Shop Talk

Larry Sabato handicaps Kerry’s possible veep choices:

…in the Crystal Ball’s totally independent view, Kerry is best left with five strong VEEP candidates, plus a wild-card choice:

Evan Bayh
John Breaux
Dick Gephardt
Jay Rockefeller
Bill Richardson
Sam Nunn (WILD CARD)

Sophisticated polling is needed to determine which ones have the best chance to guarantee a Kerry victory in their states. Richardson is a sure bet for New Mexico, but the prize is small and would likely go Democratic anyway. Could he also carry Arizona? Jay Rockefeller, we’d bet, could tip West Virginia to Kerry. John Breaux in Louisiana and Evan Bayh in Indiana have tougher tasks in their very pro-Bush states–but what a prize either state would be! How would Bush recover? Dick Gephardt has never run statewide in a Missouri election, so Kerry would be right to demand some Show-Me evidence that the congressman could perform the trick. If Gephardt can pass the test, he would be golden for this ticket.

The wild card would make for a fascinating race in the Peach State. At one time the king of Georgia’s political mountain, Nunn has been out of the news since leaving the Senate in early 1997. Does he still have the old magic? Could he force Bush to spend real money in a dark-Red state? Would his encyclopedic knowledge of foreign and domestic policy–not to mention the national security issue–outweigh his vote against the 1991 Persian Gulf War (reinforcing Kerry’s own anti-war vote)?

Read the whole thing.