Say it with me again: Amateurs study strategy, professionals study logistics. With that in mind, I direct your attention to Erick Erickson at Red State, who has what might be the most important report you’ll read between now and Election Day:
One would think the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (”DSCC”) would have a joint fundraising committee with Robin Carnahan, running against Roy Blunt in Missouri. And one would think they would use Barack Obama as the front man for the joint fundraiser.
If one thinks that, one would be wrong.
AdvertisementToday in Missouri, Barack Obama spoke at the fundraiser organized by the joint fundraising committee of the DSCC and sitting United States Senator Claire McCaskill — a woman not up for re-election.
At this event, Robin Carnahan, the 2010 Democratic Senate candidate in Missouri, was no where to be seen.
[SNIP]
Carnahan should be able to do like Rick Perry and run a race against Washington and against the Republicans. Except she can’t. Her party owns Washington. And because her party owns Washington and Barack Obama owns the party, Robin Carnahan is screwed.
Barack Obama knows it. He’s trying to stay away lest political reporters finally start paying attention like the rest of us and realize Barack Obama is exactly what I said he was — Barack Obama is now a social pariah and most Democrats and he know it.
Unprecedented. And that makes it a huge indicator for what might happen next fall.
A couple weeks ago something occurred to me, but I didn’t mention it — because A) I hadn’t looked at enough races, and B) I didn’t want to look like an idiot. OK, I didn’t want to look more idiotic than absolutely necessary. I still haven’t done A), but I’m now willing to go out on a limb and do B).
So here it is: The Republicans won’t just capture the House this fall, but their majority could be as big as the one the Democrats now enjoy.
I’m still not willing to call the Senate for the GOP. Their very-best-case scenario is a 50-50 split, with Joe Biden casting the tie-breaking votes. But if that does happen, you might expect to see enough Democrats voting with the Republicans on the big issues, that Biden won’t be of much use.
But he’s used to that.
Not so outlandish really, if you look at the Cook Political Report he has 6 Dem seats as Lean or Likely GOP pickups. He also (almost) never places incumbents as lean or likely to lose so when you look at the 22 Dem seats in the toss-up category it not just possible, but likely that almost all will be GOP pick-ups. I’d expect in the next few months for most of the 27 seats now in the Lean Dem category to move to toss-up and a large percentage (like what gets you into Harvard) will be pick-ups. Even counting out GOP seats like Kirk (IL), Cao (LA) & Castle (DE) you are already at GOP +52 and there are another 26 seats in the Likely Dem category in D+2 or worse (for Dems) that will likely be more competitive as GOP candidates are identified and begin fundraising in earnest.
So many Tea Readers are focusing on open seats, but miss the biggest key difference between ’94 and ’10, there are 50+ house Dems who were elected in ’06 & ’08 who have always had a tailwind and most are incapable of holding their seats in a headwind environment, especially one approaching Hurricane intensity.
Finally, it is also very telling that the comments the Dem house leadership matches so closely with the false optimism we saw from their counterparts this time in ’06.
Here’s my question: do the Republicans really want to win a majority in 2010?
My logic is this: right now the Democrats’ favorite whinge is that it’s all the Republicans fault. This doesn’t fly because the Dems have such a huge majority in both houses, so they look like idiots.
But. If the GOP does gain at least the House back, the Dems have a better chance of painting them as the bad guys, just saying “no” all the time.
Casey –
Great line from a book I read 20 years ago, but it’s stuck with me. Well, it hasn’t stuck with me so well that I remember it exactly, but here’s a close paraphrase:
“Winning is always desirable. You can sort out the rest of the shit later.”
You may have the right of that, sir.
If they do win, I would love to see some “you magnificent bastard!” gesture along the lines of just shutting down the Department of Education.