So far, things are looking pretty good….for the Japanese. Their initial air attack has eliminated all by a handful of fighters. And the assembled IJN battleships and heavy cruisers are waiting for the naval air arm to flush the USN battle fleet from its harbor before sinking it. Then they’ll turn their guns on the ground forces and soften them up before the six divisions of infantry and Special Naval Landing Forces (SNLF) conduct the invasion.
The US carriers are too far from their base to provide any support.
I would wonder how capable the Japanese logistics would have in that instance. If the Islands were on the verge of being lost, all oil reserves there destroyed(defenders would surely see to that), forcing the Japanese to extend supply lines all the way from the south-western Pacific. After that, it’s just a matter of time before American production overwhelms the Pacific Islands, much as historical.
The vehicle being used for the test is Victory Games mega-game Pacific War (’85). It has extensive considerations for logistics. And, according to the rules, it can be supported.
At the start of the war, the Japanese merchant fleet was rather extensive. Our submarine warfare against it did not begin to have a significant impact until ’43, when the USN FINALLY got a decent torpedo for the submarines.
If they grand strategy is to focus on the HIs first and then work their way south to the Southern Resource Area, it could work.
However, I suspect that the most significant impact, which cannot be tested effectively, in this vehicle, is the affect it would have on the Battle of the North Atlantic.
If the HIs fall, the West Coast becomes vulnerable to IJN submarine warfare, like the Japanese islands became to US later in the war.
This would draw assets to protect the US merchant fleet in the Pacific from the Atlantic. The Nazis might have succeeded in throttling England. What then?
Don’t forget Chuck, the Battle of Britian was over before Dec. 7, 1941. Hitler was not in a position to invade GB, he was busy grinding up his army in Russia. A successful invasion of Hawaii would have added a year to the war, that is it.
FWIW, the attack on Pearl Harbor was not really all that successful. There were about 4-6 ships actually destroyed, none state of the art, and the 1000+ men lost & maimed were easily replaced — not that I want to denigrate those brave men in any way, our nation is poorer for their loss.
Today is Pearl Harbor Day. This is the battleship U.S.S. Arizona in the 1930s: And this is the U.S.S. Arizona and 1177 of her crew today: It would behoove our enemies — actual and potential — to realize that when the United States went to w…
“Don’t forget Chuck, the Battle of Britian was over before Dec. 7, 1941.” — rbj
I was talking about the Battle of the North Atlantic. That went on for quite some time and could still have throttled England. If it had not been for our naval presence in the area, the Germans would have run rampant through the convoys.
“Several of the battleships “sunk” at Pearl Harbor were later waiting for the Japanese Fleet at Surigao in the Phillipines for some Wagnerian payback…” — richard mcenroe
Certainly if the Japanese had succeeded at seizing the HIs.
“The strange thing is that all the AIRCRAFT CARRIERS were out to sea at the time…” –spurwing plover
Maybe not too strange.
Saratoga was heading for San Diego for a modification.
Lexington and Enterprise were at sea, not too far away from each other. I’m not sure what their mission was, but it looks like they were far enough apart to have been playing force-on-force wargames against each other.
I believe that occurred in 1941.
Not the link in question, Matt.
I guess history has now shown that Adolf was the glue that held Europe together. It’s been chaos ever since that illegal war removed him from power.
TO: Stephen Green
RE: Another Alternative
I’ve been looking into this myself, as a result of a discussion with Vox Day.
I’m currently working out a battle plan for the Imperial Japanese Navy to not just bomb Pearl Harbor, but to actually invade the Hawaiian Islands.
HERE….is the methodology.
So far, things are looking pretty good….for the Japanese. Their initial air attack has eliminated all by a handful of fighters. And the assembled IJN battleships and heavy cruisers are waiting for the naval air arm to flush the USN battle fleet from its harbor before sinking it. Then they’ll turn their guns on the ground forces and soften them up before the six divisions of infantry and Special Naval Landing Forces (SNLF) conduct the invasion.
The US carriers are too far from their base to provide any support.
Think of the consequences…..
Regards,
Chuck(le)
I would wonder how capable the Japanese logistics would have in that instance. If the Islands were on the verge of being lost, all oil reserves there destroyed(defenders would surely see to that), forcing the Japanese to extend supply lines all the way from the south-western Pacific. After that, it’s just a matter of time before American production overwhelms the Pacific Islands, much as historical.
TO: Paul
RE: Japanese Logistics Capabilities
The vehicle being used for the test is Victory Games mega-game Pacific War (’85). It has extensive considerations for logistics. And, according to the rules, it can be supported.
At the start of the war, the Japanese merchant fleet was rather extensive. Our submarine warfare against it did not begin to have a significant impact until ’43, when the USN FINALLY got a decent torpedo for the submarines.
If they grand strategy is to focus on the HIs first and then work their way south to the Southern Resource Area, it could work.
However, I suspect that the most significant impact, which cannot be tested effectively, in this vehicle, is the affect it would have on the Battle of the North Atlantic.
If the HIs fall, the West Coast becomes vulnerable to IJN submarine warfare, like the Japanese islands became to US later in the war.
This would draw assets to protect the US merchant fleet in the Pacific from the Atlantic. The Nazis might have succeeded in throttling England. What then?
Regards,
Chuck(le)
Don’t forget Chuck, the Battle of Britian was over before Dec. 7, 1941. Hitler was not in a position to invade GB, he was busy grinding up his army in Russia. A successful invasion of Hawaii would have added a year to the war, that is it.
FWIW, the attack on Pearl Harbor was not really all that successful. There were about 4-6 ships actually destroyed, none state of the art, and the 1000+ men lost & maimed were easily replaced — not that I want to denigrate those brave men in any way, our nation is poorer for their loss.
Pearl Harbor, and a Lesson – 2005 Edition
Today is Pearl Harbor Day. This is the battleship U.S.S. Arizona in the 1930s: And this is the U.S.S. Arizona and 1177 of her crew today: It would behoove our enemies — actual and potential — to realize that when the United States went to w…
TO: rbj
RE: Which Battle?
“Don’t forget Chuck, the Battle of Britian was over before Dec. 7, 1941.” — rbj
I was talking about the Battle of the North Atlantic. That went on for quite some time and could still have throttled England. If it had not been for our naval presence in the area, the Germans would have run rampant through the convoys.
Regards,
Chuck(le)
Chuck:
Harry Turtledove beat you to this particular What If scenario:
Days of Infamy
and
End of the Beginning
Pretty good reads, the both of them.
Chuck-
Feed “pearl harbor done right” to google groups and look for the post by Douglas Muir. It’s a decent read.
Several of the battleships “sunk” at Pearl Harbor were later waiting for the Japanese Fleet at Surigao in the Phillipines for some Wagnerian payback…
when it rains…
Wow, a big day at casa pereira… one site linked off of IMAO and another site linked off of Vodkapundit. Can our server handle the hits?
…
TO: ak47pundit
RE: Great Minds….
“Harry Turtledove beat you to this particular What If scenario:” — ak47pundit
…you know the rest.
Regards,
Chuck(le)
TO: rosignol
RE: Pearl Harbor Done Right
Nice piece of alternate history writing.
However, I’m going for “Climb Mount Fuji”.
And, there is a chance that Halsey could detect and attack either the battleship group, carrier group or invasion group, in this situation.
On the other hand, there’s a better chance that the IJN will find the USN carriers at sea and attack them, first.
Either way, unless there is a “Miracle at Midway” situation, the IJN stands good chance of carrying out the invasion of the HIs.
Regards,
Chuck(le)
TO: richard mcenroe
RE: Maybe Not
“Several of the battleships “sunk” at Pearl Harbor were later waiting for the Japanese Fleet at Surigao in the Phillipines for some Wagnerian payback…” — richard mcenroe
Certainly if the Japanese had succeeded at seizing the HIs.
Regards,
Chuck(le)
The strange thing is that all the AIRCRAFT CARRIERS were out to sea at the time including the one which my late father was on the USS LEXINGTON
TO: spurwing plover
RE: All At Once
“The strange thing is that all the AIRCRAFT CARRIERS were out to sea at the time…” –spurwing plover
Maybe not too strange.
Saratoga was heading for San Diego for a modification.
Lexington and Enterprise were at sea, not too far away from each other. I’m not sure what their mission was, but it looks like they were far enough apart to have been playing force-on-force wargames against each other.
Regards,
Chuck(le)