Good Questions
Mark Steyn worries over the pace of the war:
Oh, to be sure, there’ve been some useful bits of intelligence co-operation, and London and Washington have frozen the bank accounts of the dodgier Canadian charities. Two weeks ago, President Bush scored remarkable double victories over Tom Daschle’s Senate Democrats and the French Security Council veto. But Senator Daschle and the French are not the enemy; they’re just speed bumps on the way to the enemy, and both ought to have been receding into the distance in the rear-view mirror a long time ago. Instead, it’s the war that keeps getting deferred, to the point where it’s beginning to look like the Bush version of the Soviets’ endlessly rolled-over Five Year Plans.
Sitzkrieg anyone?
Okay, I’m not that worried. Not yet, anyway. But the troublesome question is, where are the troops? I figured by this point, we’d have three divisions of armor, mechanized infantry, and Marines in Kuwait. The 101st, I figured, would be poised at Incirlik. Instead, we have reports that a mere 8,000 troops are in Kuwait — and most of the increase (from the usual 4,000) is in headquarters and support, not in combat forces. If we need to be ready to go shortly after December 8 and these numbers are true, then we simply can’t be ready in time.
If the deadline slips, Saddam and his terror cronies will be emboldened, what little international support we have will erode, and the period of good fighting weather will be over.
It’s true that we have much equipment pre-positioned around the Middle East. It’s also true that we won’t need nearly as large a force. But neither fact changes the third fact that inspections minus the threat of immediate reatliation make war more likely, not less, and also puts some doubt into the outcome.
So I ask: Where are the soldiers, sailors, and airmen to win this war?
And I ask another question: Is Bush II making the same mistake as Bush I, hoping Saddam will be killed in an uprising?
I haven’t given up faith yet, but I am starting to wonder.
FOX reported that five planeloads of soldiers went through Cyprus the other day–same day most of the UN turkeys were arriving…
If true, I wonder if it was a planned thing…almost like telling Blix et al., “do your job, because we won’t hesitate to do ours.”
Silflay Hraka posted a link to this on 11/4. 11/3 plus 23 days = Nov. 29th at the earliest, or Dec. 6 at the lastest. Hmmm, that’s right before Dec. 8th isn’t it? What a coincidence!!
Thanks, Jeff. I feel better now.
I think logistically the actual soldiers, airmen, and sailors are probably the easiest to move around. We have been stockpiling supplys and other goodies for a while. Extended troop deployment is much more expensive and harder to sustain, while supply dumps and such don’t require much upkeep. And as noted above, troop movement has already started.
I’d be betting more on early January, myself. Until I read an article on the British participation, I’d been favoring the Dec. 8th date as well. Ark Royal and Ocean are in the shop. Ark Royal is getting maintenance done following her Med criuse. Their big-phib, HMS Ocean, is doing a longer bit of work, and won’t be ready until the beginning of the year. On the other hand, this could be good old-fashoned dezinformastyia. We don’t really need an extra pocket carrier, and there’s other ways of getting a Royal Marine Commando into the area. The British unit we’re going to need will be the elements of their 1st Armoured Division that’s getting ready to ship from Germany. (7th Amoured Bde, helos, and extra artillery) I’ll have to dig up the article I read on it.
as somebody on tv mentioned: us doesn’t want to create a pre-emptive target for saddam to launch scuds at, where we’d have to fight before we might be fully, completely ready (as in during full moon, rather than preferred new moon..)
planes a la tom clancy can move a hell of a lot of people very freaking fast, and the US gov owns alot of transports, and can requisition others if need be…
so expect a crescendo of planes, as more and more people end up in the middle east…
Ah, Steven, Steven, calm down, have a drink. GWB is following his own timetable, not anyone else’s. You get all riled up, and look what happens. Yesterday the command staff of the 1st MEF left Camp Pendleton for Baghdad, er, “the Persian Gulf” and today the grunts started moving out. Putin is pretty much on board, and the band’s about to play. GWB’s big responsibility here is to bring as many back as possible. Anyone know what the temperature in the south of Iraq is today?
Jack, I said twice that I wasn’t that worried.
And please learn to spell my name.
Stephen,
As I’ve said before, Dubya is not only smarter than his opponents think, he’s smarter than his proponents think.
I have to keep reminding myself, though.
He’s just letting everybody talk and talk, and get themselves all worked up, and convince themselves and everybody else that it ain’t gonna happen. And then one day (soon!) the hammer’s gonna drop.
When we least expect it. About 100 hours later, the whole world will be standing around with their d*cks in their hands, saying “Whut hoppened!” And “Jeesh, is that all there is?”
two things: first, this begins to border on the olde prior restraint question of reporting troop movements. loose lips etc.
second, and most importantly, remember the rope a dope strategy you oh so correctly laid out and that has been realized over the past seven months? have faith. the pieces are coming into place.
I drive past a major east-west railline every day to work, and I can assure that for the last two weeks, I have yet to miss a train loaded with tanks, Bradleys, arty, Stinger-Humvees, and logistics vehicles in desert camo moving east.
It’s coming. This kind of mobilization is expensive and time-consuming and ties up forces for deployment elsewhere if something comes up. I don’t see them wasting it.
Of course, when you start hearing about the 250,000 reservists getting called up to provide post-ass whupping support, you can be sure that D-Day is here.
Rope-a-dope
Rope-a-dope
Rope-a-dope dope dope
With our groups of troops comin’ on the lope
Sec State’s job is to hold out hope
While the C-in-C says it ain’t no soap
Hear ‘em rant
Hear ‘em rave
For the Coalition
Mission
They’re too late to save
With a speech
And a speech
And a speech
And a speech
For agreement to another breach
The French
And the German
Fighting to
Determine
Who is not so brave
With a speech
And a speech
And a speech
And a speech
Putting useful action out of reach
They talk ’til
They do nil
And so….
Rope-a-dope
Rope-a-dope
Rope-a-dope dope dope
With our groups of troops comin’ on the lope
Sec State’s job is to hold out hope
While the C-in-C says it ain’t no soap
I’m beginning to fear Bush just caved in to the “multiculti bromide” and Saddam will be spared.
Despite the Media sizzle, the steak is that our Australian Prime Minister and the real Australians are shoulder to shoulder with you. We remember our mates and we have a common purpose, we also have very hard hands and know how to use them.
It will work out fine Stephen.
Cheers, ron.
Stephen (great first name you’ve got there, btw):
I’m worried too. My hope is that Bush is waiting for Saddam to slip, but this all does make me antsy.
Here’s the article on the British ships.
Also, keep in mind that , according to Bob Wooward’s book….
(Approximates)
Number of Naval and Air personnel that destroyed the Taliban.
Thousands.
Ground Personnel, Army and Marine.
About 400.
CIA
About 100.
That’s pretty astonishing. When it does happen, it truly will lokk unlike anything we have yet seen.
My estimated timetable, FWIW.
UN will authorize force, because Bush & Blair will go after Saddam anyway, and France & Russia don’t want the UN discredited.
Riyadh delenda est!
What equipment that is moving now is not needed for the start of things, and probably not at all for fighting in Iraq. That’s already in place. Getting the personel over there is a 72 hour airlift. For 60000 men, that’s 200 flights at 300 per. More by some factor since not all the passenger planes can carry 300, but not double. The biggest issue here is tarmac time and moving the troops to the equipment – buses, not planes.
The equipment and troops moving along with it now will be enroute when the airwar starts, and likely not even fighting in Iraq. They will be setting up shop in Iraq’s south at whatever US bases are started there for the next stage of the war even if there is still fighting in central Iraq.
GWB and compnay are taking a long view, and have used the time to prepare for it. Just going into and taking Iraq could have been done months ago, but that would not have significantly shortened the time required to make Iraq the secure base with the men. equipemnt, and logistical support needed for the next stages of the war.
BTW: I recall that an American aircraft carrier fought in two major battles in WWII (Saratoga?) while reported still in drydock in the states. Expect the Brits to be there long before they are publically reported to be ready.
BTW again: 5000 already in theater does not agree with what I have read over the last few months unless 5000 men are continually being returned and redeployed. I expect that the number in theater today is closer to 30000.