Long-time PJM readers will recall I’ve done a lot of crowd-size estimates. Now, the whole science of crowd estimation seems to be controversial, especially since in general the people who do crowd estimates for the legacy media seem to insist their methods are proprietary; that’s why I’ve always made an effort to be very open about it.
Sometimes, though, it’s easy. If you fill an arena with 5000 seats, you pretty well have to figure that’s a crowd of about 5000 people.
Except if it’s an Obama rally.
As noted by the blog battlegroundwatch, crowd sizes get weird in Wisconsin.
Here’s the crowd in the 5000-seat BMO Theater, from the Battlegroundwatch article:
That looks like a pretty good crowd. People at the event said there were some empty seats, but as the BGW folks said, it’s fair to say it was pretty full. Ergo, since it’s a 5000-seat venue, about 5000 people.
Once it got to Politico, is was 18,000.
Oh, all opinions are equal!
Each of those chairs had two dead voters crowding in on it, a la Pelosi’s suffragette sandwich. It’s completely fair, since this year we expect record turnout by the choir invisible.
Maybe the MSM does not think anything of turnout over 100%. It is not unheard of in some democrat dominated wards.
What is the fire marshal’s maximum allowable number of people for this particular venue? If it is 5,000—-there is no way 18,000 would be allowed inside the door, even though the fire marshal is, likely, a democrat and a union member.
– headlined The Independent article, which accepted the 18K figure. Even their press sides with him.
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports, “Obama energized his supporters who filled the 5,000-seat BMO Harris Pavilion, along with thousands more who sat in bleachers and stood on the pavement beyond the protection of the roof, even as wind and rain lashed down in the latter moments of the near 30-minute speech.” I know the venue — it’s a big park that houses a music festival in the summer. You could easily get 18,000 there.
Conservatives do themselves no favors by telling themselves they aren’t in trouble here. It’s all taking a southward turn and the longer you pretend otherwise, the worse it’s going to get.
Baloney.
There’s no way 10,000 Wisconsinites stood in the rain to hear Obamee’s nonsense, not even in Milwaukee. Hell, I wouldn’t even buy this in Dane County.
You are starting to sound like Baghdad Bob but you might want to look at the latest polls before making a fool of yourself. Gallup R46—O46, Rasmussen R47—O47.
“Conservatives do themselves no favors by telling themselves they aren’t in trouble here.”
In such trouble that Obama feels the need to campaign in a state that has gone for the leftist in every election since 1984.
Ever since the Two Hundred Fifty Thousand Million Man March, Crowd Sizes have be Far Larger for the Left than they are for the right.
Of cours I think what really happens is that the MSM looks at the Mess afterword and says of a Left Leaning Ralley – Oh it would take at least a Million People to make that big of a mess so the crowd was One Million. Then they see the Clean Spotless area left behind by a Right Leaning Crowd (such as the Tea Party) and say – To Remain that clean, only a couple of thousand showed up.
Must be using liberal math. It would explain the lack of a budget for 3+ years.
Well, a couple of elections ago Milwaukee did have a turnout of over 100%. Maybe those extra voters were there?