Rasmussen shows a four-point surge for Mitt Romney and that’s with only two days polling after the debate. Meanwhile, Reuters daily tracking also shows a four-point bounce for Romney during the same period.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.
These results are based upon nightly interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, only about two-thirds of the interviews for today’s update were conducted after the presidential debate. Sunday morning’s update will be the first national polling based entirely upon post-debate interviews.
Still, the numbers reflect quite a debate bounce for Romney. Heading into Wednesday’s showdown, it was the president who enjoyed a two-point advantage. Today is the first time Romney has been ahead by even a single point since mid-September. See daily tracking history. As with all bounces, it remains to be seen whether it is a temporary blip or signals a lasting change in the race.
Both men have solidified their partisan base. Romney is supported by 89% of Republicans and Obama by 88% of Democrats. Among those not affiliated with either major party, Romney leads by 16.
The generation gap remains wide. Obama leads by double digits among those under 40. Romney leads by double digits among those over 40.
Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update).
Post-debate state polls show Romney up one in Virginia, the president up one in Ohio and Romney up two in Florida. All three remain Toss-Ups in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. Check out our review of last week’s key polls to see “What They Told Us.”
Lest Romney supporters get antsy over the better-than-expected jobs numbers, Megan McArdle has the antidote:
There’s another reason to disbelieve in a conspiracy: the number comes too late to do any good. Most of the political experts I’ve talked to think that late-breaking good news on unemployment doesn’t help you . . . and the reason they think this is that George H. W. Bush had good employment numbers in the fall, with a sharp October decline in the number of unemployed, yet he nonetheless went down to defeat. If you go along for four years with an unemployment rate of over 8%, then suddenly dip to slightly below that figure, voters do not simply go “Hurray! The president finally fixed the economy just in time!” They think “Maybe it’s really getting better, and maybe it’s a blip.” (As in fact, the 1992 October jobs report sort of was–the number of people out of work rose again the following month, though in the context of a distinct downward trend).
The bottom line is that people’s view of the economy is very personal. They judge how well things are going based on their own personal economic experience, the experience of their family and friends, and how secure they feel in their job. Even the “official” unemployment number is not known to move the needle very much.
But there is no doubt that Romney’s beat down of Obama during the debate translated into a nice, healthy bump not only in the polls, but also in the intangible area of energizing his campaign and his supporters.
Just what the doctor ordered.
– the hand-wringing and despair cease? Polls will vacillate until the one which matters. Important to make a race of it, unlike McCain.
The truth is being revealed. Look to Chicago.
As Obama’s cover story comes down, the curtain goes up on the USAO’s cover-up of J.J., Jr.’s role in the Blago story
http://illinoispaytoplay.com/2012/10/05/as-obamas-cover-story-comes-down-the-curtain-goes-up-on-the-usaos-cover-up-of-j-j-jr-s-role-in-the-blago-story/
There was always a concern that Romney would go easy on The One, just like McCain.
The fact that he behaved like a winner won him much respect from the public, at least among the undecideds.
As to the Obamabots, they will vote for him, even if he kills their mamas and papas, they are THAT devoted.
Regardless, those who want the nation to retain its leadership, and not to fall off a fiscal cliff, will vote for Romney. Those who care that American’s enemies fear her, will also vote for Romney.
Thus, http://adinakutnicki.com/2012/08/20/americans-hope-to-change-the-occupant-of-the-white-house-an-anti-american-potus-runs-an-un-american-campaign-commentary-by-adina-kutnicki/
GO Romney!!
You mean to say that a certain percentage of the population (say 47% to just pull a “random” number out of a hat)are going to vote for Obama no matter what?
That is quite an astute observation. I would be willing to say that a certain number is also equally determined to vote for Romney no matter what.
The fact that Romney making just THAT observation is taking a bunch of flack and is somehow viewed with derision for making that point is just another reason to view the Obama Camp and the mainstream media (but I repeat myself) as desperate and lacking in any substance. All they have to offer is fear itself.
Yes, Mr. Sanchez, I believe you are more accurate than you know. Final vote tally from Nov. 6 will be Romney 53% to Obama 47% and in the electoral college the tally will be Romney 288, Obama 250.
many people are now aware of Obamas wish to redistribute wealth. I ask: what wealth… HES PRACTICALLY BANKRUPTED THE COUNTRY. Obamas rhetoric sounds like he hates America. Most citizens love this country…and resent his anti American remarks and actions.
This won’t last long…I understand Snoop Dogg (or Lion, or Tiger, or Bears, or whatever it is) has just penned the Gettysburg Address and Tom Paine’s “Common Sense” in one. Who says the self-confident, self-assured black community doesn’t have it in them?
http://v103.cbslocal.com/2012/10/05/snoop-dogg-mitt-romney-is-a-morman-with-no-hoes-and-other-musings/
Yeah, Snoop’s musings–and things in general–are sort of like this. Of course, sometimes I need a scorecard to tell the sides apart.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HID2iO3GdXs&feature=youtube_gdata_player
On a serious note–the Captain of the Prince of Wales died later that year when the Japs sunk his ship and the Repulse on 10 Dec 1941.
We live the lives we lead because good men died, if necessary, to make it possible.
And good men sometimes have to die because people in democracies simply will not take care of threats to liberty, both foreign and donestic, while they are small and easily managed.
Instead, they vote to prefer the easy life, if some pol says he can deliver it for them.
The debate helped the polls catch up with reality.
Three weeks ago, I predicted Obama would win, count ‘em, two states, New York and California.
Well, I’m sticking to my guns.
Polls have totally missed the anger at Obama who’s tried to run this great nation into the ground by every means possible; everything from looting our treasury, and giving national security secrets away, to rewarding our enemies and dissing our allies, refusing to drill for oil on public land and ushering in a sea of illegal aliens on our south west border to beef up his vote. Operation Fast and Furious was especially bad, not only the coverup, but the getting of American agents killed. Egypt and Libya were equally bad by Obama’s refusal to secure our ambassadors on the anniversary of Sept. 11, and then compounding the miscreant action by lying about a video causing the murders. Obama still can hardly say the word, “terrorist” Maybe that’s because he’s America’s first terrorist President. Yes, Obama deserves much more than simply being kicked out of the White House on election day. But his national humiliation probably must satisfy our thirst for a real comeuppance. Let’s make a pack never again to put a mole in the White House.
He won’t carry Illinois? That’s nuts in any case. Or Vermont? Maryland?
I think you’re delusional, but I think Romney will carry Florida, VA, OH, PA, WS, MI and…wait for it…New Jersey.
Oh, please, please, please let him win NJ! This New Jersey-ite will be voting for Mitt – and this election, I am actually seeing lawn signs for R&R around the area. I am not holding my breath, but sure am hoping for the best … it would be nice to be red for a change.
Depends: if Cardinal George comes out two days before the election informing every practicing Catholic in his diocese that they are forbidden to vote for Obama under pain of mortal sin because of his position on abortion and acts of persecution against the Catholic Church, Illinois just might be in play.
For crying out loud. The economy wasn’t in any kind of serious trouble then, and Bush lost for exactly one reason: Perot.
That’s a whopper of a non-sequitur.
And he also lost because he said “Read my lips no more new taxes” and then raised taxes. That killed him.
But I don’t believe the phony job numbers will help because two in three people don’t believe them. One third of this country is truly stupid.
That may have hurt him, but,
With Perot in the race there was no way he could win, and,
Without Perot in the race, it would have been very difficult for him to lose.
Never forget; Willy won with 43%.
Dems kept saying that Bush 41 “lied” unforgivably because he broke the pledge about taxes after heavy pressure by the Dems who controlled Congress.
Then Clinton was elected promising to implement a “middle-class tax cut,” and pretty soon he was announcing, “I’ve work give you that middle-class tax cut.” And that was quickly forgiven and forgotten. I don’t remember anyone screeching that his campaign promise had been a “lie.”
Oops, some words disappeared from the quotation (as I approximately recall it): “I’ve worked harder at this than anything else in my life, and I just can’t find any way to give you that middle-class tax cut.”
I’m sure the pollsters were above 5000 feet and were confused
I’m sure they were just tired
They were tricked by Romneys notes
Obama will have a beerfest and all will be forgiven
You didn’t build that leed !
They didn’t poll all 57 states
They didn’t poll Obamaphone owners
The poll was racist !
Malia and Sasha: Dad; did you fix the polls yet ?
Those in the poll were clinging to their guns and religion
Biden: “This is a real big Fn deal !!!
One thing to notice is this meme starting to bubble up from below.
Think carefully about the Samuel Jackson “Wake the F Up” video, the Howard Stern interviewing the clueless Obama supporters, the Obama supporters in Madison wondering why he couldn’t use a teleprompter at the debate, and now this Snoop Dogg nonsense.
Add to it the creaming O got in the debate, the empty chair on the New Yorker cover this week, and Joe Biden, the gift that keeps on giving.
You get this:
Obama is nothing, and if you believe otherwise you are either an incredibly partisan Democrat or (more importantly) you are incredibly stupid.
Nobody in America wants to be thought of as incredibly stupid. In our day and age, it’s the worst thing to be.
Watch this start to take off.
The best thing about the debate is that it 1. Romney countered the false media depiction of him as a robotic bought-and-paid-for technocrat 2. Obama himself burst the false media bubble of soaring intellectual majesty and glowing compassion.
NONE of this is news to anyone who has been paying attention with a clear eye. But unfortunately, a lot of Americans do not do a good job of keeping up with reality. I think that will start to change.
Among my Progressive friends, the smartest genuinely shat a brick on social media Wednesday night. One said “I hope no one in Ohio was watching.” I’m even seeing some hardcore Leftists saying they aren’t going to support Obama anymore after his massive fail. Of course they are not going to vote Romney. But it probably means they won’t be donating any more money or time to the campaign, either.
Your friend said, “I hope no one in Ohio was watching.”
Just to be sociable and considerate, you might want to let your friend know that as nearly as I can determine, nearly EVERYONE in Ohio was watching.
“One said “I hope no one in Ohio was watching.”
We were, but you’ll never here us say a word. Our votes will do the talking.
The polls sucked yesterday, the polls suck today.
The jobs outlook sucked yesterday, the jobs outlook sucks today.
Quantum politics where jobs reports change when they are being closely observed and leap from one place to another without having to traverse the ground in between does not work above the sub-atomic level.
There is no job improvement and it depended upon census takers visiting homes and asking questions …so there’s NO ability to corrupt THOSE numbers we’re told.
Now, after a few weeks of examining how poorly the poll models are constructed, we are “soothed” by a temporary “lead” prediction? So that tomorrow they can “reverse” the “trend” back to the BS is was just days ago…and then say “You believed them when Romney took the lead, so you must believe them now”
I pass.
ANY information controlled by or dependent upon leftists and their flying monkey media are automatically unworthy of credibility. No matter what they show today..yesterday they were filled with lies and distortion and tomorrow they will be filled with more lies and distortion. We should not stop trying to uncover those lies and distortions…for any reason.
This is a classic example of ‘throwing the baby out with the bath water’. Polls are in fact biased, and always in one direction.
Saying these polls are falsely inflated is the same as accusing someone of cheating to get an F. It’s a vector not a line. If there is a bias, most likely it still under counts Rs.
I’m just hoping dems cannot maintain enough of a bias to convince people they won after they try to steal it. As Hugh Hewitt says, if it isn’t close, they can’t cheat.
Cheer up cfb, the good guys have a win and a strategy going forward.
A reminder; this was the Rasmusen poll.
I love Rasmussen. He is an honest guy in a dishonest field.
But polls in the modern world have not caught up with the modern world. And political polling has become a dirty business.
The media has made the information stream so toxic, that I simply won’t drink from it. This is not to say that the debate didn’t give Romney a bounce.
Everyone in America saw Obama get his britches beaten…or britch-slapped, if you prefer.
Then the phony and fraudulent jobs numbers “saved” Obama the next day. He got 850,000 jobs out of 114,000 created. Neat trick. And, he knows he got 850,000 jobs out of 50,000 household calls. Bringing him miraculously to the exact, precise point where he started. Amazing.
We are being fed a pack of lies and then we are being polled about how much we like the taste of them. I pass.
Months and months ago, I posted here that the jobs numbers will get better as it becomes clear the Republican is going to win the election, because business is forward-thinking by about 6 months. I predicted the improvement in numbers would be in October. I also predicted that it might defeat the Republican, as the improvement would make Obama look good. I predicted the Repub would win anyway, though, and that in the days after the election, businesses would announce all kinds of plans for expansion and hiring.
Another thought I had this morning, is that all the numbers have been headed south, lately. Perhaps that is because the skewed poll numbers have had Romney losing. That’s bad for business. Now all this revealing of the skew makes people realize the truth, and they are hiring.
These numbers of new part-time jobs may be real. If you have expansion plans and have been holding back, pending the election, this would be the way to go. Grab the talent out there; get them trained to your ways. Start expanding a bit. Be ready to go after the election.
I think the numbers are mostly real, but it is because of the impending Republican victory, like I predicted about a year ago. It’s like watching an egg fall towards the floor. You know what’s going to happen.
Except for one thing – the increase was all in part-time jobs. That’s not an indication of a confident business community.
Those part time jobs could become permanent IF Romney is voted in. Also, the employers could point out that they will be made permanent IF the new hirees vote they correct way.
Published on Oct 5, 2012 Ben Swann talks one on one with Libertarian Presidential Candidate Gary Johnson about the federal deficit, legalizing marijuana and why Johnson is polling so well in Ohio
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjFZdCKtOfc&feature=plcp
Are we going to start believing these BS polls now that they appear to favor Romney? There is no substitute for just getting out and voting.
“The generation gap remains wide. Obama leads by double digits among those under 40. Romney leads by double digits among those over 40.”
IOW Romney leads overwhelmingly among grownups. The key to that stat is will the naive wet-behind-the-ears crowd swarm out to vote like they did in 2008. I don’t thinks so, and the ones that do will be the ones who care if they find a job or not.
88% of demorats? 100% of demorat is RAT. Just look around you, every other person on average is a human RAT, a moron, a self serving POS. But wait, on the left sicko coast, it’s more like 90%.. only 1 in 10 persons you see has a soul, a brain, and is actually HUMAN, Jesus Christ.
[Do not be afraid of the ILLEGAL MILLIONS FLOODING IN FOR THE ENEMIES OF LIBERTY. But, if you can...give more to NATIONAL; STATE; AND LOCAL CANDIDATES WHO WILL RESTORE CONSERVATISM AND OUR REPUBLIC. GOD BLESS AMERICA!]
“DESPERATE CONSPIRATORS”
Their predecessors were pitiful things,
Scurrying from hovel to hole.
Believing themselves the “masters of all”
They plotted and planned for “control”.
“Control” of the scraps, and baubles, and rags,
Which the industrious created and owned.
And in all their meetings and hidden trysts,
They were sure they were quite unknown.
Modern “caves of power” are opulent now,
Rich carpets caress their feet,
They are swathed in the suits of “leaders”,
Flaunting their riches for all to see.
And still they plot and plan for control—
But their goals have grown it seems
For their Master, they would cripple souls
In a world that still seeks to be free.
With a key stroke, secret millions magically”appear”,
With a snap, minions rage and burn,
And through it all, they still recall
The scorn which their forefathers earned.
For they neither sowed, or toiled, or spun,
They just took what their betters had earned,
These secret conspirators, in their secret haunts,
Using the secrets the wicked learn.
Despite the world’s seeming adulation,
Regardless of power and wealth,
They remain the children of robbers,
Who steal victims’ lives and health.
They believe themselves above the law,
Yet One so much greater, unseen,
Knows all their plans in every land,
And He champion’s our world’s liberty.
In every land, in every time,
The reports are legion, and true.
How The Great God of Heaven succors His own,
Despite what the wicked might do.
Though they plot and plan with their master
Yet our Awesome God trumps them all,
As we pray with belief, asking Heaven’s relief,
THEN OUR FATHER SHALL ANSWER OUR CALL
Tomorrow is Sunday. We need not appear in any human house of worship to give thanks for our freedoms and to petition Heaven’s aid–BUT THAT IS A GOOD IDEA–for every race, creed, and color WHO ARE AMERICANS and who seek LIBERTY FOR OUR SELVES, OUR FAMILIES, AND THEN, ANY WHO SEEK IT.
Please, don’t start that “oh my” crap over here. Let Hot Air be Hot Air and PJM be PJM. One of the things I like most about PJM is that they do not fixate on the polls — which is just cheap journalism/blogging so far as I’m concerned.
Well, I hope Ryan can keep up the momentum with a sound beating of Biden. If he does, then that really sets the stage for a smackdown for the next Romney/Obama debate. I think Ryan will win big. All he has to do is stay focused on the facts and Obama’s record and he can’t lose. Should be fun to watch Biden get beat down in a debate.
Polls were slanted toward Obama earlier and now it’s a horse race? Since this is the Tatler, I blame Ron Paul.
This is where I agree with the conventional wisdom. The VP debate will be meaningless this year. Ryan is fairly well known, as is Biden. They both will state the usual things.
Biden will appear down-homey, Ryan will appear earnest and well prepared. O will hold his breath briefly when Biden is asked about his comments on the economy, and R will hold his breath briefly when Ryan is asked about foreign affairs.
It will be pretty much a draw, unless Ryan completely overwhelms Biden with numbers, which confuses him. A small possibility.
While I’m at it, even if the last two prez debates are dead even, which they could be (and likely will be called), Romney wins. He’s now an acceptable alternative. Nothing O does can change that. Given that, it becomes an O referendum, which he loses.
O is a terrible extemporaneous speaker, and nothing will ever change that. Coach him all you want, the best he can do at this point is tie. That’s not going to be good enough.
One other interesting thing. Unlike 1980, where this happened 7 days prior to the election, there is now an either month for the wave of anti-Obama sentiment to drown out down-ticket races for the Dems. A mini 2010, perhaps?
On November 6, the silent majority will be silent no longer. Obama will be getting the whipping of his life.
I found this ad while shopping Harleys on ebay:
2011 Black Road King Classic…The bike is loaded and had a MSRP of $20,000. The bikes been maintained every 2500 miles by a Harley dealership. Never been dropped, dinged or had any issues at all. The bike is a dream. Why am I selling? BLAME OBAMA! I lost my job and have to sell my dream bike. No, I’m not better off today than I was four years ago! But YOU will be if you buy my bike!
And this guy is in Rhode Island!
Hey, wait a minute! A week ago these pages were all alight with the news that polls are manipulated. So which is it?
They are. If Romney’s showing +2, that probably means he’s up +5 or better. Even so, Rasmussen has consistently been far more accurate than the others.
Keep remembering that Obama was elected by only 30% of registered voters. There was a 58% turnout and of the people who actually voted, 52% voted for Obama. Multiply 0.58 and 0.52 and you get 0.30. Just 30% of registered voters saddled us with Obama. Forget about the polls and just vote. Obama only won because people didn’t turn out. BTW, what about the Ron Paul supporters? Will they vote for Ron Paul even though those votes will aid Obama? Ron Paul ought to man-up and tell his followers to vote for Romney.