North Korea on the Nile
The New York Times is shocked–shocked–to discover that Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood president wants to bring Iran into a quartet of Muslim countries to manage the Syria crisis. In fact, Asia Times’ M.K. Bhadrakumar, a former senior Indian diplomat, reported this story more than a week ago. There is a bigger, and more frightening picture, including Egypt’s deployment of tanks into the Sinai in violation of its 1979 peace treaty with Israel, and the collapse of Egypt’s economy. “Worse is better,” the Bolsheviks said in 1917: the more hunger and the more chaos, the better the chances for a Bolshevik coup. The Muslim Brotherhood’s intention, it appears, is to turn Egypt into North Korea on the Nile: a starvation in state in which one’s chances of eating depend on loyalty to the ruling party.
Below are extracts from my weekly essay in Asia Times Online. America faces a foreign policy meltdown, the worst since the fall of Vietnam, with the collusion of the Republican establishment as well as the Obama administration. The one thing that might pull America’s chestnuts out of the fire is a successful Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear weapons program. (Note: Footnotes with hyperlinks to sources can be found in the original on the Asia Times site).
* * * * *
North Korea on the Nile
by Spengler
Reports that Egypt’s oil suppliers are cutting shipments to the nearly-bankrupt nation coincide with a dramatic diplomatic shift towards Iran by President Mohammed Morsi. Morsi’s attendance at the Non-Aligned Summit in Teheran today denotes the end of Iran’s diplomatic isolation in the Sunni Arab world.
In addition, as my Asia Times Online colleague M K Bhadrakumar noted in his Indian Punchline blog, Morsi proposed to include Iran in a four-nation contact group to resolve the Syrian crisis, along with Turkey, and Saudi Arabia. Morsi’s outreach to Iran at the August 15 Organization of Islamic Coordination summit in Mecca was welcomed by Iran’s Foreign Ministry. [1] [2]
At the same time, Egypt has become a prospective threat to Israel for the first time in more than three decades. The deployment of Egyptian tanks in the Sinai, supposedly in pursuit of terrorists, violates the 33-year-old peace treaty with Israel, and persuades some Israeli analysts that Egypt might threaten Israel’s southern border in the event of an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
“If Netanyahu finally decides to strike Iran’s nuclear sites, shouldn’t he consider a possible scenario, in which Morsi (soon to visit Tehran for a conference), orders two army divisions to cross the Suez Canal into Sinai?,” asks Amos Harel, the senior defense analyst at Ha’aretz. [3]
American analysts had assumed that Egypt’s massive need for external aid would keep Morsi’s Muslim Brotherhood on Washington’s leash. On the contrary, the Brotherhood indicated its intent to benefit from economic chaos months ago, as I wrote in this space last April (see Muslim Brotherhood chooses chaos, Asia Times Online, April 11, 2012). Now the gravity of the situation is beginning to sink in.
“Just two months after coming to power, Morsi is pursuing a rapprochement with Tehran and articulating a newfound ambition to jettison billions in US foreign assistance dollars and financing from Western financial institutions,” wrote David Shenker and Christina Lin in the April 24 Los Angeles Times. [4]
Economic privation, up to and including starvation, is not necessarily a hindrance to the exercise of power. As the Bolsheviks demonstrated in 1917, the Somali warlords during the 1990s, and North Korea for the past two decades, starvation benefits a totalitarian party ruthless enough to employ it as a weapon of social control. Reports from Egypt indicate that Morsi has begun rationing of daily essentials, reinforcing the Muslim Brotherhood’s grip on power.
The Egypt Independent reports, “The government decided to lower subsidies on oil products from LE95.5 billion [US$$15.5 billion] in the 2011-2012 budget to LE25.5 billion in the 2012-2013 budget by applying a coupon system on butane, gas and diesel in addition to other procedures for rationalizing energy consumption.”
And according to Magda Kankil of the Egyptian Center for Economic Studies, Egypt will move to a ration card system for bread as well. [5] If Egyptians want to eat, or cook dinner with propane, they can apply for a ration card to the local Muslim Brotherhood office.
Egypt spends roughly US$25 billion a year on fuel, and the present subsidy of 95.5 Egyptian pounds is a life-and-death matter for the Egyptian poor. According to the Wall Street Journal on March 22, “Subsidies already absorb at least 28% of Egypt’s budget outlay of 476 billion Egyptian pounds ($79 billion). [6] About two-thirds of that goes toward fuel and energy, with the rest aimed at reducing food prices, particularly for wheat.”
A massive reduction in subsidies combined with rationing will put the existence of half of Egypt’s people under the immediate control of the state. Morsi’s apparent disregard of Egypt’s economic crisis conceals a deeper agenda, namely the entrenchment of the Muslim Brotherhood in the kind of power arrangement that characterizes modern totalitarian states. That is the source of his contempt for American diplomacy.
It is hard to recall an American foreign policy failure so catastrophic, and at the same time so bi-partisan. As M K Bhadrakumar – the only English-language journalist to predict Egypt’s turn – put it in the August 21 Asia Times, the US offered “an invitation to Obama to Morsi to visit Washington. And Morsi is instead traveling to China and Iran.” (See Egypt thumbs nose at US, Asia Times Online, August 21, 2012).
….
Morsi has undertaken what Schenker and Lin call “a foreign policy shift rivaling the scope of president Anwar Sadat’s expulsion of the Soviets in 1972 and subsequent reorientation to the West” when his country is almost out of cash. Liquid foreign exchange reserves at the Bank of Egypt fell to $5.9 billion in July, enough to cover barely a month of imports.
“Egypt is finding it increasingly difficult to import fuel as foreign banks and traders pull the plug on credit,” Reuters reported August 23. “In the strongest evidence to date of rising fuel import difficulties, traders said Egypt had to cancel a tender to buy crude earlier this month after receiving no bids, and also had to scrap parts of a gasoline import tender because the prices on offer were too high.” [9]
The country’s economy faces paralysis due to an endemic shortage of gasoline and diesel fuel, leading to regular electricity blackouts. Lack of fuel has forced the shutdown of bakeries, leading to regional shortages of the subsidized bread that makes up most of the caloric consumption of half of Egypt’s population living on less than $2 a day. [10]
Egypt received a cash deposit of $500 million from Qatar and a pledge of an additional $1.5 billion after the August 10 visit of Emir Al-Thani to Cairo. The same day, President Morsi purged Egypt’s senior officers and grabbed key constitutional powers from the military. Qatar’s contribution, though, is a stopgap; the tiny emirate has just $20 billion in total resources, less than Egypt’s annual requirement for external financing.
Morsi’s government is negotiating a $4.8 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund, enough to get through a few months – if and when the money arrives.
….
It has been, or should have been obvious all year that a dual power situation (as the Bolsheviks described it in 1917) has been gestating. The remains of the military-led government controlled the official levers of state, while the Muslim Brotherhood distributed food and fuel on the street. As I wrote on April 11 on this site:
The Brotherhood believes that widespread hunger will strengthen its political position, and is probably correct to believe this. As the central government’s corrupt and rickety system of subsidies collapses, local Islamist organizations will take control of food distribution and establish a virtual dictatorship on the streets. American analysts mistook the protestors of Tahrir Square for revolutionaries. The Muslim Brotherhood now reveals itself to be a revolutionary organization on the Leninist or Nazi model.
The Brotherhood’s revolutionary program has been gestating for some time. As food and fuel shortages emerged in the first months of after the downfall of President Hosni Mubarak last year, Islamist organizations already began to fill the vacuum left by the breakdown of the old civil regime. The Ministry of Solidarity and Social Justice began forming “revolutionary committees” to mete out street justice to bakeries, propane dealers and street vendors who “charge more than the price prescribed by law”, the Federation of Egyptian Radio and Television reported on May 3, 2011. According to the ministry, “Thugs are in control of bread and butane prices” and “people’s committees” are required to stop them. (See Muslim Brotherhood chooses chaos, Asia Times Online, April 11, 2012).
…
Like the Shah’s generals in 1979 Iran, the Egyptian generals have something to fall back on – the townhouse in Chelsea or the yacht in Monaco. The younger officers who replaced them after Morsi’s August 10 purge have no hope of enriching themselves as their commanders once did, because there is nothing more to steal. In retrospect, the military’s failure to fight back against the Muslim Brotherhood could have been inferred from its behavior since the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak in January 2011. As foreign exchange reserves vanished last year, I asked last October:
Egypt’s economic route calls to mind the country’s military disaster during the 1967 war, when – according to the Egyptian government’s later evaluation – the military collapsed in part because of “the army’s fear of telling [President Gamal Abdul] Nasser the truth”.
It appears at first glance that the army does not want to tell itself the truth about Egypt’s economy. The truth probably is simpler, and more sinister … When the civil societies of developing countries disintegrate, the authorities often appear to be paralyzed. In most cases, the anonymous little men in charge of big functions are hard at work, making down payments on Paris apartments and private jets. Are the Generals Stealing Egypt?, Asia Times Online, October 18, 2011.)
…..
America is confronted by a new and unwelcome set of alliances in the Middle East. Its cluster of allies – Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Jordan and Israel – is reduced to only two. Saudi Arabia rails in vain at the “summit aligned towards Iran”, as Emad El Bin Adeeb derided the Non-Aligned movement event on August 23 in the Saudi newspaper Asharq Alawsat. [13]
Israel was wrong-footed by the Egyptian government’s challenge to the Camp David treaty, and is absorbed in a wrenching debate over the merits of a pre-emptive strike on Iran’s nuclear program. Turkey, whose Islamist government was promoted as a model of Islamic democracy by the Bush administration as well as by President Obama, is paralyzed by the chaos on its border, fearful that the Kurdish problem will spill over into its own territory. Jordan’s monarchy hopes to survive by making concession after concession to the Muslim Brotherhood.
Russia plays all sides, negotiating with Israel for the price of denying advanced anti-missile systems to Iran, while sustaining Iran’s allies in Syria’s beleaguered Assad regime. As the world’s largest oil producer, Russia stands to gain from the insecurity of Persian Gulf oil supplies. China watches on the sidelines wondering which of the pieces are worth acquiring.
If and when Iran acquires deliverable nuclear weapons, the Middle East will shift irreparably into a state that Americans barely can begin to fathom. Paradoxically, an Israeli strike on Iran – in open defiance of the Obama administration’s wishes – might offer the only hope of restoring America’s failing position.
A former Israeli diplomat, Yoram Ettinger, draws a parallel to Levi Eshkol’s decision to preempt a building Arab attack on Israel in the June 1967 war. Eshkol, he observed on August 17, “preempted the anti-US Arab axis; devastated a clear and present danger to vital Western interests; rescued the House of Saud from the wrath of Nasser; expedited the end of the pro-Soviet Nasser regime and the rise of the pro-US Sadat regime in Egypt; dealt a major setback to Soviet interests; and demonstrated Israel’s capability to snatch the hottest chestnuts out of the fire, without a single US boot on the ground.” [14]
With Iran neutralized, the Assad regime in Syria would become a friendless, purposeless hulk, and the Morsi regime in Egypt the proprietor of a failed and hungry state. Iraq, absent Iranian influence, would settle down into low-intensity violence without regional implications. Once again, the House of Saud would be rescued from the wrath of an overreaching Egyptian leader and US influence would predominate in the Gulf.
Egypt is a lost cause where Washington is concerned, but it could be a ruined cause for anyone else. As I wrote in May
Interdicting the Brotherhood, in turn, requires an uncharacteristic harshness on the part of American policy. War correspondent Peter Arnett might have concocted the notorious statement, “It became necessary to destroy the town to save it,” supposedly said by an American officer of the Vietnamese provincial capital Ben Tre in 1968. Something like that might be the outcome for Egypt. (See The Horror and the pita, Asia Times Online, May 1, 2012)
It may sound cold, but someone has to say it.
nneled by David P Goldman, president of Macrostrategy LLC. His book How Civilizations Die (and why Islam is Dying, Too) was published by Regnery Press in September 2011. A volume of his essays on culture, religion and economics, It’s Not the End of the World – It’s Just the End of You, also appeared last autumn, from Van Praag Press.
(Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
Everybody snubs their nose at the naked emperor.
The only nation obeying the collapsing Empire now days is servile Israel impatiently awaiting the green light from their Pharaoh Hussein obama.
All of this bodes extremely ill for Israel with all her of neighbors seeing a weak and fearful nation of infidels gutted of all deterrence by going along with the US appeasement and retreat,land for rockets and jihad policy.
The US bears full responsibility for this coming war for it’s years of restraining Israel and always rewarding their enemies,even training and supplying their armies.
The end result of this treachery will be catastrophic for America because we are the number 1 target for decapitation by this growing confederation.Once they get rid of the big Satan,then they’ll move on to little Israel is their plan.
Behold, I will make you small among the nations;You shall be greatly despised.
The pride of your heart has deceived you,You who dwell in the clefts of the rock,
Whose habitation is high;You who say in your heart, ‘Who will bring me down to the ground?’
Though you ascend as high as the eagle,And though you set your nest among the stars,
From there I will bring you down,” says the Lord.
Obadiah 1
Thanks for a great geopolitical essay, Spengler. The spirit of Cardinal Richilieu still lives on, apparently, although not in irrelevant Europe. Rather, in the exploding and imploding Middle East.
When you have time, let us know what you think of the impending creation of an Alawite State in Northwest Syria, to be followed by the secession of the Kurds from Northeast Syria. Does this spell the end of the Sykes-Picot vision of the Middle East that we have all been living with for the last 100 years?
Lebanese Druze warlord Walid Jumblatt recently came out and said as much. He also predicted that the region would be in for years of huge changes, meaning major border changes, demographic shifts, not to mention the usual massacres. No one in the West is really thinking about the long-term implications of this. Why don’t you try your hand at this?
As an Israeli and a student of history and politcial science, its been clear to me for the past year that the “Sykes-Picot vision” is over – not today and not tomorrow, but the Middle East (and perhaps the world) is in for a lot of
instability and turmoil and soome big changes. Walid Jumblatt has survived for years by knowing which way the wind blows and switching sides when he feels it necessary. He knows what he is talking about. It will be interesting to read Spengler’s take on these matters.
Thanks, Chava, for mentioning that absolutely seminal and unfortunately continuing artificiality of those ethnic-straddling borders created by the smug Sykes and Picot. I thought that I was the only one ever mentioning Sykes-Picot…….East Asia is another matter, but French/English Colonialism is always lurking in the background with continuing frictions.
Frankly, I think that the coy French quietly observing our wheel-spinning from their side-lines ought to be called out publicly. They created these borders. They have the “expertise”, n’est-pas? At least the Brits, in their greatly reduced material abilities, have contributed some their young men to our efforts.
Thanks for the spark to ask Mr Goldman here to write about the Shia/Sunni/Alawite/Kurd divisions (unless that’s already been filed somewhere…where?) which in turn were spurred by reading that Egypt is trying for an “alliance” of sorts including Saudi Arabia and Iran, which I understood to be nasty rivals within their Islamic paradise.
I’d think from my armchair here that we Americans (with whatever “allies” may want to contribute men and money…good luck with that, right? may be added in…)ought to encourage those literally bloody divisions, although I doubt that our State Department professionals have that needed sophistication.
But, surely, somewhere, quietly, we’ve got scholars (Daniel Pipes?) who’d be able to able to advise those familiar with Commando/Special Operations activities so that we’d pull off some quiet internal hot-strife within their fractious factions.
Then, at the same time to be able to work around the Obama naifs. We ought not to be observers from behind in our long war against Islam.
How about it, Mr Goldman?
Could the new map be redrawn to incorporate Druze areas into Israel? As a minority they know which nation protects minority rights. they have seen how Christians, sunnis and Shia treat them.
The only people who hate Israel are anti-Semites, such as yourself.
For all her rhetoric, Egypt, under the Muslim Brotherhood, has been fastidious about keeping the peace treaty with Israel. Hezbollah and Hamas have already made it clear that they will not fight on Iran’s behalf in any war between Iran and Israel – a war that everyone knows Israel will win, leaving her more powerful, and her enemies, weaker, and that very much includes France, Monsieur Marcel.
Every Arab state is a failed state, whose failures will only get worse over time. The only ones who will be saved are the Palestinians, when Jews become 80% of the population between the Mediterranean and the Jordan 20 years from now and add the remaining land that was taken from them – Judea and Samaria – to recreate the original state. Only when every Palestinian in Judea and Samaria become Israelis, will they be free, just like the Arab-Israelis, today.
Gene;
‘Hezbollah and Hamas have already made it clear that they will not fight on Iran’s behalf.’
I suppose that you are naive enough to take the word,any words from these pathological liars… just like you fell for the two state Road Map peace scam.
I’m as anti-semetic as you are sir.
Ellen;
‘He also predicted that the region would be in for years of huge changes, meaning major border changes, demographic shifts’
Do you really think there will be much if anything or anyone left around Syria,Lebanon,Egypt after this next war let alone borders?
Israel will pay a hefty price for chasing after lying idols for peace and ignoring God’s WARNING on the subject.
Exodus 23
“You shall make no covenant with them, nor with their gods. They shall not dwell in your land, lest they make you sin against Me. For if you serve their gods, it will surely be a snare to you.”
Ellen, thanks for the kind words and the reference to Jumblatt. There are a few people working on this, at some quiet thinktanks, but you’re right to point me in that direction.
I was writing about these issues back in 2002 here:
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Articles/Article.aspx/1360#.UEAAeMFlQyQ
David;
After viewing “2016″ this weekend, I do not believe that President Obama can emotionally or intellectually assist Israel to pull off a parallel to the 1967 war, simply because it WILL benefit the U.S.
This president stated during the last campaign that he was committed to higher taxes on the rich because of “fairness”, regardless of the lower revenues it will produce. He has remained committed to that ideology and it is a continuing mantra in this campaign.
He is ideologically rigid regardless of the outcome.
This applies to his Third World loyalties and anti-colonialist and anti-imperialist intellectual filter.
It is hard to imagine a more dangerous man to occupy the White House at this juncture of history.
One last thought/question: will the Copts be rescued, or will the world avert their eyes ?
I think Barry Rubin, or perhaps it was our host, referred to the ‘Jumblatt’ as a unit of time in the middle east, which correlated to the period required for Walid Jumblatt to switch allegiances based in shifting trends in the region.
We are in for many Jumblatts of turmoil. Interesting that the mid east may, at the end of this, may finally throw off the colonial maps and come to a more natural territorial adjustment that reflects ethnic / demographic / power realities, unlike Africa, which will remain stuck in theirs for the foreseeable future.
I wonder what Israeli strategists are thinking. Will they take advantage of the intersection a weak/unengaged America and a super-fluid middle east to redraw her borders?
I can’t really blame Jumblatt. We Jews, too, pre-reborn-Israel, lacking autonomy, had to be sensitive to the zeitgeist of whatever society we were living in to ensure the survival of our people. We reestablished Israel precisely so Jews not fortunate to be Americans, would never again be forced into that position. Unfortunately, those of Jumblatt’s people, the Druze, living in Lebanon, don’t have that freedom. Ideally, they could all move to Israel, where they would be safe, and free, but that’s not in the cards, either.
Personally, I would love to see a Druze enclave, if not a state, in part of present-day Lebanon, and something similar for the Christians, too.
Probably couldn’t hurt to separate the Shias and Sunnis, too.
Or, just have everyone ruled by secular Ottomans and be done with stupid sectarian wars.
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was born Mahmoud Saborjhian on October 28, 1956, the fourth son among seven children of a blacksmith in the town of Aradan, Iran, near the larger city of Garmsar. He married another university professor and had two sons and a daughter.
How many of Mahmoud’s siblings and children share his views toward Israel? It shouldn’t be that difficult to interview 9 people but if it is then we are missing a big piece of the puzzle.
If many of the commenters here are correct that all of Poland is anti-Semitic then maybe one of us could be convincing enough to help you infiltrate the Iranian regime. After all, if the entire country worked so hard to achieve that label then let’s figure out an incentive for one of us to best leverage it. Some of us can be very convincing and most of us can be bought. We can even pretend to be mending fences with Russia if that’s what it will take. I would argue that right now Poland is trying to play both sides more than KSA.
Comparing current Iran to pre-war Germany fails to take into account that the CIA put the Shah in power and not enough of Iranians are willing to forgive that just yet. Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright came close to apologizing but didn’t. Maybe an apology would erode Mahoud’s support, facilitated a transition and avoid the need for a bombing campaign. But if you must, then bombs away.
“… the CIA put the Shah in power and not enough of Iranians are willing to forgive that just yet”.
I rather doubt there is any reliable recent polling of Iranians to support that. I would bet that the number of Iranians who consider the events of the 1950s to be significant is close to the numbers for regular mosque attendance.
If by chance, an apology erodes Mahmoud’s support then Obama should apologize. Obama lied to the American public about his NDAA requirement for an exception to US citizen detentions/assassinations. There is little downside to him telling one more lie to the mosque attending Iranians.
David – Are the weekly Gate telephone conferences on hiatus? It was nice to see you in three venues.
Gatestone had a shortage of funds and terminated the project.
Too bad. I’ll bet it brought them a lot of traffic. Pepe Escobar was a good choice to bring a different and interesting POV.
Esocbar is a nihilist who panders to his audience of drooling anti-semites. I doubt there is a neo-Nazi on this planet who isnt a fan of his. He is a morally bankrupt scum bag who peddles hatred for laughs and money. Please tell me he never reproduced!
BTW, is Asia times going belly up too?
Morsi is as big a fool as Obama if he thinks cozying up to Iran and Hamas is going to get him anywhere. Petting a mountain lion does not turn it into a kitty cat. Meanwhile the Egyptian army has done nothing in Sinai except driving around in armored vehicles within populated areas. They have no intention of fighting the Islamists there.
Israel should continue efforts to kiss and make up with Turkey, if that is possible. Turkey has been dissed by Egypt who are now turning to Iran for support. Turkey also turned down an invite to the conference in Iran and are currently engaged in a proxy war with Iran over Syria. This might be a time when some quiet diplomacy could mend those fences.
US should cut all military aid and support to Egypt. No more parts and no more training until the situation is stabilized and Egypt returns to its agreed levels in Sinai. Let those F-16s stay parked until they rot.
Good post, but on one point I must disagree. Many world leaders are evil, but no leader, beneficent or evil, is as big a fool as Obama.
Well, maybe some of the fools who voted for him.
I see *no* evidence that Obama and Clinton are prepared to use the aid spigot or access to spare parts to compel Egypt to do anything. Reports indicate that the tanks and SAM batteries moved into Sinai are US-made. (Is anyone at Foggy Bottom asking the purpose of those SAMs when Sinai’s militants don’t have an air force?) I’d read that the aid was being doled out on a month-by-month basis, but since it’s still flowing, one has to conclude that the US is maintaining those payments so as to “maintain the relationship”.
Egypt paid no price for unilaterally ending the flow of gas to Israel. No price for cracking down on journalists. No price for demanding the release of the “Blind Sheikh”. No price for tolerating attacks on attacks on international monitors in Sinai. And so far no price for an apparent “truce” with militants in Sinai. Instead, Morsi has an invite to visit the White House and talks of an IMF loan to keep Egypt afloat for a little longer. So much for “smart power”.
It’s interesting that Arab leaders like Morsi have grown to like creating and exploiting economic chaos in their own countries. Who said Obama had no influence in the Arab world? Or did they teach him?
http://www.welt.de/newsticker/dpa_nt/infoline_nt/brennpunkte_nt/article108817051/Taliban-enthaupten-17-afghanische-Zivilisten.html
We don´t like such a future: taliban behead 17 civilians for dancing.
We have to defend freedom against such bestiality.
Of course, had these innocent civilians been “Palestinian” (and not even that innocent and hardly civilian), you’d have been informed of their ages, genders, professions, places of birth and other details. Other victims hardly ever deserve such scrutiny and interest from news agencies.
Some would call such “free press” attitudes discriminatory and even apartheid.
And just think !
If the US like the EU had not kept the cursed Palestinian entity afloat in the billions of wasted dollars over the decades they would have imploded on themselves and Israel would have been at peace already.
The incredible never ending waste of US largess,investments has brought us to the bottom.
I wonder if New Orleans will be the first to be flushed down the toilet ?
The Sykes-Picot “vision” of the Near- and Middle-East, not even a century old, has been invalidated during the past 7 decades at least. Tribal heritage is resilient, even under the umbrella of this or that sort of Islam.
Striking Iranian nuclear facilities will benefit to all residents of the region, and far beyond, on other continents. But should Israel do it, the benefit of increasing Israeli citizens’ life span will be coupled with the downside of the “gratitude” of many nations world-wide, further isolating and delegitimizing the Jewish state. As Amb. Y. Ettinger’s above-cited analysis doesn’t mention, the bilateral acts in terms of tradeoffs for the benefits earned out of Israel’s 1967 preemptive strike for her distant neighbors have yet to materialize.
Lots of people and leaders will be only too happy to see Israel doing the dirty job they’re afraid to do, and then join the choir singing “Aggressive Jews!”. Or as Friedrich Schiller put it, “The Moor has done his duty, the Moor can go”.
You are unfortunately right: many people in the west don´t understand that Israel is our natural ally and must be helped. They even don´t know it better. They are really uneducated.
It is certainly interesting the way 20,000 dead syrians merit less attention than a Palestinian terrorist’s home being razed, or the Cohen family’s desire to add a bedroom to their house in Pizgat Zeev.
Have you too noticed the riots all over the world in solidarity with those dead Syrians? Compared to the ones during “Cast Lead” in Gaza, or even al-Quds day, they’re impressive, aren’t they?
Pepe Escobar is a friend of mine. I’ve known him for years. He’s the Hunter S. Thompson of geopolitical journalism. Asia Times as far as I know is doing fine.
So basically you agree with me! Lets hope he gets cancer and kills himself just like Hunter S Thompson!
“With Iran neutralized, the Assad regime in Syria would become a friendless, purposeless hulk, and the Morsi regime in Egypt the proprietor of a failed and hungry state. Iraq, absent Iranian influence, would settle down into low-intensity violence without regional implications. Once again, the House of Saud would be rescued from the wrath of an overreaching Egyptian leader and US influence would predominate in the Gulf”.
It always seemed to me that a main source and main fuel of the Radical Islamist threat has been Khomenist Iran. Remove them and the pressure on KSA to support similar Sunni movements in order to protect their position is dramatically reduced. Folks like Sayyid Qutb and his intellectual descendants are then mostly reduced to impotent loudmouths.
You had me with this title.
Is Qatar going to get a 99 year lease on the Suez Canal?
Following Jumblatt must be exhausting.
Time to revisit the Ralph Peters map?
Maybe add in Coptic Sinai?
Still, hard to imagine the startvation tool lasting long – and why does not Egypt seize (or hire themselves out) Libya’s eastern oil fields/infrastructure? or is that too rational …
The US and the West could destroy the Iranian capability in a week with no chance of recovery for 20 years. The West has more than half a billion people, and is made up of the richest most technologically advanced countries in the world. Israel has 6 million Jews and a GDP per head still at the low end of the Western scale. Asking and depending on Israel to do this thing is already admitting that the West is demoralized and, yes, defeated. Defeated by a collection of dysfunctional states led by pycopaths and bullies. Very sad. If Israel must do this, the EU and the US are beyond hope. Their collapse is only a matter of time. Israel cannot save them or their fading position.
I dont know if the EU and US are beyond hope – but I agree that they are the ones to attack Iran, if it is necessary.
Israel is not capable of destroying the Iranian nuclear program, only of setting it back for a relatively short period of time. And this at the risk of uniting the Iranian people behind their rulers. The analogy with 1967 is a poor one indeed. The differences are too many to go into here.
By the way, if Israel attacks Iran, as Mr. Goldman advocates, will he come and
sit with us in solidarity in our sealed rooms as missiles rain down on us.
I dont know if Hamas will join in, But Hizbollah certainly will.
Dont get me wrong – I would gladly make sacrifices if I felt an existential threat to Israel could be eliminated or even significantly weakened. That isnt the case here
If the U.S. attacks Iran, Iran will launch missiles at Israel, anyway, even if Israel does nothing – and sorry, Israel, we are not going to let the potential effects of those missiles stop us from acting in our interest. So Israel might as well join us. And if Israel doesn’t act, the U.S. eventually will have to, so again, Israel should take a hand in controlling her own destiny and, if the threat to Israel is sufficiently dire, attack Israel, with or without the U.S.
As for delaying Iran’s nuclearization program, no estimate of how long that delay would be, has been two years. But why wait that long, give the Iranians rebuild and then bomb another nuclear weaponization facility? Take out Iran’s air defenses, damage the facilities enough to render them inoperable, and then enforce a “no-construction,” “no-bulldozer,” “no-even-one-guy-with-a-shovel” zone around any area where Iran tries to rebuild or build anew. If a single guy with a shovel, breaks so much as a teaspoon of ground to rebuild a site, or rebuild a site, kill him. If a bulldozer approaches within five miles, destroy it.
Were the US, rather than Israel, to lead the attack on Iran, it would actually lessen the likelihood of a larger regional war. Iran talks a good game, but they really aren’t prepared to face a full-on US assault. Hezbullah and Hamas won’t initiate a sympathetic assault on Israel as they would be facing Israel, in full defensive mode, without Iranian cover.
On the other hand, if Israel has to go it alone, they would have to put all they had into a slow slog of a long-distance assault while hunkering down for the inevitable retaliation. The economic cost would be enormous. Under such circumstances, Hezbullah, Hamas and possibly Egypt might take that as an opportunity to join battle against what they see as a vulnerable Israel. Even Syria’s missiles might come into play.
It’s amazing how those punch drunk on American hubris have been blinded by their wood alcohol brew.
Reminds me of whenKing Belshazzar of superpower empire Babylon was drinking the same home brew and the superpower was wiped out with lightening speed in one night.
You and the other drunks left out the fact that Russian,China,Venezuela and even the North Koreans have given clear warning against US intervention in Iran or Syria.They have a military pact with Iran that they will keep in the event of any attack by the worn out,worn down empire now being led by an idiot of the first order.
The western experts are so arrogant and asleep on this that I have no doubt we shall see another Belshazzar/Pearl Harbor X’s 100 very soon and then you shall awaken too late.
Raymond you also forgot about the well placed Muslim sleeper cells who made it into the US with ease while ClintonBushObama opened the borders wide for them and while Janet Napolitano and her DHS pervs were inspecting the genitalia of our children and grandmothers.
“You and the other drunks left out the fact that Russian,China,Venezuela and even the North Koreans have given clear warning against US intervention in Iran or Syria.They have a military pact with Iran that they will keep in the event of any attack by the worn out,worn down empire now being led by an idiot of the first order.”
So? Are you so afraid of the nations you list? Are any of them able to impact us? Not.
What’s the point of being a super power (even if your pres is decidedly attempting to lead the end of your power) if you don’t act Super?
Remember, the difference between arrogance (hubris) and confidence is competence.
ta
What a stupid comment. Seriously, China will do absolutely nothing. What are they go do? Back Iran and lose their most important export customer? Have the US repudiate their T bills? Right, they are going to bring upon themselves an epic depression. Yes the Chinese are going to risk it all including a revolution just to placate the Muslims. You really are foolish enough to believe this? Russia? Again, what are they going to do? Risk a war with the US which they can’t win for what? Iran. Not a chance. Venezuela? A complete joke.
“Asking and depending on Israel to do this thing is already admitting that the West is demoralized and, yes, defeated. Defeated by a collection of dysfunctional states led by pycopaths and bullies. Very sad. If Israel must do this, the EU and the US are beyond hope”.
Eloquent. I pray that some hope remains.
“Asking and depending on Israel to do this thing is already admitting that the West is demoralized and, yes, defeated. Defeated by a collection of dysfunctional states led by pycopaths and bullies. Very sad. If Israel must do this, the EU and the US are beyond hope”.
Eloquent. I pray that some hope remains.
“All that is gold does not glitter;
all that is long does not last;
All that is old does not wither;
not all that is over is past.
Not all that have fallen are vanquished;
a king may yet be without crown,
A blade that was broken be brandished;
and towers that were strong may fall down”.
- Tolkien, J. R. R., Christopher Tolkien, ed., The Treason of Isengard
Krakow @ #7 wrote: “If by chance, an apology erodes Mahmoud’s support then Obama should apologize”.
Well, President BHO may not be great at causing the U.S. to occupy a position of respect and influence in the world but he is a master at apologizing and bowing to our enemies.
The distinction between Reset and Number One Foe is minimal. They are broad strokes that serve a political purpose and mask underlying realities. America’s respect and influence over the previous half century stemmed from its delay in entering WWII. Between Stalin and Hitler, we decided that Stalin was the lesser of two evils. If Ahmadinejad is Hitler and Putin is Stalin then Romney’s position wastes time.
Obama is a homie who would prefer to smoke pot than be bothered with fulfilling messiah hopes of crazy voters.
“If Ahmadinejad is Hitler and Putin is Stalin then Romney’s position wastes time”
Wel, I’d say Putin also has some significant responsibility for wasting time in the P5+1. In fact, it often looks like Russia is helping Iran to run out the clock.
Also, we are hardly asking Putin’s Russia to repeat the performance of the USSR in WWII and suffer 8 million war dead to defeat Khamenei’s Iran.
“suffer 8 million war dead to defeat Khamenei’s Iran”.
Apologies, I hit “send” too soon. 8 million Red Army dead.
If I were Putin, America’s number one foe, then I certainly would not feel any urgency to do anything but to stay the course. The biggest risk to Israel is not an immediate retaliation from Iran. Instead, a delayed retaliation from Iran could be disproportional and Israeli nerves would be frayed from anticipation. Respectfully, I wouldn’t want to be in your shoes no matter if Israel attacks or not. And if you must, then bombs away.
The window of opportunity might be closed and there are no good options other than to trust the treacherous Russians. They are Christians and historically the Christians have been ruthless enough when pushed far enough. And sometimes Chistians are ruthless when not pushed far at all.
One should be cautious about offering generalizations regarding Sunni-Shia conflicts. There are impulses towards rapprochement as well as confrontation, as Shmuel Bar explains in this brief but substantial paper for the Hudson Institute:
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Digital-Library/Publications/Detail/?ots783=9c879a60-8a40-14e8-76c3-2c016ae9096c&lng=en&id=28546
Just last Aug. 2, Fouad Ajami predicted an Egyptian-Saudi Sunni alliance against Iran, and just the opposite occurred. Tactical alliances among enemies in this region are common; there are many little Hitler-Stalin pact equivalents. So I will not attempt an overview of all the variables. I am not qualified to produce it, and I do not know how helpful it would be.
Globally speaking, we’ve got now the combination of:
- Bad harvest, especially in the US the foremost world exporter of grain, hence anticipation of much increased prices for basic food worldwide
- General slowdown of economic growth, with incipient recession in major European countries and high risks for recession to start in other major countries as well (USA, China) Such global economic slowdown would be all the worse felt in poor countries which have little to begin with
- Tendencial middle-term food production issues resulting from:
?)
a) Soil deterioration
b) Biofuel production (will it some day be deemed a crime against humankind
c) Competition of agriculture with oil shale production for limited water resources
I’m afraid our host’s image of Egypt as “North Korea on the Nile” will prove to have been valid. What could have mitigated the crisis, that is to redirect the product of Egypt’s exports towards the most essential imports, food first, fuel second, will probably remain merely a dream with Egyptian government run alternatively by kleptocrats and fanatics.
I also strongly suspect that the North Korea template will be seen in other countries than Egypt within the coming years… Not all of them Muslim-majority.
Looks like the Morsi regime has surprised both Spengler and Ahmadinejad:
Prized Guests Slam Iranian Policies
Egypt’s President Mohammed Morsi, in a speech to the annual meeting of the Non-Aligned Movement, which brought leaders of more than 120 nations to Iran, caused a stir by calling Syria’s regime oppressive and devoid of legitimacy.
[...]
Iranian media, which had touted Mr. Morsi’s visit as a diplomatic coup that could signal a shift in improving Egypt-Iran relations, censored his speech. The simultaneous interpreter at the conference first stumbled then refrained from translating Mr. Morsi’s comments on Syria.
[...]
Mr. Morsi also praised the four caliphs of Sunni Islam at the start of his speech, an unusual evocation by an Arab leader. Iranians interpreted the comments as a jab at the Islamic Republic, a Shiite theocracy that doesn’t recognize the first three caliphs as legitimate.
Interesting development to say the least. Could Cairo support the pre-emptive bombing of Iran’s nukeworks?
Enlarge Image
Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad greets President Mohammed Morsi of Egypt in Tehran Thursday. The comment was a direct rebuke to Iran, which is aiding the Syrian leadership in its military crackdown against rebels.
A few well placed strikes against Iran’s refineries, oil export terminals and electric power grids will bring the regime and its nuclear program to a complete halt. As for Egypt all the state dept. has to do is remind them that Iran has no food surpluses to export to Egypt. See Morsi squirm when mass hunger strikes Egypt and their conscripts turn their guns on him and the brotherhood.