Today’s Gallup poll finds Mitt Romney and Barack Obama tied at the magical number of 47.
These are the results when registered voters are asked: “Suppose the presidential election were held today. If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party’s candidate and Mitt Romney were the Republican Party’s candidate, who would you vote for Barack Obama, the Democrat or Mitt Romney, the Republican?” Those who are undecided are further asked if they lean more toward Obama or Romney and their leanings are incorporated into the results.
Let’s piece a couple of things together. This rolling poll queries registered voters, not likely voters. Such polls tend to favor the Democrats. Republicans are far more motivated to vote this year than Democrats. That’s true in swing states and non-swing states and has been for months.
As the incumbent, Obama should have a built-in lead — especially in a time of crisis as we see in the Islamic world. Our embassies are under siege in a dozen countries, and such times historically favor the sitting president. Americans rally around the flag, but Obama made his own flag and has failed to lead or show that he has any idea what’s happening. His disapproval rating has climbed back above his approval rating, with the most intensity among those who most strongly disapprove of him. Obama’s handling of the current crisis — ignoring it, then trotting out his team to lie about it, and attacking free speech rather than admit the jihad against America is real and ongoing — cannot help him.
The close polls reflect a couple of things, mostly that Mitt Romney has yet to make the sale. He has not done that yet mostly because he has not yet appeared on the same stage as the president and offered himself as a plausible replacement. Romney’s first chance to do that is on Oct 3.
Update: So what about the Individual swing state polls? Well, if they’re anything like the Quinnipiac/CBS poll showing Obama leading inVirginia, the swing state polls aren’t worth much.