Late Friday night Pajamas Media posted a poll taken for PJM by CrossTarget in the Brown-Coakley race to fill the Massachusetts Senate seat of the late Edward Kennedy. The poll created some controversy because it was an outlier, the only public poll so far to show Brown ahead by double digits- 15%. It was even questioned on this site by the highly-respected polling expert Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report. (Some private polling by the candidate evidently has had similar results, at least placing the lead in double-digits.)
Polls are, of course, a snapshot in time. Much has happened… and is happening… in the fast-moving Massachusetts race over the weekend with the likes of Barack Obama and Bill Clinton coming to the state to support the campaign of Democrat Martha Coakley. Will this triage be successful or will it backfire? We don’t know.
So Pajamas Media has commissioned another poll from CrossTarget to be taken late today using the exact same methods (IVR) as the first. The results of this poll will appear on this site at midnight, or as close to that as possible. That’s midnight Pacific Time, please note.
We also note we have received some criticism for omitting Joseph Kennedy, the Libertarian candidate, from the poll. It was the determination of CrossTarget that Kennedy was polling so low it would be a distraction. Several other polls have made the same decision. Complete listings of the current polls are here and here.
I’m sure THIS one will be much better. You know, scientific in that sciencey way, with math and numbers and all that messy margin of error stuff taken into account. Sample doohickeymabobs all lined up proper like. Really look forward to the results
Wait! Wait! You really want to appear prescient? You really want to wind up the base? Forget the poll thing, it’s just to lame on it face (a PJM poll? Seriously? Why not poll white fundamentalist gun owners on their fourth marriage, they’ll post some big numbers for ya.) So forget the poll and plant your feet and call the election – who wins and by how much?
If Brown wins you can claim victory. If Brown loses you can claim victory. It’s Rupert’s wish that you do this. It’s Roger’s suggestion that you do this. Sarah says it’s god’s plan that you do this.
Do this.
Wow. You would think the article makes it pretty clear that the poll is commissioned and will use a well-defined method. I guess some posters just cannot be bothered to read the article before ‘reacting.’
3. Steve:
I read it. My question to you is, do you believe it?
skeeziks, to be clear, I don’t TRUST any polls. They are, as I wrote, and I am sure you noted, “a snapshot in time.” If you wish to continue posting here, you are welcome. But please refrain from meaningless and self-destructive ad hominem attacks. In case you’re interested (I assume you haven’t read my recent book), I am an agnostic and not particularly a supporter of Sarah Palin. I also happen to support gay marriage (unlike the President), so I am not exactly what you apparently believe. But as I said, you are welcome to post on my blog. Just do so with knowledge and respect.
Oh my…if Coakley got the Red Socks stuff wrong how good can she possibly be…hhhmmmm
Sorry, but any poll that doesn’t present all the candidates that will appear on the ballot isn’t worth much because it doesn’t represent the choices people will have when they vote. The ballot is the true poll, never mind what pollsters say about “oh, so-and-so is just a distraction from my other two favorite candidates”. Bullshit. Polls should represent the ballot because those are the actual choices that people will have.
I feel Coakley can eek out a win if she wears a Ted Kennedy mask, bourbon in hand and sings more Spanish songs.
I can’t believe Coakley is a competitive farce (err. I meant ‘force’) in this election.
For being Mass AG, I really anticipated more brain matter to find its way to the public. Oh well, to hell with optimism, right?
Scott Brown is America’s Tiananmen Square ‘Tank Man!’
I don’t live in MA, but I sure wish I could vote for Brown!!! It’s time for us, the people, to take back control of our Beautiful Country!
Speaking of Governor Sarah Palin: I will raise at minimum $2 million USD if the governor should decide to run for the presidency.
I quote: “Welcome Back, Dad
I’ve been trying to convince my fellow conservatives that they have been wasting their time in a fruitless quest for a new Ronald Reagan to emerge and lead our party and our nation. I insisted that we’d never see his like again because he was one of a kind.
I was wrong!
Wednesday night I watched the Republican National Convention on television and there, before my very eyes, I saw my Dad reborn; only this time he’s a she. And what a she! This was Ronald Reagan at his best — the same Ronald Reagan who made the address known now solely as “The Speech,” which during the Goldwater campaign set the tone and the agenda for the rebirth of the traditional conservative movement that later sent him to the White House for eight years and revived the moribund GOP. Welcome back, Dad, even if you’re wearing a dress and bearing children this time around.”
~Michael Reagan, talk show host and son of President Ronald Reagan
The New York Times has lied to you more times than Pajamas Media, skeeziks.
If a poll is conducted properly, that is, with unbiased questions and a sufficiently large random sample, it doesn’t matter who commissioned it.
Skeeziks is Tokyo Rose. His job is not to say anything that has intellectual heft, his job is to try and demoralize the opposition. He’ll be hiding under a chair in Hiroshima on Tuesday.
The intrade.com market tightened up today. Coakley up 2.5, Brown down 2.5. This is a very very tight race.
For the record, I am a White Gun clinging owner on his first marriage. But I like intrade because you have to put your money where your mouth is.
As much as I support Brown, I think omitting Kennedy from the poll is a mistake if he is going to be on the ballot. Yes, he is certainly a “distraction”, as third party candidates often are. But if he’s on the ballot, and the purpose of the poll is to predict the outcome of the race, I do not understand the rationale behind leaving him out of the poll.
And skeeziks, I don’t think there are many fundamentalists on their fourth marriage anywhere, much less reading this blog.
What makes this column the most responsible on PJM is that Roger won’t tolerate ad hom attacks.
Last time I checked, Brown was up to 56 on Intrade.
I have become mesmerized by the trainwreck that is the Coakley campaign. I thought Biden was the all-time winner of the Stupid Gaffe award, but Coakley is giving him a run for his money. Running ads misspelling the name of her state, using the Twin Towers to illustrate “Republican greed,” calling Schilling a Yankees fan, scorning Brown for standing in the cold shaking hands with the masses at Fenway, attempting to make an issue of the fact that he *gasp* owns a time-share, saying Catholics shouldn’t work in ER’s – God, this this arrogant buffoon really needs to put a sock in it – preferably Schilling’s bloody one.
I keep picturing a staffer at the Onion reading the latest Coakley idiocy and pounding his head on his desk in frustration, crying to his boss, “How can I top her? What I think up is nothing compared to what she really says!”
And the libs call Palin dumb?
If Coakley manages to win, all it will prove is that MA voters are willing to send a woman with the IQ of a potted plant to the Senate if she has a D after her name.
Coakley has proved, again and again, that she is actually the idiot the Left pretends Sarah Palin is.
There are reports that bad weather will hit Massachusetts on Election Day. That can only be good news for Scott Brown. I don’t think Martha Coakley’s lukewarm voters will make the extra effort.
The economy will start improving if Brown wins. Investors and entrepreneurs will fear Obama less. To be blunt, Americans do better if the president does not.
18. Donna V:If Coakley manages to win, all it will prove is that MA voters are willing to send a woman with the IQ of a potted plant to the Senate if she has a D after her name.
Or voters from MassachusettEs have the IQ of a potted plant.
We view polls as quasi-useful indicators only. Statistical validity, with its confidence-limits and margins-of-error, lends an objective, quantitative veneer to inherently qualitative, subjective responses subject to intractably contingent swings.
Pollsters in their cups admit that even “likely voters” pay little attention to candidates or issues before the last few days of a campaign. Thereafter, constituents make “analog vs. digital” decisions only 72 – 48 hours before election day, if not literally at the last minute. Strong partisans merely select from pre-judged rosters or stay home.
Marginal races are thus notorious for random outcomes, barring ACORN/SEIU-type ballot fraud as typically occurs in big-city venues (Boston, Chicago, New York exemplify the rot). But at watershed moments, trends are all-important– as polls swing wildly, “thrust” determines even determinedly skewed outcomes. Despite pollsters’ hocus-pocus, we’ve heard practitioners of the art use a 50% rule-of-thumb: Project 2 – 3 weeks’ trends to Election Day, then discount by half, plugging in a 3.5 – 5.0% corruption factor as circumstances warrant. On this basis, a candidate remaining above a discounted 50% will likely come out ahead.
Of course, by the time this calculation becomes meaningful the contest will be practically over.
But granting the recent PJM poll its elevated 15% as an end-result, .50 x .15 – .05 = .075 – .05 = a 2.5% margin of victory for Scott Brown on Tuesday, even granted major corruption on all fronts. Massachusetts’ incumbent Frank Hagues, Boss Tweeds, will have to produce boxcar loads of phony ballots to pull this one off.
#18 Donna V.
You are offending all my potted plants.
The pro-communist voters are more at a mineral level. Inorganic matter etched with marxist acid.
They have elected a muslim radical to the presidency (who has built an administration of idiots and communists)…and they don’t even understand what they have done.
#2:
Baghdad Bob, is that you?
Are you still standing by your “triple guarantee” that there are no American soldiers in Baghdad?
I think what has skeeziks, like most Dems, so upset is that Martha was supposed to be able to just coast into the Senate seat without even needing to campaign simply because she has a (-D) following her name, and it angers all the Dems that the voters are too stupid to realize this.
I passed through Newburyport, MA this morning, perhaps the most liberal town I know in the area (where there were huge signs for Obama everywhere you looked just over a year ago) and was surprised (and pleased) to find a BIG gathering in support of Scott Brown right in the town square across the street from Starbucks.
The times, they are a changing!
I would also like to add, Joe Kennedy being on the ballot is likely to be as much a problem for Martha as he is for Scott. How many typical MA Dem voters are going to walk into the booth on Tuesday morning, see the name ‘Kennedy’ on the ballot, and make their vote on that simple basis instead of for the actual Dem candidate just because they’re so used to voting for Kenney, any Kenney, for so long?
15. Jeff Carter. I wonder if intrade.com is being gamed by some Dem operatives. It would be a cheap way to create the appearance of momentum.
My apologies on the my last post. My ‘d’ button for some reason stuck and I did not notice it until after I pressed ‘submit’
It should have read “…vote for Kennedy, any Kennedy…”
Yeah, and you Republicans are willing to send a woman with the IQ of a potted plant to the Presidency if she has an R after her name.
I’m not following this race too closely, but it does seem like Coakley has underestimated her opposition. Instead of letting him creep up on her, she should have been defending her positions and attacking his.
If she loses it’s not b/c her ideals are wrong and his are right. It will be b/c her campaign was foolish and tone-deaf and one of the worst run I’ve seen since the Palin/McCain debacle.
BrianH #19:
Yes, and it occurred to me as a result of a comment by another poster is that Coakley is in essence the Anti-Sara Palin.
Think about it: Everything that Sara is, Coakley is the exact opposite.
This is from the National Review:
From a Friend at the Brown Rally in Worcester [Kathryn Jean Lopez]
“It’s an absolute mob scene. The police have closed off the streets. It’s mind blowing. The hall is already full, and it holds 3,000 people. There may be another 1,000 people outside.”
I can confirm this first hand.
I got a call from Brown campaign today asking me to come to this. I live 15 mins from the venue and figured I get there a half hour or so early. I got turned away by the police downtown Worcester was absolutely mobbed!!! I couldn’t find a place to park within walking distance.
PS OT the Mechanics Hall where the rally was held is one of the best halls for classical music in the country. It rivals Boston’s Symphony Hall. Been to many concerts at both, really great place.
With all due respect, Jeremy N., enough of the bourgeois “liberalist” horse-hockey. If you look above, this is not a pro-Palin site by any stretch. But I would point out to you that liberal heroes Gore and Kerry – though the most privileged of privileged sons – were dreadful students (I mean seriously dreadful… like Ds) in the Ivy League, worse even than George W. Bush, who wasn’t much. If you are worried about IQs, I would suggest you look elsewhere. American politics (on either side) is not inhabited by Einsteins. Forget about the best and brightest. What we have is the most ambitious and narcissistic – and that includes the current inhabitant of the White House. And if you don’t think the election in MA is to some extent a referendum on him, you’ve got your head in the sand deeper than the longest necked ostrich.
I will faithfully wait until 2 a.m. CST, Roger.
To Jeremy N at #30;
What woman with an IQ of a potted plant were we Republicans willing to send to the presidency? The only one I can think of was Hillary, and I hate to break this to you, but she was a Dem.
I would suggest you look elsewhere. American politics (on either side) is not inhabited Einsteins. Forget about the best and brightest. What we have is the most ambitious and narcissistic – and then includes the current inhabitant of the White House. And if you don’t think the election in MA is to some extent a referendum on him, you’ve got your head in the sand deeper than the longest necked ostrich.”
way to go roger!
I predict a fairly substantive margin for brown purely based on momentum and enthusiasm.
BTW while I have never placed a bet on intrade yet, i think for an astute political observer there is easy money to be made there… it tends to be a lagging not a leading indicator
As a rule, I look at polls like I view the weather, with a grain of salt. Polls are like having an interesting painting on the wall, something to talk about. I take my hat off to the right wing media for making this senate race all about the political mood of the entire country. It was quite a gamble on their part. After all, great risk can reap great rewards. And…the good news is that on Tuesday there will be another poll in Mass…now we all know that one will be sure to generate some discussion. Democracy can be a good thing eh? Hail to the victor !
Just watching the One at Boston and laying the biggest egg he has ever laid. The man is beside himself that the crowd is ignoring him and getting into chants that he can’t control. His speech is amateurish and high school. He didn’t even remember what state Kerry was from. He went down several speech roads that led to dead ends and in one he was demonizing Brown because Brown was supposedly demonizing Coakley. He brought up bad e-mails that Brown supposedly sent out when in reality it was Coakley that sent out all of the distasteful flyers. He was unprepared and the audience did not receive him that well. This was a major screw up and he was totally unprepared.
Jeremy N @ 30:
Excuse me, Jeremy, but I think most people with more than 2 functioning brain cells would realize the difference between the Presidency and the Vice-Presidency.
The GOP hasn’t had a female candidate for the Presidency in this generation, if ever. They did, however, have a female candidate for the Vice-Presidency recently.
Now, who’s the one with the IQ of a potted plant?
This situation is quite frankly just another punch to the Democrat party. I believe my fellow countrymen are saying you arrogant out of touch SOBees try this one. How tin an ear the Democrat party has. My GOPs folks should note well this situation, you also are not trusted. If I were a betting man I would say a “Tea Party” that rose in 2010 would only need 15 to 20 seats in the house-not even one senate seat to basically bring this entire mess to a halt. I Think I’ll go have some tea now before I fly. Check “6″ – Martha you do not need to bother with that!
Jeff, you do realize that all a Democrat fat cat like George Soros has to do to skew Intrade results is make a very larger single buy for Coakley. It would have the same result as a mass media buy and would avoid all Campaign Finance Laws the Dems all claim love so much. Tightening up on Intrade is irrelevant unless it is sustained over time
This was a major screw up and he was totally unprepared.
But why should the Lightworker have to prepare? His saintly presence alone should be enough to inspire the masses to vote D.
Really, I can’t figure this WH out. After the failed Olympics bid, after Deeds and Corzine, they still cling to the idea that bambi is some sort of miracle worker who only has to read a few lines off the teleprompter and all will be well.
I made the mistake of reading some Daily Kos threads last night (talk about endangering your IQ). Oh, they are shaking in their Birkenstocks over this election, but many of them assume that Big Daddy Obama will ride into town and all will be set right (or rather, left).
If Brown pulls it off, I can’t wait to read what they have to say about the benighted, Sox-loving mackeral snappers of MA on Wednesday.
This should not even be close and the Dems are losing. If Brown wins–I’ll come right out and say it–the Obama presidency will have effectively ended even before the mid-term elections. If Coakley manages to pull off a miracle, she still have done permanent damage to the congressional Dems and revealed them as paper tigers when it comes to their electoral prospects. This is a win-win without a doubt but should come as a shock to no one who can read a poll.
You know, what continues to fascinate me, seriously fascinate me as a student of humanity, is how apparently literate, articulate, educated people like Jeremy N manage to maintain the notion that Bush, and now Palin, can be so stupid, while at the same time getting their heads handed to them. Bush beat Ann Richards like 4 year old with a toy drum, won two elections for President, got his way all the way through on Iraq. Palin was the one ray of hope for McCain, and has repeatedly shaped the conversation against Obama with just her apparently natural written eloquence.
So here’s my question: how dumb do you have to be if you keep getting beaten by people with the “IQ of a potted plant”?
Conservativism stands here! The left/liberal bullhs*t stops here! Go out an win one for the Gipper!
Obama rolls the dice on a trip up to Boston to rescue his agenda…which is now endangered in Massachusetts, of all places, makes a terrible stump speech and gets booed and heckled.
Meanwhile, in Haiti…
The Instaman reports that Brown’s rally in Worchester was packed.
Meanwhile, reportedly, Coakley can’t fill a hall. “Martha Coakley and Barack Obama held a rally today in Boston. They couldn’t fill the hall. . . . It holds 3,000 and frankly only 2,000 to 2,500 showed up.”
Gee, skeeziks, now who would have guessed the Bay State is full of bitter, gun-clinging fundies on their 4th marriages? Just think, skeeziks, if they’re in Massachusettes, they are (strike up ominous music)everywhere.
As the mad scientist on SCTV used to say “It’s so skeeeeeery!”
For you, anyway. Me, I’m pretty cool with it.
None of the polls matter in the least. This election will be decided by ACORN.
So, have the Dems injected race into this race yet? I’m just waiting for Chris Mathews to say something like “Have you noticed that Brown’s supporters are mostly white? What’s up with that?”
never underestimate the state that sent Kennedy, Kerry and Frank to Congress time after time after time. but there is hope!
I truly hope that Brown wins on Tuesday. But make no mistake; he has already altered the conversation in Washington. The mere fact that this has become a competitive race is a clear warning to all incumbents in purple states.
Obama-Care and Cap and Tax are now on life support.
Where is Teddy Kennedy when we need him? But, then, he never had to run a campaign either. Come on Teddy, let us hear from you… gurgle, gurgle, burp, hiccup… vote for Maa-thaa, hiccup, burp, Cokely (can I have rum with that cokely?)
re: #47
Donna, see my #32 I was in Worcester today trying to attend the rally the center was mobbed and the police were turning people away because the Hall was full (been there many times and it holds 3000 +).
Couldn’t count the people outside could easily have been 1000, I’ll go with a SH**LOAD for now.
Amazing. This is truest bluest Massachusetts here. If Zero can’t carry here his policies are seen for the corporatist (fascist) crap they are. See Mussolini.
None of the polls matter in the least. This election will be decided by ACORN.
Gee, that’s a helpful statement. Why didn’t Corzine win in NJ then? I’m sure there were more than a few ACORN boots on the ground in the Garden State.
I am not unmindful of the serious dangers posed by election fraud. However, I’m a bit sick of the “It’s all rigged, nobody can do anything, we’re screwed” defeatist mentality I’m seeing on conservative blogs. Yeah, I am starting to wonder if some of them aren’t posted by Dems who want us to give up the fight.
You can give up and sit in the corner and suck your thumb or you can fight and rally the troops like Alan C. (thanks for that great news, Alan!) and all those people donating and putting up yard signs and getting out there in the cold to cheer Brown on.
If we behave like it’s all a done deal and hopeless, it will be.
Right you are, Donna V. I’ve said it before: “Never give in. Never give in. Never, never, never, never — in nothing, great or small, large or petty — never give in, except to convictions of honour and good sense. Never yield to force. Never yield to the apparently overwhelming might of the enemy.”
OK, not to be a thread hog, but I just found this quote over at the Corner and thought Roger would appreciate it. John Ratzenberger’s remarks at a Brown rally:
This isn’t the Democratic party of our fathers and grandfathers. This is the party of Woodstock hippies. I was at Woodstock — I built the stage. And when everything fell apart, and people were fighting for peanut-butter sandwiches, it was the National Guard who came in and saved the same people who were protesting them. So when Hillary Clinton a few years ago wanted to build a Woodstock memorial, I said it should be a statue of a National Guardsman feeding a crying hippie.”
Is it too late for Coakley to drown someone in a car? She could still pull this thing out.
Course, her nickname would then be “Croakley” but if she loses she’ll get that label anyway.
55. Donna V. wrote (in response to a previous poster):
“None of the polls matter in the least. This election will be decided by ACORN.”
Gee, that’s a helpful statement. Why didn’t Corzine win in NJ then? I’m sure there were more than a few ACORN boots on the ground in the Garden State.
That’s why we must make sure Scott wins by such a large amount, that no cheating ACORN, SEIU, or the Dems try to pull off has any hope of working.
Donna 42 “..can’t wait to see how the Ds treat the sox fan snappers on wednesday..” The nets/Ds will treat them as the runaway slaves from the D plantation that Sox fans are. The Ds will insist their property rights be upheld by Holder and Jackboot Janet and that our underground internet railrod be shut down. The people of Boston are once again showing us what democracy is.
@28, I do realize the market can be manipulated. Especially a non-liquid market like an Intrade market. The more you get the word out, the less it is vulnerable to manipulation. Right now, 554CST PM, Brown is up pretty good on Intrade.
I suspect earlier in the day, sentiment was with Coakley since Obama came. His speech was simply a recycled speech from the stump a la August of 2008. He has a record now and can’t hide behind rhetoric. So, the Intrade market reversed.
It will be interesting. Go Scott Brown. We are pulling for you.
I blog at http://pointsandfigures.wordpress.com
The Dems will win this one, Rush, Sean and stupid Glen Beck will have to try again…Go Dems…I am with you.
Massachusetts DEMOCRAT voters are the ones sending the message to what most clear thinking folks see as an almost totally out of touch Democrat party. But before my fellow GOP folks start celebrating (even f Brown loses look at the message) think about the line from “Patton”, the one that ends with “All glory is fleeting.” GOP candidates had better come up with their own version of the 94 contract-no taxes, stay the hell out of my medical care, out of my bedroom and dam it get out of my kitchen while your at it. leave me to my fats if I want them! Because if I were a betting man I bet the “Tea Party” can bring all these folks to ground with just 15 to 20 seats in the House!, you doesn’t even have to have one senate seat. 15 to 20
Tea Party representatives will drive the Arrogance gene right out of both parties-at least for awhile. Couldn’t happen soon enough for me
Check “6″
Franken from Minnesota was decided by ACORN, we’ll see about Coakley
This was a Robocall poll. Who did they call? How many didn’t respond? The real poll will be on Tuesday.
That’s why we must make sure Scott wins by such a large amount, that no cheating ACORN, SEIU, or the Dems try to pull off has any hope of working.
Quite right, Peter. Brown and his volunteers has to keep on campaigning like he’s 10 points behind. I’m feeling very good about this, but we can’t be complacent either.
Of course, the comments of trolls like Roy (62) just serve to remind us conservatives what we’re up against. The trolls think they demoralize us – on the contrary, they make us even more determined. They’re too dumb to realize their silly jeers hurt their side.
Unless they’re all secretly working for – Rove.
As a MA resident, i’ve got my fingers, eyes, toes and short-hairs crossed!
I’m not offended by the comments disparaging MA voters, I’ll take them as they come and can’t do anything but say “Yeah, we are overwhelmed w/ morons here”, but I think that w/ this being so close, we may be able to hold our collective heads a little higher (mine’s always held high, but it’s looking to TX!) and save the nation from this crap.
Donna, sorry to sound defeatist, but I am anticipating a tight race, litigated to death, dragged out and eventually stolen. I didn’t catch if you live here, but I think others can see it happening, too! MA is second to none re: union cronyism and corruption. Chicago is a close second from what I’ve seen in my time.
And don’t worry about me and the inclement weather. I’ll strap on snow-shoes or iceskates, whichever is required.
30. Jeremy N:
Yeah, and you Republicans are willing to send a woman with the IQ of a potted plant to the Presidency if she has an R after her name.
1) As others have pointed out, in 2008 the Republicans had a Vice Presidential candidate, not a Presidential candidate who was a woman. I will assume that you are talking about Sarah Palin, the Republican Vice Presidential candidate.
2)Sarah Palin is best compared with Joe Biden. Why is it that Vice President Joe Biden has the nickname of “Slow Joe?” Is he a closet Republican?
Brown and Coakley are at 65 and 35 respectively on intrade.com. Is it possible the race just went from being close to being a blowout?
Alan C #32: Thanks for your comment. I’m in Colorado but am following the MA senate race closer than ANY political race in the last 50 years. Its national implications are huge: it’s us (those who love the America we grew up in and love)versus them (radicals from the 60′s now occupying our county’s seats of political power). Please MA: Vote Brown and stop the madness that is Obama.
I am willing to bet a buck that the new poll will show a similar margin. The Friday poll was taken from LIKELY VOTERS. Most Dems voters are poor and ignorant and they don’t vote in large numbers in off-year or special elections, so the percentages of Dems is not that far off as I see it. This one could be an exception since so much media has surrounded it, but I doubt it. Brown will win by at least a 6% margin. Just my opinion, of course.
Polls are useful ‘indicators’ of trend-lines and trend-lines are VERY important. Much more important than the actual snapshots themselves.
But a wise person does not count on polls unless the margins are way outside the MOE. They can be ‘right’ and still give the ‘wrong’ prediction.
That said I should have taken a position on Intrade when brown was at 25 earlier in the week. I KNEW what the results were going to be on Tuesday, but not a big fan of betting, and that’s the only reason I didn’t jump in.
I’m not sure what the final percentages will be but I am sure that Brown has this locked up. And the ‘tells’ —
A. Just watch the faces at a Coakley event as opposed to a Brown event. There is no comparison. The Dems KNOW it’s lost.
B. Obama was in Boston today, and not because he had nothing better to do. He obviously didn’t go because he thought it would really help. Again watch the faces. He went because it was his ‘duty’ to the cannon fodder like Ms. Coakley. He HAD to.
Fearless Prediction — Brown 52/47
After Brown wins, the right will mistakenly declare victory for conservatism. This will be a victory for representative two party politics and Americans.We do not want the tyrants from either side. I fear neither party will get the message. We long to be governed by two parties constrained by the Constitution, and people with depth and reason, whom we rarely elect. We do seem to elect average people, no depth, parroting talking points. I did not vote for O but had hope in his ability to reason, once again, misplaced. Hope and change? I lost hope for our ability to elect. But if the people of Massachusetts are up in arms, then perhaps there really is hope.
(The Coakley ad accusing Brown of not supporting rape victims hit the TV just as I am ready to hit “Submit.”. Does she really believe people will fall for that? Is she that panicked and bitter?)
skeeziks: You know, the president was in church earlier today – is he a God bothering fool too? Or just Sarah Palin?
The same one note, one-sided mockery; forever stuck on stupid.
In Mass there is no same day voter registration so ACORN-style fraud is much more difficult than, for example, in Minnesota. Each town does a census that all town residents must answer to be able to vote, and new residents must register well in advance of the election. Anyone who votes must identify themselves and their address (though no positive ID is required) at the poll, which is checked against the census list, before receiving a ballot. After filling it out the voter must identify their name and address to a different poll worker before they can insert their ballot into the voting machine. Similarly, the deadline for requesting absentee ballots is 5-7 days prior to the election (can’t remember the time exactly) and are also checked against the individual’s census address. Conclusion: though enterprising individuals can still find ways to cheat, it is actually more difficult than one might expect.
On another point, one of my sons, a conservative zealot who works for a conservative NGO here is Mass doing grassroots organizing (a thankless job in Mass until this special election!) tells me the absentee ballot requests in conservative towns that lean right like Cohasset, Plymouth, Barnstable, Sandwich, and and others on the south shore (his work area) are running 5-7 TIMES the usual number beginning already shortly after our “dearly departed” Teddy departed. Coakley and the Dems thought this election was going to be a cake walk so they do not appear to have done the hard footwork in advance to get out the vote and to push absentee voters, which leaves one with the general sense that absentee ballot counts favor the Brown campaign.
I might add that Governor Deval Patrick, “Obama-light” (multilayered pun intended), is almost univerally reviled in the state, and Coakley has not turned to him in any meaningful way that I can discern–he’s a net negative. We can hope this is a leading indicator for any help Obama’s visit might have garnered. Incidently, Big O’s speech was simply awful.
Still, it’s probably going to be close. God Bless Scott Brown, the right thinking people of Massachusetts, and all of America!
Grand Moff Tarkin,
your escape craft is ready.
To any would-be vote-riggers
out there: The Web is watching,
and statistical reconstruction
of your crime will not unseat
the Usurper, but will render
her powerless, so rave on.
I will wait up to see this poll. I want to see what effect ACORN, SEIU, BIG LABOR UNIONS,and the corrupt Chicago MACHINE, will have on the new poll. GO BROWN GO.
RE #33/ Roger L Simon:
1) [...] What we have is the most ambitious and narcissistic – and that includes the current inhabitant of the White House. [...]
* I’d substitute/ add to “ambitious & narcissistic” the terms “caesaromania” and “megalomania” – both applying to most people who engage themselves in this busines.
Now, these “enhanced psychologies” certainly are not reserved for American politicians. The difference between tiny Central America dictators and Stalin and Hitler is only the geopolitical and civilizational development limitations – Somoza, Ortega, Castro or Taylor simply didn’t benefit of Germany’s or Russia’s resources, and that’s the only difference between the two sets.
Still, coming to our situation, someone’s yesterday “You are not forsaken!” comming after a recent “We shall bear wittness!” sounded a bit sinister for me – betraying (again) someone’s alarming Messianic predisposions and grandiosity -
Oh, by the way – did I mention the terms “cesaromania” and “megalomania”?
2) [...] And if you don’t think the election in MA is to some extent a referendum on him, you’ve got your head in the sand deeper than the longest necked ostrich. [...]
Aferim!
Wow Roger. You kind of ignored your own rules in your response to me. You don’t write very well do you? “Liberal-bourgeois”. Really? You almost sound like an eighth grader trying to sound smart.
You completely respond to things I did not say. Kerry? Gore? How did they get into this? My comment was directed at another commenters remarks. I didn’t mention Gore and Kerry. Your response is also peppered with invective and self-righteousness. I bet you think you raised hell don’t you?
All I learned from you is that you’re not a very good thinker or writer. Please note that what I have written in this comment is still more respectful and much calmer than what you wrote to me.
Obama was elected as a Bush backlash and because McCain stepped on/in it… Like so many Americans, I have had a deep foreboding that what Obama-ism would do to our country would be the beginning of the end: government and union control of private industry (sounds like Venezuela, right Hugo?, Joe K?), government mandated and controlled healthcare (16% of our GDP, right malaise-infested western Europe?) and massive, back-breaking national debt (but don’t those Chinese banks love it!)
Now, his naivite in foreign policy has been revealed… the facade of lasting change (can you spell N-O-B-E-L?) has been unmasked. There is real fear in America now..that we have started down a very dark path and that we must now turn back – back to the things that made us great and have defined us: individual freedom from government tyranny, a country where entreprneurial talent and hard work is rewarded, not taxed…where wealth creation, not government-funded wealth transfer creates (saves??) jobs. And where you have to work to get what you need and want – no handouts. A new type of hope – not based on rock star appeal but real substance, real, long-lasting meaning and ideals.
That is why NJ and VA went the way they have. And to see Teddy’s permanent seat go to a virtual unknown… it will send shock waves through the Democratic party. They will know for whom the bell is tolling. In a state that has sent page-loving Barney “there’s no problem with Fannie or Freddie” Frank back to DC over and over, the Minutemen still live! There are lanterns hanging again in Old North Church! And the tar and feathers are waiting for Chokeley. The pendulum has most definitely swung and it is still picking up steam. You ain’t seen nuthin’ yet. This November will be a bloodbath. And just in time.
Brown 55% Coakley 41% Kennedy 4% (Obama, turn your head and cough, my friend)
Now that Pres. Obama has landed in Boston we will show this rabble of yankee insurgents and their Brown that they cannot usurp the seat of Teddy Kennedy and the imperial power of the Democrat Party.
I live in Mass.
I too could not gain access to the Brown rally in Worcester. The police were diverting traffic there.
Every 1/2 mile or so there is a Brown sign. Coakley signs are few and very far in between.
I do home repairs. So far all clients that have been inclined to speak of the election have voiced Brown or Kennedy as the right choice. I have a Brown sticker on my lettered service van. I have not been turned away from a job even at the homes of clients with Obama stickers on their cars.
This is a very deep rooted mandate against the current administrations at both state and federal levels in my opinion here on the front line. There wasn’t this much positioning in the 2008 election from what I remember.
It took a lot of persuasion to convince Massachusetts against King George. You can be sure of the resolve of this state once convinced…..I believe we are convinced.
I see a Brown victory here in my state.
To the Party Faithful, to the Blind Followers of a Lost cause, to the Supporters of a Dying Ticket, there had better be no improprieties, there had better be no shenanigans, there had better be no “politics as usual” at the polling booth … This election is going to be FAIR and SQUARE and we will finally bury the Kennedy Legacy for the rest of time. If it isn’t, ME and the Boys will be around remembering what you did …
Something I’ve been thinking for a while got support yesterday. Look at and compare the two rallies yesterday Coakley / Obama in Boston vs. Brown in Worcester.
The Obama speech audience was populated with MA favorite import, students! Many if not most of the people interviewed and waiting in line for the speech were college students, many from out of state, whereas the Brown rally was filled with adults from all walks of life who live & vote in MA.
This will be interesting. Plus the weather forecast for tomorrw really sucks.
Just wanted to point back to the Donna V post at #57 in case anyone missed it:
“This isn’t the Democratic party of our fathers and grandfathers. This is the party of Woodstock hippies. I was at Woodstock — I built the stage. And when everything fell apart, and people were fighting for peanut-butter sandwiches, it was the National Guard who came in and saved the same people who were protesting them. So when Hillary Clinton a few years ago wanted to build a Woodstock memorial, I said it should be a statue of a National Guardsman feeding a crying hippie.”
I too am of the Woodstock generation and feel that is a perfect and insightful observation. But hey all you newer and older generations – you have allowed this strident but pathetically incapable bunch of ideologues to gain control of the machinery of state. Nice going.
Just wanted to point back to the Donna V post at #57 in case anyone missed it:
“This isn’t the Democratic party of our fathers and grandfathers. This is the party of Woodstock hippies. I was at Woodstock — I built the stage. And when everything fell apart, and people were fighting for peanut-butter sandwiches, it was the National Guard who came in and saved the same people who were protesting them. So when Hillary Clinton a few years ago wanted to build a Woodstock memorial, I said it should be a statue of a National Guardsman feeding a crying hippie.”
I too am of the Woodstock generation and feel that this is a perfect and insightful observation. But hey all you newer and older generations – you have allowed this strident but pathetically incapable bunch of ideologues to gain control of the machinery of state. Nice going.
So, what is the issue about not stateing poll numbers for Kennedy? Not being an ivy-league mathmatics professor or graduate, I would use plain old common sense to figure that if Brown is 51% and Coakley is 46%, that would leave about 3% or less for Kennedy. I guess when people get educated beyond their intelligence level, they really have problems figureing out the simple things in life.
Could it be this will be the “vote heard round the world” Go Mass!
#25. I think the term was ‘American Infidels’