Wanderlust
Tablet skeptic Fred Wilson turns into a fan — after using one for a few weeks:
I realized that I had become smitten with it yesterday when I was headed to a place I like to grab a cup of coffee and a bite to eat and read alone before work. When I go to this place, I take out my Google phone and read blogs and occasionally do some email. I wanted to take the iPad with me but decided not to so it could stay at home on the kitchen counter. Then I thought seriously about getting another iPad just for me. I’m not going to do that just yet, but the urge is there. I’ll probably wait for the first Android tablet and get that for my personal use.
So I’ve changed my mind about the iPad and tablet computers. In my initial review, I focused on capabilities. And tablets are stuck between the power and utility of the notebook and the size and features of a smartphone. But they also create a middle place in terms of usability. And that is what I missed in my first day with the iPad. It feels less like a computer than any computing device I’ve owned. It’s easy on me in a way that the other devices are not. So I’m now convinced that tablets will have an important place in our homes and our lives.
My 3G iPad finally shipped today — and it’ll be interesting to see if it instantly becomes a “family device,” the way it did for Wilson.
Traditional tablets suffered from a combination of inadequacies: Low-power/weak battery life; cumbersome UI; delicate/burdensome form factor; expense. Any one of which could be tolerated by the end user, as long as the other two issues were handled well. Netbooks approached solving these, but still couldn’t really handle the low-power issues, because the OS’s were still too hungry. I had a chance to play with a hackintosh netbook last Summer, and it was fun. But it still sucked compared to what was really necessary.
All of this leads to the development path for the iPad. I don’t know if Steve Jobs is truly this visionary, or if he and Apple just positioned themselves to take advantage of the circumstances as they unfolded. But the development of the iPhone and iPhone OS were necessary before the iPad could be rolled out. For a couple of reasons:
1) Apple had to pursue a ground-up rewrite of much of the underpinning OS, in order to make it powerful enough to both give the users what they need (as opposed to what they thought they wanted) and not be so power hungry that it made the experience too short-lived to be worthwhile.
2) They needed to develop a UI that made sense for a smaller form-factor mobile device. And an API that is bullet-proof enough for developers to write apps without taking down the entire system. This isn’t easy. Look at some of the issues that Google is still dealing with wrt Android.
Once Apple had enough groundwork laid with the iPhone OS–in infrastructure to support it, and a developer community (internal as well as external) to take advantage of it–they could take on developing the iPad. They’ve got close to five years of work under their belts in building the OS, understanding how mobile form-factors work and don’t work, hammering out the necessities for the mobile chip sets, etc. They’re in perfect position to make it work, where others have failed before.
The interesting thing to watch from my perspective will be how they enhance the iPad version of the OS. They’ve already done this, and are now dealing with forks in the codebase. iPhone OS 3.2 will only work on the iPad, so the latest OS for the iPhone is currently 3.1.3. OS 4.0 is iPhone-only. I don’t know when, or even if, they’ll merge the different bases. Hopefully, they’ll find a way to roll an OS out that is compatible with both platforms, and relies on internal system checks to enable/disable features. Otherwise, it might get a little messy for the development community. But Apple still needs to be able to roll out features that take advantage of the size and power of the iPad. Playing to the lowest-common-denominator is not adequate. They’ve gotten it so far, as there are features on the iPad that won’t work on the iPhone, simply because of the smaller screen real estate. But they need to be able to do this without causing too many fractures in the development process.
Just some thoughts. I really wanted to go to the developers’ conference in San Francisco. But it sold out before I could scrape the funds together. I’m going to have to watch the videos as they roll out, and catch the technical bloggers as they start to report on their participation. These next couple of years are going to be fascinating to watch. Some paradigms are about to be absolutely shattered, as you and I have discussed. With Apple operating so well at this point, the only real issue I see them facing are potential Justice Department actions. There are rumblings that an investigation has been launched into the iTunes Store, given that Apple pretty much has a de facto monopoly on online music sales. If Apple can keep the dogs off, then there’s no stopping them. Short of an absolute worldwide economic collapse, they’ll be able to ride out any difficulties with the economy. Having a $35 billion war chest gives you lots of options….
Seems like it wasn’t that long ago that MS was investing in Apple simply to have a fig leaf competitor around. My how time flies.