The latest University of New Hampshire Survey Center/WMUR poll shows former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney with a wide lead over Herman Cain who finished a distant second:
Romney, a former governor from neighboring Massachusetts, leads the Republican field with 37 percent support in the poll released late on Friday by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center/WMUR. Cain trails with 12 percent, followed by Texas congressman Ron Paul at 9 percent and former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman at 8 percent.
“Romney is solid here and has the highest favorability ratings, and he’s had those for two years,” said Andrew Smith, director of the polling group. “It’s kind of an obstacle course for the front-runner, but as long as they make it through those obstacles they win.”
In the polling group’s last poll in July, Romney had 35 percent support.
New Hampshire’s primary, traditionally the first in the nation, could be held in early January or even December following moves by other states to bring forward their primaries or caucuses.
New Hampshire’s mostly moderate Republicans had little love for Tea Party favorites Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann.
Texas Governor Perry drew just 4 percent, tied with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, and Minnesota congresswoman Bachmann lagged at just 2 percent.
Perry was not expected to do well in New Hampshire anyway so this poll is not really a surprise. Cain’s current weakness also shows how entrenched Mitt Romney is in a state that borders Massachusetts and has many former Bay State residents who fled high tax hell in order to live in friendlier confines.
This may be something of a misreading. The Cain surge is just beginning and that you would even see it in NH is surprising.
Just for some perspective, past winners of New Hampshire include McCain in 2000 (when Bush was the nominee) and Pat Buchanan in 1996.
He who wins New Hampshire does not always win the GOP nomination.
Also, NH was where Hillary Clinton won.
True, but since Romney claims to be a Republican, I was concentrating on GOP primaries.
There’s a definite downside to Romney’s being a lock in New Hampshire.
If he’s expected to win overwhelming, then his win will be discounted by the media and he mightn’t get the momentum boost he could’ve enjoyed from a win in a closer, harder fought contest.
What’s more, if he underperforms (i.e., if Cain or Perry or someone else places a very solid, impressive second), the media will proclaim the second place finisher the moral victor in that contest, a la Cronkite’s declaration re Gene McCarthy in ’68.
Finally, his rivals may invest their time and other resources in Iowa or South Carolina or Florida, and the media’s eyes will look to these states as the decisive battlegrounds.
Romney must win decisively in a state other than New Hampshire in the early primaries, and I don’t mean either Nevada or Michigan. I’d guess Florida is probably his make or break.
It’s really amazing how narrow the path to victory is for each and every one of the declared candidates.
Very good points… I expect to see Romney’s camp doing everything they can to lower expectations next week.
NH was always thought of as Libertarian Rugged and then they turned into Environmental Religious Freaks believing they could control the weather.
This is why NH continues to be supporters any Environmental Religious Freaks like Romney-the Handraiser for Global Warming Fraud.
During the NH 2008 election debates it was a tight race between Environmental Religious Freaks Handraiser McCain and Handraiser Romney; Romney won, he raised his hand higher.
Romney leading in the NE is no big surprise. He is a East coast, compassionate, say anything like GWB to get elected RINO, flip-flopping politician.
We deserve better!
You can tell that he is the MSM’s choice for the Republican nomination by the fact that they very rarely have anything bad to say about him. This is just one more reason that I dislike him and his RINO principals.
The leftist MSM depicts Romney as more “Centrist”. I consider that an almost disqualifying indictment. Romney is merely playing to not lose. This is a dangerous strategy if he cannot develop any momentum. My pick is Cain – he is genuine. I just don’t know if he has enough money to stay in the game.
Don’t know why these pundits seem to think Romney has such a good chance. He got stomped by the weak candidate McCain in 2008. And in the current race, his poll numbers have never been all that great, even though he has been campaigning the longest, has the most name recognition, and has spent the most money so far.
The fact that he is routinely getting out-polled by novices like Cain shows just how weak a candidate he is.
I was leaning towards Perry early on, but after watching Cain’s awesome speech at VVS, he’s now my man!
I’m a Cain supporter, but what Perry’s pastor said is true; several Christian denominations do not consider Mormonism to be Christian. There are doctrinal differences between Christianity and LDS, no matter how many Mormons throw temper tantrums. Many evangelicals WILL NOT vote for someone they don’t consider to be Christian, even other groups that worship the Judeo-Christian God.
Is it a cult? The LDS Church is on Rick Ross’ website (read his disclaimer), never a good thing.
Over the past few decades New Hampshire has slowly morphed into Vermontachusetts; lots pretty, picturesque forests and mountains but infested with a sea of left-leaning immigrants from south-of-the-border. That Mitt has become the local favorite is water-is-wet unexpected!