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by
Stephen Green

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May 14, 2013 - 1:34 pm

Michael Totten has had his boots on the ground in the Middle East for over a decade, otherwise I might have dismissed this report [Sub Only] by Gary Brecher. Read:

When you look at this war strictly as a military struggle, you notice something weird: over two years of fighting, the lines are almost totally static. The Alawites, Assad’s Shi’ia-ish people, have withdrawn from most of inland Syria — the flat, dry country where the Sunni dominate. But Assad’s troops and militias are still fighting for Aleppo, the biggest city in the Sunni inland region, and they’re holding on strong in their coastal home region. The Kurds have assumed control of their enclaves in the north and northeast with some help from their PKK friends in Turkey. Roughly speaking, the Alawites, who always looked like sure losers, have held their own and even pushed back, despite being only about 10% of the population, and having a tradition of being considered weird hicks by other Syrians.

If you look at a map of sectarian demographics in Syria, and superimpose it on a map showing areas of Assad control and rebel-held regions, you’ll see that the two maps are almost identical. And the front lines haven’t changed much since the Sunni grabbed control of their neighborhoods two years ago. Syria makes the Western Front of WWI look like the Paris-Dakar Rally by comparison. The lines held by the Sunni, Shi’ia and Kurds barely move.

Two years of hard fighting against hardening lines. Had President Bush done what he should have done in 2003, and recognized a Free Kurdistan in northern Iraq, then Syria’s Kurds would have something positive to aspire to, and even to merge with. But right now Syria is indeed looking more like Somalia — but with more peoples, deadlier weapons, and more deeply-felt grievances.

Ten years might be understating it.

Stephen Green began blogging at VodkaPundit.com in early 2002, and has served as PJMedia's Denver editor since 2008. He's one of the hosts on PJTV, and one-third of PJTV's Trifecta team with Scott Ott and Bill Whittle. Steve lives with his wife and sons in the hills and woods of Monument, Colorado, where he enjoys the occasional lovely adult beverage.

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The thing about fragmented, failed states is, Afghanistan was one before the Taliban arrived. Somalia still is one and al Qaeda likes it that way.

Sometimes they do manage to cause mischief to their neighbors, and to countries half a world away.
49 weeks ago
49 weeks ago Link To Comment
As long as they're killing each other, they're not causing mischief to Israel.
49 weeks ago
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