Forget about Economic Recovery: Obama Is Toast
President Obama thinks that the improving economy will win him a second term, the New York Times reports today. Whatever he’s drinking, order me a double. His poll numbers look a little better because the Republicans have spent the past several months in a fratricidal bloodbath. Fortunately, the memory of the American electorate for such antics is short. Once we choose a candidate (and I am happy with Romney, Santorum, or Gingrich) and unite behind him, we will win, unless, of course, we find a way to sabotage ourselves.
People are hurting, and badly. The official unemployment rate may have fallen, slightly, but the real unemployment rate — the number of working-age Americans who aren’t working — rose from about 12% before the 2008 crisis, to about 23%, and hasn’t come down. That includes people who have retired early because they can’t find work, spouses who used to earn a second income but have gone back to homemaking because work isn’t available, self-employed people whose businesses have collapsed, young people who live in their parents’ basement because they can’t afford tuition and can’t find work. The chart below, courtesy of the Shadow Government Statistics website, shows (in the blue line labelled “SGS alternative”) the way unemployment feels to Americans: one in four Americans who could be working, isn’t. That’s roughly twice the pre-recession level.
Another way to gauge the pain factor is the so-called Civilian Employment-Population Ratio. Prior to the recession, nearly 65 percent of working-age Americans (not in the military or in prison) had jobs. Now it’s down to 58%. The difference is 16 million people who should be working, but aren’t — about the same as the entire working-age population of Australia. The slight increase in employment during the past few months barely tracks the natural increase in population.
Unfortunately, we can’t count out the Stupid Party doing something stupid.
It isn’t about the “stupid” party anymore. It is about the average blue collar American and their choices along with the power of the internet to bypass the gatekeepers formerly known as “the Party”.
Dream on. The same people who surprised us 4 years ago by failing to see through this guy will be at the polls again. They will be mad those darn republicans didn’t pass Obama’s jobs and free lap dances bill.
I agree. When Obama can still have a 45% approval rating after Obamacare AND the Keystone pipeline, Republicans who think his ouster is guaranteed are fools.
Democrats have successfully dumbed down the electoral by increasing the number of people who will vote Democrat no matter what. These are i) Blacks 2) lower-income Hispanics, and 3) Single women over 30.
By importing millions of Hispanics and brainwashing millions of women to become feminist parasites rather than wives and mothers, the Democrats have ensured the total victory of leftism.
Ah well, countries come and go.
Tea Party for Obama tells a different story. $550.00 in perscription savings already tells a different story. Nebraska holding up the pipeline until it can be moved away from their main aquifer tells a different story. Obama is a sure thing next election because people are starting to check things out for them selves. That is the story you need to wrap your mind around. This whole primary is a cash gift to the media. It ends there.
Toads – bang on regarding the constituency that votes for the Dims regardless of policy or anything else. Can only hope they stay away at the polls. Or maybe the thing in Georgia stays alive and something comes of it.
HEADS UP EVERYONE,They’re will be a guy named barrack obama running for president of the United States. Be very careful to check out his proof of citizenship,as it has been rumored that he is not a U.S. citizen. Someone failed to do that 4 years ago(who was responsible to verify his citizenship?, and we all know the pain that it has caused our country!!! There really isn’t anymore to say about his re-election-is there???
Don’t get discouraged. I don’t believe 45% of those polled approve of Obama. I think many of them lie – they either don’t want to appear racist – even to a stranger polling them and/or they are embarrassed that they voted for him the first time and won’t admit they now do not approve. I think many people who are polled and say they approve will vote against Obama once they are in the privacy of the voting booth. The ones I really worry about – and we all should be – are the fraudulent voters. I believe Obama will win ONLY through fraud – and that’s a real possiblity.
But they haven’t gotten any of those promised lap dances. Or had their house bills and gas bills paid. Instead, a lot of ‘em lost their houses and gas prices soared (and are projected to soar again this summer).
Obama is just no fun anymore. Even the ones still sticking by him (at least in public) aren’t thrilled and happy to say they’re voting for Obama again. No Obama Girl video on YouTube this time around. No kids coached to sing “Obama… mmmm, mmmm, mmmm!” Instead they’re hostile and angry – like they’re upset that their vote which made them feel cool and smart last time around will now prove them to be stupid.
Gas prices are projected to rise largely because of the Iranian situation. If that is defused and Iran has to cut prices to sell outside the embargo then prices could decline fairly sharply.
That would be a major plus for Obama.
College students – except for the ones with graduate degrees in nonsense – will be smart enough to realize that Obamao is NOT The One we’ve been waiting before. Union workers – if not the leadership – is starting to realize that their tactics are unsustainable. The one who don’t realize that, will soon find themselves on the street. The African-American community is a different story. For centuries now, grifters have taken advantage of their own community, only remembering it, when they need the cover of “solidarity” – and unfortunately often getting it – after they’ve been caught. Obozo will make the usual appeals, and despite the disaster he’s been to African-Americans, will probably get it.
I think Mr. Goldman is about 10,000 times to smart to be able to understand that the economy isn’t going to be a big deal by September.
5% of voters would ever look at the charts he shows and 5% of the 5% would be able or interested to understand them.
What is going to happen is that the government controlled statistics are going to look good by September. I can’t say exactly how that will happen, but the government produces them, and obama controls the governement, so the stats are going to look good. If necessary, they will create new stats. They already have, so why do it again? The new “poverty” statistic is an example. It won’t be the last.
But in addition to rigging the stats, pravda will make sure that the most possible points of comparison will be used. For unemployment, that will be the deep trough shortly after obama was annointed in February 2009. Pravda will inform the public that obama’s policies have decreased unemployment by x% from that point which was the zenith of Bush’s disaster. For GDP, they will trot out some similar distortion, and etc for inflation, etc., etc., etc.
But in addition to manipulating the numbers on paper, they will be manipulating the factors that drive the stats. If they decide that bumping gdp up will be beneficial, they will throw a few hundred billion gubamint dollars into the economy. If they decide they need a bit better employment data, they well hire more government workers. Bush was too honest to do it. They certainly will not be.
So McRomney’s hope that calling himself mr fixit and obama mr thumbs is a hope in vain. By September, obama is going to be mr fixit and pravda will be crowing about the gubamint stats that prove it.
The good news is that most people won’t pay attention to the numbers either. They’re looking instead at their family and neighbors.
By now, the average voter has already figured out that Obama’s policies have amounted to a DELIBERATE war against the middle class and the working poor.
No they haven’t. Obama’s strategy is Defeat In Detail. There is no such creature as “the average voter”. The anti-Obama voter thinks
1) Mormonism is a non-Christian devil-worshipping cult
2) The U.S. was responsible for 9/11
3) A secret society of secret rich people secretly rule the world from some grove in California, rather than obviously doing so from D.C. and corporate boardrooms
3) The U.S. was responsible for Pearl Harbor
4) Black people are no good
5) Catholics are a non-Christian devil-worshipping cult
6) The whole problem with the world is the Jews
7) They took our jobs
8) Bankers have vampire fangs
9) Bankers are smarter than everyone else and should be able to do whatever they want
10) Evangelicals are scary. They actually believe that stuff!
11) Voting doesn’t matter anyways.
12) And so on.
The middle class has been virtually destroyed by progressive policies, and “the working poor” is a Marxist classification. There are people who work who aren’t rich yet, there are people who are proud to put in a hard day’s work to put food on the table, and then there are the “working poor”. The “working poor” vote Democrat, period, except when they vote Communist.
There IS an average Obama voter. This voter firmly believes that it is imperative that they stand in Solidarity (Commie reference, FYI) with everyone else who opposes traditional American values. Whether that’s a free economy or protection of the life of unborn children, the average Obama voter is willing to partner with absolutely anyone as long as their pet issue gets play. They are more than happy to worry about eating each other after they have ground the rest of us into dust.
Look at the history of the USSR. Stalin, Trotsky, and Lenin were allies before they turned on each other. Plus ca change in la USSA.
Defeat in detail. It’s how the majority loses to a consistent, organized minority. Watch it happen in 2012.
Good bye, America.
I am sick about it but I’m afraid you are right. Every move he makes these days is an electioneering effort while the GOP candidates degrade each other’s images. The party should have forced them to end each debate with a reminder from at least one of them than every one of his opponents would serve America a million times better than Obama.
Obama is buying voters with each move and whoever ends up leading the GOP will have to pull magic rabbits out of the hat because the majority of voters don’t consider what is good for the country; they want to know “What’s in it for me.”
1389…tell us what the solution is…..Mr. Goldman is right on the numbers…and i think a lot of the “brains” of the establishment, keeps a sharp eye on his blogs, because it is one thing to do a snow job on the masses of sheeple that are led around by any lie that the Dems tell them, There is no fooling the ones that really seek the truth….Why the msm goes alone with 0b0zzm0 th cover for him is totally beyond human understanding…Well Mr. G. your very words “0b0zz0 is toast” is very encouraging, and i fully agree with you that whomever is nominated we must all get behind with all our might…
.Jimi Belton
Government controlled statistics won’t feed, clothe, or house the weary. Do you really think people (if they have the energy) will read them and say – gee – everything sounds great out there, but my life sucks so I guess I am a loser. And live with that? Come off it. Remember the words of Ronald Reagan: a recession is when your neighbor loses a job. A depression is when you do. Those people whom you think will be pumped by government statistics will be living through their very own Obama created hell on earth depression. Get real.
I think it comes down to how many people Obama has lead into complete addition to welfare money. Obama’s goal is to make as many people as possible totally dependent upon him and the Progressive State. Kinda like a feudal Lord dontcha know.
“A recession is when your neighbor is out of work. A depression is when you are out of work.”
No charts needed.
And a “recovery” is when Obama’s out of work!
It just follows naturally.
We all miss Ron Reagan’s quips and his economy.
Tell a lie long enough and people will believe it. That’s what all the politicians have done for too many years.
Listening to the radio this morning, a talk show host – had a guy on who was going to tell us HOW to “fix” the economy – whether or not Obama could “fix” the economy. I thought he might know what he was talking about…..I expected him to say, “No, the president cannot ‘fix’ the economy….all he can do is sign off on bills that make this a business-friendly place.”
Instead, he rails on the REPUBLICANS WHO ARE FIGHTING AGAINST EVERYTHING THE PRESIDENT IS TRYING TO DO TO FIX THE ECONOMY. That’s not true….they don’t have enough votes/power to do that. AND Obama cannot “fix” the economy, but there he was on the radio, sounding off for all the brain-less listeners, spouting the party line for whoever is still believing the president would JUST fix all this, IF ONLY THOSE PESKY REPUBLICANS WOULD JUST SEE HOW DARN SMART HE IS, AND WHAT GREAT IDEAS HE HAS!
Do not despair. There is no chance Obama has increased his number of supporters since he took office.
I remember the early days, how most people were supportive of Obama, expecting him to be the savior of the country– or at least light years better than Bush.
Almost all of the people I know personally who supported Obama have now turned against him. It is quite remarkable– very few will defend him, except to say that Bush did it, too.
How unfortunate for our nation that Bush was so disliked that we ended up with someone far, far worse. At least Bush loved this country, and was not trying to “transform” it. watch the videos of Bush going out to the airport in Texas to welcome the troops home, along with many other citizens. It will lift your spirits about what this country was and will be again, after we are rid of the snake in the White house.
All of the media fakery in the polling numbers we are being fed will not help Obama. He is done. The same people who voted in 2010 are the most determined voters this nation has seen in our lifetime. They may not be as vocal now, but they are determined as hell, and they are going to the polls in November. They will be there to help end the reign of hell that is Barack Obama.
I don’t think people vote on the numbers they read in the newspapers, but on their own experience.
Fuel prices will keep the prolonged drilling ban and the Keystone pipeline on peoples’ minds. I would put ads at gas stations this summer: You Are Paying For Obama’s Campaign Tactics.
The biggest crash in the history of gasoline prices happened in the 10 weeks before the 2008 election. In the summer of 2008, gasoline was above $5 in the high-cost states, and in the mid to high 4′s in other states. By Nov 4 2008, the price of gasoline was under $2 in most states.
Energy was McLame’s bigget issue. It’s the reason he picked Sarah Palin.
In early 2009, barack obama bowed to the Saudi king.
In the month before the 2012 election, the price of gasoline will not be on the minds of the American people. Absolutely not.
The oil prices dropped but so did the price of all commodities. After years of a weak dollar and fed priming we had a commodity bubble it fell apart in September of 2008.
This prices in commodities are also pumped up from so much fed priming. Though they are also high from anti energy policies, which will not be changing soon. Energy prices will not fall like that again because only part of it is a bubble.
While the saudis may love Obama’s grovelling and anti-Israel stance, they fear Iran even more and realize that for their own long term good Obama needs to slither back to the cesspool, chicago.
I look for the Saudis to keep oil prices high for the remainder of the year.
The biggest crash in the price of gasoline occurred in 1986 after the price of a barrel of crude went from a stable price of nearly $40 to a low water point below $10. The $40 dollar figure was almost as anomalous as the $10 figure but gasoline prices were fairly reflective of these wild swings. In 2008, the average price for a gallon of gas never even went to $4, much less $5. As a response to this article, I would say that most people can’t even calculate a percentage, so you are right that these charts and graphs won’t mean a thing on election day.
I hope you are right.
And I hope that relentless propaganda won’t impact their perception.
I live in Amherst, MA an area (5 colleges) which in the past seemed immune to recessions. What am I seeing now? Empty store fronts, dead malls, no new construction and no Obama 2012 stickers!
BTW, I’m in awe of you:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_FIBatIhfE
It’s the opposite here in MT. We weathered the recession fairly well except for some bruises in real estate, the state has had a budget surplus throughout the entire recession (true fact!) and the recovery seems well underway. We have a good Blue Dog Dem. governor with a tough Republican state house to thank for that, and Obama rightfully will get no credit for our prosperity. Especially after the Keystone XL hijinks.
It’s interesting, but the states doing poorly can blame Obama, and the ones doing well are doing so in spite of his Administration. Sounds like a win-win to me.
If only people did vote out of their own experience. But if that were true, Obama couldn’t possibly have the 46% approval rating that he has. No,it is terrible to have to admit that the media has a great effect on the way that the average person sees the world, and the media will be going all out for Obama. Few people will read of these statistics, and large numbers will be convinced by the media that whomever the Republicans put up will be worse than the incumbent.
Unfortunately, the Republicans are trying their best to blow this thing, and they stand a pretty good chance of succeeding.
Mr. G that is a charitable way of saying who are you going to believe? Me or your lying eyes?
Quite right, Mr. Goldman.
What we experience speaks louder than the charts can. The charts only confirm what we already know.
Proreason must think that once our country’s economy improves that our personal economies will suddenly improve as well and we’ll all just forgive and forget. Finally getting a paycheck again doesn’t mean your troubles are over. It can take a long time to get back on your feet. Those of us who still have jobs are not blind to the pain of others. The government can’t hide those hurts from me or from anyone else, no matter how hard they try to.
no Eva, I think the media will put a full-court propaganda press on and it will have a very heavy impact on millions of people, including some people who would ordinarilly vote against obama because of their personal economic situation.
It’s really not an arguable point.
Mr Goldman assumes that the economy will be bad enough that the propaganda won’t work. I would be very surprised if he totally disagreed with my point. It’s just a matter of degree.
As I’ve said elsewhere, I hope he’s right. I just don’t think the republican party and the candidates should bank on it.
I’ve been watching how Americans respond to the propaganda of the MSM since 1970 when my family returned to the USA from Rhodesia and saw how that country was systematically herded into despotism by the liberal press and politicians. The ability of the press to help those in power control the narrative began to decline in the Carter years and has waxed and waned a bit, but overall, it continues to decline. I don’t know this for a fact, but it seems to me that newspaper and magazine readership as well as TV news viewing were actually declining even before the internet. This may have had something to do with real literacy rates and bad schooling, but I also like to think that folks can tell when they are being lied to.
David, good article, but you have left out the obvious in your calculus:
“BREAD AND CIRCUS”
The left owns the narrative. We are screwed. Too many turnips in the American garden.
While it is likely you are right in this case, I remeber countless times when the media’s playign up or down the economy made a difference. Bush I, end of term, for example.
The Barack Obama cum Galbraith trilogy of self-imagined prescient, big footed governance and commerce strangling unions, all working in tandem with politically favored big business (green businesses as it were) pretty much sucks, don’t it?
David – From your pen to God’s eyes.
WTF?
I hope you’re right. But my non political interests sites tend to attract a greater % of liberals and people who think they’re moderates, and I am still seeing a lot of lickspittle adoration of not just BHO, but of his even more loathsome spouse. I am also seeing many comments like, ‘I am disappointed in Obama but there’s no way I could vote for any of the repub clowns’-that’s a very common sentiment on my nonpolitical sites.
I think the best we can hope for is, young voters stay home, and whoever runs against BHO ekes out a (very) narrow victory.
Perhaps, but those people are less likely to vote at all. You are more likely to vote if you are very passionate about one candidate, or if you are fearful or appalled by one candidate. I speak as a long time Independent who rarely voted until my children were old enough to be embarrassed that I didn’t fulfill my civil obligation.
Ever ask them how much they actually know about any of those “Repub clowns”?
…mean that person will stay home and pout on Election Day. Goodie.
Mr.G, all of us here and on similar websites know how it works but what percentage of the voting public do we really represent? I mean, how many of the voters really understand that the numbers given out by the Government are fudged to look good? The main trick that sticks in my mind is not counting those that just gave up trying to find work as you pointed out.
We have to get that out to the many voters that only see what the Government and the MSM want them to see.I know this is just one of many phantom facts Obama and his machine crank out but how do we fight it?
What are the odds that Pres. Obama will lose the vote in November after he destroys Iran’s military capability in (mid-to-late)October 2012?
When have we ousted a President in times of successful war?
Its an almost metaphysical certainty that he won’t.
On LSD you say.
Bush I.
Just won Gulf War 1, got voted out.
My concerns, Dr. Goldman, about your analysis are the unexamined assumptions.
As pro-reason has pointed out, the statistics coming from the Obama WH will almost certainly be rigged; this is nothing new; it’s a basic factor of Obama’s campaigns. Obama has NO ability to connect to reality; he lives in an imaginary, a virtual, world, of his own authorship. The images in this world are meant to control, to persuade, to manipulate you to His Will.
Obama is going to present an image of himself as ‘The Loving Kind Man’; he’s started to sing love songs to the public – and that will be repeated. He’s blaming the ‘insiders’, ie Congress in Washington for ALL the problems. [He's previously blamed Bush..that will continue; I doubt if he'll continue with his other evil agents: the Japanese tsunami, ATM machines..etc..] Obama will present himself as the eager-to-please, kind, generous almost-a-teenager guy from the sticks, whose love-for-Americans is being held back by the Evil Old Guys in Washington.
He’s superb at emotional manipulation. Don’t ever underestimate his skills in this area; he moved into this mode as a young boy.
As others have pointed out, most people don’t read the statistics; we aren’t all ‘political junkies’.
Furthermore, what a lot of economic analyses are ignoring is the almost organic adaptive nature of an economy. As an example, among the black community, with its high unemployment, – that isn’t the only statistical reality to consider. DOn’t think that these people will vote against Obama because of this. They will move into other economic modes. I suggest we will see an explosion of the black market economy. And – an explosion of gangs and criminal activity.
Among civilian unemployment, made desperate by the Obama regime’s refusal to enable Investment wealth to be produced and used in the economy – I predict we’ll see an increase in public service jobs.
Obama will also define capitalism as ‘carnivorous and rapacious’ – ignoring that capitalism is really a form of evaluation. Within capitalism, we have the right to evaluate the goods and services for quality. Under socialism, this right to evaluate is removed from us.
[As an aside - consider the recent GOP debate where the moderators informed the audience that they were NOT to evaluate - no cheers, claps or boos. Hmm. That is removing a basic power from the audience who are reduced to passivity, rather akin to worshippers of Mao or Kim Jung Il in Korea.]
Actually there has been a net loss of more than 500,000 public service jobs due to the collapse of state budgets. To some extent that may help Obama. But again, people vote the reality of their lives not the reported data.
“I suggest we will see an explosion of the black market economy. And – an explosion of gangs and criminal activity”.
I’m not so sure about that. Note the decline in US crime rates since the late 70s, 80s and 90s (http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm). I suspect that demographic factors and incarceration policies are more significant in influencing crime rates.
“I suspect that demographic factors and incarceration policies are more significant in influencing crime rates.”
Yes, those and the fact that once in most U.S. areas only criminals and police were armed. Now there are a lot of citizens lawfully armed and dangerous to criminals.
Etab,
“As an example, among the black community, with its high unemployment…DOn’t think that these people will vote against Obama because of this”
So sad but true, as I’ve witnessed all my prior life in the Peoples Republic of Jeresy.
Blacks continuouly voting en masse for democrats, particularly Black Democrats who simply abuse them with malfeasence and outright theift ala Sharpe James et al.
The mentality seems to be, if a “brother” can “git some”, even at THEIR OWN EXPENSE, well then good for him, getting over on “the man” and all.
Sad, but Obama has 99.9 % of them in his pocket, as well as 99% of the guilty white liberals, government employees, the media, teachers and universities and the younger kids who attend them…
It will take an absolute miracle (that I dont believe will occur) regardless of any qualities of any republican candidate, to un-seat His Lordship Obama.
Speaking as someone who was born and raised in Detroit (1952-1977), all I can say is, “Hey, tell me about it.” I can’t even begin to imagine how bad things would have to get before the majority of blacks would vote for a Republican.
Sad, yes, but look at the silver lining to that dark cloud. Blacks have always voted heavily for the party of slavery, the Klan, and Jim Crow. But their population is shrinking relative to the total U.S. population. So Democrats won’t be seeing a lot of new voters there. Guilty white liberals have a lot less money to feel guilty about, thanks to their home equity and savings being crushed. The establishment media is dying, there are fewer glam jobs and a whole lot of quasi-permanent internships. The education bubble is deflating; in higher ed the tuitions have been zooming upward hockey-stick fashion in the last few years so there’s fewer students and more drop-outs, in lower ed the states are letting teachers go.
I doubt Obama can corral crowds as big as he did in 2008 and they won’t be delirious, they’ll be dejected this time around. And surly. And meaner. More like Chicago of ’68 than ’08. Voting for Obama is just not going to be fun this time around, it’ll be painful. Many worshippers of the zero will sit out this election.
In contrast the pro-reason, pro-freedom, anti-Obama voters are highly motivated. And the squishy middle, the so-called “independents”, are a herd looking for a reason to like whoever the Republican candidate will be – unlike in ’08 when they were ready to glom onto any morsel of a reason (true or false) to hate, as the darling Sarah Palin discovered.
ah hmmm…..the author presumes too much. The history of people world wide reveals that too many are terribly ignorant. Go tell an active female college lib that if she supports Obama her post-grad job prospects will be bleak for years to come. But also tell her that should Romney or Gingrich prevail, her all-important right to kill the gift growing in her womb (whether she is pregnant or not) will be stolen away. Guess who that gal will vote for? Obama is the left’s DREAM…he’ll do and say anything and everything to obtain a vote. He has 80% of the active media engaged in an outright re-election effort. This is no John Kerry they’re supporting…Obama is the incarnation of Karl Marx, he is their savior, he represents EVERYTHING they believe in. He opposes EVERYTHING they hate. THEY WILL SELL THEIR CHILDREN TO REALIZE HIS DREAM. Oh no, my dear friends, Obama is literally their messiah. Those of the left cannot accept Christ or God, because that would mean turning their back on the power and sanctity of Man, their ultimate God. To themselves, they are god, and there has been nothing closer to a messiah to them than Obama. This election will not be about jobs, economics, foreign affairs, and all that nonsense. For far to many, this election is about establishing the post-American, post-constitutional, proto-Leninist framework that future generations of crazies can complete. And no matter what the “numbers” tell, he is in the running……HE CAN WIN.
You are 100% right.
Overturning simple moral right vs wrong has been the Lefts goal forever. Without it, they cannot be judged. When they own the debate (as they so nearly do)they declare themselves winner of all conversations, and he is too “perfect” for them to allow the truth to destroy.
He will win in November..the contest was over before he was even born.
Well, I guess I will go shoot myself now. It has been ordained, Obama will win. But I will bet you that I will vote for the Republican and I am pretty sure everyone I know will.
African Americans will show up in droves for Obama in 2012. It’s not about the money or the work. Obama is a referendum on them.
This could be kinda neutralized by a Cain VP candidacy (or Allen West, Thomas Sowell, etc )
Not much though. Obama is the referendum on blacks and those who think that way will accept no substitutes.
I agree with your assertion that blacks will vote for Obama as disproportionately as they did in 2008, but I think they will not turn out as heavily as they did in 2008. 2008 was a historic occasion. 2012 is not. And the black community is hurting far more due to the poor economy than are most Democratic constituencies. The slowing of public sector hiring at all levels of government will impact minorities more than whites. This will discourage some number of them.
I think the same is true for young college educated kids, too. Some of them cannot find jobs, and are saddled with student loan debt, or know someone who is. These kids will still go heavily for Obama, but some will be disgusted, some will be forced to accept humiliation and move back in with their parents. This group will not be quite as motivated to vote for Obama as they were in 2008, the first chance ever to elect a black President.
If Obama is a referendum on blacks, then they’ve failed miserably too.
And he will promptly return them to slavery as his way of saying “thanks for your support.”
Conservatives have 2 modes: 1) we don’t need to fight because out victory is inevitable. 2) we need not fight because it’s impossible. That’s why we outnumber the commie-libs yet they control so much of our lives.
All it takes for the commie-libs is recognition they don’t yet control something and they spring into action.
Call me a cynic, but I very much doubt that the 98% of black voters who voted for Obama in 2008 (because he was black) are now all of a sudden going to change their votes a mere 4 years later. Unfortunately, collective tribalism trumps intellectual reasoning and statistical facts for a great many people.
I’ll bet more than 98% of Blacks voted for Obama…
I’ll bet the total number of “Black Votes” for Obama fully exceeded the total number of “Blacks” in the whole country…
In Philly and Jersey, voting machines have tallies on them before they even get plugged in.
You’ve got THAT right.
Undoubtedly, a much larger proportion of ballot-box stuffing takes place in African-American majority precincts, simply because it is easier for the vote fraudsters to get away with it. That’s because everybody already expects the vote to be lopsided for the Dems in those precincts, so nobody gets suspicious if it’s a lot more lopsided than it should be.
Of course, if you complain about that, you’ll be hearing from the Deceased-American community who will be demanding their voting rights!
Why else do you think the Democrats work so hard to get ballots into every qualifying jail cell, and work equally hard to have Military votes from overseas disqualified?
Voter fraud, and voter fraud.
Its “chilling” to them if an honest vote takes place with ID
The percentage won’t change but the numbers will.
Exactly. He didn’t deliver on the Hope & Change- liberals never do- but people fall for it every time. I’m hoping that some blacks will finally realize that the progressive message doesn’t offer progress at all, no matter whose mouth it comes out of.
This is Ron Paul’s famous Predictions speech from April 24, 2002. This is the original video compiling recent images and video to give his speech a chilling effect.
“I have no timetable for these predictions, but just in case, keep them around and look at them in 5-10 years. Let’s hope and pray that I’m wrong on all accounts. If so, I will be very pleased. ” Ron Paul
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGDisyWkIBM&feature=player_embedded
Not only can Obama win — he WILL win. The Republicans are committing suicide. They want Obama to win a 2nd term. Why are they having all these debates? The big winner is Obama…
The system is rigged. The Powers That Be want Obama to get a 2nd term. That’s the way the game is played. 8 years Dems, 8 years Repubs, 8 years Dems, 8 years Repubs…
We just had 8 years Repubs — Bush. Now it’s 8 years Dems — Obama. That’s the way the game is played. Nothing ever changes. The establishment likes the status quo. The Democrats and Republicans just keep handing power to each other, back and forth, and they (and their cronies) take turns raping the Treasury.
The 2 party system is broken. George Washington warned us in his Farewell Address about political parties, and how they would destroy the country. Well, turns out George Washington was right. The Democrats and Republicans have destroyed this country. 20 years of Bush-Clinton-Bush-Obama has destroyed this nation.
The Republicans will nominate either Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich.
If its Romney – will the Evangelical Christians vote for a Mormon? NEVER! Evangelicals are the base of the GOP. If enough of them REFUSE to vote for a Mormon – then Obama will win.
If its Gingrich – do you think that the average American voter would vote for an OLD FAT WHITE MAN over Obama? Obama will win 70-30.
America is in its death throes. The 3 Ring Circus will have no effect on America’s fate. America is going to hell in a handbasket irregardless of who wins in 2012.
Evangelical Christians hate Obama more than they dislike Romney, and that is all that matters.
I have two observations:
1.) These charts are persuasive only to the degree that the media crafts its narrative to reflect the disastrous light they shed upon Obama and his policies;
2.) In order to diffuse the political effect an October surprise war against Iran may have in helping re-elect Obama, the Republican candidate and all the PACs supporting him must point out that Obama will cynically use a war with Iran as a smokescreen for hiding the dismal facts about our economy portrayed by the charts.
The problem with starting a war in Iran is that every simulation of conventional war in Iran run at the military war colleges and the Pentagon have ended in an all out global thermonuclear war.
Nonsense. I know very senior people in the Pentagon who have worked on these scenarios and no such outcome appears remotely probably. Global thermonuclear war? Really? Russia or China will attack the US over Iran? That’s nuts.
I believe the instability initially involves Israel, Pakistan and India who are all nuclear powers.
There is no question that Iran will try to attack Israel with missiles in the event of a Western attack. From the Israeli perspective is that incoming missile conventional, nuclear, biological or chemical? How about the next missile? How about the next one? If Iranian bio or chemical weapons are destroying the Israeli population do you think there is a chance the Israelis launch a nuclear strike on Iran? Things go down hill rapidly after that. At least that was the analysis I read about during the Bush administration.
Please remember that Iran is ruled by religious fanatics who want to bring on the 12th Imam and believe nuclear war will do that.
Agreed- as long as Israel refrains from invoking the Samson Option the war will remain regional and small, but if Israel feels forced to unleash the Samson Option, there’s no stopping it. Israel nukes Moscow, among other targets, causing Russia to activate Perimetr (aka Dead Hand), which causes Russia’s land-based ICBMs to attack the US and UK, leading to full-scale retaliation by NATO against Russia. What happens next is contingent upon Chinese, Indian and Pakistani reactions to the nuclear war, as well as the Russian Navy.
Perimetr was designed with the assumption that it would only be used in the event of a NATO first strike, so an Israeli first strike totally throws the protocol off-kilter. The Russian ICBMs will be targeting industrial and conventional military assets in the US and Western Europe, especially the UK, while leaving NATO nuclear forces largely untouched (because the system assumes they’ve already been launched). Once the control missiles have been launched, any chance of cooler heads prevailing goes out the window- America and Britain will be devastated by a nuclear attack aimed at civilians and will retain sufficient nuclear arsenal to wipe out Russia with plenty of nukes to spare in case China starts acting up.
You gringos and racist white Republicans are toast. 2010 was the last gasp of White America. We are overpowering you. Soon we will control this country. We will cut off your Medicare and Social Security for you aging gringos.
It is all over for you gringos. By 2041 you gringos will be a minority. A minority that is aging, shrinking and dying. By 2050 we will be 135 million strong, about 30% of the population, an overwhelming majority in the Southwest — and an even greater percentage of children. We will soon be an outright majority.
Por La Raza todo. Fuera de La Raza nada.
A bit shrill, but your analysis of demographic trends is spot on. Obama will be re-elected and the GOP will have some soul searching to do. Romney doesn’t excite the base because they know (and are quite right) that there isn’t much difference between the policies of President Obama and Mitt Romney. Newt Gingrich may excite the base but he has negatives slightly better than the ebola virus, so independents will take a pass on him. Moreover, his marital problems and baggage are a big issue with female voters (even though they may not say so). The GOP is dammed either way.
Damn..bring a towel and wipe up your spittle you little commu-fascist-racist.
Yawn…
I LOVE YOU LA RAZA!!! I can’t wait for the racial takeover. I can almost taste the delicious burritos and tasty tacos! All that money that’s presently slated for the aging gringos? Nada, mi hombres! No more monies for you! No mas! That money will be slated for free hot enchilada lunches all across American schools! I hope to the great Serpent God of the Ancient Incas that we turn into a Venezuelan type socialist, proto-dictatorship. That would be great for us. Right? Right La Raza? Right?
Until the Jihadis come and slice off your head with a scimitar.
Hope you like Shari’ah Law.
Good, then you will start doing all the damn work and paying the bills.
Dang, it’s the daily double. Who would have foreseen the Frito Bandido and the resident commie-symp becoming butt buddies? Two losers sitting around drinking the final dregs of the Marxist koolaid. Let me fill out your bios. Juan Valdez is the busboy at the roach infested dive where the lib is the waiter with 1 inch ear gauges and the running sores on his ugly grill. Or maybe Jose is picking up his food box at the Welfare Office in Fresno where Trotsky Jr. is a part time minimum wage order puller. Whatever, a couple of pimples on the ass of civilization.
The Spaniards just about killed off every intelligent Indian in Mexico and brought the dregs of Spain to Mexico to colonize it. Mix dregs and dreck and what you get is La Raza. There are intelligent Mexicans but you aren’t one them.
I am looking forward to working as a gardener and not paying any taxes.
Actually, blacks have a lot more to lose from increasing Hispanic immigration that whites.
Hispanics will eventually intermarry with whites, and become practically ‘white’.
Hispanic is not a race. Hispanic is not a race. Look it up. Neither, by the way, is Mexican. Nor is Arab.
The Libtards refer to every human classification, every religion, nationality and ethnicity as a race so they can label everyone they dislike as racists. Don’t buy into the premise.
Are you back? Go to your room! If I want an opinion from south of the border I’ll ask my maid, little Margarita. She makes the best drinks! Just imagine tequila and lime? who would have thought?
Is this a robo-post? I could swear I read this same exact post about a week ago. Come up with some new material to channel your hate.
I think you posted the same comment a few months ago. Get some new material, hot shot.
Poor little racist. People have been making this prediction for decades, but it never seems to happen, does it? How do you explain those good Arizonans electing Jan Brewer? Here’s a news flash for you- law-abiding, legal immigrants (i.e. those who have the right to vote) are a whole lot closer to the Republican message that your little narrow single-issue brain can comprehend. You may think that you and your race-baiting buddies can keep ‘em down on the hacienda, but you can’t. As Mexican Americans prosper, they adopt middle-class and upper middle-class values and their birthrate drops, just like every other immigrant group before them. And given the importance of Catholicism, the liberal assault on their values might just hasten that process quite a bit.
I’m voting for Santorum in the primaries. He’s the only candidate committed to ending chain migration. The legal and illegal immigrant invasion of our country must be stopped otherwise the demographic realities we face will make everything else moot.
It is a good thing that more women who are mothers leave the workforce and stay at home. This is best for their families and for America – and an overdue correction.
Sure, tax revenues will fall and the workforce will shrink. Family income will fall too but money isn’t everything – family is. I know that my wife has been a stay-at-home mom for over 20 years and my children are better people because of it. She’s recently back at a part-time job but my last kid is well into high school.
It has been tough and I’ve nowhere the savings nor the property that we could have had should she have been fully employed all those years – especially here in high cost California and Silicon Valley.
But the historical fact is presidents up for re-election in a lousy economy have a high probablity of losing. Democracy requires a huge faith in the wisdom of the American people so I suspect we won’t get fooled again.
The illiterati will carry Obama to victory…that includes those that just don’t pay attention, or haven’t experienced real manipulation first hand. I’d like to believe Mr. Goldman, but unless the candidates reject the absurdity of the current debate format and address real issues instead of each other, then we are toast. People I never would expect to actually be leaning toward Obama are moving that way. And arguing against Obama demands almost a re-education that ain’t gonna happen in most cases.
It will take an external event of significant magnitude to shift the current course if the Repubs don’t right their ship soon. This administration is all about control. Only an event beyond their control will define who they really are to much of the American public.
What Goldman fails to grasp is that the nature of US politics is deeply divided. La Raza above is indicative, as are Black voters. They vote year in and out, about 98% for Democrats. Detroit adults (90% Black) are 47% illiterate. These people know they cannot take part in an America that expands and depends on a skilled labor force, they are not even fit to push a broom, because they can’t read the signs in the restroom demanding they wash their hands. So Blacks (and Hispanics) are the anti-White party, demanding massive wealth and opportunity transfers from Whites to Blacks and Hispanics. Through welfare spending, and Affirmative Action (i.e. preference for Blacks and Hispanics with lower ability as indicated by test scores, grades, criminal backgrounds, etc.)
These people will vote Democratic as they always do — the opportunity society means nothing to them because like Egyptians they are unfit for it. And always will be.
White men vote Republican about 70% of the time, Democrats are the anti-White guy party, but about a third will vote for Dems as they seek sinecures in the Media, Universities, politics, and NGOs. Steady pressure will eventually drive that to only 5% or so, as particularly Mexicans demand “more” places at the expense of White males. As Michelle Obama said, some have to give up power and money so non-Whites have more. But that is long term.
White Blue Collar women vote Republican about the same, maybe higher. Anti-White stuff hurts them — crime, harassment daily from non-White men that legally cannot be stopped, little welfare (what there is, gets lorded over them by non-Whites eager to display superiority at Welfare offices), and so on.
White PROFESSIONAL women switch. These women HAVE been hurt by the economy. But they switch around because neither party offers them much. Democrats offer some goodies, but they are LAST on the totem pole, and eat after elites and non-Whites get the spoils goodies. Unemployment matters relatively little to them, White males were hurt, not them. White professional HR, Accounting, Corporate Finance, Marketing, PR, and other female-dominated professions were hurt relatively little. What hurts them is commodity price rises in food and fuel and clothing and energy.
BUT … White Professional women side with Democrats in the CULTURE WAR. They approve of no restrictions on their sexuality, behavior, anti-White guy stuff (because they really loathe most of their male peers who have committed the unpardonable sin of being mostly equal to them and thus un-sexy — women forgive anything to the sexy men and nothing for those that lack it).
Newt Gingrich turns off White professional women in huge numbers. He is toxic to them. He is fat, White (that’s a turn-off for most White women, who prefer their men tall, DARK, and handsome), OLD, and “icky” in that the media, and infotainment celebrities disdain him. Yes this matters, see Sarah Palin. Women hate her, men like her more than women.
Newt Gingrich repels nearly all Professional White women into Dreamboat Obama’s arms, like a nerdy, fat, sweaty White guy at a pickup bar. Obama is Black (that matters A LOT!) and perceived to be socially dominant. Absent semi-survival time, this class of women will vote for Obama over Newt.
There is a chance, that Romney being rich, tall, handsome, somewhat cold (like Vampire dream-boat Edward Cullen), could out-Alpha Obama. And win.
Since the only group in play are White Professional Women, who have little interest in either group, and thus make decisions based on personal aspect, who the nominee is for Republicans is CRITICAL. Santorum is a “rigid Christian” and thus a turn-off for women determined to preserve absolute sexual freedom. Newt is the ugly fat old White cheater, discarding wives for mistresses. Not a problem if you’re Alpha and adored by the media, big problems if you are not. Paul is a joke, an angry old man considered to be loony and racist and whose fanbase is young angry White guys most White women would exile to Dimension X or turn gay if they could.
My guess is nominee Newt means a return to the Speakership of Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid has 68 votes in the Senate, and Obama introduces a unionized, personal loyalty oath Military, Reparations aka White Tax for Slavery, and a host of other things near and dear to his heart. This is NOT a Center Right, or even Center nation, but a Hard Left nation, which approves of Gay Marriage and Gays in the Military. And does not like “uppity White guys” much.
There’s more than a few grains of truth in what you say. Most don’t want to acknowledge it.
As much as I’d like to disagree with your stereotypes and conclusions, I can’t. But predicting the future is always a low-odds vocation, because all it takes is one thing that could not be foreseen to change it all.
You and your kind are done. We are the future of America. It is just a matter of time. We will soon outnumber you. We will cut off your Medicare and Social Security. Go back to Europe.
Por La Raza todo. Fuera de La Raza nada.
What is more likely is the opposite. As Europe collapses and the jihadists take over, millions of Europeans will flee to America for survival.
You are delusional. Your time is over. We are the future. Our Reconquista is almost complete. It is only a matter of time.
We will NEVER let your brethren from Europe into this country.
Por La Raza todo. Fuera de La Raza nada.
You ought to head home, carnal. Your craphole country is running out of losers to decapitate and skin. The Zetas are always up for a little fun watching little maricons like you piss their pants before the machete falls.
Sorry to break it to you…but if what you say is true…then you are in deep doo doo! Hope you enjoy living and working with the cartels!
You going to be around after the great revolution of the brown people? I won’t be, so I hope everything comes out okay for you. I picture a world full of newly minted majorities discovering that they own nothing and are servants of their new government of brown shirts. A pie that doesn’t feed its maker won’t get baked.
That’s a good point. Think of all the talent we got because of the Nazis. This could be even better.
And don’t forget China. That place is about to implode, and even if we don’t get a lot of raw talent from there, the rats that are starting to jump ship are very rich rats, indeed.
Go back to Mexico. Your country deserves you.
The best part of your future was when daddy was between your mother’s legs.
Wow. My tribe learned the hard way what happens when you piss off white people with guns.
I can’t wait to start collecting bounties for La Raza heads.
Gotta disagree. Your numbers are very flawed.
Blacks voted about 98% for Obama. His support with them has fallen by about 20 points. That doesn’t mean they will vote for the white Repub. They just won’t vote.
Hispanics vote about 70% Dem/30% Repub. Bush got 40%, which is why he won. Hispanic support for Obama is also way down.
Blue-collar women/wives do not vote in the ratio you claim. Very many of them vote like their white-collar peers. Obama’s support from them is way, way down.
Union workers, too, are big Dem voters. They are many of the white men who vote Dem. They are turning away from Obama, despite their Union masters. Obama is in big, big trouble in PA.
This is going to be a turnout fight. The Repubs are going to win this, because the disgust with, and fear of, Obama is palpable. I cannot wait to vote to throw Obam out. Just. Cannot. Wait! The Right needs no further incentive to get out and vote.
This thing is in the bag. It’s gonna be a landslide. Obama is going to lose electorally by the same amount by which he won in ’08. Don’t believe otherwise.
Thank you for providing such a calming influence Marc Malone. Two things to keep in mind that back up your bullit points.
First the transparently desperate attempt for Holder at DOJ to ramp up and disperse his politizied Civil Rights division as former staff lawyer J Christan Adams has documented repeatedly here at PJ Media – the assault on Voter ID laws and the subsequent claims of voter intimidation by libs – all amounting to a blatant attempt to empower activists to milk voter rolls (which otherwise would be properly updated and thus less fruitful to fraudlently exploit) and abuse early voting via fraud – as well as produce as much illegal alien voting fraud as possible.
These efforts are a desperate attempt to offset the lower turnout the White House KNOWS is inevitable this cycle given Obama’s miserable performance – particularly amoung the young and African Americans – two consituencies HE HAS NO WIGGLE ROOM WITH – he has to have as close as humanly possible to 100% with both or he is dead meat.
Secondly – the media constantly plays off it’s dutiful echo chamber assistance to Obama’s cause by slaming the quality of our candidates – and – that we are a ‘fractured party’.
Yes, this is the roughest primary campaign in my memory. But there is a reason that is the silver lining and the MSM will never report it so (unlike with the Occupy ‘movement’) Because people really care. Because the stakes are higher than ever. In other words conservatives are ENGAGED. ANGRY, MOTIVATED, AND INVOLVED! Of course it’s a ‘fractured’ primary – but – proclaiming it is so now and that conservatives will contiune to splinter come the general is pure oppertunistic speculation.
Yes we disagree. Except when it comes to that we live in the greatest country on earth and we need to act to stop the destructive statism exemplified by the current occupant.
Which has them scared *&^%less!
The MSM is selling fracture as Obama’s hole card for re-election. If so – why has this risk averse lead from behind community organizer in chief suddenly gone off the deep end with hail mary’s left and right – [Recess appoint Courdrey/Cancelling the XL Pipeline/courting congressional lawsuits/ignoring Fast & Furious - on top of the Supreme Court choosing to rule on Obamacare falling in the middle of the campaign season - an event he now has zero control over]
M.Malone is exactly right; this is all about turning out the vote. Every where you look THE NUMBERS FAVOR US- even if we run RON PAUL this guys got an electoral struggle on his hands!!!
(And no…St Paulie ain’t gonna happen….)
Tonight was the delusional and arrogant O-man in his element;basically claiming it’s ALREADY MORNING IN AMERICA due to his magnifigance – but – given another 4 years he’ll deliver the new utopia.
Truly astonding given the facts David Goldman prefaced.
Whiskey,
What the heck have you been smoking?
Do you seriously think that all, most, or even very many women are so sexually frustrated that sexual attraction will be their major criterion for electing a president?
I’ve got news for you. I am a happily married woman, and I am incapable of ever becoming interested in you – no matter what you might say or do or think. For one thing, you are a thundering bore. We women have a lot more interests in life other than your genitalia and your testosterone level and your personal ego and vanity. That’s what it’s all about, isn’t it?
Oh, and by the way, Newt came out way ahead in SC among women. Maybe we’re interested in a candidate who shows enough courage to tell the truth.
Finally someone hits the nail on the head and describes the one factor that separates Newt from the rest of the candidates (except maybe RP who doesn’t have a chance.)
Newt has the courage and ability to articulate what Americans need to hear. Far too long have younger Americans like myself been deluded into believing in socialism. We need someone who will fight the media and the left and EDUCATE us all into understanding why the left’s ideas are failures. Can you see Romney doing that?
I recall listening to Reagan as a kid. He talked to Americans. He explained why socialized medicine is evil and restricts freedom. We need to be re-educated about being Americans. We NEED a fighter. Newt’s a Washington insider that’s despised by Washington insiders. Perfect.
I started this election cycle with my weight behind RP. The debates and Newt’s experience has changed my mind. I beleive that American Conservatives see the same thing I see in him and are going to Rally. South Carolina was right and it will show in Florida as well.
I’m afraid your analysis is spot-on.
Most women I know simply won’t vote for someone portrayed in the media as a fat old adulterer and will vote for the “dashing” and handsome Obama instead. I don’t see the Republican Party addressing this issue at all.
The public employees will continue to vote for their sinecures, even if that means bankruptcy at the state level, because they expect a Democratic administration will cover it. The prez’s speech “warning” universities about high tuition and salaries will translate into guarantees that Obama will block legislation that could reverse matters (because he’s given them a “warning”, see?)
The MSM will be employed scaring retirees and children into thinking Republicans will take everything away from them. (On the plus side, it’s hard to see, if Gingrich is the candidate, how a new sex scandal could hurt him further.)
The last few months’ economic numbers may be skewed to portray that the economy is turning up; they can always be revised downward later.
No, it’s four more years of Obama and his “noble” aim of reducing income inequality by taxing the rich and middle-class while his super-rich backers escape via trusts, tax havens, or foreign citizenship. The traditional way democracies decay is by embracing bread-and-circuses at the expense of defense and enterprise. How can we turn this around?
DOH!bama? Dashing and handsome?
I’ll take good ol’ Newt any day over that cretinous, FUGLY dictator-in-chief currently residing [illegally] in the White House.
O.K., but you’re still casting your vote primarily based on your perception of a candidate’s masculinity, yes? The race is just starting up…soon we’ll see Obama revved up in everything from Nat’l Enquirer to People to Newsweek and CNN. Maybe a negative photoshoot of Newt on the cover of Time. Do you think it likely you’ll feel the same way then as you do now? Even if you hold out, how many other women do you think will succumb?
It may be simplistic – even sexist – but who do women of all ages and backgrounds prefer to approach, the guy who drives the silly Corvette or the guy who drives the practical sedan? Advertisers will tell you the difference is created by marketing and women are the most susceptible.
Depends on what they’re looking for. If you want someone who is going to protect your kids, you’ll prefer the guy with battle scars to Brad Pitt.
If you’re suggesting we should abandon our beliefs in order to defeat Obama, I have four words for you: “Get behind me, Satan!” If the people reject righteousness, then the calamity Obama and friends will bring upon us is exactly what we deserve. Maybe once the wicked get a taste of fascism unadulterated, they’ll decide they’d rather have Christians in charge, but I still hold out hope that the American people are better than that, that if we just stand on our principles unashamed we can yet win this battle.
It’s painful but important to see this data and have it placed in some context as you’ve done.
The apparent flatline recovery in Chart 2 is telling, and yes, it confirms what many here know. As you note, vast swaths of “invisible” unemployed aren’t counted in official ways: early retirees, small-business owners who’ve shuttered their doors, second-income earners, young people floundering in an employment wasteland.
A colleague and I were discussing this issue just the other day, and we guestimated a real unemployment rate of 21%, based solely on observation.
That said, I can’t argue with commenters above: Numbers such as these will be buried or ignored. Official stats will continue to show a gradual improvement right up to the election. It’s questionable, also, whether or not the GOP candidate will have the cojones to highlight such numbers, let alone translate them into something meaningful and persuasive for the voting public.
And that doesn’t even consider the problem of UNDERemployment. People working hard at jobs that don’t pay enough to live on, don’t have much in the way of benefits, and use only a fraction of their skill sets.
I have over 30 years of IT experience AND recently updated skills, but I can’t get a job in my own field. So I’ve been working in retail for a year and a half. Yes, I’m a heck of a good worker, and yes, if I survive long enough I’ll probably be promoted. But as of now, I’m not earning enough to take care of my family responsibilities. And the longer I’m out of the IT field, the less likely anybody will be to hire me back. What a waste of human capital, not to mention a human being’s life.
Yes, add under-employed to unemployed and the numbers are staggering.
Sounds as if you’re doing the absolute best you can under challenging circumstances, which pretty much defines the muddled, over-burdened middle.
Obama’s SOTU made it clear he intends to continue efforts to transform the US into the EU, which means defacto un-and-under-employment will remain at 20-30%or higher for some time to come.
I wish you well.
A lot of wealth has been destroyed, and the present funk, as reflected by unemployment statistics, will cause a deep deficit of new wealth creation for some time to come. It would be easy for the electorate to ignore the hard facts presented here if they were just a transient spike in the statistics, but they are not. To fuel its political exertions, this administration has been running on whatever energy came out of its distillation of the rebellious anger to be found in the familiar quarters. A lot of mileage was obtained from this (well-oiled?) extraction process (unimpeded by the EPA), but how much more political juice can again come out of these tired plays?
During the last 3 years, public discontent from a new source has come into life. Right now, the so-called “Tea Party” is not seen in the news, but it is much in play. Not being on the radar is not the same as being dead. It represents the awareness of what has been done to exacerbate the sorry conditions rather than address them seriously and responsibly. This can make a difference in the electoral ground work, and hopefully frustrate the effort to re-elect our magician-in-chief.
This does not mean that it’s in the bag. A lot of effort will be required. You don’t defeat the scoundrels by just talking them down.
“It’s hard to imagine that African-Americans, college students, and other constituencies who hailed Obama as a savior in 2008 will provide the same enthusiasm, not to mention turnabout, in 2012.”…It’s not hard to imagine at all. Blacks have proven (via their voting) that they view the world primarily through the prism of race. I doubt that the other obama groupies have grown more intelligent in the last three years. In spite of all that, I hope you are correct.
By September we will be knee deep in a war in the Middle East. Let’s see if the American people with be willing to change horses in midstream when we are faced with a war that will not be isolated on foreign soil.
It is up to us.
We can’t rely upon the republican apparatus to beat Obama. Every one of us needs to exert ourselves and personally make sure that Obama is defeated.
That’s one of the reasons why I blog.
Let me emphasize, though, that settling for an “Obama-lite”, “moderate”, “establishment”, or RINO for the GOP nominee will FAIL when it comes to defeating Obama. That means NO ROMNEY.
“Independents” are mostly apolitical and/or low-information voters. They will never bother to call their friends and relatives and neighbors to urge them to vote for any particular candidate. They don’t put up yard signs or put out mailings or contribute money. They aren’t even that likely to get out and vote on election day. It is no use attempting to pander to them by watering down your positions, because they mostly ignore politics.
When it comes to getting out the vote, doing campaign work, contributing money, writing letters to the editor, attending rallies, and so forth, you have to energize your base. The GOP base is the Tea Party. Energize them by being forthright and telling the truth and fighting back, and you win. Attempt to marginalize them, and you lose. And that’s that.
Independents are pussies.
Weak, needy, easily distracted, and undependable.
They make for fair weather friends, polite mostly, but never around when you need them.
They vote for appearances sake, have no grasp of the issues, and will support whatever seems to be the “norm” that other people “like them” tend to support.
They are the “useful idiots” of the of the Mainstream media, corralled into liberal-esque group think by the MSM and the DNC’s Commie Cynics who manipulate their mid-level intelligence and need for social acceptance.
Independents are only slightly less repulsive than full-on Leftists. They are the political equivalent of the Kitty Genovese bystanders. They didnt kill her, but stepping in to help her, or at least calling the cops “wasnt their job”.
But they feel good about themselves, because the MSM courts them as “crucial” to the process..
(of electing Leftists)
Independents are frequently pro-choice. Those of us who are pro-life are frequently characterized as extremist. They make the easy, gutless choice. I do not think pro-choice people are crazy, I merely consider them possessed by satan.
There is a pundit by the name of John Avlon who fits this model. He disparages all those ont he left and right as “wingnuts” who hold the same middle hostage. He is a pussy who is trying to carve out room as yet unclaimed under the political backboard for a few easy rebounds and some paid appearances on the cable news shows.
You might want to reconsider your argument. You need to win over as many independents as possible in order to win this election. Going out of your way to insult and alienate them is not a very smart strategy.
Thanks for pointing this out. If you can’t bring yourself to commit to a position, fine; but don’t make it a point of pride and civic virtue. That’s so annoying……..
INUNISON http://bit.ly/fVo2Tz
‘Tomorrow might be different.’ – Mack Reynolds, prescient SF author
Ask yourselves how high the cost of food, fuel and other necessities
would have to go before the people decide to throw all the bums out,
without waiting for or paying any attention to elections.
Swear to God; The amount of power you people impute to the paper ballot
and the written law, one might be forgiven for mistaking you for a bunch
of Progressive Democrats.
Mr. Goldman,
Might I request that you address the demise of interest payments to holders of FDIC insured savings accounts. My personal income taxes have dropped because the interest on money I have stored in liquid accounts in local savings banks has dried up. Since there is no interest, I cannot invest it or spend it. Surely that change has affected others and the economy as a whole.
Jerry,
The Fed is forcing investors out the risk spectrum. Economies curl up and die if no-one takes risk; if every kept their savings in FDIC-insured accounts, no-one would get capital except well-established businesses borrowing against good collateral. There would be no start-ups and no innovation.You can get dividends of 4% or 5% on electric and gas utilities stocks, which are pretty reliable, and even higher dividends on energy trusts — but if you want to be secure against the end of the world in an FDIC account, you’re not going to get any return. Why should you?
“Why should I?” Because I lent the bank my money. It appears to me that it is the banks that are risk-free. If the bank goes under, then the people cough up the savers’ money. Safe-money was always epitomized as “Treasuries.” The government has stripped the interest from those instruments as well. However, investing in government should yield less money than private savings banks, because government produces nothing, while banks lend to homeowners who pay interest on their loans.
Jerry:
If your money is “safely” invested in FDIC INSURED accounts, you have NOTHING AT RISK. Think of it as the cookie jar on your kitchen counter. It doesn’t produce much but it will always be there on the kitchen counter. If you’re looking for a return, you’ve got to put your money to work (risk). The harder it works for you (greater risk), the greater the return should be. This is not the seventies when demand pushed up the cost of money and banks even gave you toasters for opening an account. Currently, there is NO demand. In fact, you’ve got a lot of money sitting on the sidelines now in those very same FDIC accounts or equivalents.
As an aside, there are millions of us (you and I) in the same boat across the country. Even very good opportunities are being passed on due to the uncertainty of the economy. Hell, when you don’t know what an employee is going to cost you there go ANY projections. I firmly believe (God, please!) this guy is gone. And IF the next president rescinds some of these policies creating the uncertainty things will get better. But that’s only if the other elected jerks implement demand driving laws that correct some of the friction in the markets.
You can buy mortgage-backed securities, same as the bank can, right from your bank. They yield about 2.9% (but can be called away if banks refinance). There’s some risk involved in those securities (I used to trade them). If you don’t like getting no interest, you have to take risk.
Anybody that thinks this nation is going to re-elect this pathetic, ObamaCorrupt, lying-through-his-white teeth Presidential imitation fell out of the dumb tree and hit every branch coming down.
The light-footed, big eared bozo is as pitiful as was his speech.
He’s a used car salesman with a high priced microphone who thinks saying the word,”fairness” enough times into it will get him out of this mess he’s made of things. I guess his handlers figured shooting himself in the foot a few hundred more times wasn’t going to make things worse.
The fat lady’s sung. The oven can be turned off. The bum is done.
Less than 10 years after the socialists failed economic policies triggered Argentina’s hyperinflationary collapse they are in power again and the citizens of that country are facing another round of wealth confiscation, agitprop and economic collapse.
But the voting public keeps re-electing them because they promise to “spread the wealth” down to them, a promise that is NEVER fulfilled.
Once a significant proportion of a nation becomes dependant on the “gummint” it’s all over.
4 more years of Obama will usher in the United States of Mexetina. It’s change alright.
will vote in 2012 pretty much the same as back in 2008 blacks close to 100% obama, jews a little less than last time
This is likely true for blacks, but misses the point. Black turnout is going to be massively lower than it was in 2008 and the black percentage of the total vote is going to fall a lot. Blacks are going to revert to more typical turnout patterns, which are fairly low. In 2008 the enthusiasm for Obama pushed it really high. This means black voters will be a net negative on the Obama vote relative to 2008.
Jewish voter percentage will likely fall only a little, since baseline turnout tends to be higher in the Jewish community. Even there though, the enthusiasm gap will show – anti Obama Jewish voters are going to be very revved up to vote him out. Will pro Obama voters be likewise? I doubt it. There also has been some slippage for Obama amongst more traditional and observant Jews. (Orthodox and Traditional Conservative). I suspect Obama to at best keep the same percentage of the Jewish vote that Kerry got. This is much lower than he got in 2008.
These are not the only things working against Obama. Other groups are less motivated to vote democrat this time also – most notably, the white working class. The census will be taking a toll too.
I don’t have the same level of confidence as David Goldman does, but this is not going to be an easy re-election campaign for the incumbent by any means.
I agree with the author but man…so much pessimisim here, what gives? Obama is toast! The elections are a year away-Ron Paul would beat Obama. The media will go all out for him until they DON’T. (no one backs a loser in the end).
That will be by June when the polls show him getting crushed worse than Carter. It is brutal everywhere except N.Dakota. Even here in Chicago which is normally so industrially diverse that our job market is at least OK, it is horrible and Gov Quinn is putting a stake in the heart of business so he, the dems, and Obama are about to be eaten by their own (the media)-just wait and see.
Iirc you assured your 2008 Asia Times readers that Obama was unelectable.
The Hispanic population has increased 50% from 2000 to 2010.
States that used to be red are now swing states (Nevada, New Mexico, Virginia, and Colorado).
No blue state has moved rightward in the meantime.
Conservatives are delusional if they think they have any ability to halt leftism.
Ah well, countries come and go.
\\spouses who used to earn a second income but have gone back to homemaking because work isn’t available,\\
Can I get an Amen!
Obama has turned economic failure into a winning strategy thanks to Boehner’s gift of unlimited borrowing. Every college student, food recipient, illegal immigrant, unemployed person has a financial incentive to support Obama.If you can’t afford your mortgage or or your health insurance, O is your man.Employment in academia, government, and the arts is now dependent on federal spending.Hard work and sacrifice will be needed to rescue us from our insane borrowing but free money for all will get a lot more votes.$1.6 trillion in fed deficit plus $1.8 in Fed money printing will finance a heck of a reelection campaign.
To bypass the Legacy Media (and turn out or turn off voters who might be fooled by the Obama campaign) a Samizdat campaign needs to be waged.
Every time gas prices go up leave a “prices brought to you by Obama” sticker on the pump. Every time grocery prices rise put a “prices brought to you by Obama” sticker on the shelf. People will get the message soon enough.
I agree with the commenters who point out that no amount of phony government stats will fool people into thinking the economy is good. The GOP will just ask Reagan’s question “are you better off than you were 4 years ago?”.
But all that means it that the election won’t be about the economy. It will be about smears of the Republican candidate, and the wars that will start this year as a distraction. I’m surprised Spengler doesn’t figure this out, since he is usually aware of geopolitics.
Why should a foreign policy meltdown on Obama’s watch hurt the Republicans?
“I agree with the commenters who point out that no amount of phony government stats will fool people into thinking the economy is good.”
Why not, in the short term? Certainly the reverse holds true – we saw it in the 1992 election when the reported economic numbers were bad before the election then revised sharply upward after Bush #1 lost.
Small correction: Mitch Daniels isn’t a senator. He’s the governor of Indiana.
The phrase “natural increase in population” should not be in this article because immigration is responsible for almost all of that increase in the USA and there is nothing natural about it.
There may be a slight re-flow of immigrants back to Mexico and other Latin Americans due to lack of jobs. There is, in fact, a natural increase in the US working-age population. That we know with certainty. We don’t know the number of illegal immigrants.
Not true. The US fertility rate is above replacement (Just over 2 kids per woman), perhaps the only first-world country with that honor. Immigration helps, especially because we are so highly selective. The recession may have hurt our birthrate a little, but hopefully that will be temporary.
Well done. From your mouth to God’s ears.
Mr. Goldman,
In my view, your interview with Jamie Glazov linked at Granny Jan under No. 3 pure dynamite and worthy of the widest exposure. I’d like to respectfully suggest that PJMedia consider publishing the full-text transcript on this site (or that you might perhaps be able to effect its publication in that format elsewhere) because it would greatly facilitate disseminating it among contacts who rely primarily on workplace computer networks for their Internet access (including many who work at home), where opening external/foreign links of any kind is commonly completely verboten, and can be cause for disciplinary action.
Being able to copy and paste the text itself into an e-mail message would obviate this problem and increase the likelihood of its being read, since many folks have little time for consumption of serious material by the time they arrive, often exhausted, at home.
I am also of the opinion that reading text is far more conducive to comprehension, retention, and quite simply, *thinking* about what one is ingesting, and your succinct and incisive remarks deserve to be digested in this way. What I’m trying to say is I think this could be an effective wake-up message for many in a format they would “get.” Thanks for your time.
Polls show a large majority of all Americans are “conservative,” meaning that they understand and appreciate the importance to their lives of “liberty and justice for all.” No serious person can mistake Obama’s contempt for the law, and his bitter hatred of the American people and everything we stand for. His policies are maliciously destructive, conceived and intended to ruin us.
The nation’s real unemployment rate is 15% to 23%, and not going lower. By this fall gas prices are likely to be $4.00 to $5.00 per gallon. Food and utility prices will be sky-rocketing, and Comrade Zero, puppy-poo skin color or not, will be both hated and a laughing stock seen for what he is, a serial liar and criminal conspirator. There’s a good chance that Obama’s eligibility fraud will keep him off the ballot in states with 10% or more of electoral votes. Even Democrats don’t want to be seen with him. This catalogue of disaster does not strike me as a winning formula for re-electing Elephant Ears, or for holding the U.S. Senate.
The Republicans don’t stand a chance. Obama will walk it. This is not about reality – it’s about the ‘fantasy’ of Obama, and what he supposedly represents. Four more years of doctrinaire Marxism is on the way. It’s nailed on. Yes, the electorate are that dumb.
I’ve started having conversations with people about the contents of the Obamacare bill(ahem – Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act – ever notice that Communists always name things the exact opposite of what they mean?) I ask people if they know that the bill allows the government to peer into your bank accounts without warrant and remove money from it if they see fit, whether they realize that it creates and funds a private army which are beholden directly to Obama in a way that the U.S. military specifically is NOT, that it turns private industry into government industry, such as the automobile companies and student loan industry,necessitating a higher tax rate for all of us. I tell them that it sets salaries for doctors and medical personnel, reduces reimbursements, creates death panels, raises the rates for health insurance substantially and creates an army of sorts composed of physicians who are cross-trained by the military. I ask them why none of these things were ever necessary before and why they suppose they’re necessary now.
I’ll vote for ABO, but understand this: the best thing that can happen for leftoids is a time-out from Obama. Mitch is not turning back the clock, and Newt loves him some FDR. The Left got ahead of themselves just a bit, before there can be no turning back. Over forty percent of the population loves the worst President in history. A little more patience, and it’s over.
I love all the mashing of teeth here at PJM worrying about if Obama will win again. Of course he will because look at the alternatives being put out there by Republicans. Then there are the actual policy issues where the Republicans as usual are on the wrong side. In issue after issue the American voter sides with Obama – on increasing taxes on the wealthy even the tea party majority agrees never mind the moderate republicans, independents, and Dems. On what has been already implemented in the affordable care act the majority agree and the majority also want a public option which was not put in the act. On reducing the size of the military the majority agree. It’s when the actual facts and policies are discussed that the rabid Obama haters show they have no clue about what the real American think. But then that’s why they call them ideologues
Flaming Liberal your response is just sad. Do you really think Obama plans to share the booty with you? You’re just a pawn, though in your revolutionary fervor you no doubt imagine yourself to be quite grandiose. The American people have not been with him on ANY of his major power plays. If he were doing such wonderful things, why do you suppose he has to lie about everything he does? Why does hide records, hatch secret deals with the Muslim Brotherhood and other terrorist groups on a daily basic (his Friday document dumps show that he does), obstruct justice and attempt to close down the Freedom of Information Act so that no one could get their hands on public documents? Why does he appoint czars (Czars for Cripes sake!)and make silly little intentional gaffs in public (such as saying that he’s visited 56 or maybe 57 states – when he knows that it is the Federation of Islamic States that has 57, not the U.S.)?
I’ll tell you why. It’s because all narcissists think they’re smarter than EVERYONE else and it is always their downfall. They’re so proud of their naughty accomplishments that they have to let people in on the big secret in EVER so subtle ways. Obama has been dropping clues for a long time and people have been picking up on them for a long time. Now, the thing about this particular small fish is that he’s swimming in a big, international pond that is way smarter than he is. He’s being used for his skin color and his true religion. He’s a mere battering ram and will end up in the compost heap in the end.
I think you mean gnashing.
Spengler is an astute judge of politics, and I respect his opinion in all things. Here’s one of his best predictions, from 2008:
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page/JI03Aa02.html
That sound you hear is PJM voters chomping at the bit! Do not be deceived, young un.
Today in the office, a young (~30) admin assistant asked a couple of us what we thought of Obama’s SOTU speech last night. Here is a paraphrase of what my colleague, a retired Navy SEAL no less, stated:
“I was most impressed by his statements about the military and the SEALs in particular. I think they were heart-felt and genuine. Etc., etc.”
I am here to tell you that we are doomed when otherwise sensible people can still buy into “the Obama show” after three years of B.S. I am afraid that there are millions more gullible people like him out there, too.
For the people to live the King must die!
Much as we might like to believe we are superior to our ancestors, many of the same primal instincts live on deep within each of us. We may no longer sacrifice our ruler to propitiate the Gods and bring rain but we do still somewhere deep inside associate whomever is in charge with the greater prosperity or failure of society as a whole, whether it is under the rulers control or not.
One need not make any argument about whether or not Obama is actually responsible for the current state of affairs. It is sufficient that he is in charge.
What struck me about those stats (forgive me for my Sociology background)is how the employment ratio has risen so high since 1950. Woman in the workplace, divorce, and maybe a couple of other factors have radically changed the financial expectations of households and surely depressed wages and opportunities for men. The social outcomes of this are in question as well. I have nothing against women (I have a mother and a wife!), but it is strange sociological ground we are treading. While in the act of complaining to Home Depot about their social policies I noted that of the Home Depots in my region, half were managed by women!
I’m not trying to make a broad statement or come to any conclusions, but that chart is shocking.
Yes, it is shocking. And goes a long way toward explaining the increase in income disparity, because in the 1950′s you could reasonably assume most of those employed were men and had nonworking spouses, therefore the money was spread out among families. But with so many dual-earner households now, looking at those stats that means there are a whole lot of households with no one working at all.
I used to respect Spengler so much I took his word as gospel, and this article would have warmed my heart and reassured me in troubled times, but I remember his articles for the Asia Times stating unequivocally that Obama would never be elected in the first place.
This one in particular sticks in my mind:
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page/JI03Aa02.html
I didn’t have to Google that, I had it bookmarked with other favorite articles from the ’08 election. Now it makes me sad. It also makes me doubt the certainty that “Obama is toast”.
Yeah, I don’t have much faith in the people turning this ship around…..except when I remeber they did vote well in 2010. Let’s hope the same ‘wake up’ happens again.
“Andrew Sullivan: How Obama’s Long Game Will Outsmart His Critics”
http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2012/01/15/andrew-sullivan-how-obama-s-long-game-will-outsmart-his-critics.html#comments
But the MSM will never report this broader and more accurate unemployment rate, so most voters will never find out about it.
So far, no one on this site has considered the possibility that O is holding up the trans-US oil pipeline until a short time before the elections. Suddenly, in one fell swoop, he will have neutered the Republican claim that O is intentionally witholding oil from the US economy. Just this report alone would probably cause gasoline futures prices to drop like a rock, further endearing himself with apolitical, fence-sitting voters (so called independents).
You’ve never traded oil futures, I’d bet. What did energy futures do when Obama canceled the pipeline? Nothing in particular. Why should approving it move the market? Large and liquid markets are not that easy to manipulate.
I suppose you’re right, but there is always the possibility that traders restrained their excitement about it in November when the proposal was made, knowing that O’s penchant for spiking oil drilling might influence federal permitting for the pipeline. If so, then there would have been no negative reaction when he rejected it. But of course, this is just speculation.
However, pulling the approval stunt a few weeks before the election would still be a smart move on his part. He could even reverse his reversal after the elections.
The truth is that no one knows what is going to happen, because no one knows what is in the minds of the people who elected Obama in 2008. They aren’t talking. It could be that they are ashamed of having dunked the nation into despair, or it could be that they have no idea that there is despair, or don’t care. Rasmussen routinely shows Obama having a 45% general approval rating. Political correctness is laying on the land like a fresh snow and shows no signs of thawing, and most of the “moderates” still get their news from the Far Left media.
Jimmy, the peanut, Carter lost to Reagan because of the Iranian hostage situation, but Obama is not going to let anything like that happen. In fact, if necessary, Obama will bomb Iran 2-3 days before the election to create the necessary confusion to get a bump in the polls, if needed; or, he may just bomb Arizona and other potential red states to dampen enthusiasm for voting. After all, nothing he has done so far has been challenged by our watchdogs in Congress.
If Obama pre-empted the Super Bowl, or issued an executive order banning Dancing with the Stars, then we could predict more accurately; but, for now it is anyone’s guess what frame of mind the moderates will wake to on election day. My guess is that they will be favorable to the great progress Obama has brought in his speeches.
At this point it is difficult to say if Republicans may take the White House, the Senate, and an even greater majority in the House; or, if the moderates, enraged by the Republican’s intransigence to Obama’s great government recovery program, may return us to 2009. (Consider that for a moment–Obama with no re-election to nag him, Nancy Pelosi back as Speaker, and Harry at the Senate–”change we could believe in”).
Some days I am very optimistic, others I buy canned food and lamp oil.
“From each according to his ability, to each according to his need” Marx
(paraphrased from Obummers SOU speech)
I don’t think Obama can be reelected either for much the same reasons as Goldman outlines, though I notice that many on the right are pessimistic. Well, better worried than complacent.
In 2008 Obama won by 6.8% with the most irrationally exuberant campaign in US history. It is shocking to review the articles and videos of that year and the first few months after the inauguration. However, that messianic fervor has entirely dissipated even among his hardcore followers. There is no way Obama can run on “HOPE” in 2012.
To be sure Obama enjoys the incumbent’s advantage and the media’s left-wing bias. There is a hard floor to his support among blacks, hispanics, and liberals that will not be collapse, however much Obama deserves it.
Still, Obama has lost crucial support among independents and moderates. According to polls, the US remains a center-right country and the spread between those who identify as conservative versus liberal is at an all-time high (42% to 32%) for the past twenty years.
This election is the Republican Party’s to lose.
Or O’s to steal.
all this is about the Executive – whereas our Constitutional government is based on – we the people –
what is the consequence of towns, counties, States – Fed. House and Senate – moving away from the Left – democrat-party — isn’t that where the concentration on moving away from leftist policy really lays? perhaps more emphasis should be there – perhaps it is — would this not effectively help neuter the Executive, even if Obama was to be reelected?
the division of powers is how our Constitution was designed to solve this sort of problem – it should still work.