Tuesday morning I will be interviewing for PJTV Israeli Ambassador to the US Michael B. Oren. The subject is Iran – and if there is any issue that can wipe our economic woes (or anything else) off the front pages or, more importantly, the top of Drudge, that is it. As that famous Eighties cartoon from the LA Weekly once had it, “Nuclear war?! … There goes my career!”
I have been doing my homework for the interview, checking with knowledgeable friends, surveying the papers for the latest information. The situation, always fluid, is at a dangerous point. According to the AFP:
US Secretary of Defence Robert Gates said on Saturday he doubted a deal to send some of Iran’s uranium abroad for enrichment was close, directly contradicting Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki.
The latest spat comes amid Western powers’ growing impatience with Iran over what they say is a failure to respond clearly to the enrichment proposal, amid suspicions the Islamic republic is trying to acquire a nuclear bomb.
“I don’t have the sense we are close to an agreement,” Gates told reporters in Ankara, the day after Mottaki said that Tehran was “serious” about sending some uranium abroad for enrichment and that a final deal was near.
I wonder how this dovetails with the startling report from Europe today referenced by Michael Ledeen:
“Iran has developed a nuclear warhead, according to an article in the German newspaper “Sueddeutsche Zeitung”. A foreigner alleged to have helped Iran towards developing nuclear weapons is from the former Soviet Union…The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has already mentioned the employment of a foreigner in the nuclear programme.
If true, this is, as the saying goes, a game changer. If I were the Israelis, I would – to put it mildly – be disturbed. I’m disturbed as an American.
It also adds some urgency to the questions raised by Bret Stephens in his WSJ opinion piece of last week – Seven Myths About Iran. One of those myths – A [military] strike would rally Iranians to the side of the regime – is particularly pertinent with the “Green” democracy movement on the brink of staging one of its biggest demonstrations on February 11. The Islamic regime is apparently about to counter them as never before, bringing in thousands of their “Basij” thugs from the countryside. Our president has been frustratingly neutral – again to put it mildly – about the Iranian democracy movement, seemingly to induce Ahmadinejad, Khamenei & Company into some sort of nuclear deal. It’s as if Obama doesn’t believe – or perhaps doesn’t want to believe – what the Islamic regime clearly describes as their own messianic goals from their Khomeinist Shia philosophy.
I surely will be asking Ambassador Oren about this. He may not give me direct answers. He is a diplomat after all, with all that entails. But it will certainly be interesting to get his views, because Oren is no conventional diplomat, awarded for his generous campaign contributions with a coveted ambassadorship. He is a distinguished historian and the author of the superb Six Days of War: June 1967 and the Making of the Modern Middle East. Don’t hold it against him that he is a graduate of Columbia and Princeton. Or that his book won the Los Angeles Times Book Award. (FULL DISCLOSURE: I have been a judge in that award, but in another category.)
Kidding aside, I am obviously looking forward to this interview and, in the interactive spirit of Pajamas Media and the Internet, solicit your questions. I know this audience realizes how deeply important this issue is to all of us.
“Don’t hold it against him that he is a graduate of Columbia and Princeton.”
It is safe to normally assume that a soft science graduate from Columbia or Princeton is an overrated mediocrity. This is especially true if they obtained their degrees after 1975 when grade inflation became the norm. These graduates should be considered idiots until proven otherwise. That is a safe bet to place in Las Vegas. Nonetheless, there are numerous exceptions—and Michael Oren is one of them. I own and have read both of his books. He is most assuredly a top notch and insightful scholar.
Ambassador Oren needs to cease trusting the judgment of Americans deeply committed to the Democratic Party. These people are not consciously lying to him. No, they have simply invested heavily in other agendas. It behooves them to therefore pretend Obama’s policies are not dangerous to Israel. I am thinking particularly of the delusional Marty Peretz and Alan Dershowitz. At the end of the day, they will find any bizarre excuse to continue supporting the Democrats.
Question for Oren: Israel deliberately lost two wars, the 2006 Lebanon war and the Gaza incursion – how is it possible that Israel deliberately tolerates two-times deliberate war losers Barak and Peres as leaders of the country? Will they be held responsible for the inevitable loss of Israel’s beautiful young people in the army which will result as a direct result of Barak and Peres allowing Hizbollah to strenghten?
Sad to say, there isn’t a question you could ask that he could answer honestly. All you’ll hear from Mr Oren is diplomatic double-talk as he avoids answering serious questions. Diplomats, politicians, & lawyers are absolutely the LAST people to ask & expect a direct & honest answer.
i don’t think Israel is going to have any viable choice but to take military action to stop Iran from getting the bomb (see blog linked to my name), but i sure hope i’m wrong.
“All you’ll hear from Mr Oren is diplomatic double-talk”
You are far too pessimistic. Michael Oren is admittedly not going to insult the Obama administration. However, he knows how to subtly get his point across. One is expected to read between the lines. It may also behoove Roger L. Simon to focus on Israel’s relationship with those Americans associated the Democratic Party. Do they have their heads on straight—or are these individuals living in a fantasy world? As a practical manner, are the Democrats inadvertent enemies of Israel? Good intentions are fine and dandy, but results are of much greater importance.
Roger, would you ask the following question, if for no other reason, that it takes root and sprouts later: Would the current Israeli government, with sufficient backing from its friends, implement, and if necessary, complete, the plans Natan Sharansky drew up, for an interim Palestinian Authority.
He mentioned the plans in “The Case for Democracy”, and I have yet to receive an answer from him, for he is the Chairman of the Jewish Agency for Israel.
Thank you.
For the sake of reference, I submit this by Conrad Black: http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fullcomment/archive/2010/02/06/conrad-black-a-plan-for-haiti.aspx
I would ask: mr. oren, on what basis could there possibly be any rapprochment while thugs like hamas and huzbullah are operating? and, given the syrian connection to these thugs as well as iran, why do you think obama is sending an american envoy to syria now, for the first time (instead of the usual low level diplomat)? further, why would anyone talk to assad, a noted dirtbag?
“…further, why would anyone talk to assad, a noted dirtbag?”
Dirt bag? Assad is a victim of Western imperialism. America merely needs to beg forgiveness for its past sins. And once that occurs—everything will be hunky-dory. Tears will start flowing from Assad’s eyes and he will immediately desire to sing Kumbaya with both the United States and Israel. You are a lady of little faith. It is obviously necessary for you to visit your local Democratic Party or “moderate” Republican official. They will be glad to straighten you out.
I’d really like you to interview FM Avigdor Lieberman. Not only would he probably be blunter, but being a refugee from the FSU, he probably would also have some choice things to say about Socialism and the left.
The Israelis have already signalled to the Syrian Regime that they would be a prime target if anything untoward were to happen. You can check Michael Totten’s site for the details.
Regarding the 2006 Lebanon conflict, Israel “lost” because the press reported it that way. The Israeli Air Force thought they had things in hand. They didn’t. The cost was high, but the Israelis got what they wanted. They then spent the next couple of years re-working their military. The Gaza operation was a sharp success, but was fought against the closk, as they had to finish before Obama was inducted.
I honetsly believe that the bulk of the Arab nations will quietly back Israel if they go after Iran. I can offer my $0.02 as to why if anyone’s interested.
No joke or disrespect intended.
A question for the Iranian people:
If not now, when ?
If not you, who ?
As Saddam Hussein discovered, even the
appearance of attempting to acquire
weapons of mass destruction may void
one’s lifetime guarantee.
I would like to know from Mr. Oren whether Israel is prepared to act unilaterally vs. Iran, despite U.S. pressures to delay indefinitely. Thanks.
Hey Mike, what about this?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JWeWc_snPWo
Could Fox News be telling a fib?
Ask Oren if he is going to write a history of the year ahead entitled, “Six Minutes of War: 2010 and the Destruction of the Modern Middle East.” It’s exactly that serious.
How about even going back to the 60′s for nuclear war jokes! I became friendly with Ron Cobb in the 60′s and made a mistake and told him how funny his editorial cartoons were in the old LA Free Press before it became a soft corn porn weekly. He felt that they were supposed to be thought provoking!
http://www.fastbooks.com.au/gif/ManwithTV.gif
Few might agree with me from the secular side, but I believe you are going to find the Iraqi War was fought for far more than WMD, or removing Saddam, or if you’re of the “progressive” loon persuasion, blood for oil.
There was a very specific and divinely inspired purpose for American intervention in Iraq, for reasons only God knows. But Iraq will play a large part in both future Israeli and American dealings with Iran.
Is Obama helping with covert actions against Iran?
If, as seems likely, a revolution in Iran defunds Hezbollah, and Hamas. How much of their funding will be lost? And would this reduce the threat on Israel sufficiently to reboot the peace process?
Yes I have a question. After Iran detonates it’s nuclear weapon over Tel Aviv or some other Israeli city, will the government of Israel actively assist those of us in other countries, who refuse to accept the destruction of Israel, travel to Israel to help defend against the Arab armies that will be sure to invade.
How about this:
Mr. Ambassador, would Israel accept a nuclear-armed Iran?
Queries for the Ambassador:
1. Sir, is the average Israeli citizen as ignorant as the average American citizen of what Ruhollah Komeini actually wrote in his philosophy of the ‘learned jurisprudent’?
2. Does anyone in the Israeli government know if either Mr. Obama or Mrs. Clinton have ever read all of the Ayatollah Khomeini’s written works?
3. Is page 510 of Hitler’s ‘Mein Kampf’ pertinent to understanding jihadism’s anti-Israel and anti-American positions?
4. In your opinion, what statesman of today can match Churchill’s warnings about absolutist puritans in a ‘war ideology’?
5. Is early 20C Italian and German history being repeated in the early 21C Iran?
6. The form of governance in Iran today is millennialist, revivalist, absolutist, determinist, adopted a form of stasis as idealism, and has ‘purity’ as the moral glue which binds the society together, all this in an ‘honor/shame’ sociology, the sociology of a warrior code. The last such form of governance is called, ‘Fascism.’ What are his opinions?
7. If Hitler had nuclear arms, would his ideo/theology of Nazism resulted in using them at the London blitz, the beaches of Normandy, the evacuation of Dunkirk, the retreat from Paris, or at the battle of Stalingrad?
8. When does blunt talk replace diplomatic niceties? Before, or after, an incineration?
Two final queries for the Ambassador:
9. Does Hannah Arendt’s characterization of “clerico-fascism” in Petain’s efforts in Vichy France during WWII easily and accurately describe “theofascism” in today’s Iran? Are they accurate descriptions of the same phenomenon?
10. Will Israel relocate to North America to avoid the consequences of theofascism in Iran?
When will the penny drop/the balloon go up wrt Iran? Russia’s involvement with Iran? China’s strategic needs within Southwest Asia and The middle East?
How does the Yemen – Saudi situation impact Israel’s current policies? How does that impact the Iran-Israel policy conflict?
“Mr. Ambassador: Israel once conveyed a “Don’t mess with us” message. But its recurrent “We want peace – We need peace” message makes Israel sound like a supplicant. Why does it not, instead, remind the world that Israel has historic and legal rights too? After all, rights and interests not asserted and defended will soon enough be lost.”
The other day I posted this at Belmont Club –
~ It has long been my contention that the Left not only expects Israel to destroy the Iranian nuclear capability but counts on it – it is as cynical and cowardly a position as can be imagined but I have heard many a self-styled ‘anti-Zionist’ proclaim (without a trace of irony) that any concern about Iranian nukes is merely a stalking horse for right-wing extremism because “the Israelis would never let it happen” ~
I wonder if the Israeli ambassador has ever encountered this view before and if so, what is his reaction. If I remember correctly, Carolyn Glick wrote something addressing this attitude last year. Also, does the Israeli government believe the current administration considers them an ally and has their back, if you follow me?
Please ask him
1. if he thinks its possible that the Iranian people will overthrow the Regime, and if they did, does he have an opinion about whether the new Regime would give up it’s Nuclear war-mongering ambitions and support of terrorism?
1a. Does he think it’s possible — in any realistic way — to have hope for there to be a secular and peaceful Iran?
2. what effect on terrorist organizations it would have if the Iranian Regime were to be demolished and unable to provide support to –
Hezbollah in Lebanon and around the world, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, etc., those that are still active in Iraq, and those that are attacking U.S. troops in Afghanistan?
Is Al Queda being assisted by Iran?
Wouldn’t the strength and effectiveness of these groups be substantially diminished — or even ended — without Iranian support?
3. If the Iranian Islamic Republic were to suffer a great blow that would demolish their power — wouldn’t that have a huge discouraging effect on the sense of coming
empowerment and boldness now existing in the world Islamist movement?
4. what are the 2 or 3 most important things he would like the American people to be aware of regarding Israel’s situation?
If I recall Tim, Israel is the one for peace not palestine or hamas.Israel forced there own people out of the Gaza strip for peace with the south and what did Hamas do after that?Set up rockets and deliberatly shot them toward any israely they could kill,not the military,citizens.They will never stop till Israel is gone which will never happen.That clearly shows who wants peace.And by the way this is how you spell muslim not moslem dummy
Not to ask Mr. Oren, as it isn’t something he should discuss …
but it seems that the U.S. is in denial — at least publicly, that China’s interests in Iran play a huge role in what is going on. They are essentially allied with Iran.
For an impetus for Israel to strike first –
Does Iran feel especially empowered to strike Israel first — (aside from “other” reasons) — because should — as Hillary once said — the U.S. retaliate — China would stand seriously in the way of that. (This is aside from Obama’s treachery.)
At some point the USA must take responsibility for its role in overthrowing the Iranian government in 1953 and installing Reza Pahlavi. Everything occurring today is a direct result of what the US govt and Britain did in 1953 to the Iranian People.
I would ask the ambassador if the US plans on righting this wrong by finally assisting the PEOPLE of Iran and supporting its budding movement to secure freedom and some semblance of democracy as they had prior to 1953.
Mr Oren, when you retire from your diplomatic post, do you plan to write a tell-all book honestly calling the anti-Semitic Obama administration anti-Semitic or will you still diplomatically refuse to call a spade a spade?
Don’t you think an alliance with an anti-Semitic US administration that is bumbling, incompetent and clueless, ultimatley harmful to Israel? Shouldn’t we free ourselves from the stranglehold of the US grip which is suffocating us, and pretends itself a hand of friendship, whatever the costs? The costs of their backstabbing is far greater.
Mr Oren, will you acknowledge that American Jews are, with notable exceptions, in the main a disgrace considering their support for a political party increasingly falling prey to fashionable anti-Semitism? Do you have nothing but contempt for them in the main, and if not why not?
I usually do not watch PJTV as reading is so much faster than listening.
However, this one I’ll watch,
taking into account that this type of interview would be a great occasion for Oren to drop some remark impossible to say in more official TV interview. I also attended his lecture, and remember it to be great.
I do not think that he will say much more (or less) than he intends to say, as he is in official position. It would be interesting to hear if it is at all possible to take out Iranian nuclear program with airstrike from military point of view (I think it is not).
Question:
Americans by and large, especially including the American President, do not seem to recognize the nihilistic “end of days” foundation of Iran’s desire for nuclear weapons.
Americans don’t understand – or don’t WANT to understand – that according to Shia Islam, a world catastrophe (such as a nuclear war) will bring the arrival of the Mahdi, who will then convert the remaining survivors to Islam and thus bring about world peace.
Do most Israelis understand this? Do THEY recognize the urgency of destroying the Iranian nuclear project even though Americans – especially liberals – don’t?
1) Is Israel prepared to go it alone, even if that means potential combat with the US forces recently dispatched to the scene?
2) Does Israel believe the “anti-missile” forces were really sent to defend the regime against Iran, or to bolster US anti-aircraft capability to stop an Israeli strike?
3) Israel has leaked that it may use, and need to use, tactical nuclear weapons to stop the Iranian program. Comments?
err.. should have edited
“to defend the region against Iran”
an interesting point was brought up by Barry Rubin about how economic factors will not determine Iran’s actions or anyone else’s actions in the region. If anything one of Iran’s big supporters (Russia) is bilking Iran out of gas in the Caspian Sea in exchange for toleration of Iran’s ambitions. There is nothing logical about Iran’s actions. Why are we so vain as to pretend the regime of Mullahs reflects our own values of self benefit?
Arabs and Persians don’t like each other very much. The Arabs (Saudia Arabia) may be willing to look the other way if Israel were to fly thru its airspace.
Then again, Israel does have submarines … a few guided missiles launched from them might do the trick as well.
Here’s a question: is it really wise for Israel to speculate publicly about what it might or might not do to counter the threat from Iran’s ruling clique?
Many of questions mentioned here will obviously not be answered by anything other than pablum.
My realistic question (mentioned here twice) would be:
“Mr Oren, could you provide us with your analysis of what the results of a hypothetical loss of Iranian funding to Hezbollah, Hamas et al would be, in the short term and longer?”
(Of course, you have to be prepared to follow up if he opts for the facile “What a wonderful world it would be.”)
Mike (#38):
Here’s an answer: I’m not sure it would be wise for me to speculate on the wisdom of such a policy.
Mr. Simon,
Here’s a preamble and question:
Since the Second Temple era, Israel has been heavily influenced by Diaspora writers and even lead by Diaspora Jewry. By contrast, the present situation is one in which Israel is largely on it’s own. Israel is also lead today by a generation of leaders born in the Land. Israel’s greatest strength has been shown to exist under a condition of greater Liberty: Israelis today are amongst the most economically free and politically liberated in the world. Prime Minister Netanyahu is even referred to as the de facto Leader of the Free World.
Question: Can the roles be reversed? For example, what role will Israel play in answering Norman Podhoretz’ question: Why are Jews so often “liberals”? Is it time for Israel to influence the most powerful Diaspora population in history and lead America’s liberal Jewry out of their statist funk?
Many thanks.
What force mix would the US need to keep in Iraq to discourge the Iran from the open violent suppression of its own people?
Can Obama do anything to redeem his reputation after all of his submission before some of the world’s dictators? Can Hillary?
here is a question for Mr. Oren:
when would the Istraelis stop murdering the Palastinians