If the Southern Baptists aren’t united behind Mike Huckabee, who is for him?
The polling around the primaries can be such a false indicator. The polls keep showing Huckabee gaining “momentum,” yet it seems like Chuck Norris is the only one who seems sold on the guy (however, I do understand that Chuck counts as 400 guys).
I know that no one in the field is standing out right now, but good heavens, where are his supporters? I could be that my daily reads are turning too narrow in the libertarian-ish world, however even the conservative stalwarts over at NRO are pretty damn cool on the guy.
I’m thinking he’ll be towards the bottom in the primaries when push come to shove (praying to Jeebus).
Pay no attention to the polls in Iowa. We have a significant factor at play here that is completely ignored. With the exception of hard core policy wonks who are largely from out of town and the tin foil hat brigade who are from another planet, no one in Iowa is paying any attention to the upcoming caucus. With no intent to be blasphemous here, its Christmas dammit and everyone who actually lives in Iowa has a whole lot more going on in their life right now that standing in a room and raising their hand on Jan 3rd. I know Im a heretic to say so, but the Caucus really isnt that much a part of peoples lives. People in Iowa care if there is a Maid-rite opening soon in their neighborhood, they dont give a flipping heck if Obama is in town and they think “Huckabee” is that movie at the bottom of the remainder bin in the back of Wal-Mart.
There I said it, and I’m glad I did.
I’m betting that come Jan 3rd, the entire picture of who is winning and losing and why will be turned on its head. Remember that 4 years ago, Howard Dean was the presumtive and the same people talking up Huckabee and Obama today were talking about the certain ascendancy of Dean, “The Peoples Friend”.
My point is that using Iowa polling from the pre-caucus period as a predictor of who the nominee will be has never proven particularly valuable. If it wasnt first, it would be totally and completely ignored. All im saying is it might be better and beat the rush by ignoring it now.
Someone commented in my hometown paper that he thought everyone hereabouts must be for Huckabee — this being the Bible Belt and all. I just don’t see it.
In ways that matter, even to Christian-Right types of my acquaintance, Huckabee is more liberal than Giuliani. Sure Huck is more” right” on abortion, but even the Bible-thumpers I know have other issues they consider at least as important, if not more so.