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VodkaPundit

There Oughta Be a Blog

August 29th, 2004 - 11:16 pm

Aaron Hood sends me emails so nice, I wish he’d start his own blog already:

Politics, like murder trials, have been turned into sports. At the end of the day, it’s all about who won, and who lost, with little regard for their message, or the public in which it affects.

On another topic, John Kerry is facing a much larger problem. I have not seen this covered yet, but it will if George W Bush wins.

Bill Salmon had a very good piece in U.S. News and World Report, where he chronicled how John Kerry came back and won the democratic primary. Reading the article, it revealed more about how Howard Dean lost.

Inside pollsters have a numbering system, of 1-5. Your 1′s put bumper stickers on their cars, signs in their yards, and try to convince their friends to vote for their guy. 2′s answer in telephone polls they will vote for you, but either may change their mind, or not vote at all. 3′s are the undecideds, and the 4′s and 5′s are your opponents 2′s and 1′s.

We have been led to believe, that this election is about a handful of 3′s in Ohio. I doubt it.

Howard Dean lost because his camp highly overestimated the number of 1′s he had. That is why you saw a huge shift in the polls in the last week before the Iowa Caucuses (when the 2′s REALLY make up their minds), and it’s why Howard Dean, who once had a double digit lead in the polls, came in 3rd place.

John Kerry now faces this battle. The polls have stated it’s a draw in Bush Vs Kerry.However, when you poll people who would vote for Bush, 75% strongly support him(1′s) and 25% somewhat support him(2′s). For John Kerry, its 50%-50%. So, what are we going to be talking about on November 3rd and the days after if Bush wins? The same thing we talked about in 2002 and in 2000. VOTER TURNOUT!

In the TCS column of mine Aaron was replying to, I made a throwaway joke about “die-hard Kerry supporters” being an oxymoron. As Aaron shows, that sad fact could very well cost him the election.

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