North Korea Explodes
There’s trouble in North Korea again — or still.
Artillery shells exchanged. Homes destroyed in the South. Two deaths so far, civilian. China is asking for talks. All this, just days after the revelation, by the North, of a very advanced nuclear enrichment facility. They wanted us to know it was there. And then they started lobbing shells over the border, and making the usual threats.
The last two items are the key to unlocking this particular mystery in Pyongyang — yet another internal power struggle. And it must be a messy one, as the heir apparent is young, inexperienced, and has no discernible power base other than his last name.
First, reveal the plant to make the North look untouchable. “Hey, we’ve got this — guess what else we might have ready to go?” No nation-state has yet to directly attack a nuclear-armed nation-state, after all.
Second, show the rest of your brutal little hermit kingdom that you’ve got the big brass ones, by taking on the South (and the US) with a spectacular show of violent nuttiness.
It’s been done before. It will be done again. The question is: What’s the line in the South, for absorbing attacks before they march on Pyongyang? The other question is: How many more of these power struggles before one of them turns nuclear?
There are no easy answers, and no easy solutions.
With North Korea, there never are.
Stephen, there are very easy solutions. We have already demonstrated what they are.
1)Condemn the building of residences in Yeongpyeong as provocative behavior;
2)Invite President Lee Myung-bak to the White House and if he doesn’t do everything you ask, walk out on him and leave him to eat his dinner alone. This includes trade issues that you didn’t prepare ahead of time.
3)Tell South Korea that if they continue to build up nuclear weapons, they are going to have a time out.
4)Hold multiple and detailed talks with an imposter, it’s good practice in case anyone ever takes you seriously in the future.
5)Thank the UN for its kind consideration in slandering you and your ally for several hours.
6)Come home and have Joe Biden call you an intellectual.
7)Have the lapdog media declare your moves leg tingling.
8)Play golf
That’s insane. How the hell does a man work a vacation into that busy schedule?
Interesting take. How shakey do we know, with what evidence, is the little jerk’s lack of legitamcy or power? I would think that the best power holder would have been chosen by the regime. One that will or can hold the line. He is not the first son but the youngest. Has there been signs that NK’s generals or political elites aren’t buying his ascension?
The question is: What’s the line in the South, for absorbing attacks before they march on Pyongyang?
Pretty far, since marching on Pyongyang gets Seoul blasted amazingly hard by NK artillery.
(Even if we don’t buy near-apocalyptic claims of the number of artillery emplacements in the NK mountains within range, there seems to be no doubt that there are enough to cause an immense amount of damage before they can be silenced – and enough of them, and well hidden and emplaced in rocks, that they can’t be taken out en masse by a preemptive strike.)
Does seem like the South Koreans should have spent the last 50 years figuring out how to find and destroy the North Korean artillery. Intelligence, Precision counter-battery fires, Artillery tracking radars.
take out the leadership (or childish nutter) in the north. ask the Chinese who’s side are they on in public.
Just a minor point of correction: the two dead are apparently SK marines. Doesn’t lessen the pain or the danger of the moment, though.
You were right as of yesterday. Reports this morning say the South Koreans found two more bodies last night. They were civilian construction workers. Added to the two dead South Korean Marines, that brings the known death toll to four.
Send Rodney King, Hanoi Jane, Who-peed Goldberg & Jesse Jackson over there with one way tickets so they won’t have to worry about time constraints while getting things settled.
Good question. Since a North Korea seems to inch ever closer to a workable nuke and if the violence and chaos of a regime collapse are ultimately inevitable, then maybe now is the time.
China, of course, will be a problem. Not because they’re jerks but because they don’t want 10 million North Korean refugees streaming across their border. They will support the status quo for as long as possible and I can’t say as I blame them.
As for North Korean gun emplacements, you can be sure the South has tried its hardest to locate them and will keep quiet about what it knows. It wouldn’t be the first military assault that was preceded by a stealth paratrooper raid. Anybody know about recent prominent North Korean defections? That could be a tip off about what they know.
1). Announce publicly the rules of MAD; any attack on nuclear powers, or nuclear attacks on allies will be met with total destruction. Any objection by a nuclear power is an admission that their arsenal is not defensive in nature and thus is subject to preemptive elimination at any time.
2). Remind everyone that North Korea is well within range of our SSBN’s, any one of which is more than sufficient.
3). Station at least a platoon of US troops in every South Korean population center within artillery range.
4). Let the South blockade the North. Tell China this is a matter between the Koreas and any interference will be viewed in light of (1).
That’s just brilliant, Jeff. Let’s tell China we’ll nuke them if they try to intervene in order to control a failed state on their eastern border. How would you react if China made the same threat to us if Mexico imploded? And, no, that’s not moral equivalence, it’s Statecraft 101.
Not to mention the fact that we can’t be sure how many artillery tubes are aimed at Seoul, where they are, and whether enough can be neutralized to avoid great loss of life in that city.
Of course is would be redundant to point out that your approach risks the lives of thousands (if not hundreds of thousands) of Korean lives, with small risk to Americans.
I don’t doubt it would be a waste of time to point out the questionable moral position of threatening millions of North Korean subjects -who have absolutely no control over their leaders- with nuclear annihilation. Or do you think the Party leaders up North give a damn what happens to the proles?
Tim, above, has mentioned one of the critical elements. Let me summarize them:
-North Korea is a failed state on the verge of a meltdown.
-China doesn’t want to see a meltdown because they don’t want the refugees and the resulting damage to their economy.
-For the same reason, China doesn’t really want ownership of North Korea, due to said economic damage.
-China hates the idea of US/South Korean control of the north, as they consider that their sphere of influence.
Oddly enough, the issues for South Korea are very similar. Actually, nobody wants to see that meltdown happen.
-South Korea would like to re-unite with the north, but South Koreans saw what happened to Germany; it took them 10 years to recover. East Germany was California compared to North Korea.
-South Korea hates the idea of Chinese contol of the north, as they consider that their sphere of influence.
-The North Korean nomenklatura just don’t give a damn, as long as they maintain their power & privilege.
Anyone around the world with half a brain should prefer to avoid re-unification right now, as that would severely impact one of the strongest economic engines on the Pacific Rim.
Despite all the chest-thumping and sarcasm, there’s no easy solution.
South Korea…United States here, since our wimpy president doesn’t know how to behave (or lead for that matter) in this situation, you have the “green light” to beat North Korea and Kim Dung Il into submission. If you need relief supplies…let us know!