In a four-man race, it doesn’t take a very big number to win a plurality of voters. In the four-man race in Florida today, Mitt Romney managed to nab almost 50%. His vote-ratio over the number two contender, Newt Gingrich, was almost 1.5-to-1. Rick Santorum managed 13%, and Ron Paul — who has never won a primary — is in single digits.
Before I continue, please know that I don’t have a horse in this race. Come November, I will vote for the GOP nominee with something like eagerness. So, please, don’t write letters fawning all over your candidate and why he’s really the guy for me to root for. I’d pinned all my hopes on a Buckaroo Banzai/Marco Rubio ticket, but that looks increasingly unlikely. It’s not just that I don’t have a horse in this race, I’m not even shopping for a saddle blanket.
On Saturday, Nevada voters will hold their caucus. Paul does well in small-state caucuses, and I suspect Nevada will be no different. However, Romney has money and NV has a large Mormon minority. He will likely do better there than Paul. Nobody else has a ground game there. Maine starts its rolling caucus on the same day, ending on the 11th. Romney will win there for the same reasons he won New Hampshire.
In a week, Colorado, Minnesota, Missouri. The first two are caucus states, and MO’s primary vote is non-binding. Paul doesn’t have the money to compete in multiple states at once. None of those states are hostile to Romney. None of those states are big enough to do him much damage, even if they were.
Feb 18: Guam. Nobody cares, least of all Guam.
The last states to hold primaries before Super Tuesday are Arizona and Michigan. Both primaries are closed, so no chances for a Democratic-flavored Operation Chaos. Michigan is Romney’s old stomping ground. Arizona, again, has a large Mormon community. And Romney has shown, for whatever reason, that he can hold his own with conservative Republicans. If any of the non-Romneys are hoping for a knockout blow on February 28, they’re likely to come away disappointed.
I noted during the debates last fall, that Romney appeared to be setting up Florida as his firewall state. Coming out of a big NH win, SC was always going to be Romney’s weak spot — and that’s exactly how it turned out. The remaining question was: Would the firewall hold?
We have the answer to that tonight, and it’a a resounding yes. It’s been Romney’s gameplan likely for four years now, and he played it pretty well.
I’ve outlined why, gearing up for Super Tuesday, there aren’t any big (or very realistic) chances for a not-Romney to break Mitt’s Flo-Mo before the big day. In other words, this is likely where Romney’s near-inevitable inevitability starts coming into play. He has the money, he has the organization, and he has a pretty easy ride over the next month.
So is it Mitt? Barring a string of unlikely upsets by underfunded candidates in a string of states that don’t matter all that much… yeah, it’s probably Mitt.
I don’t like that, but I will accept it.
If it is Mitt, I sure hope doesn’t expect conservatives to “have his back.”
I certainly won’t, as he’s no conservative. And I have no loyalty to the GOP. Their credibility is shot.
Nobody should have any politician or any political party’s back. That is what got us into this mess. While we have been going about our business trying to make a living, both parties have been tearing down the Constitutional limitations on the power of government–spending money we don’t have and erecting agencies that wield unchecked power in violation of the Constitution. No matter who gets elected, we can’t sit back and trust any politicians to do the right thing. We need to educate and motivate our fellow citizens to hold our representatives accountable and pressure whomever gets elected to return to the Constitution. There is no “right” person we can elect to make everything better. We are past that point. The people have to take back their government from both parties. If that doesn’t work, we have to fall back on the right of the people to abolish and erect new forms of government. That is what the Founders did and what we must do, reluctantly, when the government we have fails to secure our inalienable rights. (See Declaration of Independence, 1776.) The price of liberty is eternal vigilance.
Mitt has to get 51%.
I don’t think he can if Santorum and Paul can last another 30 days or so. In fact, that should be the goal of the conservative money – keep the anyone but Mitt numbers alive.
Romney does not have to get to 51%. The GOP has plenty of winner-all-states, like Florida tonight, where a plurality win will net him 100% of the delegates.
Ugh.
Last year I was licking my chops for 2012. Obama was obviously ripe for the picking and to destroy him seemed like a relatively easy task. Hell. He’d gone full on Marxist, seizing private property, Obamacare, flouting the Constitution on every level. Obama is a horror show.
I was optimistic and energized, but somehow Republicans used their skill and skullduggery to destroy my optimism and energy. It’s what they do.
And it disgusts me that Mitt spent millions destroying his opposition using Alinsky tactics against his fellow Repubs, destroying the conservative message in the process.
I feel like we’ve entered the Bataan Death March phase of the Republican primary where a year ago I thought we’d be unified, energized and coalescing around the perfect candidate to evict the worst president in American history.
Instead we’ve got the Republican establishment beating us, driving us, and pushing the dead to the side of the road.
Maybe some MacArthur will come to rescue us from the internment camp at Cabanatuan, but maybe Romney will stop him if he senses him as a threat.
A second Obama term will usher in a dictatorship and we’ve got the cute Mormon to stop him.
I think there’s no doubt that if Gingrich dropped out right now, most of his votes would go to Santorum. Then Romney is in real trouble because Santorum has none of Gingrich’s obvious character flaws and record of erratic behavior, making it easy for Conservatives to unite behind him. So Romney’s easy path to the nomination is only as inevitable as Gingrich’s inevitable selfishness — excuse me, nowadays we’re supposed to say “ego” — in refusing to take one for the Conservative team and withdrawing from the race before most of the delegates are selected.
Heck, if Gingrich were a real political thinker instead of fundamentally just a bad-tempered loud mouth, he would withdraw, publicly endorse Romney (in return for the promise of a cabinet appointment should Romney become president) and at the same time privately point out to Santorum how the withdrawal helps consolidate the conservative vote (which should get him a promise from Santorum to give him a cabinet post should Santorum become president). That’s obviously the best tactic for Gingrich at this point: Do the right thing for the Republican party and get well-paid for doing it.
Gingrich and Romney split the Tea Party vote virtually evenly, 38/40.
That indicates that Romney is a comfortable second (or first) choice for Tea Part voters — which means Santorum has the most to lose from Newt dropping out.
Stephen: Love the blog and greetings from a fellow Coloradan (psst, don’t tell anyone how nice the weather is here today). My concern with Gingrich contimues to be the “October surprise” issue. Once we have our candidate, I expect even the Henry Saddleburr’s of the world to work to get rid of this presidency. I sincerely believe the only way Obama is re-elected is if something comes out that makes our candidate un-electable. He did it in the IL senate race, he did it in his Senatorial campaign in ’06, and you just know Axelrod is planning something for this go-round. Which of the current four is that most likely to involve? Gingrich is a serial philanderer who cheated on his first wife with his second and on his second with his third. Are we to believe he always marries the “other woman”? Are we to believe he has never made an unwelcomed pass, e.g., “sexual harassment”? I can well imagine a “Gennifer Flowers moment” involving Newt arising in the Fall, except this time (unlike Clinton) he won’t have the MSM covering for him. We cannot risk this election, and we cannot risk this scenario. Paul is unelectable (raaaaaacist!). That leave Santorum and Mitt, with the former not even electable in his home state and the latter with much more carry among indies and suburbanites. Strategically, he makes the most sense. Ideologically, I agree with the commenter that we need the Tea Party to hold Congress’s feet to the fire even if (when?) a President Romney waivers. Look forward to the caucus next week.
Maine would not surprise me if it instead went to Ron Paul. Remember which state was Ross Perot’s high water mark? Yep, Maine.
My first choice didn’t run, neither did my second choice, and the actual candidates I had some hopes for proved not to be up to the task.
There is enough uncertainty in the world, and in politics, that nothing is certain at this date, a lot could change. Economic calamity, international conflict, natural disasters, unexpected health or behavioral issues, all kinds of things could surprise us between now and the election.
What is certain is that those vested in the current administration will fight hard, and perhaps dirty, to cling to office for another presidential term. They will have plenty of resources on their side, and will make a very tough campaign out of what advantages they hold. Whoever is the GOP selection will have to be at the top of his or her game, and will have to articulate a positive agenda while drawing a strong contrast with the opponents. None of that has happened yet, and it is worrying that we have not seen more signs of such confidence and competence.
I’d pinned all my hopes on a Buckaroo Banzai/Marco Rubio ticket, but that looks increasingly unlikely
The Newtonian Implosion is on a search and destroy mission, not a win. They lack money, they are laughably disorganized, their candidate is uncontrollable, and he is going to run his goofy campaign strategy on a shoestring.
He is on a Toffler Tour for cognitarians…and along the way he is going to put a contract out on Mitt Romney’s political career.
Gingrich has virtually no endorsements…no sitting governors, no Senators, no congressmen, no ex-Presidents, no UN ambassadors, nobody from his staff who worked with him, no major pundits, …he is nothing but a human wrecking ball.
And that’s how he’s going to swing.
Santorum’s ONLY chance, is if The Newtonian Implosion blows itself out of the water and the Newtie Tutti Frutti’s ALL wander over to Rick’s place to have a drink and do a little gambling (I’m shocked, shocked, mind you that they would), to give the Non-Romney’s Last Stand a little big horn boost.
Frankly, if they BOTH stay in…waiting out the other until AFTER super Tuesday, the combined efforts of Paul, Gingrich and Ssntorum COULD deprive Romney of the delegate total necessary before the convention.
That jello wrestling festival will be a free for all. Our buddy, Banzai may become necessary as a “consensus” candidate. Not a chance the Romney or Gingrich people lay down for the other guy.
Not a chance Paul plays nicely…or sane.
Santorum COULD pitch himself as the “consensus” candidate…certainly to Newt. But threading that ball through a very narrow and sticky wicket…seems not likely to fit.
There is genuine anger between the Gingrich-Romney camps. The Republican “establishment” could tell him they won’t let him make another dime in that town…but that’s not likely to back the Unstable Newtrino down. He would simply jump to Nancy Pelosi’s lap/couch or Fannie/Freddie and switch teams.
Our “Buckaroo” comes off the bench as the “A” teamer, “consensus” candidate.
The VP slot goes to Allen West, not Rubio…because of the redistricting issue.
Could happen.
Or Mitt wins and picks Bob McDonnell.
Dude. Seriously. Lay off the Sterno, ok?