Saudi Ascendancy After Arab Spring
It was delusional to expect the so-called Arab Spring to foster democracy; the uprisings occurred because Chinese pigs will eat before the Arab poor, as I wrote last February. Dictators who deliver basic necessities of life might be tolerated, but not dictators who don’t. Far from strengthening democratic movements, the spiraling economic collapse of the non-oil-producing Arab countries has strengthened the position of Saudi Arabia.
It has been clear for some time that Riyadh regards the Obama administration with hostility and contempt, if only for its incompetent handling of Iran; that much was clear from Wikileaks reports of Saudi-American consultations after 2009. Because the Saudis do not trust the clown show on the Potomac, the usual American sources are out of the loop, so it is harder to work out what Riyadh is up to than ever before. Nonetheless, a few straws in the wind are worth special attention.
MEMRI reported on Thursday that a prominent Saudi academic and newspaper columnist, Amal ‘Abd Al-’Aziz Al-Hazzani, “called on the Arab rulers to learn from Israel’s handling of the social protests there, contrasting the swift measures taken by the Israeli government and Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu with Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad’s use of military force against his own people.” The translation is eye-popping:
If only some of the Arab leaders would emulate Israel’s leaders in their precision in defining and dealing with their enemies. The Israelis see anyone who tries to revoke their right to the land as an enemy, and treat them as an enemy in speech and in deed – but they consider the rights of the Israeli citizen to be a red line.
In contrast, Syria’s leaders see as an enemy anyone who poses a threat to their remaining in power, even if he is a Syrian citizen – while the lands of the Golan, sadly, are a green line.
Grudging admiration for one’s enemy shouldn’t be confused with sympathy, to be sure, but it is hard to remember anything quite like this. Saudi Arabia never will reconcile itself to a permanent Jewish presence in the Land of Israel, but the fact is that Iran represents a clear and present danger to the Kingdom while Israel represents no danger at all. If Iran exploits the hopelessness of the Arab poor, the Saudi monarchy will be at risk. And that makes Israel a strange sort of ally of convenience.
It is instructive to watch what the Saudis actually are doing. For one thing, they are delaying payments to the Palestinian Authority, which cannot meet its payroll. They also appear to be bankrolling Egypt, which turned down the International Monetary Fund’s offer of urgently-need loans. They are offering Pakistan whatever economic aid it might require — what some Pakistani sources reporting on the prime minister’s recent visit to Riyadh call a “blank check.”
Syria seems to be ground zero for whatever’s on the menu for September according to R.Kahlili
It’s not hard to see Iran won’t take a back seat to the Saudi’s machinations and they are stoking the fire in Gaza and soon on Israel’s northern border.
Could WW III be far off ?
I don’t think China and Russia will sit this one out as they did America’s last 3 adventures in the camel land.
Buckle up and get your radiation repellent out.
Now that it has “lost its Ankara”, what ill winds are blowing it and are rocks close at hand?
It seems to me that Islam is simply rearranging the deck chairs…this tyrant for that monarch etc. I believe this will continue 1. As long as the money flows (oil, that is) and 2. The Islamic narrative remains unchanged/ challenged. The final answer is a fundamental change in the narrative. For example:
Islam was high jacked when Mohamed made the trip from Mecca to Medina. He was killed/ captured (pick one) and replace by a doppelganger. The impostor, a priest of the desert goddess Allah, and his minions modified the Koran and invented sharia law in order to maintain their positions of power. Thus original Islam (Islam al Mecca) was taken over by the evil Islam al Medina, the most prominent form today.
You can fill in the rest of the story to suit.
Just saying.
The Saudi’s always have the most organized end-game. I don’t trust them but sure have to tip my hat to ‘em for making the best moves for their outcome at just the proper time. Would that we might ever have an administration capable of doing the same. We might want to start by not thinking so highly of our own brainpower. Would S ever have a place in a future administration?
I’m the 3rd commenter on this post. By this time next year this blog will be jam packed with comments. Mark my works.
Spengler, I’m a fan for many years now, (atimes.com and firstthings.com).
I’m waiting for the entire ME to blow up. My biggest fear is that the rank and file islamist leaning morons will believe that Israel is the cause of the failure of the Arab Spring to bring about change and jobs. I believe there is no hope for islam (islamsfatalflaw.com) and these robots will rally around any influential leader that tells them that it is Israel behind all Islams failures.
Obama is a midget compared to the events unfolding right before our eyes. Where are America’s leaders. Don’t we have any Roman Consuls who are up to the task?
Oil-rich Saudi Arabia ought to pick up all the tabs from these muslim states that cannot survive without Western aid. If our leaders weren’t so ignorant, they’d know that every Western penny sent to muslim states is, one way or another, financing our destruction at the hands of black-cube worshippers. And that should be good enough a reason to quit such madness once and for all. Let the Umma fund its own jihad.
So right!
http://msmignoresit.blogspot.com/2011/07/editors-of-arab-dailies-assess-war.html
The American policy of appeasing the Saudis started long before Obama, but he has “achieved” new lows in that regard. Muslims don’t respect appeasers. They simply pocket the concessions and demand more. They do respect a show of strength, and it had better not be an empty show – it must be backed up with deeds and it must never, never be followed by an apology to anyone.
Despite Obama’s obvious sympathies for Islamic expansionism, the man is just downright stupid. He cannot comprehend the fact that Islamic countries will never be friends with a predominantly non-Muslim America, no matter what he himself does.
Suni-Shia conflict is a blessing for the free world and needs to be encouraged.
“we might say that the Good Ship Obama has lost its Ankara”
OK, how long have you been waiting to use this?
There seems to be misunderstanding regarding the House of Saud;
The United States Petro Dollar system, which is the foundation for US economy since 1971, is based on Saudi Arabian Petroleum production. The Bank called citi-solutions in New York is the liquid petroleum fund pool, in the hundreds of billions of dollars that move in and out of the NYSE and COMEX daily.
The US has been economically impotent since 1971, the movers and shakers in the world have the US over an Oil barrel and whatever the House of Saud decides to do, the US can say nothing as the House of Saud alone supports the US dollar on world markets.
When the House of Saud gives money to any group in US dollars, it is from this Petro Dollar system that is comes from, which is funded by US taxpayer and petroleum revenue streams.
Enjoy the view, your paying for it.
Syria sizzles, but it ain’t bacon!
http://msmignoresit.blogspot.com/2011/08/what-is-in-syria-that-keeps-obama-quiet.html
I can see some good things coming out of Saudis leading a Sunni opposition to Shia Iran. Relieves the US of some burdens although it takes some control out of the hands of our Administration. It should also make the House of Saud more appreciative of what military support we do provide.
It also means increased proliferation pressures. First Pakistan, then Iran, soon Saudi Arabia.
Nuclear war is always ugly but less so at a distance. And frankly, what difference do ME city dwellers make to world current or economic events? What do they export or contribute that is positive?
They are a sink, not a source, of civilization.
It would be helpful if the Saudis built a pipeline along the Sinai border and turned Gaza into an oil refinery/export ‘colony’. Pay Egypt to keep it secure.
One way for the Saudis to develop a cold peace with Israel while containing Hamas and securing the Sinai.
I thought the Saudis already “bought” Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, and labor force.
The real question for Turkey is what will the Kurds do?
So would it be helpful to covertly fund Turkey keeping them strong enough for them Iran and Saudi Arabia to engage in a barrage a trois?
Do the Saudis have the urge for hegemony as much as Turkey and Iran?
Saudi being able to influence the outcome in the mid east and still have this animus towards Israel; it seems they feel that Israel can be taken out. Israel is our friend, Saudi and all its barbarian cohorts will be no match when a confrontation flares. It may be that Saudi will send funds openly or surreptitiously but having nothing else; when the stuff starts flying it may occur that all of a sudden all electronic networks will be for some reason shut down. Won’t even be able to use the phone. Indeed very possible.
In March 2011 a retired Suadi commodore published the following piece, “What if Arabs had recognized the State of Israel in 1948?” (http://arabnews.com/opinion/columns/article322715.ece), it occurred to me that it was part of an approved KSA information operation to align their security policy more closely with that of Israel and stick a spoke in Iran’s wheel.
Spengler – Have you seen this piece or heard of the author, Abdulateef Al-Mulhim, Commodore (Retd.), Royal Saudi Navy? He’s also written a few other iconoclastic pieces.