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by
Rick Moran

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April 6, 2013 - 6:33 am

It is amazing just how wrong economists were in their predictions for the number of jobs that were to be created in March. The “consensus” figure was 200,000 — a far cry from the actual number created which was 88,000. Totally “unexpected,” as usual.

In one way, you can’t blame them. After a better than average gain in February of 236,000 (revised upward this month to 268,000), along with some positive numbers in housing and consumer spending, there were no doubt many analysts who began breathing a sigh of relief and believing that the long-awaited jobs recovery was upon us.

According to the New York Times, the experts didn’t account for a few realities that are beginning to shape our “new” economy:

“It’s important to look at the types of jobs that are being created because those jobs will directly affect the fortunes and challenges of households and neighborhoods as well as the course of the recovery,” said Sarah Bloom Raskin, a member of the Federal Reserve Board, in a recent speech. [...]

Ms. Raskin also expressed concern about temporary-help jobs, which account for a growing share of total employment.

Usually an increase in temp hiring is considered a good thing, at least at the start of a recovery, since it indicates that employers are thinking about taking on permanent workers. So far, though, employers seem to be sticking with those temporary contracts.

“Temporary help is rapidly approaching a new record,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial, who noted that there was also a rapid increase in temp hiring during the boom years of the ‘90s. “That of course means more flexibility for employers, and less job security for workers.”

Perhaps most distressingly, millions of workers who want full-time work still can find only part-time work, and their missing work hours do not count toward the official unemployment rate.

Nearly 10% of the workforce is what the BLS calls “employed part-time for economic reasons.” That is to say, either their hours were cut or they were forced into part-time work because they couldn’t find full-time employment. According to Gallup, the percentage of part-time workers who want full time work but can’t find any is the same as it was in March, 2012. There are about 3 million temporary workers who also are not counted as unemployed.

With the labor participation rate the lowest it’s been since 1979, and another 200,000+ workers that were added to the category of being too discouraged to look for work, nearly 90 million Americans are now out of the work force.  The major culprits in March are being identified as the payroll tax “increase” (actually, the payroll tax cut was never meant to be permanent) and, of course, Obamacare.

The full effects on jobs of Obamacare have not been felt yet. There will certainly be millions of more workers losing full-time jobs as their employers seek to bring their full-time workforce under 50 so that they can avoid the worst of Obamacare’s mandates and taxes. Some employees will be shifted to part-time work — especially in the retail and restaurant industries. Others will simply see their jobs disappear.

So what kind of economy appears likely to emerge from the ruins of The Great Recession? It isn’t just Obamacare that is reshaping our economy. Obama administration policies and regulations that make it more difficult to start a business mean that there will be fewer entrepreneurs creating new products that require good workers to make them.  Employers will seek to hire more temporary help during busy periods rather than permanently expand their workforce. The number of full-time workers in some industries will drop dramatically as companies adjust to an economy of sluggish growth, high taxes, and a clinging uncertainty about the future by either not filling open positions or hiring part time help.

Without regulatory and tax reform — and the repeal of Obamacare — the post-recession environment is going to be a lot more unfriendly to both business and labor. But at least we’ll all be equal in our misery thanks to the president’s redistributionist policies and a disrespect for those who achieve, or wish to achieve, success.

Rick Moran is PJ Media's Chicago editor and Blog editor at The American Thinker. He is also host of the"RINO Hour of Power" on Blog Talk Radio. His own blog is Right Wing Nut House.

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Top Rated Comments   
Obama's "new normal" economy is "normal" in the sense of Marilyn Manson.

It's ugly...and it plays up its ugliness as a feature to sell.

First, we can't get an honest answer about anything in this administration and we have conspiratorial press that has abandoned its post. We not only aren't told the truth about how our money is being spent, they don't even bother to pretend to pass a budget to show us. And the media yawns.

Employment...not "unemployment" ought to be the gauge. Man hours worked in a 40 hour week, not some phony miscounting of people who have permanently stopped looking or have taken a paper route to buy a loaf of bread.

Common sense is completely out the window under this lawless Presidency.

The REAL number of Americans who are not working fully...is over 1/3 of the workforce. And, it is high time we stop BS'ing ourselves about why that is.

Rampant, runaway leftism is destroying the globe. We are the last great gasp of hope. And, I fear...we lack the courage and the clarity to do a damn thing about it.
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
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Normally, one could say that a message might be sent in 2014 but through whom? Does anyone really believe that the Republican Party is an attractive or viable alternative in the minds of many Americans? Pepople have not forgotten the last Republican majority from 2001-2006 and the rampant spending of that group. Why would voters believe that their situation will improve by returning the GOP to true power? The employment situation in the US is in one heck of a pickle and will be until the nation at large comes to the realization that there is no "painless " way to re-build our economic structure until we develop a "new model." By employing the "garbage in-garbage out" approach at election time, all we are going to get is garbage.
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
FWIW, I had the story on this quite some time ago:

http://1389blog.com/2012/11/29/the-biggest-economic-story-of-2013-disappearance-of-full-time-jobs-with-benefits/

Matter of fact, I predicted the fact that there would be no recovery, all the way back in 2008:

1389blog.com/2008/12/09/when-small-men-cast-long-shadows/

A lot of good THAT did. Saying "I told you so" too many times is a dangerous temptation to the sin of despair.

Which is why I'm in the process of emigrating. Let's just say I'm going to look for those jobs that were shoved out of the US by one bad US administration after another. After Reagan left office, they have all been very bad indeed, and the current one is truly evil.
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
Rick -- what so many are unaware of is the 'employment' bloat we've encountered in our economy since the late eighties and early nineties -- especially, in mfg classified industries and throughout the service industries. If you were to take a look at each of the top 5,000 companies in the U.S., tracking their profits YTY and then look at their employment data, it will validate the bloat. Likewise, if that is to laborious, take a look at the domestic GDP for say ten year preceding the 2007 collapse and then since, noting the comparisons of consistant increase YTY with low unemploymet vs. the years of high unemployment. What percentage of our labor workforce is actually 'essential' to either maintain or grow our GDP YTY?
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
@ cfbleachers down below.
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
http://unemploymentdata.com/charts/historical-employment-data/

Geesh! Thye've been way ahead of you for historically charting employed vs. unemployed!

"The REAL number of Americans who are not working fully...is over 1/3 of the workforce.

Can you please provide the source that breaks your claim down into the DOL classified groups of the work force? How does it compare with YTY comparisons for each of the groups? Misrepresenting data does not do a discussion any justice!
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
It's going to get bad before it gets worse!
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
The voters who pulled the lever for Democrat politicians will now get to enjoy the fruit of Democrat policies.

They will, of course, find a way to blame others.

1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
The post economy will consist of riots wreckage and ruin.
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
It's also called "the European economy".

1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
...."equal in our misery"...no, Mercedes just had a record month...there are millions of people out there who have already "got theirs", or are "getting theirs"...the high end resorts in vegas are booming, I stay in contact with my friends in the Caribbean and their charter service is booming... 2 mind sets, 1 in trouble, the other not a care about money or regulation
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
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