Egypt’s Economic Breakdown Deepens the Crisis
Prospective economic ruin has energized Egypt’s political crisis since the fall of Hosni Mubarak in January 2011. Mohammed Morsi’s Islamists and the opposition are not battling in the streets of Egyptian cities about economics, to be sure, but about how to govern a country that cannot meet the basic needs of most of its citizens. Egypt’s pound dropped suddenly on the foreign exchange market Thursday as the country’s central bank announced a drop in foreign exchange reserves during November. If the pound collapses–and it is hard to see how this can be avoided–the cost of necessities will soar and the crisis will deepen.
Egyptian Pounds to US Dollar
Egyptian news media are reporting signs of crumbling as the country’s cash runs out. Western media have focused on the politics and the street fighting, but have reported almost nothing about the breakdown of economic life. Arab-language media, though, are full of alarming news. A few examples:
- The Food Industries Association warned Nov. 27 that lack of foreign exchange to purchase food commodities may reduce food imports by 40% during the next several months. Egypt imports half its total food consumption. Upper Egypt already is suffering a drop in food supplies (I presume other than state-subsidized bread) by 40%. Banks are refusing to provide financing for food imports because importers are already deeply in arrears.
- The Misr Beni Suef Cement company shut five plants due to a natural gas shortage.
- An epidemic of bird flu threatens to destroy Egypt’s chicken population because of a lack of natural gas to heat poultry farms.
- Egypt’s government electricity company warned that the provision of power is in danger because government agencies are 15 billion Egyptian pounds (US $2.5 billion) in arrears on their electricity bills.
- Gas and diesel supplies at filling stations are down 70% from normal levels since President Mohammed Morsi’s constitutional declarations.
- Shortage of fertilizer has cut agricultural exports by 10%, according to the Agricultural Export Council, and it is likely that overall production has fallen by a similar margin.
In thirty-five years of following debt crises in emerging economies, I have never seen anything like this. Latin American economies suffered from hyperinflation during the 1970s and 1980s, but no-one went hungry, because the economies in question all exported food, while Egypt imports half its food. The difference between Egypt and a banana republic is — the bananas.






I liked your latest Erdogan article, but wonder why PJ media doesn’t? Still waiting for the Egyptian and Turkish stock meltdowns…
There’s nothing in American news at all about bird flu in Egypt. It sounds like this information is ignored for a reason.
“We are bored with Egypt. Stop talking about it pls”……..’>……….
“Second, we should not throw good money after bad. American taxpayers are under no obligation to pour money down the drain.”
But try explaining that to the IRS.
Since Egypt has stopped exports to Israel and Jordan as a direct consequence of islamist sabotage; how on Earth can their wholesale natural gas supplies collapse so quickly?
It strikes me that the cement plant can’t pay its bills and has been cut off.
It can’t pay its bills because its customers can’t pay theirs.
Further, construction demand has collapsed, itself.
For all of the heavy construction inside Egypt has an ‘army connection.’
So, rather than running out of methane, Cairo is running out of cash.
One can only imagine what such a disruption must mean to the construction trades.
I further surmise that the poultry farmers are not paying their gas bills, either.
Morsi has already taken the economy over the cliff.
That’s quite an achievement for a PhD.
I pray that he gives Barry a ‘heads-up’ as to how the event horizon looks when descending.
The imperious navigator needs to know — and how.
It looks like fear is spreading in Israel, Brussels, Washington and Moscow that Jabhat al-Nusra is displacing FSA as the dominant force fighting against Assad, and may soon capture syrian chemical weapons.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-rt-us-syria-chemicals-israelbre8b418y-20121205,0,4475993.story
And we have more than good reason to fear what is going on in Syria, all ‘credit’ due to the regional hell fires set by the Islmaist-in-Chief – http://adinakutnicki.com/2012/12/07/the-middle-east-ready-to-explode-via-syria-commentary-by-adina-kutnicki/
And no one should be foolish enough to believe that the gangsters running Washington want to reveal how dire the economic situation is in Egypt, after all, it is the Pyromaniac-in-Chief who dictated to Mubarak – GO NOW!
So, in the same malevolent/mendacious manner in which the regime did not want the US citizens to know that Al Qaeda was alive and well – despite Osama’s death – they continue to lie about Benghazigate in order to spin their tales, pretending that Al Qaeda did not have a hand in American deaths in Libya!
Amid these gas shortages, is Egypt still exporting gas? If yes.. who profits?
Good analyses. We might have some sort of responsibility for what goes on in Egypt in that we (US, Israel, etc.) had been in bed with Mubarak since the assaination of Sadat more than 30 years ago. I would imagine a stable Islamic republic would be a hell of a lot better than a completely destabilized mess. Egypt with 80MM people is a hell of a lot different than a place like Syria with 20MM.
We have been paying for a service. If the service stops, the payment stops.
Why do we have “responsibility” over Egypt? We did not cause their lack of family planning, their antisemitism, their corruption, their muslim fanaticism. We gave them money and in return we received hatred and most of the 9/11 hijackers, If their leaders stole half the funds we supplied, well then the people still received half they did not deserve. I am heartily sick of these people with their endless complaints and agressions and whining and ingratitude. Does China give them anything? And yet their hatred is reseved for us. Yes, we support Israel but if that is the cause of their hatred, it only shows how sick and twisted their priorities really are. We saved them from war, we pressured Israel to give them the Sinai but because we do support the destruction of Israel, we are hated. I want nothing to do with them and feel zero responsibility for them.
The only thing more diseased than their hatred is their love.
Be grateful.
Agreed … let them stew in their own infidel-hating, misogynistic, medieval juices. The only responsibility we have is to not let them flood into the US. And for the tiny handful of Egyptians who’ve heard of the 21st century and want to flee their broken country, let them seek asylum in Tunisia or Libya.
Well said!
…but because we do support the destruction of Israel, we are hated.
I assume you meant to say:
…but because we do NOT support the destruction of Israel, we are hated.
Correct sir – just a typo – as I hope is evidenced by the rest of the paragraph.
There was 30 years of peace and the overall living/economic conditions much better than now. “A stable Islamic republic”? what is that? your comment makes no sense…..
True enough. When they pause from trying to kill each other they make some attempt to kill westerners. We need to keep them focused on the first job at hand.
Hey………
Love the new format to your page, it really adds better access to your other writings.
A little over a year ago I bet my Egyptian friend $100 that at least a million Egyptians would die by Jan 1 2013. This would be from starvation and the ensuing chaos. Any chance of this happening? Id REALLY hate to lose $100. It would be a real tragedy if I lose my bet. I mean they are all gonna die anyways!
Spengler, u have always said that you dont have the best timing when it comes to trading markets. Your VIX trade was about 6 weeks ahead of its time. Maybe I trick my friend to go double or nothing for another year! The chaos and devastation is a certainty for sure But alas the Egyptians breakdown can be erratic longer than I can stay solvent!
“Burn Baby Burn…Egyptian Inferno” (chorus)
I guess its really not nice for me to gloat at the potential death of all those people. Even if they are the enemies of civilization, as a Jew, it is wrong (according to Ethics of the Fathers) to rejoice at the death of my enemies.
Good thing Im not religious!!!
Burn Baby Burn!!!
I fail to see how Mohamed ElBaradei would be any better. His record on the international stage with the IAEA was marked by the addition of two nations to the nuclear club (Pakistan and North Korea) and substantial work by a third (Iran) — all while he assured the world that everything was under control and picking up a Nobel Peace Prize for his failure.
You are right about El Baradei – but I agree with Spengler that he is still the lesser of 2 evils and the U.S. should back him. A Muslim Brotherhood dictatorship under Morsi would be terrible for women, Copts and other minorities,
not to mention secular and moderate Muslim men. It might eventually result in a
war with Israel (which Israel would win) and would encourage Islamists in all of the Middle East and North Africa.
You know, I’ve wondered what would happen if Egypt foolishly started another war with Israel. Here’s one crazy possible thought experiment:
Israel wins resoundingly in a conventional war, while the rest of the Middle East and the EU jaw-jaws, but essentially does nothing further. Like they did once before, Israel again takes the Sinai. This time, however, they offer it lock, stock and barrel to the Palestinians for a homeland (it already shares a border with Gaza), and even offers assistance to get things set up.
After that, who knows what will happen, but this could be interesting.
A time on target multiple missile strike on the Aswan Dam, base and sides and down the middle, and Egypt is essentially gone. The water wall would do away with Cairo. Instant return to the 1800′s for Egyptian living standards.
If they really wanted to do damage, they could hit the upstream dams in Sudan, and time the Aswan strike for when the upstream water wall hits Lake Nassar…
Regarding the four things you say the US should not do-
My prediction is that they will do all four. Obama just poured in four billion a couple of weeks ago via the International Monetary Fund. We love ratholes. We’re in one ourselves, but most people don’t know it yet. What is that the Marxists say – the worse the better?
Article in the paper today noting that we continue to deliver M1 tanks and F-16s to Egypt which has the largest army in Africa by far. Our incompetence knows no limit.
Sending M1 and F16 to Egypt is a joke. How they plan to use them without oil to fuel the beasts and move them around?
I am against sending even a penny of US foreign aid to any Islamic country.
Agreed, not a penny to any Islamic dominated country.
David,
You know what the endgame to this as predicted by Pastor Lindsey Williams is don’t you? Several million Egyptian boat people including some persecuted Copts headed to the EU and U.S.A. And Obama will take in the Muslim Brothers among them with open arms.
‘Egyptian boat people’
The fear of millions of Egyptian refugees is probably why the EU and the US have been funding Egypt all these years. However, as the law of unintended consequences dictates, all this money has allowed an explosion in population — and now there will be more Egyptian refugees than ever.
Foreign aid/money has destroyed the concept of people living (and reproducing) within their means.
Fear of North African boat people heading for Europe is one reason we got involved in Libya. But if “Morsi may attempt to justify an Egyptian annexation of oil-rich Libya” maybe that would forestall that problem. I wonder. I can’t see any other way out for Egypt but to take Libya. They have the cannon-fodder in abundance, and nothing to lose.
Mike — Even though the Egyptian military is one of the largest in the world, it hasn’t fought all that well in the past. If you remember, in one war, Egypt bombed all the runways, which kept Egypt’s aircraft in their hangers.
OTOH, the Eastern Province of Libya, Cyrenaica (which includes Benghazi), has some of the most tested fighters/terrorists on the planet. They fought us in Iraq and Afghanistan and, then, we helped them win against Qadaffi. These fighters also appear to be winning in Syria. If they needed land — which they don’t [Libya is 2-3 times the size of Texas], they could probably take the western part of Egypt. They could also stage terrorist attacks in Cairo that would scare the hell out of everyone.
If Egypt attacks, get the popcorn. Its military might prove itself to be a paper tiger. Right now, they’re fat and wealthy. Why put that in jeopardy? Bottom line: Although, the Egyptian people may need money, the military doesn’t.
Israel bombed the runways
And on top of the above Exodus (pun intended) of Egyptians, we may also see a desperate Morsi annexing oil and gas rich eastern Libya…while officially maintaining the fictional border, of course. Who’s going to stop the Egyptian army tanks, the Ansar al Shariah boys the CIA funded to overthrow Gaddafi and then was stunned by when they killed Amb. Stevens?
Spengler’s theme of demographic and spiritual exhaustion preceding and directly leading to economic decline is going mainstream, this time with Ross Douthat in the New York Times:
http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2012/12/i-basically-agree-with-ross-douthat-here.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/02/opinion/sunday/douthat-the-birthrate-and-americas-future.html?hp&_r=0
A blessed weekend to all Spengler fans.
According to the Cristian Science Monitor of 2-10-2012:
“They’re trying to provoke [the severing of US aid],” says Robert Springborg, an expert on the Egyptian military at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, Calif. “Because they’re desperate and they want to present themselves as popular defenders of the nation. So what better way to do it?”
Furthermore, he argues, “It wouldn’t mean a thing” to Egypt’s military were the aid to stop. “A great bulk of that has gone into the procurement of weapons systems that have not been used, are not likely to be used, and that [Egyptian forces] haven’t been properly trained on.”
The $1.3 billion in aid isn’t given as cash to Egypt’s military. Instead, it is used to buy US-made military equipment for Egypt, or to pay for upgrades or maintenance for military equipment. In the past, Egypt has used the assistance, which makes up at least 20 percent of its military budget, to buy equipment like Apache helicopters, F-16 fighter jets, M-60A3 and M1A1 tanks, and armored personnel carriers. Egypt has already placed orders, for 2012 and 2013, for F-16s and M1A1 Abrams tanks. Egypt’s military also regularly sends officers to the US for training.
Springborg says Egypt does not properly maintain many of the M1A1 Abrams tanks, does not have all of them in service, and does not regularly train servicemen on them. The F-16s, he says, are “dumbed-down” versions that are “not effective fighting planes.”
“These are just trinkets,” says Springborg. “Militarily, they don’t mean anything. [Defacto leader Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein] Tantawi knows that full and well. … Cutting off military aid is not a real threat. It’s a hollow threat on our part.”
So, if this is true, then things are not what they seem to be.
Quantity has a quality all of its own. The Egyptian military was very credible in the opening stages of 1973 and its numbers alone are worth something. Except for the US and Turkey, Egypt could match any NATO army in numbers. That might not be saying much any more, but to Libya, it certainly has meaning. Even against Israel, Egyptian numbers and its large Navy and missile force are not to be dismissed. If Egypt wanted the US to sever aid, all it has to do is say the treaty with Israel is finished. And Morsi’s popularity would soar at the same time. But that is not yet something they want. They want the aid, they want the weapons and we are obliging them. Totalitarians always want the weapons.
“The Egyptian military was very credible in the opening stages of 1973″
In 1973 Israel was taken by surprise. Once the IDF was fully mobilized the situation turned around very quickly. Just to be outnumbered was never really a problem for the Israeli Army. Your analysis is nonsense…
Your analysis is arrogant and idiotic. The canal crossing was impressive by the standards of any army. Please review Dr. Asher’s book on the Egyptian strategy in 1973 if you want to learn something. Arrogance as yours is what causes defeat in battle.
Steve, I have read it. “The Egyptian Strategy for the Yom Kippur War: An Analysis” by Dr. Danny Asher. He gives Egypt strong credit for their performance. But I am sure Mr. Capio knows more than Dr. Asher – Asher was only in Israeli military intelligence for over 40 years and had access to all captured Egyptian documents. The book is a sobering read.
I am not offering an analysis
The greatest failure in the history of Israel’s intelligence collection agencies (IDF intelligence, Aman, Mossad, Shin Bet) was not anticipating Egypt’s attack in October 1973. (see: Agranat Comission Report)
Fact: IDF was not prepared and was taken by surprise
Fact: IDF was out-manned and out-gunned
Fact: Sadat’s planing and strategy was excellent and superior relative to previous assaults from Egypt (Dani Asher)
Fact: ISRAEL WON
So, your foul language and personal attack and DodgerUSA’s sarcasm is misplaced…
LOL. Nothing you have stated refutes my sentence – the Egyptians were very credible in the opening stages of 1973. Their assault of the Suez Canal was classic, practically perfectly executed, and DodgerUSA is funny and right on point. As for Israeli mistakes. every military victory takes two sides, each doing his own part. The Egyptians made far worse mistakes against Israel in 1967. Dr. Asher spent 40 years in MI and his analysis was not only about the surprise but about the crossing and defense of the crossing. As for Israel “winning” – we suffered almost 3000 dead and eventually had to give back the Sinai. Any more victories such as that and we are lost. By the way, not that this is provable here in this context, but I am Israeli and worked in the Ministry of Defense for 7 years. Arrogance as yours is always dangerous. You are right though about one thing – I should not have said your analysis was idiotic – there was no analysis at all.
Springborg is talking through his hat.
The previous Soviet era heavy equipment is GONE.
The only tanks that Egypt can count on are the American ones.
The F-16s are not up to fighting the Israelis — just everyone else in the neighborhood.
A lot of the all-weather electronics is a very poor deal for the Egyptians. Their weather comes in tow flavors: sandstorm or clear. 24-hour warfare is beyond all of their Arab opponents. So, to acquire it is meaningless.
The actual maintenance of the American gear is farmed out to contractors — themselves paid by America – -if they’re American contractors. Only light, routine, maintenance is handled within their military. This is the norm for all Arab militaries.
What the regime WOULD like to see is a termination of the largesse that makes its way though the Egyptian Army.
As noted above, the EA owns a massive piece of the Egyptian economy.
Morsi & Co. are tearing their hair out trying to figure a way to steal that piece.
That’s the battle that’s underway.
It explains the non-payments to the farmers and cement mills. You can take it to the bank that both enerprises are owned by ex-officers and officers. (duh)
If the Egyptians need more money to keep from starving let then sell their tanks and aircraft. I don’t want to give them a penny.
All sales of American aid military gear cannot be sold in any manner not sanctioned by America.
Your proposal is a non-starter.
Baloney. We can certainly give them permission to sell them to whomever we please, including to America and maybe Israel or whomever we want. And Morsi, being pharaoh and all, could just abrogate any agreements he wants. So don’t give me your non-starter malarkey.
Last accounting I saw the Mubarak fortune was estimated at between $25B/$40B, a portion likely originated from the US taxpayers. I suggest Morsi appropriate those funds. Why not, it doesn’t seem like any existing law is restraining his behavior.
Hey, don’t worry. The Obama administration is going to help the Egyptian economy by allowing them to build Chevy Volts. Since it worked so “well” here in the United States, it can’t fail but to turn their economy around. No? Hmmmm, you mean the Egyptians can’t make any money off of “Green energy jobs” either? Oh, but I know, all the Egyptians have to do is tax the rich more and that will solve all of their financial problems. Not even close? Who knows, Obama’s economic policies have been such a disaster here in the United States, at least he’s not trying to export them to other countries. I guess that’s the best thing that could ever happen to the Egyptians.
Let me be clear. Egyptians will have to adjust to the new norm. Make no mistake about it.
The analysis is certainly fine, but unfortunately the US is in retreat in the Middle East.(M.E.) There is little the US can do now, frankly said (and with great pain I’m saying it) the US has done huge political failures in the M.E., which has created a lot of damage in the Middle East and to the US proper. The US is still a parvenu in international politics. (And by the way has squandered the powerful military power)- Europe (thru Germany)is picking up what the US has left in the M.E. even though it is still half hidden and imperceptible. Egypt is important as a strategic location, because of the Suez Canal!
I hope that if another Suez Crisis like in 1956 arises, the US won’t side again with Egypt against Israel (and Britain and France)as the US did in 1956.
I wonder why Egypt, which has difficulty is feeding its people, need nearly 500 combat aircraft (all included) of which ca. 240 F-16, and a large navy, without counting the Abram thanks and the missiles… Egypt is in fact the 4th largest F-16 operator after the USA, Israel and Turkey! And I could continue for another 1000 pages…..
In the meantime the US has betrayed and cheated its only ally in the Middle East, Israel. And (we – at least the ones with eyes to observe), Israelis resent it at great pain….contrary from what we hear from our own “treacherous” politicians, that are “obliged” to run to Berlin (this week’s Netanyahu’s visit) for help. Indeed: “Whom the gods would destroy, they first make insane”…..
Not sure where this little fact comes in, but:
I read that Morsi was negotiating to buy a German nuclear sub. Where he would get the money I have no idea — but barter may work. I’m sure the Germans want something from Egypt, even if only access to its antiquity.
Germany does not make any nuclear subs.
It was not a nuclear sub but it was a very advanced attack sub. Egypt no more needs a submarine than it needs a moon rocket. But Morsi has his priorities. But the recently announced (Islamic) tax hikes on alcohol and cigarettes don’t seem to be going so well, so they might be short on cash. Obama seems willing to help them get loans though.
JH — Thanks for the info correction.
BTW: Germany has also sold ‘silent’ subs to Iran.
You mean Russian…
BTW, The US Government actually owns a 60% block of the equity of that famous German submarine builder.
(!)
It’s held by a front corporation, of course.
Back when the deal was made — it was made public that the German Government was selling that majority stake to the American Government. The sale was made to keep their NATO partner happy.
The rest of the firm is tightly held by German interests. Its shares just don’t trade. They’re all locked up.
So, it’s a American-German submarine exporting company.
[ The USN didn't want any submarine technology to exist that it couldn't deal with, of course. With this purchase, it has a ring-side seat on all future developments.
This is, of course, the same company that supplies the IDF with its subs.
It also means that America always has veto power over any German submarine sales -- at all times -- no matter what.]
Since America owns and controls the German submarine builder…
One must conclude that Morsi would be buying the sub with the American military aid funds that 0bomber kicks loose every year.
He certainly doesn’t need another tank brigade.
Dear oh dear, is this guy a rabble rouser? Just do the first two bullet points and run don’t walk from no. 3. Hey, simplify your life, already.
Actually, the difference between Egypt and a banana republic is… 80m people and a cultural tradition going back to before Alexander. Enough of striking a pose. Better to recall the ancient Chinese definition of crisis. Look it up if you don’t know.
This is not about responsibility or mea culpa — the Arab Effing Street includes more than its share of the most unlovely savages on the planet — but rather about opportunities for intelligent white men (and those not tainted by tint) to make money. There’s plenty of sound contrarian analysis, too, available to self-styled experts and others, though not on this site, to lead the way forward..
To avoid the censors and the phony accusation of advertising, let’s just say that for the benefit of those who insist on an edge in the face of an uncertain future: think of a mutual-fund family beginning with T, followed by ‘row’ and ending with ‘rhymes with vice’ — and you’ll likely end up in a good place involving Africa and the Middle East.
And time it right. Though don’t bet the farm, as always.
The Egyptian cultural tradition pre-Islam has been obliterated. This Egypt is a product of Islam, British colonialism, Nasser and the Free Officers, a relatively recent population explosion and the bizarre theories of the Muslim Brotherhood. It is no more related to Pharonic Egypt than the US. And If anyone can make money from the mess that is Egypt, whether this or that mutual fund, hats off to them.
”This Egypt” is just as ephemeral as everywhere else in the ‘wrong’ hands, including the US, the EU and, I’m guessing most important from your POV, Israel. Few things ever get obliterated (the Albigensians, maybe?), and Egypt isn’t an exception. You seem to be standing on vague-principle-dressed-up-as-sneer — wobbly ground indeed. How do you separate it all from self-interest?
The US would be well served to ‘go Gault’ on Egypt and let the chips fall. Rarely is that a good idea but right now the real-world choices — with Obama in the WH and the current State Dept — are worse.
I don’t know what you are talking about. I don’t know what the “wrong hands” has anything to do with what I said or even means in your paragraph. I was making a point that ancient Egypt has no relevance for understanding today’s Egypt. Pharaoh in the Koran is an evil figure – and that is how the Pharaohs are seen by Egypt today, purely through Islamic eyes. The discovery of ancient Egypt was a European, not an Egyptian project. The interest in ancient Egypt is Western, not Egyptian. Ancient Egypt has no more to do with modern Egypt than it does to modern America. There is no continuity.
Hey, ‘this Egypt’ is your phrase not mine, and you’re the one hung up on the Pharoahs, no one else is. I didn’t say ‘Alexander’ by accident but to stay away from Thutmose III and Norman Mailer.
Egypt’s modern age began mid-19thC with the opening of the Suez Canal and it’s been a strategic state ever since — the modern continuity is unbroken.
One notices your ‘once over lightly’ of modern Egypt didn’t mention Sadat either, so it’s no surprise you have trouble with comprehension. You also seem to believe the banana republic argument. Oh dear.
Look at the new night pic of the entire planet that has showed up of late all over the web. Egypt’s population distribution is quite interesting. Not only is Egypt ripe for mirroring N Korea … Biafra and Ethiopia come to mind.
Stand by everyone. The gangrene we see in our outer extremities now will progress quickly to our heart. Our world is due for a cleansing.
If anyone doubts your words they need only look at California.
Yes – the lights in California are winking out one by one too. And that same dark plague will creep across America – thanks in large part to the actions of our very own EPA.
If Egypt craters, it won’t be the Egyptians’ fault. It’s never their fault, because it can never be the fault of the Faithful. Its downfall will be caused by the Jews, and the Great Satan, which, as we all know, is under Jewish control.
/sarc off
The US military/industrial complex needs to sell weapons somewhere. If Egypt wants them, they will get them. I prefer to pee away our money this way than seeing another useless war where we lose our boys and our money.
It takes wealth to wage war. Terror is another matter, of course.
Why can’t we pay the Egyptian military to take control? They may lack the power to invade a neighbor but they can surely suppress the Muslim Brotherhood. Back them with food shipments and order could be restored promptly once the shooting stops. The Egyptian people could then thank us!!! (Ha, Ha.)
I grant a deep dislike for al-Baradei but I’ve always saw him as an Iranian agent and not a political leader of any sort.
I liked your last three suggestions or principles for future performance. How about extending them to the current American political scene? For example, recognize that the Obama administration is beyond fixing. Republicans shouldn’t raise the debt limit at future taxpayers expense: let the Treasury make do with that 11 trillion in custodial gold bullion to pay the bills or pay down the debt. I’m sure they can move on to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (that already been drilled oil) to help pay down the debt or current spending too. And recognize that both parties are beyond fixing as they mindlessly travel in tandem toward that secular totalitarian nanny state with the happy face.
It is impossible to get a sense of the day to day life over there except for missives like these and Goldman I believe has his finger on the pulse of irrationality. If so, given that the whole region is in chaos, day to day survival, or economic survival trumps all – what with an ancient and terminally diseased religious fanaticism playing out against an irresistible force of cultural change, it really comes down to the money to buy a chicken. If so, then Islam is finished, prayer doesn’t buy chicken. These events are merely its death throes, with an economic dictator looking for whatever cover story he can to sort it out, in Morsi’s case, Sharia law. I think the Egyptian Joe and Mary Six Pack will bring Islam to its knees. The US in the process will gain no friends as it tries to pick winners in a no-win game. Goldman’s recommendations strike me as spot on.
Egypt knows one key thing that the US taxpayer does not—Obama and crew will be bailing out the Brotherhood with billions in new money. The only detail left to work out is the excuse and the timing. One of the trading parlors should start an ‘over-under’ on the date. When the NYTimes starts writing favorable articles about how the Brotherhood has changed, figure we are getting close.
“anything–including prolonged chaos–is better than the consolidation of a totalitarian state under the Muslim Brotherhood.”
No, there is a worse possibility: the consolidation of a totalitarian state under Al-Nour and the Salafists. They make the Muslim Brotherhood seem like liberals.
I wonder if the coptic exodus will mirror the maronite and orthodox (Palestinian) ones? They fled to France,Canada and south America.they fled knowing that they were chased out by the Muslims yet still espouse hatred for the Jews. Prime example is the efforts og the Arab Christian success ingesting the costa rican government torelocate it’s embassy from jerusalem to tel aviv.
There are too many Copts – maybe up to ten million. They cannot all flee, Europe would not welcome them. They have no money for the most part anyway, they are stuck. I do not believe there will be starvation in Egypt despite the lack of bananas. They both import and export food – they will stop the exports and if there is no wheat bread, they will eat beans. There are enough calories. And The US and EU will supply the food if there is a complete break down. We will feed those that would kill us, as we do in Somalia and yes, even for 80 million.No one has starved in Syria yet. In any event, the most logical place for the Copts, if they must flee, is Northern Sudan or Ethiopia. Ethiopia could use them strategically as a bulwark against Islam. Of course, they will not but interesting to think about.
Historical footnote: During the heyday of the Roman Empire, under the Mamelukes, Egypt was the breadbasket of Rome. The emperors were always concerned with shipments from Alexandria to Ostia because they needed timely delivery of wheat to bake the bread to hand out to the citizens (“bread and circuses”). Now the country is on the verge of starvation. Solution: Bring back the Mamelukes.
The Mamelukes were long after the Roman Empire. The Mamelukes were a warrior caste in Egypt from the midieval to the early modern period.
Your chronology is off by about one thousand years and you ignore the size of the population between now and then…
Quite right. The answer is to bring back the Ptolemies.
I hope they aren’t skimping on the maintenace of the Aswan Dam. It would be a terrible tragedy if it were to collapse and sweep away 30 million mobots.
I could care less about koranimals in egypt or any other country. The only thing I care about is keeping them out of MY country and stop giving them money. But since we have a koranimal in the WH and the entire government is filled with commies and traitors, I guess this means we’re fluked.
Spengler’s analysis is spot-on in my opinion.
Egypt can never be another North Korea.
The DPRK was established when the country was under total Soviet occupation (1945-1946), and reestablished when it was under de facto Chinese occupation (1951). That is, there was a powerful foreign army in complete control.
The DPRK was built into a rigid totalitarian state in the 1950s and 1960s.
At that time, there was very little interaction between Korea and the rest of the world, and hadn’t been much for quite a long time. There were deep barriers of language, distance, and alphabet. For about 300 years, Korea was a “hermit kingdom”, and then a Japanese satellite.
Then under the DPRK, near-complete isolation from the rest of the world again.
Egypt has a very different history. It is part of the Arab language sphere, and its population has interacted continuously with other Arabs for centuries. It is in someways the crossroads of the Middle East, with Al-Azhar University and the Suez Canal. Mubarak’s clique monopolized power corruptly, but they didn’t censor all discourse or contact with the rest of the world.
Egyptians have at least some idea of democracy. Mubarak faked it, but everyone knew that. When Mubarak fell, they had real elections. Maybe not entirely fair or honest, but it’s clear that the results were fairly reflective of the people’s will – and that Egyptians expected that, not a fraudulent ritual.
I don’t think it’s possible, with a people having that sort of history, to reduce them to the pathetic roboticism of North Korea – without massive external force.
I don’t contend that Egypt is not going to be a very bad place for a while, just not like North Korea.
Their co-adjacent neighbor speaks the same language — and they have to block broadcasts from Seoul by controlling their domestic receivers.
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So….?????
Do you believe those reports of Brotherhood guys out there intimidating and assaulting protesters in the streets ? Raping women ?
Do you believe this ?
Seems entirely possible, given who “the Brotherhood” is.
Al-Masry Al-Youm Reports On Brotherhood Torture Chambers
Try again.
Al-Masry Al-Youm Reports On Brotherhood Torture Chambers
…..all so very ecumenical and Brotherly. “Simian” is perhaps a better word.
This unwashed infidel typing here wonders what the peaceful, sharing Muslims resident in our prosperous America, and obviously benefiting thereby, are wondering privately?
Do they tithe? [sarc. alert]
Well, now…..tsk …. tsk …. tsk…..
Isn’t it too bad that these oh-so-pius Muslims all over the place inside their wonderful theological Muslim-itude are so riven by their oh-so-bloody factions that they can’t share “…from each according to his abilities to each according to their needs.”
Let ‘em eat sand. No more USAID!
Dearest DPG, a confession: I’m undergoing a massive crisis of faith in you and the other conservative commentators I used to worship. Where’s the Somalia-style famine for Egypt you promised us last year? Now it turned into just a 10% drop in Egypt’s food exports? And what with Dick Morris and Karl Rove reassuring us that all was going to be fine and Banana would be flushed out to remain a fluke in American history? Even your hopeful prognostication of America (and Israel) having the brightest future in the west by virtue of their higher fertility sounds somewhat lame now that America’s fertility took a sudden drop and sadly Israel could be nuked out or chemed-out any moment now by the proliferation of new and ever more toxic types of Moslemmings. So the question is, if loss of faith brings a drop in fertility, as we learnt from you; now that I’m losing my faith in you will my fertility drop? Should I be keeping an eye on my sperm count? Or can you offer treatment by addressing your most hopeful prophesies and why they didn’t materialize? Chief among them the famine plague on Egypt. Civil strife is not enough, nothing less than famine will fix their attitude problem.
I have never believed there would be starvation in Egypt due to the economy and have posted so here for a while. The fellah simply does not need that much, a little bread and beans and tea and some hashish now and then are simply not that expensive and the Egyptian government can subsidize all of them forever. The UN and the EU and the US are there for any contingencies. But although the appetite of the fellah is small, the appetite of the Muslim Brotherhood is large. They truly believe that once they increase the amount of Islam in society, everything is going to fall into place, naturally. That is the extent of their so called deep thinking. But Islam has nothing relevant to say about interest rates because it does not allow interest. It has nothing relevant to say about taxation because its mandated tax system arises out of late antiquity, it has nothing to say about industrial policy or corporate law because it does not recognize the corporation. The positions on women, minorities are well known and regressive. So, of course, nothing is going to fall into place and what happens after that, who knows? There was famine in the Ukraine but completely caused by the Soviets – not due to a lack of food. If there is a famine in Egypt, it will be man made.
“An epidemic of bird flu threatens to destroy Egypt’s chicken population because of a lack of natural gas to heat poultry farms.”
Odd statement above, considering the Arabic reference doesn’t explain anything.
Mr. Goldman: How much heat does a poultry farm need — if a poultry farm really needs heat? I’ve read that some poultry farms in the US heat the farmer’s house by pumping in hot air from the chicken house. So it would seem that a huge concentration of chickens produces heat and is not in any need of heating — especially since Egypt is not particularly cold.
Also, since Egypt is no longer selling natural gas to Israel and Jordan because of multiple pipeline explosions, it can use this unused gas supply if it really is needed.
That said, I’m sure bird flu can pop up anywhere and be very deadly.
City slickers are unaware of a chicken’s weird ticks.
One must take care to get them roosted right — every night — because…
They’ll all huddle up for warmth in such a mash that those below and in the corner die for lack of air.
This tick pretty much has to be seen to be believed. It passes as common knowledge in farm country.
So, if the outside air drops even into a chill — loses can reach 30% on the very first night — when disease breaks out — look to lose every last bird.
Prospective economic ruin has energized Egypt’s political crisis…
And it couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of guys. Btw, how’s the investigation on the gang rape of ABC News reporter Lara Logan? That’s another problem they have to deal with. At least nobody is asking them about their tradition of clitoridectomy here, including the silent feminists here, whom we’ve let keep theirs.
Wow. How do you run an economy with Arabs and no oil? Who will pay for the Filipino workers?
Help for Egypt only if they leave Islam!
There is one bright spot remaining for their economy — they always have tourism.
Like it or not Egypt, along with Israel and Jordan, is part of Pax Americana in the ME. No US administration would dump Egypt without a strong provocation. FWIW, Morsi and his “brothers” have avoided that kind of provocation. Egypt has not abrogated its peace treaty. It has not aide Iran in any adventures against us or our allies. In fact Egypt has been anti-Israel in many intl forums for a long time, without consequences, so nothing new there.
It’s really up to the Egyptians. As long as they don’t burn their bridges they will remain a client or ally of the US and will continue to get funds and other support. That’s not to say that if they need billions to feed themselves that the US will automatically send it. There’s a strong mistrust of Egypt in congress and any new significant funds sent will likely have strings attached. But really that’s always been true.
I think they came close to bridge burning with the embassy attacks and pulled back when they understood they had gone too far. But that shows you how much they take the aid for granted – they were willing to allow attacks on our embassy while requesting additional funding from the US and help with IMF loans. I still maintain that Morsi does not know what he is doing, has no plan to accomplish anything (beyond more Islam) and will make mistake after mistake. I think that is obvious now. Our indulgence of him is really amazing though.
I don’t know about David predicting imminent mass starvation in Egypt, he merely said it was an alarming possibility. And it I always felt, aside from minor quibbles about Tadjiks and Kyrgiz not exactly being Turkomen or Uzbeks but all somehow being ‘Turkic’ or ‘Turks’, that the ‘America has little to worry about because we’re more fertile’ school was a bit too smug. After all much of that fertility came from Mexican women who have more babies in the U.S. than do their thinner sisters back in Mexico. But now even that birth rate has started to drop as TV and obesity (especially in women, guys with taller frames just manage a few extra pounds more easily than cruel nature has bestowed on Mexican and most Asian women) take their toll on the Meso-Americans along with the European and Black Americans.
Not to get all Whiskey on everyone, and I know David has many Mexican businessmen/banker friends, who all complain that Uncle Sam talks down to their country. No doubt the D.C. drug warriors and New York/London banksters who launder the cartels money all have blood on their hands. But at a certain point if even the food stamps for 40-50% of the population cannot be maintained in the face of totally bankrupt Medicaid to treat massive cases of diabetes brought about by sugary, preservative/salty and GMO laced foods, then expect birth rates to drop to native born Greek or Spaniard levels and Russians to appear as godesses of fertility in comparison. At least Russia has a surplus of natural resources to export to Asia barring total global economic collapse. Putin’s genius has been to tax those resources more than his hapless and Western celebrated predecessor, in effect turning oil for babies at a time when the Western elites are obsessed with population control (particularly among non-Hispanic minority populations and South Asians). For that Putin can never be forgiven. All manner of corruption (as with the widely embraced Saudis and Qataris) and religious fanaticism so long as it is Islamist and not Russian Orthodox is tolerable. But not paying Russians to reproduce.
Egypt may not become “North Korea on the Nile”. But it may very well become “Yemen with control of the Suez Canal”. Is that really better?
we should have suspended military aid immediately after the embassy seige which like Libya had nothing to do with the video