Lies, Damned Lies, and Obama Administration Statistics
Commerce Department: US economy grew at 2.8% annual rate last quarter.
John Crudele: The economy grew at a mere 0.6% rate last quarter, for a grand total of 0.15% growth during the super-swell holiday season.
Or as I call it: Merry effing Christmas.
Crudele’s figures look a lot more honest than Washington’s. Here’s how he figures it:
In Friday’s number the government used 0.4 percent as the rate of inflation. Zero. Point. Four. Percent.
In which country is inflation that low? Certainly not in America. Absolutely not in the last four months of 2011.
The consumer price index, which is put out by the US Census Bureau, had prices up 3 percent for the year.
And the rate of inflation used in calculating the third-quarter 2011 GDP was 2.6 percent; in the first and second quarters, combined, the rate was 2.5 percent; it was 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010.
So how does the Zero-Point-Four-Freakin’ percent sound now?
That’s how Commerce got to the not-very-inspiring 2.8 percent growth it reported last Friday.
Let me put this another way in case you are missing my outrage.
If the inflation figure used in last Friday’s GDP figure had just remained the same as the 2.6 percent rate from the third quarter, Washington would have had to report fourth-quarter annualized growth of just 0.6 percent.
Pathetic.
Another reason to hate statistics. I understand the reasoning that food and fuel should not be used in inflation calculations because of their volatility, but if you’re using inflation as an adjustment factor in calculating economic growth, then it should be the inflation that people are actually paying–it should include as many consumer goods as possible (reality is what we’re looking for, volatility is irrelevant).
So Crudele is really saying not just that the government misstates economic growth, but that the formula used is not even designed to properly state it.
Taking out “volatile” food and gas just doesn’t cut it anymore. A year ago Coke would be on sale 2 cases for $10, now the much rarer sale is 2 for $11. Twelve packs were 2 for $5, now it’s 2 for $6. Tuna would be, at a sale price, $0.50 per can, that’s now doubled. I’m definitely buying much less these days, though my money seems to not last any longer.
Those inflation discrepancies remind me of the “I cannot eat an i-Pad” episode. As long as you don’t eat or drive your car the lower number makes lots of sense…
This is not a bug, its a feature. It lets the Government take a negative and spin it as a positive. From here on out, the expected and predicted emerging wave of inflation can now be touted by the Government as “economic growth”.
Obviously, Stephen …you and John need a refresher course in Obamanomics.
Americans, on average, eat 930 million meals each day. However, the evil people who make $200,000 or more…do more meal eating than those who make less.
So, it is only fair that they give up eating some of their meals. By enforcing this, Obamanomics can save or create meals, be redistributing them to others. All that has to happen, is for the $200,000 makers to buy the food, store the food, cook the food, plate the food…and then have the government come by to take the food away from them.
Similarly, Americans drive somewhere around 30 miles each day. Those making $200,000+ drive more than those who don’t have jobs or cars. The amount of gas created or saved by “redistributing” the use of their cars to “other folks” during the week….so, all that has to happen is for the “rich” to buy their cars, gas up their cars…and have the government come each week and give them to “others” to use.
In this way, the volatility of food and gas would not be a problem and the “rich” would be giving their “fair share” to save and create food and gas for the government to redistribute.
Obamanomics 101, it’s not just for Warren Buffett’s secretary any more.
But there was King Putt last night telling the woman whose engineer husband has been out of work 3 years that her statement was interesting because the economy was turning around or something. I guess everything looks “interesting” from the 18th hole.
FTFY.