Handicapping the Handicapped
Mary Katharine Ham just nails the problem with President Obama’s new “rally the coalition” video:
In this video, he is Barack Obama. He is the man whose problems are still inherited. He is the man who fights the health insurance companies… whose product he’s requiring that every American buy, battles the big banks… who bankrolled his campaign, and stifles special interests… with whom he meets behind closed doors to hash out deals on legislation. And, he posits, all of this should inspire those who voted for the first time in 2008 to vote again on behalf of all the uninspiring Corzines, Deedses, and Coakleys who will in some unspecified way guarantee the uplifting change at sometime in the unspecifed future that Obama himself has not delivered. Fired up and ready to go!
I finally watched the thing, to see if MK was right — and she was. And Obama’s problem here is twofold. First, the point Ham raised in the graf above: charisma is poor currency. You can’t just stuff it into someone else’s pocket. And there are lots more Corzines, Deedses and Coakleys in need of an infusion before November 2. At least 93 of them, according to the latest RCP poll averages for the House and Senate races. Add another handful if you want to include gubernatorial races.
That’s a whole lot of campaigning between now and 11/02/2010, and time and again Obama has proven that the only person he campaigns for effectively is himself.
Now watch his new video, or at least some of it.
What was that I said about charisma being a poor currency? Even so, Obama appears not to have much of it left. For a “rally the troops” pitch, it doesn’t have a whole lotta hoo-ah. Instead, he comes off as cold and uninspired.
The polls models for off-year elections always included depressed turnout among the young, the poor, and minorities — three groups the Democrats need desperately. But, two things are different this time. 2010 is the first midterm since Obama’s community organizing skills increased the registered voter rolls by 30% — almost entirely youth, poor, and minorities. And since they’re first-time voters, we just don’t know how they’ll turn out in their second election. Worse than the typical Y/P/M voter? Better? Can’t say.
And then there’s the 30% of the electorate who voted in 2004, but not in 2008.* People who had just become disgusted with the choices offered us two Novembers ago, people who had just gotten sick of Washington in general and both parties in particular. A lot of them have become Tea Party people — energized and ready to vote, early and often. But others might still be too disgusted to bother.
The reason I expect the Democrats to get spanked like The Gimp this fall is: The Tea Party is spontaneous and energetic, while the Democrats can’t even make an inspiring YouTube clip to stimulate their base. That’s a hell of a handicap to have in a year when the energy and motivation is all on the other side.
*Yes, there were millions more registered voters in 2008 — almost all of them going for Obama. But the total number of votes cast wasn’t much higher than in 2004. Which means that nearly 30% of the 2004 electorate couldn’t be bothered to pull a lever for Obama or McCain. I’d like to see some numbers on Tea Partyers on how many of them voted in ’04 but not in ’06 or ’08. Because you can pretty much count on every single one of them voting in ’10.
Obama has a certain personality type we have all had to work with or for. He is a constant self promoter. At work these can be very difficult people to work with and even harder to work for as they suck all the oxygen out of the room. I worked with one once and he was my Supervisor on an ROV job. His main qualification was that he really looked good in spotless work duds and his paperwork was immaculate. However the crew, me(ET) and the mechanic could not let him do anything with the vehicle. He would break it or get lost flying it or damage something. The mechanic and I made an agreement between ourselves that we would never let him fly the vehicle because he was such an embarresment and we got tired of fixing it evertime he piloted the vehicle. This guy eventually became the regional VP. Like I said he looked good and his paperwork was immaculate.
Pres. Obama has all the very same personality types of the un-named Supervisor but unlike the Supervisor who actually found his niche in management Obama is clearly over his head. His niche was much lower down the ladder and he made a two or three jump Peter Principle accesion to the White House. It would actually be pretty funny except that He Is The President.
I have very mixed feelings about the Tea Party folks. It’s good to see people all riled up against government excess, but …. then what? My prediction is that the Republicans will get take both houses, and then disappoint like crazy for the next two years.
Again, so then what? I have quite a few friends who are “Tea Partiers” and they all know they want less government spending, less government debt, etc… but when you start hitting them for specifics most of them can’t come up with them. If you ask them how you prune government back and then control its growth in the long run, you get a lot of blank stares. If I had one wish for the Tea Partiers, it would be that all of them dig into some political and economic philosophy. Read both sides and stuff in between – from Marx and Alinsky to Keynes and Hayek and Friedman to Rand and Rothbard. Know not just the what, but the why. Be able to set your congresscritter straight, in detail, and with backup… because I can guarantee you 99% of the folks on Capital Hill don’t have this sort of background.
Scandi,
As a self-professed TP agitator, I share your concerns. I’m really big, in theory, on a third party. But all that would do, I’m afraid, is hand the Dems an even bigger majority this fall, as the Republicans and TP candidates would cancel each other out. Which is a crying shame. Because the Republicans, barring a couple exceptions, are equally as inept, corrupt, and insane.
So, yes, the Pubs will likely take the House in November. And could easily sweep to a full majority in both Houses in 2012, with Obama being kicked to the curb as a one-termer, as well. But what then? Unless the new Republican candidates for this fall are fiscally and economically knowledgeable, and are willing to stick together to form an unbreakable coalition, it’ll be more of the same. Different party, same rathole.
I’ve heard interviews with Bob Ehrlich of MD and a few other ’94 Contract with America Republicans who swept into Congress on high hopes and fresh ideas. There was a block of something like 90 newbies who promised to stick together. Republican leadership picked them off like wolves going after newborn lambs in a flock. Offered leadership positions, choice committee memberships, etc. The coalition pretty much collapsed to nothing in very short order. I really believe if they’d stuck to their guns, they’d have been able to bring about some very effective changes.
That’s pretty much what needs to not happen this time around, if the Republicans take back the House. The new blood needs to make two promises: a) They’ll provide whatever votes necessary to bring Republicans to all the important leadership positions; b) They’ll do everything in their power to tear down the power structures that have put us in the position we’re in today. And that means sticking to their guns on all budgetary matters. Period.
I don’t know if this is possible. But I can dream.
I’m hoping for a gridlock, myself. I’d much prefer such a scenario rather than either party having any real power.
Things are very different from ’94. Not all Tea Partiers are policy wonks. But plenty are. The Constitution is making a come back. That alone is reason to celebrate. Right now the GOP is being tested by the phony financial reform scam. They are resisting but may yet cave in. Some say they won’t filibuster whatever idiot Lord Obama appoints to the Court. To make progress we will have to send home a lot of the GOP leadership and that will take some time. But we are definitely on our way.
It’s easy to run against The Man. But that doesn’t work so well when you are The Man.
Especially not when you’re the most powerful mortal on planet Earth and your only shtick is that The Man is keeping you down.