Election-year memo to Democratic candidates: Don’t talk about the economic recovery. It’s a political loser.
So say Democratic strategists in a blunt declaration that such talk skips over “how much trouble people are in, and doesn’t convince them that policymakers really understand or are even focusing on the problems they continue to face.”
In addition, Stan Greenberg, James Carville and others wrote that in head-to-head polling tests the mere mention of the word “recovery” is trumped by a Republican assertion that the Obama administration has had six years to get the economy moving and its policies haven’t worked.
Coincidentally or not, Democrats have largely shelved the “R” word.
The worst part might be that the Donks have taken away my ability to go all Inigo Montoya on their use of the word recovery.
No time to write up an FNV mini column, but I did wake up this morning missing The Ramones for whatever random reason. So here they are, probably in ’78, performing “Teenage Lobotomy” live.
Most of The Ramones are dead. Long live The Ramones!
The Operative: “It’s worse than you know.”
Captain Mal Reynolds: “It usually is.”
Firefly/Serenity is infinitely quotable, and fans of the series/movies will recognize that bit of dialog from the scene where they’re discussing Professor Ditherton Wiggleroom’s spending problem:
President Obama’s budget adds $6.6 trillion in deficits over the next 10 years, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said Thursday.
That estimate is significantly worse than the $4.9 trillion in deficits predicted by the White House. The CBO used its own less rosy estimates of the economy to complete the analysis.
The CBO said by 2024, the deficit would be $746 billion, or 2.8 percent of the economy.
The Office of Management and Budget had said by 2024, the deficit would fall to $434 billion or 1.6 percent of the economy under the budget. In 2013, the deficit was 4.1 percent of the economy.
Good luck getting even to the CBO’s less-rosy numbers. When the debt is growing faster than the economy during the recovery, then what’s going to happen during the inevitable downturn? We’re buying what little growth we have, with trillions in the Fed’s
Bernanke Yellen Bucks, and trillions more in deficit spending. That’s the very definition of unsustainable.
If the question is “Why is China building a carrier navy?” then Bryan McGrath and Seth Cropsey might have the answer:
The most consequential misconception about the PLAN carrier program is that it is designed as part of a strategy to deter the United States from using its naval power to mediate East Asian conflict, the “mirror imaging” mentioned above. This is not the case.
China is building the capability to project power from the sea in order to build its strength relative to its neighbors, primarily those with whom it has ongoing territorial seas claims (including Vietnam, the Philippines, and Japan). China does not need to build a navy as large or as powerful as the U.S. Navy in order to create fear and uncertainty among its neighbors. It only needs to build a navy with the credible means to project power over those neighbors’ shores.
Put another way, the strategic target of the PLAN in building a carrier force is not the U.S. Navy, but the network of alliances that longstanding U.S. economic and security interests in the region aim to preserve. Creating uncertainty and doubt in the minds of regional governments that the United States can continue to assure their security is at the heart of China’s desire to see the U.S. diminished in the region.
There are two steps needed to replace the major partner in an alliance. The first is to show that the major partner is too weak or feckless or uncommitted to be a strong and reliable partner. I’d say we’ve demonstrated fecklessness all too often in recent years, bordering on “uncommitted.” We’re demonstrating at least some weakness with our broken naval procurement system and our refusal to maintain our fleet even at its present size.
The second step is to demonstrate yourself as a viable replacement — not loved, but at least strong enough to be respected. And China is certainly going down that path, even if they are a decade or two away from getting there.
For a preview of East Asia, look at what’s happened to the Middle East as we’ve retreated from there and Russia has risen in stature.
Byron York tries to figure out the winners (you may already receive a subsidy!) and the losers:
“When carriers converted their old policies to Obamacare-compliant, it was typical for the insurance company to increase costs about 35 percent to comply,” Laszewski says. “That increase could come in the form of higher premiums, more co-pays and deductibles, and narrower networks. A carrier might have only increased rates 15 percent but then created a narrow network worth another 25 percent, for example. Even when they did the above, some individuals might have seen a 15 percent decrease and others a 50 percent increase — many demographic issues skewed the rate result. So, getting any simple ‘it went up 34.7 percent’ just isn’t possible.”
The bottom line, according to Laszewski: “We have literally millions of people each impacted a bit differently.” That’s hard to quantify and turn into a neat political argument.
We have lots of known unknowns here. But it’s the unknown unknowns that usually sneak up behind you and bite you on the rear. We might not get a real feel for those teeth, and whose behind they land in, until election day.
Around 40% has been the most common answer given to the question of what percentage of Young Invincibles is needed to make the exchanges solvent. That 28% is “up” from 27% the month before — and the young invincibles were the ones who were expected most likely to sign up at the last minute. So it’s a pretty safe assumption that the youth surge never happened.
And those who did sign up are probably also the most likely to drop out after making only a payment or two.
I’d like to stress however that this is a national average. Some states will be in better shape, while others must already be actuarial disaster areas.
Bailouts today, bailouts tomorrow, bailouts forever!
Egypt has been demoted to Somebody Else’s Problem:
Egypt and China earlier this month signed an $800 million memorandum of understanding for the construction of high-speed rail from the country’s northern borders down to Aswan. China will invest $1.5 trillion in Africa during the next 15 years by some estimates, and Egypt is the land bridge to Africa. Egypt will be a spur on the New Silk Road that China is building from Beijing to the Bosphorus.
After three years of hallucinations about the future of the Middle East, we have woken up to a different world with a new set of players and a new set of problems. We have dealt ourselves out of the game and appear condemned to watch helplessly as others play — or, more likely, not to watch at all, for the foreign policy establishment seems oblivious to the great changes around them.
That’s David Goldman. I’m still wincing at the “oblivious” because it’s scarily true. The Administration still talks and sort-of tries to kind-of act like we’re still a player in the region, but our words there no longer carry any weight and its been years since our actions were anything other than self-defeating.
So the Arabs and Persians are rid of their American overlords. They’re going to love their new Chinese overlords gobs better.
Maybe it’s just the typical early morning dread that hangs around until the second cup of coffee is poured, but it seems increasingly clear to me that Ukraine cannot be saved. Kyiv doesn’t have the means to resist, and Ukraine doesn’t have enough strategic importance to the West for us to commit to the actions that would be necessary to save it from its large and aggressive neighbor.
But if the country can’t be saved, might there be something of Ukraine to be salvaged?
Before we get to that though, a little something that occurred to me yesterday after reading that some Ukrainian Jews had been ordered to “register” with the pro-Russian paramilitaries in the east. If I were president I’d have immediately and very publicly ordered a Marine amphibious group to the Black Sea. Not to wage war, or even to threaten war — but to assist, if need be, with the evacuation of Jews to Israel or to our shores. Odessa is awfully far from the Donbas to be convenient for refugees, but it’s a safe bet not even Vlad the Bad would want to mess with U.S. Marines on a mercy mission. That kind of thing would go a long way to restoring some of our standing with “New Europe,” too. In fact, positioning the Marines for potential rescue missions is a good idea, even if the registration story turns out not to be true as my friend Greg Hill informed me last night.
So. Back to the question of what might possibly be salvaged of Ukraine — and my eyes wander to the left side of the map.
Eric Holder is a crybaby and a sign of what’s wrong with Washington — in both parties.
The good news is more Americans are covered, according to Gallup:
President Obama’s health law has led to an even greater increase in health coverage than previously estimated, according to new Gallup survey data, which suggests that about 12 million previously uninsured Americans have gained coverage since last fall.
That is millions more than Gallup found in March and suggests that as many as 4 million people have signed up for some kind of insurance in the last several weeks as the first enrollment period for the Affordable Care Act drew to a close.
Just 12.9% of adults nationally lacked coverage in the first half of April, initial data from the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index indicate. That’s the lowest rate since the survey began in 2008.
Eighteen percent were uninsured in the third quarter of 2013, just before Americans could start shopping for coverage on the new online marketplaces created by the law.
The bad news is that “covered” includes millions of new Medicaid recipients, who are better described as “welfare recipients” than “insured.” Gallup also doesn’t reveal the dropout rate or the percentage of Young Invincibles needed to make the exchanges viable. That giant sucking sound you hear is money swirling around Washington on its way down the drain.
First the Bavarians gave the world great beer. Now this:
Munich has legalized public nudity and has also declared 6 “urban naked zones”.
The urban naked areas allow naturists to strip off and show their bums and other bits without risking arrest, the Mirror reported.
However, these nudist spots are not fenced off or hidden away.
Say what you want, but Oktoberfest just got a lot more interesting.
Germany calls its outdoor pedestrian shopping areas Fußgängerzone — literally, foot-goer-zone. Makes you wonder what they’ll call their nudity areas.
Ukraine’s Interior Minister said Thursday that three pro-Russian protesters were killed, 13 more were wounded, and 63 were arrested in a confrontation at a military base in the east of the country.
The Wall Street Journal first reported the remarks by Arsen Avakov. The incident occurred at a base in the southeastern city of Mariupol, in the Donbass region of the country, approximately 70 miles south of Donetsk.
Earlier, the Journal reported that a group of insurgents had stormed the base late Wednesday as Ukraine’s military drive to regain control of the country’s east from separatists was stymied by civilians who halted army columns in their tracks and militants who hijacked Ukrainian military vehicles and drove them around with Russian flags.
Kyiv needs to crack down enough to keep its pro-Russian regions from effectively ceding themselves to Moscow, without cracking down so hard that they give Putin justification to be more aggressive. That might well prove to be an impossible tightrope to cross.
The historical analogy I’m thinking of here is what happened after Hitler annexed Czechoslovakia’s Sudetenland. This isn’t a perfect analogy, as people tend to forget there were other countries feasting at Munich; Hungary got a tasty strip of Slovakia and Poland annexed the small Zaolzie region. But there are more parallels between Ukraine and post-Munich Czechoslovakia.
Hitler succeeded in disrupting the rump state in the months after Munich thoroughly enough to take over the rest of the country. Slovakia was granted very nominal independence (except for another chunk awarded to Hungary), and the Czech regions were demoted to the “Bohemia-Moravia Protectorate” fully under Berlin’s boot.
Watching events in Ukraine, you can’t help but wonder if this isn’t March of 1939 all over again.
Google’s purchase of Titan Aerospace, a New Mexico-based startup that builds unmanned vehicles capable of flying long distances and durations, came after Facebook reportedly eyed Titan and ultimately took over another drone startup last month.
The two Silicon Valley rivals are increasingly vying to build or buy promising technology and stake their claims to new business models and emerging markets — whether it’s using artificial intelligence to deliver personalized services or offering low-cost mobile messaging to millions of people in developing nations.
“They’re definitely looking for the next big innovation,” said Jeff Vining, a tech industry analyst at the Gartner research firm. He added: “Civilian uses for drones are going to explode far beyond the public safety and military uses we know of today.”
Some smart member of Congress ought to introduce legislation defining the airspace above private land, up to maybe 1,000 feet or so, shall be defined as part of that private property. Kinks will have to be worked out such as the exact height-above-ground, but it’s absolutely mandatory that the bill include a provision for civilian-grade surface-to-air missiles.
The real kicker to this VOA report comes at the end of the excerpt:
A senior U.N. human rights official warned Wednesday that if the situation in eastern Ukraine is not quickly addressed, it “risks seriously destabilizing” the entire country.
Assistant Secretary-General for Human Rights Ivan Šimonović told the U.N. Security Council that those with influence should immediately act to stop the violence.
“The arming of the protesters and their transformation into quasi-paramilitary forces must be stopped. Anyone inciting violence and providing arms to protesters can be held accountable for the resulting tragic consequences,” said Šimonović.
Anyone? What if those protestors are pro-Kyiv? Am I reading too much into what Šimonović has said, or is the UN Human Rights chief already engaging in a little Cold War-style moral equivalence between Moscow and the West?
George Will on the nature of Progressive politics:
The fundamental division in U.S. politics is between those who take their bearings from the individual’s right to a capacious, indeed indefinite, realm of freedom, and those whose fundamental value is the right of the majority to have its way in making rules about which specified liberties shall be respected.
He’s far too generous. No liberties will be respected. Their goal is now that happy end state where everything not mandatory is forbidden. We’ll be thrown trinkets along the way like legal marijuana (which I once used to enjoy when it was illegal) and Supreme Court-protect strippers (but now I have kids, and who has time for strip clubs anymore?). But in everything important, we already spend more and more of our time either paying taxes or following the rules or talking to a lawyer trying to figure out what the [BLEEP] the rules mean or paying off a lobbyist trying to get a breather from the rules.
Which is exactly how they want it.
Anyway — go read Will’s piece, which is a review of former Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer’s dreadful-yet-revealing new book.
Jews in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk where pro-Russian militants have taken over government buildings were told they have to “register” with the Ukrainians who are trying to make the city become part of Russia, according to Israeli media.
Jews emerging from a synagogue say they were handed leaflets that ordered the city’s Jews to provide a list of property they own and pay a registration fee “or else have their citizenship revoked, face deportation and see their assets confiscated,” reported Ynet News, Israel’s largest news website.
UPDATE: I added the “never again” offhandedly, the way too much of the world seems to mean it: “Genocide’s bad, mmkay?”
But that’s not what it means.
“Never again” is a Jewish promise to the world. It means never again will they submit to registration. Never again will they don the yellow Star of David on their sleeves. Never again will they walk meekly to the concentration camps. Never again will they go quietly into the ovens.
“Never again” means if you want the Jews, you’re going to have to come and get them.
That is why there’s an Israel, and don’t ever forget it.
That fancy new smart meter your utility company might have just installed in your home isn’t just smart — it’s sneaky:
The information gathered from smart meters includes unencrypted data that can, among other details, reveal when a homeowner is away from their residence for long periods of time. The electric wattage readings can even decipher what type of activities a customer is engaged in, such as watching TV, using a computer or even how long someone spends cooking.
“It’s in the nature of technology to be neutral in the benefits and the risks; it’s how the info is used,” Allen Gilbert, executive director of the Vermont branch of the American Civil Liberties Union, tells FoxNews.com. “Look at smartphones. No one can argue the benefits of having one. But on the other hand, it’s the best tracking device.”
I can’t find the link from my pre-PJM archives, but I wrote in the wee early days of VodkaPundit that privacy was over, that everything would be surveilled, and that you had best check your zipper twice before leaving your house.
What I couldn’t have imagined ten or 12 years ago is that your house would check your fly first.
Dear lord, but I hope you know you’re not supposed to do that.
Sit before reading:
All told, including both the welfare recipients and the non-welfare beneficiaries, there were 151,014,000 who “received benefits from one or more programs” in the fourth quarter of 2011. Subtract the 3,212,000 veterans, who served their country in the most profound way possible, and that leaves 147,802,000 non-veteran benefit takers.
The 147,802,000 non-veteran benefit takers outnumbered the 86,429,000 full-time private sector workers 1.7 to 1.
How much more can the 86,429,000 endure?
Now stand up and go Galt.
From the prepared remarks provided to Fox News First: “With Russian aggression on the rise, clearly conciliatory diplomacy has failed. While sanctions are of some value, in the interest of our alliance, I believe the United States and the EU must respond with deeds more than words to strengthen our economic and strategic defenses.”
Missile shield – “And, with continued instability in the Middle East, Iran’s ongoing effort to develop long-range missiles and nuclear technology, and Putin’s annexation of Crimea and aggression in Ukraine, I believe we must take immediate steps to deploy a robust missile defense in Europe – especially Poland and the Czech Republic – to protect the interests of our NATO allies and the United States in the region.”
Pence and Scott Walker are cut from similar cloth — wonky, successful, non-threatening conservative governors from midwestern states. Either one would make a delightful dark horse in 2016, although each has weakness.
But I’m saving that discussion for the inevitable (?) White House runs.
Marco Rubio’s statement on Ukraine:
The Obama administration must immediately increase sanctions on Russia. Sector-based sanctions should begin to be imposed and President Putin’s own financial assets, and those of his associates, targeted.
By delaying the most significant penalties, the United States and our allies have unfortunately sent the message to Russia that there will be little cost to pay for this type of behavior.
We should also stand with Ukraine as the interim government attempts to deal with these provocations. This includes immediately providing the lethal assistance they requested weeks ago.
We also need to take measures to reassure our allies in Central and Eastern Europe by deploying more alliance assets to their territories to reinforce our NATO commitments to their security.
“Armed takeovers of foreign territory by masked men are the crude tactics of bygone regional powers, not the actions of 21st century nations. Until Russia is convinced of a real cost of its current course of action, I fear that Ukraine’s stability will continue to be undermined. I urge the President to act without delay.
This doesn’t exactly lend me any assurance of Rubio’s foreign policy acumen. He’s combined Professor Ditherton Wiggleroom’s naif-like assessment of Russia’s standing with tough talk of “lethal assistance” that the Administration, NATO, or Europe is unlikely to offer.
This strikes more as the statement of somebody feeling around for a Reaganesque response to the Kremlin but without quite finding one.
So what would Reagan do? Reagan brought down the Soviet empire in the public stage by treating our adversary with the respect they deserved as a world power, but with the moral understanding that the empire was indeed evil. In the Western hemisphere Reagan provided arms to freedom fighters in Communist countries, and in the case of Grenada, an armed invasion. The only lethal assistance Reagan provided in the eastern hemisphere was to the mujahadin in Afghanistan, a backwater where the Red Army was already fully engaged — but with no restive Russian minority and not a part of Russia’s historic “near abroad.”
Reagan used a conventional arms buildup and investments in missile defense to bankrupt the Soviets financially and technologically. Behind the scenes Reagan worked with our energy allies (mostly the Saudis) to keep oil prices low enough, long enough to put the final squeeze on the Soviet economy. Here at home Reagan made the moral and political case against statism at every opportunity.
What Reagan never did was threaten to wage hot war in Eastern Europe or within the USSR because — and please pardon the f-bomb — Russia was a f***** nuclear power.
So the question remains: What would Reagan do? I don’t know — these are different times. But I’m pretty sure he wouldn’t release a statement like Rubio’s.
Predicting the collapse of North Korea is a fool’s game — and one I never tire of playing. So with that, let’s play along today with Christopher Lee:
Kim Jong Un is defined by many as an egotistical fanatic whose recklessness led to dreadful mistakes during his two year tenure. First, instead of implementing a sound plan to alleviate the mass hunger and poverty in his nation where the average annual income is $1,800, he continues to conduct costly missile research, development, and test launches. To support his weapons programs, Kim spends approximately $10 billion – about 25 percent of total GDP – on his military. The $3.2 billion spent on nuclear weapons and missile development over the years is equivalent to three years’ supply of food for North Korea’s citizens.
Second, on April 8, 2013, Kim broke his partnership with South Korea regarding their joint venture in the Kaesong Industrial Park. This action further severed ties between North and South Korea and cost North Korea 53,000 jobs and wage losses amounting to $245.7 million. South Korea paid workers’ salaries directly to the North Korean government, so this loss of revenue further bankrupted North Korea.
Third, and above all, Kim’s most flawed and dangerous decision was the recent purge and public pillory of Jang Song Thaek. This action not only destroyed the image of unity in his regime, but also inadvertently acknowledged the dissension and instability within the state-run government. It strained his nation’s alliance with its closest ally, China, who was working closely with Jang in an effort to convince a determinedly opposed Kim to adopt to a China-style economic reform.
Combined, these instances demonstrate a realistic probability that this authoritarian regime may potentially crumble in the near future.
That third item is the key. As we’ve discussed here before, the ruling clique needs the carrot and the stick, or the whole thing falls apart. Oftentimes rather suddenly.
That’s why I say it’s a fool’s game. Outsiders have no way of knowing who is making overtures to China or who is getting ready to flee or which security services colonel (it’s almost always a colonel) thinks it’s time to “save” his country via firing squad.
But then it happens, or all at once.
The Mother of All Administration Malfeasance stories, courtesy of Megan McArdle:
For several months now, whenever the topic of enrollment in the Affordable Care Act came up, I’ve been saying that it was too soon to tell its ultimate effects. We don’t know how many people have paid for their new insurance policies, or how many of those who bought policies were previously uninsured. For that, I said, we will have to wait for Census Bureau data, which offer the best assessment of the insurance status of the whole population. Other surveys are available, but the samples are smaller, so they’re not as good; the census is the gold standard. Unfortunately, as I invariably noted, these data won’t be available until 2015.
I stand corrected: These data won’t be available at all. Ever.
Read the whole thing.
I’ve become cynical enough about politics in the last quarter century that I thought nothing could shock me anymore. But the same White House that weaponized the IRS has done the same thing to the Census Bureau, and turned it into the data-collection, collation, and distribution arm of the Democratic Party.
Folks, I don’t know how to clean up this mess anymore.
First, some good news for a change:
According to the CBO, the net cost of the Affordable Care Act is projected to cost $5 billion less in 2014 than originally projected. The projected cost from 2015 to 2024 is estimated to cost $104 billion less than originally expected.
“CBO’s new forecasts reflect the fact that premiums on the exchange have come in slightly lower than initially expected,” Vox’s Sarah Kliff wrote Monday after the report was published online. “The ones being sold this year tend to pay doctors less and have ‘narrower networks of providers.’ When health plans contract with fewer doctors, they typically can negotiate cheaper prices with the few physicians they do include in their networks.”
Well, kind of good news. The government will be spending less money, but passing the crappy health networks on to you. There’s also the wee little issue that even if a spending increase is smaller than forecast, it’s still a spending increase.
You also have to wonder something about those lower-than-expected premiums. Right now, insurers on the private exchanges might be engaging in a little moral hazard when pricing their plans. Thanks to ♡bamaCare!!!’s “risk corridors,” they know there is bailout money available to them if they price their plans too low. And let’s face it: There’s an unspoken assumption that it would be politically impossible for this Administration to allow any health insurer to go bankrupt as the law rolls out.
Enjoy those lower premiums, kids — you (or your grandkids) will still pay the difference.
Speaking of lower premiums… wait, what lower premiums? Read:
“For the last, about, five years they’ve been doing this survey, so this was the largest percentage increase in any quarter since they’ve been doing (it),” said Scott Gottlieb of the American Enterprise Institute.
“But at 12 percent, 11 percent increase on average across all the states — that puts it at the upper end of any increase we’ve seen for decades.”
That is the national average in a survey done by Morgan Stanley. But in some states, it found rates are soaring.
“There are specific states with exorbitant increases,” Gottlieb said. “Delaware had 100 percent increase, Florida had a 37 percent increase, Pennsylvania 28 percent increase, California had a 53 percent increase in their premiums.”
The story doesn’t make it clear, so I’m assuming that this survey focused on all insurers, or maybe just on employer-based coverage plans, and not just on the exchanges. So it looks to me like ♡bamaCare!!!’s vast army of losers includes those who don’t have to purchase on the exchanges.
You think those CBO numbers will still look so nice when, as planned, employers start dumping more people onto ♡bamaCare!!!?
Are you ready for another standoff in Nevada? The Feds might be:
So are the feds willing to forgive and forget?
Already, Bundy supporters are citing the resolution to the weekend’s dispute as an important moment. Arizona state Rep. David Livingston, speaking with Reuters, called it a “major tipping point” for western lawmakers pushing state sovereignty issues.
But Heller’s Senate colleague, Senate Majority Leader Reid, D-Nev., told Reno-based KRNV: “It’s not over. We can’t have, in America, people that violate the law and just walk away from it. So it’s not over.”
At the least, BLM officials say they’ll continue their fight through the courts.
“The courts” is exactly where BLM should have begun, not with an armed invasion to seize private property.
Scott Ott took the standoff for his Trifecta topic this week, and Bill Whittle — on or off camera, I don’t remember — made an interesting point. He wondered if the Feds would use this to re-write their rules of engagement, and next time move in faster, with no warning, and even more heavily armed.
The Founders would have called it tyranny.