Nicholas Kronos has a fascinating essay on the future of Japan — and the potential lack thereof:
The Japanese are a resilient people who proved themselves capable of a miracle recovery after World War II. Even so, their 2011 population is an aging one, with almost one in four Japanese over 65. As difficult as such demographics are for a stagnant economy to support, rebuilding economic prosperity to its previous levels with such a workforce challenges credibility. It seems to me–even should the nation avoid the ultimate disaster of Chernobyl-type nuclear accidents rendering its scarce land resource even scarcer through 1,000-year half-life contamination–reconstructing Japan will require something like the Marshall Plan.
The United States no longer can provide that level of assistance, but perhaps the Chinese–their coffers bristling with reserves from years of trade surpluses–can. Thus far, I am not aware of any large-scale assistance from the one long enemy to the other, and it seems that a Japanese decline should, in fact, benefit the Chinese. Nevertheless, a competitor’s misfortune may be a wise investment opportunity.
Thus, aside from all the human tragedy that has thus far occurred and the risks for far greater that could well end in making this the greatest natural disaster in modern times–recall that the fire after the San Francisco earthquake of 1906 caused 90 percent of the damage–I also see a great loss for America.
As Amity Shlaes wrote at the very beginning of 2007′s The Forgotten Man, brilliantly — and tacitly — linking a natural disaster in the late 1920s which inadvertently stage set for Hoover, FDR, and the calamity of the following decade with Katrina and our own dormant economy,”Floods change the course of history, and the flood of 1927 was no exception.”
(More after the page break.)
There is an analysis here of the likely implications of Japan’s dependence on Persian Gulf oil.
I read articles like this which seem to somewhat accept a downward trajectory as inevitable — and I can’t help but wonder: is anyone still willing to fight — actually FIGHT for the legacy of our forebears? I am. The crumbling of our civilization didn’t start yesterday, and honestly there’s blame to be heaped on both sides of the political divide, such as it is… But it is not yet written that we must succumb – and we would be undserving of everything we’ve been given if we are not willing to now fight to rebuild from those crumbling walls. It has never been clearer to me the detrimental effects of marxist schemes such as social engineering, social welfare, and social justice have robbed us of our birthright. We are the victims of a heinous theft.
The crimes of the Right are great, but they are largely comprised of sins of omission… For generations the Right has betrayed America by ignoring the fundamentals on which it should have stood. Instead of defeating the steady subversion of our civilization by our enemies on the Left, we have compromised with them, and thereby compromised America. The Left’s sins, on the other hand, are sins of commission, designed to remake man in the image of the working cog in the magnificent machine of Marxist utopia. The Left’s sin against America is far worse, and compromise with them has always left America stranded further and further in the wilderness of doom.
Time for this to stop. I like the fact that we once proudly manufactured everything that the world wanted. I like the fact that we invented everything worth having. We once valued the individual, exhorted the pioneer, and celebrated our accomplishments without qualification, without apology, without shame. The “context” didn’t need to be explained — simply put We Were Great Once. We must fight to be great again. There is really no other choice.
I don’t think the article does that, but it may well be the direction in which we are heading. The United States is in bad shape financially and little effective is being done to make it better; quite a lot is being done to make it worse. There seems to be a widespread perception that governments — federal, state and local — the bigger and more intrusive the better, are the fountains of economic prosperity and they are not. “Clean energy,” while maybe nice and potentially (but only very slightly) diminishing our reliance on foreign oil, a good thing, is neither currently nor in the near future a substitute for the “dirty” energy resources we have in substantial abundance. Nuclear energy in the United States? Never very much alive, it now seems to be dead or dying. Multiculturalism and its close cousin, lack of respect for American exceptionalism, are politically correct and counterproductive .
We were once a proud nation, proud of our country and proud of ourselves; we were determined to prosper and to do what was necessary to make that happen. Reliance on government handouts generally (but not always, e.g., agricultural and many other subsidies) was considered shameful. Now, they are demanded and given; those who would diminish them are deemed inhumane Scrooges or worse. We downplay and mask the activities of the Religion of Peace and others wishing to bury or to surpass us, hoping that if they feel accepted and not threatened they will go easy on us.
There are ways, incrementally, to get out of this mess; but we need to do more than hope for change to implement them.
Yes, Japan is a wreck. It has an over abundance of elderly people because it has enjoyed a couple of generations of The Good Life.
And so have we in the West.
But give your head a shake: people have lived through the Black Plague, when at least half of their neighbours/relatives died and were buried in mass graves; after WWII, all of Europe and Russia were filled with populations on the move, refugees, destroyed cities, etc.; And this, without grief counselors!!!
The Japanese, once they clear that mess up, will re-build their country. They will not be as powerful as they are now, for a long time, but they will very likely fact their own problems (no children, anyone?) and solve them.
I am not sure about the Nuclear Reactor situation. Drudge is freaking out, as is the (Obama appointed) Surgeon General. But, since I cannot do anything about this, and I don’t live in Japan, I guess I’ll NOT panic!!
All this uproar may be good for us comfortable Westerners, by the way. We have needed a wake up call for awhile now.
Well let’s see. The Japanese went from a medieval empire to one of the most powerful modern countries in 3 generations. Then they were crushed in an apocalyptic war. 2 generations later, many thought they were poised to rule the world, at least economically.
That culture is unique in the history of the world. Old people and natural disasters aren’t going to knock them out of the water.
The world is about to watch and learn what hard work and national unity can do…for the 3rd time in only 150 years.
I don’t see recovery this time. Demographic decline will persist for decades, even if Japanese people and government change for the better starting today with free markets, spending cuts, and more children. It is unavoidable, and the demographic decline feeds the spending, debt, and government sclerosis. Furthermore, Japanese are not accepting of immigration at any noticeable scale, which could buy them time to get their house in order. It is almost inevitable that Japanese living standards will begin to fall in coming years due to the massive debt. Europe is not as bad, but still will have difficulty avoiding a similar fate. America Alone has the
children, political will (I hope), and immigrants to avoid stagnation
and decline. Interestingly, I therefore expect increased immigration of young, ambitious, educated youth from Europe and Japan, if we have the brains to dump our family reunification immigration policy and get a handle on illegals. In other words, America will be the only wealthy nation with a growing population, and a rising standard of living. The gap between our living standards and those of the other so called first world nations is about to yawn wide. Hopefully the US and India will be enough to keep the light of freedom alive, and the others will correct their errors as soon as possible. That has the best chance of happening if we set a good example for them to follow. As usual, the best thing America can do for the world is to do what is good for America.
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Though the Japanese do have an explicit policy of researching robots, especially to take care of the old. Might work, but I think it’s a little silly to think a nation of robots and old people is gonna be a pleasant or growing place.
How can the decline of a major trading partner be of benefit to China? China may have ust lost a major market for its products, a source of innovation that spurs its economy forward, and a source a geopolitical stability in the region that created a stable, relatively peaceful free trade zone. The decline of Japan is NOT good for China, just like it’s not good for the rest of us.