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by
Bryan Preston

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March 14, 2014 - 10:30 am

To understand just how ominous this is, take a look at this map:

commonwealth

 

Russia has already seized Crimea and is mobilizing its military in key spots along its border with Ukraine, calling that mobilization “exercises.” On the Ukraine side of that border is a majority ethnic Russian region. Oleg Atbashian reported earlier today that pro-Russians in Donetsk, Ukraine are stirring up violence. Russia already used the threat of violence as its pretext for seizing Crimea. It’s not unreasonable to suspect that Putin is behind the riots that Atbashian reported, to use them as a pretext to move into Ukraine and seize not only its majority Russian regions, but also its valuable energy producing region in the east. Russian forces could move in from Crimea as well as from bases inside Russia.

Now, note the position of Belarus, and then read this translated story, from Interfax:

Moscow. March 14. INTERFAX.RU – tactical exercises with units of Force and Air Defense Forces began Friday in Belarus, part of a military aircraft relocated to the preparatory airfields.

“Today started tactical exercises with units of a number of compounds of anti-aircraft missile troops Air Force and Air Defense Forces of Belarus,” – said the agency “Interfax” on Friday, the press service of the Defense Ministry.

There have been informed that “on March 14 in accordance with the plan check combat readiness of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus was done of the flight Air Force and Air Defense Forces on prepared airfields.”

Belarus is allied to Moscow. If the plan is to move in from both Russia and Belarus, Ukraine will be blitzed from the east and the north. It barely stands a chance. Russia could be expected to seize Ukraine’s east, while Belarus forces might be tasked with taking Ukraine’s energy producing region to the west. Putin might have already struck a deal with his client state to divide Ukraine between them. Such a deal would be in keeping with Russia’s longstanding strategy of building buffer states between itself and the west — Belarus control of Ukraine’s west effectively sets Belarus as a buffer state between Russia and Poland, Romania and other frontier NATO states.

On Thursday, US Secretary of State John Kerry warned Putin to reverse course in Ukraine by Monday or face US and European sanctions. Monday could be too late. By then, the Crimea referendum on joining Russia will have passed (the ballot doesn’t even provide a “no” option) and Russia and Belarus forces will either be poised to move into Ukraine, or may already have.

Update: Russia is laying out its grounds for invasion. Unsurprisingly, the Donetsk riot plays a central role.

Bryan Preston has been a leading conservative blogger and opinionator since founding his first blog in 2001. Bryan is a military veteran, worked for NASA, was a founding blogger and producer at Hot Air, was producer of the Laura Ingraham Show and, most recently before joining PJM, was Communications Director of the Republican Party of Texas.

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All Comments   (3)
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Those of us who compare the bare chested conqueror of the Crimea with the momma-jean wearing metro sexual ruler of the US and find our emperor weak to the point of deserved ridicule miss the essential strength of Obama.

It is no ordinary weakling who can turn our once respected country into an international joke; who can reduce Congress to a gaggle of sniveling sycophants; turn the finest medical system in the world into a failed third-rate socialist nightmare with a stroke of his pen; shatter our Constitution without attempted recourse by the sons and daughters of the frontiersmen and pioneers whose blood was used to write that inspired document; and turn the people of our once united States into a herd of competing minorities, who, like suckling pigs, are each afraid to lose his place on the government teat should he raise his voice to protest the ruin of our country.

So do not denigrate this nonentity ruler who has overcome his uncertain ancestry and ludicrous incompetence to do what no other king or dictator has been able to do in our two hundred and thirty seven year history: he has destroyed America.


39 weeks ago
39 weeks ago Link To Comment
"Putin might have already struck a deal with his client state to divide Ukraine between them."

I doubt it. Outright partition would probably be a step too far even for Putin. Right now, he has a fig leaf of a reason with the claim to be protecting ethnic Russians. What claim would Belarus have? (OTOH, Belarus' Lukashenko is a crazy fascist. He might go for it..) Conquering portions or all of west Ukraine would be the final straw leading to NATO rearmament. Even the craven David Cameron and Angela Merkel would be forced to do something.

More likely, I think, is that this is meant to put more pressure on Ukraine's fragile government and stretch her feeble military even further.

God help them.
40 weeks ago
40 weeks ago Link To Comment
The strong do what they will, the weak suffer what they must. That's why Obama foreign policy is directed toward making the US weak; we must suffer for past sins.
40 weeks ago
40 weeks ago Link To Comment
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