Last night, Megyn Kelly aired this warning from President George W. Bush. He made the statement a few months after the surge in 2007, in response to critics such as then Sen. Barack Obama, who were demanding that US troops begin leaving Iraq immediately.

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Bush warned what would happen. Specifically:

  1. Leaving too soon would be dangerous for Iraq, for the region, and for the United States.
  2. It would mean surrendering the future of Iraq to al Qaeda.
  3. We would risk mass killings on a horrific scale.
  4. It would allow the terrorists to establish a safe haven in Iraq, to replace the one they lost in Afghanistan.
  5. Leaving too soon would make it more likely that American troops would have to return to Iraq, to face an even more dangerous enemy.

Did President Bush get any of that wrong? The Islamic State isn’t al Qaeda, so point two isn’t entirely accurate. But IS is arguably even worse than al Qaeda.