It’s never a bad idea to lower expectations if you’re a politician. But this seems a bit pessimistic.
Republicans currently hold 47 seats in the upper chamber but see chances to bring a number of currently Democratic seats into GOP hands, such Nebraska and Virginia, where there’s a tight race to replace retiring Sen. Jim Webb (D-Va.).
“There are a number of places where we have opportunities for pick-ups, not many places where we have much chance of losing a seat,” McConnell said on the CNN program “State of the Union.”
“I think at the end of the day we are going to have a very narrow Senate one way or the other,” he added.
McConnell said Republicans expect to win Virginia and Massachusetts, where incumbent Scott Brown (R-Mass.) is facing a challenge from Democrat Elizabeth Warren in the typically blue state.
Brown is vulnerable in Massachusetts only because he is a Republican running in the most Democratic state in the union. I wouldn’t count on him holding his seat, even though polls show him even with Elizabeth Warren.
But the GOP has an excellent chance of knocking off incumbents in Montana (Tester) and Missouri (McCaskill). And two more open seats in Wisconsin and Nebraska see strong GOP candidates favored to win at this point.
Other states like the open race in Connecticut and Florida see Democrats with the advantage. But Florida especially might surprise on election day.
In short, McConnell may be right about a narrow majority, but I’d rate the chances of a GOP takeover considerably higher. Intrade has GOP odds at gaining control at 60%, but give the party a 75% chance of winning 50 seats — a clear majority if Romney wins and a GOP vice president is the tie breaker.
Hans Solo’s advice to Luke Skywalker is apropos here: “Great kid, don’t get cocky.”
As long as McConnell keeps standing up for ObamaCare telling us that it will be really hard to repeal, that it is probably here to stay, he’s likely correct. Why give Dem-lite’s a seat when you can just go with the real thing?
McConnell and most others like him, tenured, are the systemic problem in Washington. They continue to do the exact same thing over and over again without ever making an attempt to change the outcomes. My local rep, Boehner is a nice guy and really is conservative at his roots but I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard him say “look, I know how Washington works” (verbatim). Really, you know, then why not do something about it. These “tenured” Republicans are not game changers and never will be, they are happy with the few small victories they have achieved. The Progressives didn’t sit back waiting on their Blue Dogs, they brought in the game changers and won. Term limits instituted at State level will be our only option to the tenured.
If you want a leader who will consistently lower expectations, McConnell is your man. I would vote for McConnell for previous Senate Republican leader.
If it works like it did in 2001, we’ll get an ObamaCare repeal that comes with an expiration date like Bush’s tax cuts.
RINO is as RINO Does.
He didn’t expect much in 2010 either.
I’d put it at 100%. Claire McCaskill, Jon Tester, and Ben Nelson’s seat are red in November, as are the open ND and VA seats.
That’s five right there. Dems would have to run the table and win in Nevada, Massachusetts, and keep every other seat including Sherrod Brown in Ohio, who’s going to lose by double digits. It’s not cocky, it’s fact.