Shop Talk
Larry Sabato handicaps Kerry’s possible veep choices:
…in the Crystal Ball’s totally independent view, Kerry is best left with five strong VEEP candidates, plus a wild-card choice:
Evan Bayh
John Breaux
Dick Gephardt
Jay Rockefeller
Bill Richardson
Sam Nunn (WILD CARD)Sophisticated polling is needed to determine which ones have the best chance to guarantee a Kerry victory in their states. Richardson is a sure bet for New Mexico, but the prize is small and would likely go Democratic anyway. Could he also carry Arizona? Jay Rockefeller, we’d bet, could tip West Virginia to Kerry. John Breaux in Louisiana and Evan Bayh in Indiana have tougher tasks in their very pro-Bush states–but what a prize either state would be! How would Bush recover? Dick Gephardt has never run statewide in a Missouri election, so Kerry would be right to demand some Show-Me evidence that the congressman could perform the trick. If Gephardt can pass the test, he would be golden for this ticket.
The wild card would make for a fascinating race in the Peach State. At one time the king of Georgia’s political mountain, Nunn has been out of the news since leaving the Senate in early 1997. Does he still have the old magic? Could he force Bush to spend real money in a dark-Red state? Would his encyclopedic knowledge of foreign and domestic policy–not to mention the national security issue–outweigh his vote against the 1991 Persian Gulf War (reinforcing Kerry’s own anti-war vote)?
Read the whole thing.
I repeat (with additions) what I said back in Feburary:
1. Bush couldn’t lose Georgia even if he were caught in bed with the proverbial dead girl or live boy. Nunn is ancient history these days. I like Sabato a lot, but he’s off his rocker on this one.
2. Evan Bayh is a slam-dunk for Kerry. My only caveat to that would be the (legitimate) worry of running two sitting senators on the same ticket.
My fellow Georgian is correct. Nunn’s a nonentity in the state now and Bush will win here no matter what.
Evan Bayh won’t get the nod because the NOW & NARAL gangs won’t stand for it.
I still think Max Cleland will be the choice. It won’t gain anything for Kerry but, then again, Kerry hasn’t run a very competent campaign up to this point anyway so it fits.
The potential VP is the last interesting thing going for Kerry? Sad state of affairs. Of course, this is assuming the Dems don’t “Torch” him before or during the convention. They’re still referring to him as the “presumptive nominee”.
Just for giggles I’ll toss Dean back into the mix. That buyer’s remorse is looking bigger and bigger, and with Dean as VP they get the best of both worlds. Loudmouth firebrand on the news everyday without the liability of having him as the front man on the ticket. Dean has said no previously, but
that spotlight is a distant memory and he did seem to like it an awful lot…
More importantly, instapundit just came out strongly and directly for dropping Cheney in favor of Condi Rice. This can’t possibly be a bad thing, and the GOP has got to be hearing the growing drumbeat. Make it happen guys!
What? Dick Durbin didn’t make the list? That sure doesn’t jibe with the Chicago local news stations this weekend…
I wish Bush would add Guiliani to the ticket. It’s been argued the anti-abortion bloc would veto him because he’s pro-choice, but no one has been more wrapped in the American flag since 9-11 than Guiliani, so I don’t think they would dare.
Condi would be great, but capital-F feminists won’t vote Bush even if he has a woman on the ticket, and blacks won’t vote Bush because he has a black on the ticket, and small-f white feminists (like me) won’t pick our candidate just for that reason when so much is at stake. So Condi is good for herself but her symbolic value is overrated. I’d rather see her as Sec State.
I would add another name to the list: Rep. Harold Ford Jr. of Tennesee. He’s from the rational wing of the Democratic party so he would bring ideological and regional balance to the ticket.
He would not help Kerry win any southern state, but he could be used to maximize black turnout in states like Pensylvania, Michigan, Ohio, and Missouri.
Rockefeller? No way.
Tony Snow caught him out earlier this year. Too much fodder.
Ford is a good choice.
Besides the NOW/NARAL objection, Bayh has been too big a supporter on Bush’s war on terror to be willing to stomach Kerry’s return to Clinton’s “enforcement” model or his groveling to the UN. He’ll never accept the nomination.
Richardson, besides locking up New Mexico, will help in other areas where there are heavy hispanic populations (or so he’ll think) plus is history as a diplomat will dovetail with Kerry’s “more inclusive” diplomatic ploy.
Let’s not kid ourselves, no VP ever made a difference.
What? No McCain?
Please, please, please….let it be McCain. I’m tired of him around here.
Or maybe it could be our Janet-Reno-Minni-Me Governor, Janet Napolitano.
Either would eliminate horrible political voices here in AZ.
All the blather about Kerry choosing McCain for VP made me wonder if it wouldn’t be fun to at least suggest — from a “highly placed source” with a straight face and a deadpan tone on a national show like Sean Hannity’s — that Shrub was considering dumping Cheney for … Zell Miller.
Kerry’s House of Ketchup #10
Kerry speaks. Sen. Kerry’s bad luck continues. He tried to critique President Bush’s education policies only to be upstaged…
Kerry’s House of Ketchup #10
Kerry speaks. Sen. Kerry’s bad luck continues. He tried to critique President Bush’s education policies only to be upstaged…