The Betting Line
October 26th, 2004 - 10:14 pm
People who put their money where their mouths are draw the map like this:
That’s the first time I recall seeing bettors call New Mexico for Bush. However, that could just be a quirk – bids jumped by 16 points on Tuesday.
I pray to God every day that the election will be so decisive. I’m much less concerned now about who wins than I am about the margin of victory. In other words, I think I’d take a Kerry landslide over a Bush squeaker.
Jeff,
I hear you. I really, really, really don’t want a Kerry Presidency. But a big part of me would prefer a 60/40 split for Kerry to a 48.099-Bush 48.05-Kerry score.
That’s saying a lot too, since I absolultely can’t stand all things Kerry.
Strange days.
All your gaming needs right here:
http://geekmedia.org/tradesports/
I think that’s pretty close. Though I wouldn’t be suprised if Bush wins Minnesota and possibly Michigan.
Based on this scenario, a FL flip for Kerry gets us to 269-269. Won’t that be a hoot.
On another election note, does anyone know what’s going on with the two latest polls for Hawaii? Bush up by less than a percent. But this is after Kerry was up but double digits a month back and Gore won by 18 with Nader picking up another 5. Anomaly? Really bad/biased polling? Or something else entirely?
Rasmussen now has Bush up by 4 in Ohio, and tied in Fla. Let’s hope its not the nightmare everyone is predicing. I still think its total tackiness to be using Clinton now.
your map looks way toooooo good to be true. i am getting nervous!
Election night dynamics might play a last-minute role.
Let’s say that, as some polls suggest, Bush wins Florida decisively and the networks call it early.
Maybe Michigan goes red, too. Possibly Minnesota. They’re both close. But Florida alone would suppress Democrat turnout west of the Mississippi. It could move Oregon into the Bush column. Hawaii, too. However impressive the electoral map is, the district-by-district map would be stunning: a nation submerged in a tide of Bush red.
Such a map would derail Democrat attempts to litigate a Kerry victory. That image would make a stronger argument than a thousand highly-paid Democrat lawyers.
It all starts with Florida.
The Geekmedia site had New Hampshire wavering around in the undecided bucket for awhile before finally settling back in for Kerry. The opposite was true for Wisconsin. Ohio is still “too close”, but trending Bush.
Apart from the whack job that dropped a 10000 unit contract a couple weeks ago, the general trend has been away from Kerry for some time now.
I still think it’ll take 325-350 EV for a lawsuit-proof election.
Does any state other than Florida straddle time zones? The main thing is for any voter (and particularly in Florida, where I think they learned this lesson) not to let ANY news broadcasts affect how they vote. Only after they vote should they turn the TV or radio on–and ideally not until polls have closed in at least California, if not Hawaii.
In short, we should do what we have no intention of doing: voting, going to bed early, and waking up to find out what’s what.
Well, I need four more points. And I’ll do better if Michigan goes for Bush (yeah, I know). I think the only thing that’ll actually prevent that is voter fraud. Which I’m pretty sure is happening, to a great extent.
All things being equal, New Mexico should go to Bush. All signs here point to such an outcome. The thing to watch is if itis even remotely close, the Dems of NM will ‘find’ a certain number of ‘uncounted’ votes in some remote part of the state, similar to their tactics in 2000. 500 votes in a ballot box were discovered the next morning (all voting for Algore) in San Juan Co. (I believe) and Gore took NM by +/- 366 votes.
So don’t hold your breath.
However, that could just be a quirk – bids jumped by 16 points on Tuesday.
That’s the trouble with TradeSports — it’s gameable, and has been gamed repeatedly in the last few weeks. You can’t tell from day to day whether the standings are legitimate.
The Iowa Electronic Markets have safeguards against deliberate manipulation.
Does any state other than Florida straddle time zones?
Several, but of those only Michigan — a portion of the Upper Peninsula is in CST, the rest in EST — might be worth watching.
I suppose it’s possible a heartbreakingly close count in Michigan could be affected the same way Florida was in 2000. There are voters up there, after all. One or two.
Good point Attila Girl. Indiana has weird time zones going on, based mostly on NW Indy wantoing to be in the same timezone as Chicago. I can’t remember what it’ll be like on Nov. 2, after DST. Also Oregon’s SE corner is in Mountain time.
I guess we need to remind the MSM about Florida’s situation. Sigh, didn’t the big networks used to be able to get basic facts right?
lyle said: “But Florida alone would suppress Democrat turnout west of the Mississippi. It could move Oregon into the Bush column.”
Probably not, though, as many Oregon voters will have voted before election day. I voted more than a week ago. Oregon is on the all-mail ballot system. I received my ballot on October 16, filled it out and returned it (by mail) on Oct. 19. Most people at my workplace have likewise voted already.
Kai,
I’d missed the fact that Oregon has all-mail balloting. You’re right, it invalidates my point. Part of it, anyway.
Kai > All mail voting?? Even on election day?
interesting…
Still too fucking close. Adding in Penn/NJ/Minn would help me sleep easier.
Daily Election Roundup
With less than a week to go before the election, the race is still far too close to call, both in the popular vote numbers and in the Electoral College. Moreover, if an ABC News poll is accurate, nine percent of the electorate has already cast its vot…
Idaho is split between two time zones, too, but who cares? (besides Clayton Cramer) Both parts are going to vote strongly for Bush, no matter what any talking heads on TV say.
Isn’t it ironic that the South is the stronghold of the party of Lincoln. As that great American Yakov Smirnoff would say, “Is this a great country or what?”
PacRim Jim
That doesn’t surprise me like Bush doing the liberal thing of nation-building in Iraq and the conservatives support him and the libs want to abandon it.
You can’t make this stuff up…
Don’t paint NH blue just yet. Franklin-Pierce and Suffolk Polls are hardly ever right. ARG, liberal leaning has GWB up by 1. Just because we are neighbors of MA doesn’t make much difference when it comes to politics. There is a reason why this State has no State Income Tax.
Bush is still very close in Hawaii, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New Hampshire. And, to be fair, Kerry still has a shot of taking Florida, Wisconsin, and New Mexico (though I seriously doubt Kerry will take Ohio at this point). If Bush goes to Honolulu – well, that would be very interesting. I think he should schedule a surprise trip. Or, maybe go to Iraq this upcoming weekend.
I want Kerry to be buried. I don’t care how many weeks it takes. If Bush wins a majority in the EC, I don’t care the margin. If Kerry and his assholes want to argue that Bush “stole” another election, let ‘em. Just so long as Bush comes out on top, I’ll be all right.
All this gets so stressful! I like the map! The MSM keeps me thinking this will be a nailbiter. But then my gut says…NO WAY AMERICA PUTS A COMMIE SYMPATHIZER IN THE WHITEHOUSE…NO FRICKIN WAY!
Rep Rocker: Where were YOU 1992-2000?
THE TRADESPORTS ELECTORAL MAP
Conveniently presented here. I would still like to get Minnesota, though. Call me greedy….
Folks, what is amazing is that we are even talking about Minnesota. Remember, Dukakis carried Minnesota in that famous election (er, landslide). Minnesota has been liberal for eons. It is great to see the liberal retreat, no matter how slowly it occurs. Unfortunately, I live in Illinois (corruption central) now instead of the Tundra…..
Tommy D – Nother beer please!
296-242 Bush is what I got when I spreadsheeted Jay Cost’s averaged battleground state polls from earlier this week. Maybe the punters are reading him? (http://jaycost.blogspot.com/)My spreadsheet based on Cost’s figures is the same as the map – exactly. Cost is a statistician and a Republican and he works out the probabilty that one candidate or the other is leading in a particular state. Ohio was Bush’s weakest with an 87% confidence level he was ahead. FL, even NM, were all 90%+. Like wise PA,NH, MI,MN were all in the 90s for Kerry. That all may change, but his method really takes the ambiguity out of it.