Counting Down?
Mike Jericho is pretty sure Osama bin Laden is dead – but that doesn’t stop him from worrying:
But [al Qaeda number two man Abu Musab al] Zawahiri could simply side-step this, if he chose to, and with a single move restore his credibility and influence.
To do so, he would have to make a significant strike against the very belly of the infidel. Something public, something severe, with very serious repercussions… all of the things he has become known for.
I don’t pretend to know what that might be. It could be anything, but experience dictates that it will most likely be either inside the United States or a Coalition country, and it will come against a significant symbol of American power; be it economic, military or political.
Read the whole thing.
If there’s another attack, it won’t be in the US before election day. The last thing the terrorists would want is the campaign knocked out of the headlines and George W. Bush on TV every night addressing a nation united against an outside enemy.
The most damaging thing that AQ could do would be making attacks on election day itself. It wouldn’t necessarily help Bush, but it could very well throw the election into chaos and seriously taint the eventual winner’s legitimacy if a complete vote count couldn’t be obtained.
That’s assuming they have the power left to pull off something like that through, which is pretty iffy. However at this point, I’m not putting anything out of the realm of possibility. Bush could walk to 325 EV in a relatively uncontested election, or the Democrats could win by 3 EV with recounts going on in 5 states…with Kerry assassinated by Al Qaeda and President-Elect John Edwards wading through lawsuits and rioting to get to Inauguration Day.
Whatever happens, it’ll be darn interesting.
Why on earth would AQ WANT to do anything at this point?! Think for a moment… the less people feel that the threat of international terrorism is real, the more likely they are to pull the lever for Senator Kerry, the AQ candidate of choice. Any attack would shatter the phony “calm” that has grown up, and probably also instantly elect Bush.
Were something to happen to the Supreme Court between Nov 2 and the inevitable lawsuits with a close election, would recess appointments apply?
BTW I belive AQ wants us all dead no matter who our President is.
It worked in Madrid.
What happens here depends on how well AQ understands the American psyche.
Ian Wood,
re “What happens here depends on how well AQ understands the American psyche.”, it also depends on whether AQ believes that a Bush presidency or a Kerry presidency would serve their needs better. I’m only being a little bit snarky; it’s never been clear to me whether AQ would prefer bush or kerry. The basic argument for them preferring Bush, which I’m sure everyone has heard but will repeat anyway, is that a) AQ (&Jihadists in general) is a tiny percentage of the total world Islamic population b) Bush is good for recruitment if they want to increase their numbers an order of magnitude or two. The only reason I don’t believe this for sure is that I know of no particular evidence that it is true, or that it is not true.
There weren’t any major attacks before the Australian elections. That means one of two things: either AQ is unable to launch major operations, or else they understand Aussies as well as they understand Spainiards.
Either conclusion gives me hope that we’ll not see any attacks in the US in the near future.
You’ve got the names mixed up. It’s Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and Ayman al-Zawahiri, not Abu Musab al Zawahiri.