Just a Tiny Little Question
October 24th, 2008 - 5:04 am
Let me get this straight. Obama has 150 million bucks, he’s asking for more, he’s outspending McCain on TV by three or four to one, the mood of the country is that Republicans suck, McCain is waging a campaign of almost Dukakis-level lameness, we’re less than two weeks out from the election…
…and Obama still hasn’t sealed the deal?
How do you think the Iranians, Russians, and North Koreans are gauging him right about now?
The good news for him is that even if he loses the popular vote and wins the Presidency by one Electoral vote, the press will tell us he has a mandate.
True, but if there’s a split it’s more likely to go the other way, with McCain losing the popular vote but winning the electoral vote. It would happen for the same reason it happened with Gore–landslide wins in certain high population states and narrow losses in most of the others.
Looking at that poll, don’t you find it a little odd that it shows McCain leading 74-22 among the youth vote. Say what you will about in what numbers they will show up on election day, but does anyone really think that’s even close to accurate? The poll even denotes it with an asterisk, saying they have a small sample size for that age group.
That said, there are four other national tracking polls which give Obama a double-digit lead (and an assortment of others that give him leads outside the margin of error). And three different election projection sites that I visit (including realclearpolitics) project Obama with an EV total somewhere between 350-375 (including in the toss-up states). I don’t know what will happen on Election Day but my question is, what would Obama sealing the deal look like? Does he have to get every tracking poll above 10 points? Get a projection of over 400 EV?
Let me say something somewhat controversial but obvious here
– Barack Obama is a weak candidate.
It almost takes your breath away to hear it said, right? I know, I’m such a heretic, but bear with me here for a second while I explain myself.
Heres another way to look at it is this. Just to stay competitive in the race, Barack Obama has had to enlist the media into being virtual campaign workers slavishly supporting on his campaign with reportage that can at best pass as PR and in concert with a 6 to 1 negative coverage of McCain over Obama. In addition, just to stay in the game against McCain, Obama has also required a 10 to 1 spending advantage.
And bear in mind that even with a significant wind at his back Obama has never really moved beyond the range of ‘margin of error’ in this whole election. The most important thing to keep in mind is that even with every possible advantage stacked in his direction, and heres the key pivot point of my argument
- Obama is only competing against John McCain!
McCain is a candidate who running this campaign with the unique characteristic of having absolutely no political base whatsoever and he’s also unique in having a sitting president in his party who is more reviled than any President in recent memory.
Imagine for a second that any one of the metrics that Obama currently owns were to be switched to a McCain advantage. Not all of them, just any one of them. Let’s take something simple, the 6 to 1 negative press stories. If Obama had to exist in an press environment like the one that McCain/Palin exist in, would the ‘margin of error’ still hold? its highly unlikely that he would. Weve seen case after case where just a small, slight hit in the press has set Obama back on his heels, only to be recovered by extreme efforts on the part of the press, not by the candidate himself.
I’m beginning to suspect that Barack Obama is the Swahili name for “Thomas E. Dewey”.
>>How do you think the Iranians, Russians, and North Koreans are gauging him right about now?
Well, Steve, I’d say they’re shopping for strap-ons.
To: Toshiba Support
From: Varifrank
Subject: Replacement keyboard under warranty
Sirs,
I hereby request a new keyboard for my M9 laptop. On October 24th I was reading a comment on a certain blog when suddenly I found myself compelled to shoot milk out of my nose on right to my new laptop, rendering it useless.
yours truly,
varifrank
Stephen,
In Colorado the Big O is outspending Johnny Mack Seven to One on TV advertising.
as one who has NEVER donated to political campaigns before, and yet has donated 4 times so far to Obama…from a middle-aged, middle class woman, (who does not OWN a louis vitton handbag…so yes, maybe a little jealousy of PIPER, Palin’s CHILD) I will donate MORE over the next two weeks….why? cuz it makes me smile when rich republicans worry about MONEY in campaigns!
Ye gods, nothing like a little context-less blathering in the morning. Almost as enervating as watching CNN.
Ouch, Deb. Check that old lizard brain’s ravings before you hit post.
A candidate is running a campaign on astonishing levels of money. (And there is reason to believe some people have given over and over.) This is after said candidate promised to accept public financing (i.e., a lot less money). Now, this candidate is asking people for just a few dollars more.
This candidate is promising that 95% of Americans will be getting a tax cut if he’s elected. In light of the first paragraph, why would anyone just accept that promise at face value?
“Well, Steve, I’d say they’re shopping for strap-ons.”
And YOU are not showing the proper deference due the Second Coming, little woman. We have your name and you will be duly enrolled in obedience school once I get this whole inaugural over.
Signed,
Nanny B.Obama
President, Impending