Okay, here are my picks for how the Academy will vote in this year’s Oscars. NOTE: These picks do not reflect my own votes, which only in a few cases correspond to how I think the results will turn out.
Picture – Brokeback Mountain
Actor – Phillip Seymour Hoffman – Capote
Actress – Reese Witherspoon – Walk the Line
Director – Ang Lee – Brokeback Mountain
Original screenplay – Paul Haggis – Crash
Adapted screenplay – Larry McMurty & Diana Ossana – Brokeback Mountain
I am fairly certain of the above. Following are hunches:
Supporting actor – Matt Dillon – Crash
Supporting actress – Rachelle Weisz – Constant Gardener
Cinematography – Rodrigo Prieto – Brokeback Mountain
Editing – Michael Kahn – Munich (Academy loves Kahn)
Art Direction – Memoirs of a Geisha
Costume Design – Arianne Phillips – Walk the Line (perhaps wishful thinking here – loved costumes in this film)
Score – Gustavo Santaolalla – Brokeback Mountain
Song – Over the Rainbow – (okay, that’s another year – “Travelin’ Thru” – Transamerica – this is a wild guess)
Sound – King Kong
Sound Editing – King Kong
Visual effects – King Kong
Best feature animation – Wallace & Grommet in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit (Madeleine’s choice)
I don’t have picks in the foreign language or documentary categories because I didn’t see enough of them this year to vote (a good Academy rule).
You can mock me and others on Oscar Night on Pajamas Media/Mondo Hollywood where I will be live-blogging the event along with The Manolo, Gay Patriots East and West, Jeff Goldstein and other surprise guests.
…and the Oscar goes to… Whiney Blue State Cowboy Movie!
Sheepherder, not cowboy.
Ever hear the 1 about the Kiwi sheepherder who walked into his bedroom w/a pig under his arm?
Tim Hulsey at the “My Stupid Dog” blog has posted his 2005 Academy Award Predictions, which is as always a very interesting read. He doesn’t think Brokeback will win more than adapted screenplay, but will be “overjoyed” to be wrong.
“Brokeback” isn’t a “Whiney Blue State Cowboy Movie.” If it were, Ennis and Jack would have solved their relationship problems by attending couples counseling at the local mental health center. Instead, Ennis adheres to non-whiney Red State behavioral rules, and dooms them both.
Saw an article online from Newsweek that says red-state women are flocking to see Brokeback
This movie isn’t exactly breaking down along the lines everyone predicted (surprisingly good box office, etc.) so who knows what the Oscars will bring.
I saw it this weekend and liked it very much. Haven’t seen the other contenders though (I usually don’t go to theaters, was invited to go see this one) so I don’t have an opinion on how Brokeback stands up to the others. (I don’t like making assumptions about films I haven’t seen
) The movie’s directing was sublime, I thought, mainly because you don’t NOTICE the directing. So maybe Ang Lee does have a shot at Best Director.
Sheepherder, not cowboy.
Thank you, Sandy, you saved me having to do it.
As I was telling one of my friends the other day, I don’t care if you think I’m queer — but don’t call me a sheepherder.
Saw an article online from Newsweek that says red-state women are flocking to see Brokeback
This movie isn’t exactly breaking down along the lines everyone predicted (surprisingly good box office, etc.) so who knows what the Oscars will bring.
Uh, I don’ theeeeeek so, Ceesco. According to Box Office Mojo, Brokeback is doing about $120/theater during the wqeek, $450/theater on the weekends. Oh, it made money — $125 million total on a $14 million budget, not even a Hollywood accountant could make a convincing case that it didn’t make some money — but it’s playing to empty theaters now that it’s out here in the middle.
Some people are saying Brokeback Mountain is really a chick flick. If you want to know why, google “slash fiction” and women.
Madeleine is going to be happy. Good. I was a little worried.
Good heavens, I haven’t seen any of them, except for “Curse of the Were-Rabbit”. Wasn’t Our Host speculating a couple of weeks ago that this years’ Academy Awards might just be for movies that, compared to other years, very few people had actually seen?
No,Roger,the best song winner will be “It’s Hard Out Here For A Pimp”,from “Hustle & Flow”.This is really hilarious:that movie was made here in Memphis,and Memphis rap “artists”(“artistes”?)Three 6 Mafia will be performing a G rated version on the Oscar telecast.Gil Cates says this will be the last song performed,so as to spare children a song praising prostitution.
Where is Gloria Allred & Co. on this.I’m getting a headache.
tjl: If adhering to Red-State rules “dooms them both”, then we can classify the film as being of the whiney blue-state variety. A critique, if you will.
I think Ann Coulter has pretty much put this year’s Oscars to be and tucked them in, here.
And there’s never a wrong moment to recall the immortal words of John Derbyshire: “Pop culture is filth!”
To bed, dammit! Put this year’s Oscars to bed.
When Hollywood advocates for Nationalized Free Entertainment, after all life without Art means death and we all have the right to free entertainment, then maybe I’d consider watching anything the collective has to offer.
Wasn’t Brokeback Mountain filmed in Canada to avoid SAG’s union price?
Just how many Hollywood films are filmed in Hollywood anyway?
A group of experts who did not include “A History of Violence” amongst nominations for Best Picture or Best Director? Feh. Gimme a break.