smart’ bi-coastal people abandoned Obama and joined with the flyover country morons (though as with 2008, the county-by-county election results for Nov. 6 are going to show a much redder nation than the state-by-state maps, and in a couple of Blue States like New York and Illinois, the results could be shockingly rojo even if Obama still wins both states by 3-5 points).
No, they’ll just yell RAAAACISST!!! that much louder. {sigh}
This. Sigh.
Considering the effort that Holder and company have put in to protect the rights of illegal and/or non-existent voters, I worry about states where the count is close. A lot. More than that, I worry about a made up story that will put the Dan Rather fiasco to shame being release the Friday before election day. Remember: CBS had planned to air the fake TANG story on Sunday, just two days before the election. The only reason that they released the story earlier enough to be debunked is that the NYT or some other rag was going to scoop them on the story. I guess I should be thankful that most of the MSM are a bunch of whores.
The legacy media will try something, but the fact that they’re ALREADY very shrill in their rants about Romney will most likely mean that anything they put out will be National Enquirer level fakery. I expect “former” maids or secretaries will come forth (like with Herman Cain) and talk about how he sexually harassed them or something, and the media will run with it…….right up until someone checks their stories and finds out they never worked directly for Romney (or his VP).
Romney’s best bet is to pick a VP nom that he really takes a fine tooth comb to, in order to make sure there are no skeletons in their closet. That’s the only thing that scares me at this point, is him pulling Palin 2.0.
If he wants to do 2008 redux, he’ll choose Huckabee, not Palin. Arkansas under the Clinton machine is the closest approximation to Chicago politics outside of Chicago, and Huckabee managed to beat the machine four times. Huckabee knows how to beat these guys and at the same time doesn’t enjoy it (if he did, he’d be the nominee right now; Romney only won because Huckabee didn’t run, and Romney knows it).
When somebody beats the machine four times, it’s NOT because they beat the machine. It’s because they ARE the machine.
How do you figure? Where is the resemblance between the Huckabee administration and the Clinton/Tucker administration?
What an ignoramus you are. Palin was the best thing that happened to McCain. She is the one that wanted to expose Obama, or whoever he is, for what he is but the campaign geniuses surrounding McCain and McCain himself would not let her. Read a book, watch a documentary. Quit spouting RINO trash about Palin.
When I came into work this morn, my office Dem was talking about how the Republicans are turning on Romney. There’s going to be a serious effort to oust him as the nominee at the convention too. Apparently, the reason Repubs don’t like him is cause he’s rich. And arrogant.
Huh.
This guy get’s all his news from NPR.
I love the smell of desperation on NPR in the morning. It smells like…Victory!
Ohhhh yeah…
But I keep repeating to myself “Great, kid! Don’t get cocky!” /Insty
Or, when it comes to discussing issues instead of spinning “racism” into evey discussion:
“Bring it on, I prefer a straight fight to all this sneakin’ around stuff”
That NPR guy is very typical of lefitsts who can’t see beyond their echo chamber. Republicans and libertarians are just “things” to them, and all information gathered about “others” is absorbed through that prism. It hasn’t dawned on them (if it ever does) that the “opposition” might just win this big time.
Is there reason to doubt that all but a fraction of a percent of those who voted for McCain will show up and vote for Romney? Here in Missouri, Obama barely lost to McCain – and given the closeness it took about a week to determine that. Evangelicals? We’ve plenty of them. It’s not going be close this time. The reaction to Obama in 2010 was such that only two counties in the whole state voted Democratic in the Congressional elections: Poor ol’ Ike Skelton a long serving Democrat incumbent who wasn’t all that connected to adminstration was drown in the tsunami. McCaskill is now desparate and trailing any of three possible contenders. Jay Nixon our Democrat governor, running again this year, has been quiet as a church mouse for the better part of a year. Who thinks that Missouri is unique?
The only question at issue is how badly the Obama camp is bleeding voters from their 2008 totals. From my perspective, it looks to be bad. There’s blood all over the floor. The turnout here will reflect the 2010 midterms – at the very least. Opponents of the left should focus as much on the state races as on the national ones. 2010 was a bloodbath; 2012 can be too. Why do you think Pelosi is advocating that members stay away from the convention? A repeat of 2010 would be an achievement that would take several cycles to undo.
Maybe this doesn’t fit in with this column, but,
From hotair:
Why doesn’t the Gov say, as he has said, I will only rlease two years of taxes and then call on the IRS to audit him, immediately.
Then he should release all his grades, all his transcripts, his passport, birth certificate and say nothing more about it!
Of course, Romney has probably been audited every year!
Never the less it should be brought out!
I still believe his returns are sitting in the Oval Office.
Of course the returns have been in the campaign’s hands since Gov. Romney declared and have been gone through with a fine-toothed comb by Comrade Axelrod’s apparatchiks. They want them released so they can legally use them for some campaign meme they have planned. With the kind of idiots that would vote for Obama, they can tell them anything and they’ll believe it, so it doesn’t have to be true, just believeable to idiots.
Trouble is, the fact that having them is illegal won’t stop them if they get desperate as the election gets closer; they’ll leak them, make up some lie about it, and the media will swear to their lie. If they win, it won’t matter that it was illegal and if they lose they’ll assume they can count on the appeal by the media for Republicans to “be nice” will keep them out of jail.
In every scenario I see that New Mexico is Obama’s. I think it could be in play.
I haven’t yet seen anything reputable out of NM, so I’m reserving judgement. But my gut tells me you may be right.
But right enough to overcome the Holder Margin of Cheating?
It is hard to overcome the built in fraud that was in place before Holder. But Romney has a lot of factors in his favor. Significent Mormon population, many military bases and dependents, farmers and ranchers, extraction industries and the workers depending on them; all lean heavily Republican. The governor is Republican and would be VP material if New Mexico had another dozen electoral votes. The negatives are Romney and the Senatorial candidate, Wilson. The institutional “Hispanic” vote will go for Obama but everyday voters of Mexican ancestory are less monolithic than given credit for. Romney will get a good share of their votes.
Stephan, you have a popular Democrat governor in Colorado. How do you see Colorado shaping up?
Question: Will the Hispanic vote in NM be influenced by the lawsuits the Catholic church has going against the Obama administration?
Not an expert, but my take is that the Mexican Americans in New Mexico and Texas are not a monolithic voting bloc and never will be. They are culturally conservative and many are small business owners. This makes them available to Republicans that court them (i.e., ask for their vote).
So, yeah, I think it will be a factor, if Romney is wise enough to exploit it.
Unfortunately the Republicans in Colorado are still in disarray after their incompetent upstream swim for blue waters in the red state tsunami of 2010. Plus the dems here have their traditional illegal constituency and the voting machine malfunction constituency.
Really, it’s even worse than that here. The state GOP has been in Circular Firing Squad mode since about 2006. I can’t believe they haven’t yet run out of bullets.
Seriously Steve, you and the rest of the native Coloradans need to head to the boarder and turn back all us Californians. We’re like locusts and we’ve eaten everything here.
I just hope Texas lets me back in when the time comes. I fear it may be too late for me.
Save yourselves!
New Mexico’s the only state where the Gary Johnson factor might actually be a factor. Johnson served two terms as N.M. governor prior to Bill “Major League” Richardson, and as a result has an actual governing record there. Having run and won as a Republican, he does have the ability to take some votes to the Libertarian line which would more than likely come out of Romney’s vote total.
Usually, the Libertarian candidate does take more away from the GOP than he does from the Democrats, but I’m not sure that’s true this year.
People sometimes forget that, like any party, the LP has a left and a right wing. The left wing broke hard for Obama in 2008. So much so, there was a whole “liberaltarian” movement. I bet you haven’t heard much from them lately. Anyway, the LP’s left wing tend to be more cultural libertarians — interested mostly in abortion rights, ending the drug war, gay marriage, etc. Obama hasn’t given them much more than talking points these last three years, and not even many of those. So I suspect they’ll go for Gary Johnson this time around.
The right-leaning Libertarians tend to be more focused on economic and fiscal issues. Ending the Fed, shrinking the welfare state, smashing the EPA, giving us a strong dollar again. Some of them — like me — are even hawkish on national defense. These folks either sat out 2008, voted LP, or even decided to give this Obama fellow a chance. Well, they’re not going to make that mistake again.
Obama has proven himself a statist, through-and-through. Libertarians won’t vote for him a second time, and we certainly won’t stay home and let the greater of two evils win by default.
I like Gary Johnson. I hope he does well. But I suspect he’ll do a lot better with one-time Obama voters than with anyone else.
Nationwide, I’d say Johnson would appeal more to the “Weigelians” (i.e., those who could manage to fit the profile of someone who could ideologically slide from Reason Magazine to the Washington Post and JourOlist with little introspection about the seeming belief system clashes). He could pull more from the left than from the right, because outside of New Mexico, Johnson’s identity isn’t really tethered to the Republican Party.
That’s not the case in New Mexico, where liberaltarians would be more wary of voting for the former GOP boss of the state, while at the same time the fact that Johnson wasn’t some one-term Jesse Ventura-like flash-in-the-pan might make right-leaning libertarians in the state more likely to desert Romney. To them, Johnson is a known quantity who did well enough in office to earn re-election and left as governor on his own terms.
P.S. With regard to November, DaTechGuy has been quoting Sheridan for some time now on his blog, and he has it right, I think: “Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell!”
This American would like to personally than the South and Midwest for leading the fight to save America from the socialist Northeast and West.
Civil War II is underway.
It’s definitely taking on the look of the pre-Civil War era, unfortunately. One of the big problems is that our lefty friends aren’t content with federalism — everything they believe in is a “right” or an “entitlement” that has to apply to all, no exceptions. This is a major reason why they’ll lose big in November — they’re telling the citizens of most states (i.e., the red ones) that they’re not welcome in their own country anymore.
The Obama “collapse” scenario should definitely include Maine and NM.
My age must be showing….but I submit that the following is what ruins Stephen Green’s credibility…..
…”
Stephen Green
You weren’t being obtuse; I was being a jerk.
July 19, 2012 – 10:32 am Link to this Comment | Reply
Stephen Green
To be slightly less flippant, I covered just that question back in May.”
–End Paste.
…..his earlier response to me when I said he was “silly” or something equivalent upon my first reading of his stuff, he called me something like an “educated slut”, or “over-” or “under -”….” -slut”.
I must be mellowing in my advanced years. Sorry.
Fratricide is totally uncool.
In your “Obama Collapse” possibility, you have Obama winning Oregon but losing New Mexico. I think Obama will do less well in New Mexico than in Oregon, so if Obama loses Oregon (unlikely, of course), he will likely lose New Mexico too.
In your scenarios, how many votes do the obama bucks crew get?
I have a strange feeling the turnout in Ohio is going to be unprecedented.
I don’t see Obama losing in Colorado unless he totally collapses. Republicans have down-the-ticket problems. Good chance that two House seats now Repub will go Dem and the Colorado House will join the state Senate in being Dem.
It’s fallout from the past state legislative session & a bungled civil unions measure. Also a problem is several middle of the road incumbent state legislators losing primaries to extremist tea partiers.
Incumbent Congressmen Tipton & Coffman have lackluster image and hoof-in-mouth problem respectively.
But it’s also a long way to November.
Military action in the M-E would certainly play into the election.
Terror events (wether the UN declares them ‘terror’ or not) can/will play into this election as well.
The question remains who.
Who creates the war & who creates the terror events.
What about a real squeaker-269-269 ? It goes to the House, where the vote is by states.
I covered that scenario back in May.
Because the name of the country is the “United States of America”, the State part of that name is often overlooked, but it actually matters in the governmental framework of the Constitution. The Electoral College is an “artifact” in the same way that a single page written Constitution that you can carry in your pocket is an “Artifact”.
Without the electoral college, small states and states with low populations would have no way to counter the power of larger more powerful states. The electoral college works to frame the Federal system of government in a way that helps the States accomplish the goal of working together and sharing power in a just and equitable way while preserving the value of States sovereignty.
To get rid of the Electoral College, you would have to reframe the entire structure of Federal Government and you would have to get the permission of the States to do it. And good luck with that.
A simpler way to understand it is to think of the Presidential Election not as a popular election but as the 50 States themselves voting for President and each State getting a representational weight for their vote based on the States resident population.
How would things work without the Electoral College? One simple answer is that it would look at work like the European Union, which is to say, not very well. In the EU, the larger states overwhelm the rights and the power of those in the smaller states and not very much good ever manages to happen. There really isnt an EU, what there is is France and Germany, which is fine if you are France and Germany but not so fine if you are from Brussels or Poland.
I hope that helps.
I just delete Brutus’s comments as I notice them. He’s a vile prog troll of the most predictable sort.
Something deep down in my gut won’t let me get too confident about O returning to Chicago next year. But something in my gut is also telling me that he could lose big in November.
Rational elections come down to two simple questions: 1.) has the incumbent done an adequate or good job? 2.) will the challenger do any better? The challenger has a better than even chance of winning if a majority mulls over question #2 the longest. O won last time because too many people got stuck on question #1 almost as if Bush had been running for a third term. This time they can’t skip 1 and go to 2 without suffering a little dissonance. But at some point Team O will do everything in its power to help them get there by trying to superimpose Bush on Romney.
Will this be a rational election? My gut is a little too conflicted about that right now.
I don’t know, but the way the economy is going, I don’t what majority in any state would vote for Obama? Things are just too bad out there for any clear-thinking Americans to actually believe that things are better under Obama. I think that if Romney has a good debate performance against Obama, he will win by a lot, just like Ronald Reagan did. When the country’s future is literally hanging in the balance, I believe Americans will do the right thing. Come November, most of the country will be ready for a big change.
The ones that have a majority of mind-numbingly stupid leftism-as-a-religion types, typically in large urban centers that skew state results. CA, NY, NJ, etc.
If CA and/or NY ever come into play, I’m getting married and cranking out a bunch of kids, as there really would be undeniable hope for the future at that point.
Neither’s likely, but I’d actually say New York would be the more likely of the two to at the very least put a scare into the Democrats. Anything north of the Tappan Zee bridge is going Red in November anyway, but even down in the city, the voters went through the current scenario 20 years ago with their own Hope and Change/End of All Racial Disharmony Mayor David Dinkins, and when his four years proved to be a six-murders-a-day flustercluck, actually voted in Rudy Giuliani and (other than the furthest of far left cranks) have never regretted it.
Combine that with Obama’s war on both Wall Street and business and the fact that the NYC area is still dependent economically on both those succeeding, and the race could get tight enough to at least force Obama to burn $$$ on ads in the hyper-expensive New York City TV and print markets. I still wouldn’t be mine or anyone else’s rent money on him losing the state, but it doesn’t seem to have completely gone off the deep end like the big, long state on the other coast.
There are a LOT of people who get all their news exclusively from NPR, NBC, CNN, etc. These folks have certain…gaps…in their knowledge.
There are another batch of people who believe the Obama Administration will take care of them financially. Of course, those folks are getting pretty disillusioned.
Here’s another scenario for you: the election night results unofficially give you a 270-268 win for one candidate. However, when Congress reads the actual votes in January, it turns out that one member of the majority caucus was unfaithful, resulting in an official total of 269-268-1. At this point, the election gets thrown to the House, and all three candidates are valid choices.
One more potential (nightmare) scenario:
Mid Oct. WH address to the nation.
‘My Fellow Americans. It is my duty to inform you that a partial Terror Cell has been broken in the last 24 hours. Made up of members from Al-Quid a, Hamas and representatives from the Mexican and Colombian Drug Cartels. What we have learned in this short time is that these operatives have successfully smuggled Weapons of Mass Destruction into the United States. These WMD’s are said to be Chemical weapons looted from Syria. Biological Weapons bought on the black market. And with a strong possibility of at least one Nuclear Device provided by an unknown South Asian Nation.
With these facts in mind it is my sad duty to declare a State of National Emergency. And postpone the upcoming election until such time as it can be conducted in a safe and secure manner. As the American people deserve……
And so the Great Experiment ends.
…And approximately 1 hour later a joint task force consisting of the 3rd Infantry Regiment and the residents of 8th and I “knocks” on the door of the White House to escort Obama to his impeachment trial.
A couple of things to remember:
1) FedGov doesn’t run any election, the states do. Obama cannot order elections suspended without ordering the military or federal law enforcement to disrupt the voting process.
2) The military and law enforcement swear to, first and foremost, uphold the Constitution. Such an order would never be considered legal and would result in immediate backlash, even among his supporters.
1) An SH-60S or V-22 Osprey can get from Little Creek to DC inside that hour. Let us not leave out NavSpecWarDevGru.
2) Doesn’t mean he won’t try it anyway as a last ditch attempt to retain power.
3) All of the projections contained herein are dependent not only on the existence of elections, but an honest vote count. Neither are guaranteed or likely.
4) Much of our military is being bottled up in the Middle East right now, and there are an awful lot of new Federal paramilitary forces all over the country. Their loyalty to the Constitution is questionable. A friend has one of those as a son-in-law, and this very well armed son-in-law has no qualms about claiming that his unit is not subject to the Constitution. Thanksgiving is an interesting holiday there.
Subotai Bahadur
This only happens if it well and truly looks like the election cannot be rigged enough to cheat out a win by Obama, in which case his declaration will be so boldly political as to incite insurrection even within democrat ranks. Gov. Perdue floated that trial balloon in an off-hand remark and it was the beginning of the end for her. She’s not even running for re-election. It’s a loser play, and everybody knows it, thus it is very unlikely. Should Obama attempt it, even if he’s temporarily successful, he’ll be overthrown in a New York minute.
Who wins the other 7 states? I only count 50 on your maps.
For the #win!
Upper Slobovia is solidly prog. Lower Slobovia is Tea Party central. Dogpatch is a toss up. Jefferson (between CA and OR) is GOP. Chihuahua and Coahuila are Obama. Alberta is for Mitt. Wait… Dogpatch just heard about the infamous commie rant. The Brotherhood of Moonshiners are organixing for Mitt and have invitrd Todd and Sarah to speak at their convention. Game changer. Squeaker for Romney in the Seven States!
I’ve mentioned this before. Nevada will go to Romney. The mormons in Nevada are super, golly, gosh excited about having a fellow mormon in the White House that nothing will stop a Romney win here. All the mormon churches, stakes, and temples are at their battle stations and doing battle for the Mit.
Red and Blue war game maps are big fun, and true as the electoral votes go. I find the three dimensional county red/blue maps to be informative as they clearly show the influence of urbanization in the voting partitions.
The elections for the hard core political wonks go to the county by county mappings, with the question of “which district will flip.” The battle for the presidency starts house to city to county to state to nation. And then there is the logistics while the strategies are cooking. I am guessing that every strong opinion is as good as a vote.
Basically it all comes down to PA and Ohio…with Florida always a bit of a worry.
VA is getting more and more sketchy as highly paid Washington parasites move to Northern Virgina.
God only knows what happened to North Carolina’s senses last go round.
I wouldn’t bother with the joy buzzer. The Secret Service is in a bad mood for some reason, and is just looking for an excuse for some target practice.
No sense of humor those guys.
I heard Manitoba is ready to go Republican this election.
I’ll see you an Obama Collapse and raise you MA, NJ, and NM.
Romney 384
Obama 154
I can see us picking up states such as Maine, Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, and New Mexico giving Romney 390 to Obama’s 148 if his campaign collapses. I think it will happen and I think we will see anywhere from 360-370 EVs for Romney.
Sorry. Not Maryland. Never Maryland. We are lost for ever. Too many have drunk the kool aid here. And if it’s ever close, they just cheat.
The only way that Romney fails to win is through unprecedented election fraud. The Dems normally steal 1-2% of the vote in their strongholds. If they increase this to 5% or more and it carries the battleground states, there should be open disobedience. O lacks legitamacy right now for about 40% of the population and this will increase to the majority if he steals the election. Have not heard this scenario discussed yet.
I doubt there will be any more than the standard margin of fraud this year. There are too many disillusioned D supporters that won’t be doing the leg work required for that kind of thing. A perfect example was the NAACP meeting. The “news” was that they booed Romney, but the buzz was more along the lines of “why didn’t the President show up?”
I’m sure they think they have a surprise up their sleeve, but whatever it is, it’s not that one.
Wargaming the Electoral College? Are Jason Matthews and Christian Leohnard working on a sequel to their Campaign Manager 2008 wargame?
I’m wondering about the effect of all the forest fires on federal controlled land that spread and burned up peoples houses and businesses. Especially since talk about the restriction on the number of roads into federal controlled forest lands has been in effect since the Clinton years?
The food supply has taken a lot of hits from the feds these last three years, corn for mandated fuel, fishing restrictions, fuel costs which directly effects the price of food as well as everything else that gits delivered by truck. Now the drought on top of that.
My take is if Obama can’t get to 50% of the most likely voters before the start of August then he’s toast. The Olympics and the Republican convention will eat up to much of the news cycle after that by the time the September and October push comes around he’ll be at too much of a campaign money advantage compared to Romney’s war chest.
For those of you concerned about the fraudulent vote potential, with Project Vote out there an arm of the Obama campaign and getting federal funding to sign up voters, I have a simple suggestion. Volunteer to work the election. It only takes one day. I will be working a 90+% minority precinct in Ohio and expect to be the only R judge there (as happened in the primary). Sign up now because the Boards’ of Elections just mailed out their judge assignments. Also, there is a shortage of R poll workers in urban areas, in some cases a severe shortage. They cheat when no opposition is around to watch them.
I am going to agree wholeheartedly with “oneman’s opinion.” Kudos to him. Red, blue, purple, EV counts….ugh! Readers, the only way to measurably make a difference for freedom & liberty on November 6, 2012 is to be working at the poll stations. Arrange to be off work that Tuesday. DO IT! Note that many states permit a person to work or volunteer at a station that is NOT one’s own. Thus, do exacly as “oneman’s” encourages: Go work a solidly or leaning liberal voter precinct, don’t work your right-leaning, conservative suburb precinct.
Poll stations are where the battles are won and lost not at the televised debates or a few whistle stop oratorial gaffes. At the poll precincts is where your eyes will be opened like never before if you’ve never worked a poll station. There are moments of sheer highway robbery with liberal and ueber-liberal veteran poll workers (yes, usually paid) who gleefully and sneakily look the other way if they see (in year 2012 for sure) another Obama/Biden voter. THERE ARE COUNTLESS WAYS TO CHEAT, and they do. They have no compunction and they know no one is watching. No one — but perhaps you — would ever know.
The only thing that might hold them in check is a pair of watchful eyes (yours!). So plan now to work a dodgy poll station and be prepared to work 10 solid hours or more. YOU WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE. I guarantee you in those 10+ hours you will see a minimum of 10 – 15 flagrant violations of U.S. electoral and state electoral laws.
The scary thing for those of us who see Pat Buchanan to our Left is that no matter who wins we will have a Council on Foreign Relations globalist in power, determined to betray US sovereignty and pervert our Constitution. We will still have an amoral electorate and a treasonous Congress. A dictator will still be in the White House, signing stacks of unconstitutional executive orders while Roberts & Co. snicker and simper.
The only viable question is, “Where can one go to escape this madness?”