Reader Matthew writes:
OK, so I’m reading today’s WSJ/NBC/Marist poll results, which show the race tightening, but Romney still not taking much of a lead anywhere.
In Ohio, where Obama is up 51-45, the Journal reports that “nearly one in five Ohio poll respondents had already cast their ballots — and they favored Mr. Obama by a 63%-37% margin.”
Nearly one in five? That seems incredible. The Ohio Sec of State reports that as of last Friday, “more than 59,000″ Ohioans had already voted (voting started last Tuesday). Add in a comparable amount for this Tuesday (the day the WSJ poll concluded; the polls were closed on Monday for the holiday), and you have maybe 75,000 early voters. (Hell, round up and make it 100,000 if you want.) According to the Ohio Sec of State, there are nearly 8 million registered voters in Ohio. In 2008, there were 5.8 million ballots cast. Even if turnout were markedly lower this year — say 5 million — 100,000 early votes (as of the close of the WSJ poll) would be two percent; last time I checked that’s a lot less than “nearly one in five.”
Peculiar, no?
Well, yes and no. The Journal appears to have oversampled early voters and conflated them with absentee ballot requests, though the two aren’t necessarily the same thing. According to the Ohio secretary of state’s office, about 1.1 million absentee ballots have been requested. That number gets us to the Journal’s one-in-five estimation based on 2008 turnout. But it doesn’t mean that all of those absentees have already cast their ballots, or that they even will actually vote. They probably will, and some undoubtedly have filled out their ballots and sent them in. But it’s not out of bounds to say that one-in-five Ohioans have decided to be part of the early voting process. It is out-of-bounds to say that one-in-five have already voted and given Obama a lopsided lead. That hasn’t happened. The poll has evidently found many early voters among the 9% of Americans that we know actually respond to polls.
It also strikes me as out of bounds to extrapolate how Ohio will vote based on 59,000 out of about 5 million potential votes. We don’t know where those votes came from or who cast them. We don’t know if they’re Obama Phone voters or coal mine voters, to take two extremes.
Also read:
Hello all, About the 1 in 5 already casting ballots:
“In Ohio, where Obama is up 51-45, the Journal reports that “nearly one in five Ohio poll respondents had already cast their ballots — and they favored Mr. Obama by a 63%-37% margin.” Note that it says 1 in 5 POLL RESPONDENTS not total Oiho(!)voters. It simply means that more early voters choose Obama right now. But let’s see what happens between now and 11:59 on 11/6/12.
No, it means that early voters who responded to THIS POLL chose Obama over Romney by a 63% to 37% margin. Does anyone believe that a representative sample of Ohio voters is very far from about 50% each? The absentee ballot request rate isn’t this lopsided and Republicans appear to be fired up to vote against Obama. The most likely explanation is that the poll over samples groups likely to support Obama.
Frankly, I don’t understand the need to vote in September. MAYBE for servicemen and women, but for the general public? What is the point? Because you can?
Early voting, to allow for people on difficulty schedules need not last more than a week and should be as close as possible to the election so that everyone is on the same page when they vote.
What happens if someone votes in September and dies in October?
This is a bad idea, run amok.
I agree that in principle it’s a bad idea, but voting early does mean that you avoid getting hassled at the polls, especially if you look like you are going to vote the “wrong way” for your district. This would of course not be an issue if voters felt that the local government was going to keep the local polling places and their neighborhoods secure.
It also, by the way, tends to diminish the overweening power of the media. What’s the point of a late-breaking October surprise if most people have already voted?
Military, diplomatic corps, those who have scheduled medical procedures or other processes which may prevent them from going to a polling place, business and vacation travelers.
And from what I’ve seen, the number of people in that “1 in 5″ number came out to 160 in the poll results. So, that 63-37 result is based on a subset of 160 people of the larger poll. It’s an absolutely worthless number, in terms of statistical analysis.
The Marist Poll you are looking at has the following demographics
Democrats 40%
Republicans 29%
Independents 29%
I have a feeling a lot more Republicans are going to be voting in the next 26 days.
“It’s an absolutely worthless number, in terms of statistical analysis.”
Yes, but the intrepid journ-O-list who reported that wasn’t interested in statistical analysis! Too Math-y and accurate!
He/she was more interested in the voter-suppressing effect of a headline that reads: “Dear Leader Ahead by 3-2 Margin”
Going with the numbers in the poll but correcting them so the Democrats and Republicans come out equally (the Reps actually have a 1 point advantage), Romney comes out with 52.5% of the vote.
“Frankly, I don’t understand the need to vote in September. MAYBE for servicemen and women, but for the general public? What is the point? Because you can?”
The point is to allow for increased voter fraud. Period. That is why it is pushed. The left is well aware that they have no hope of winning a fair and honest election. Only one thing to do. Cheat! What’s the surprise? This is their MO.
I’m the “Matthew” that wrote this in originally, for what it’s worth. What the Journal was very clearly saying was that of the Ohio people who responded to its poll, nearly 20 percent had already voted. This has nothing to do with absentee ballots outstanding.
This is massively out of whack, and suggests a highly unrepresentative sample. And I think it also suggests that if you got a more representative sample, it would show Romney running far more competitively.
Wow! The Desperation on the left is getting to scary levels! The Anti-psychotics the left & the media(Ah, but I repeat myself) will need by Nov.6th, could knock out a Mad Charging African Bull Elephant! Lol! Some of them will have to be put on suicide watch, for their own safety! These childish attempts to suppress Romney votes, this election, will only chase the Moron Vote into the bars & any other of a million things Morons(Nearly 100% Obama Supporters) may do!
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God Bless America!