I watched the news from Gaza on my hotel room television last night here in Matsumoto in the Japanese alps. This was my first view of CNN Japan, which appears quite similar to CNN Europe since it is filled with Brits – Richard Quest doing his international business show, etc. – at least at the hour I was watching. What surprised me was the positive coverage the Israelis were getting from the British commentators. Ariel Sharon, whom they normally dismiss as Attila from the Negev, was being treated like a world statesmen. They had on a Palestinian teenager who evinced some sympathy for the settlers being forced to move from their homes (it was probably hard to find this kid who looked about sixteen and spoke fluent English, but still…). It seems that, for the nonce, the Israelis have made a smart PR move. Where it goes from here is anybody’s guess.
Roger,
It seems to me it is nearly impossible, from afar (whether the “afar” is from Kah-lee-foooorn-ya or Japan!) to know what to make of this move.
I have seen convincing arguments pro and con.
It’s probably still harder to know what to make of it right in Israel.
I think so much is dependent on “hidden” variables (to borrow from philosophic arguments about quantum mechanics!).
It is tiresome, though, to see the “Palestinians” celebrating their “victory.”
What you record from Japan, though, gives me some — slight — hope that maybe for once Israel will get some credit for a sacrifice made.
But I doubt it.
Jamie Irons
ì…hope that maybe for once Israel will get some credit for a sacrifice made.
But I doubt it.î
Itís not all that important if Israel gets credit. No one should be foolish enough to trust the feckless Palestinian leadership. Further negotiations? Yeah, they can’t hurt anything. Talk is cheap. The main thing is that the Palestinians are now behind the Wall. Out of sight and soon out of mind. Oneís faith should be invested in the Wall. No longer does the Israeli military have to be concerned with the safety of the settlers. It can now freely retaliate whenever the militants get out of line.
The Palestinian areas are going to endure a significant financial collapse. Their moderates may yet decide to confront the crazies. An empty wallet and stomach could do the trick. It is said that an alcoholic wonít seek recovery until hitting rock bottom. Perhaps the same holds true for the Palestinians?
Jamie,
I read the move as Arik deciding that Mazen is very, very weak – unable to exert control. So he pulled the settlers out of Apache territory pending the “settling of differences in the traditional manner”. The Israelis really don’t have enough cavalry to protect all the settlers when the savages go on a rampage.
Have you noticed that the Hamas tribal chiefs are still keeping their faces covered? I would imagine that they know that the Israeli ‘This Hellfire’s for You’ campaign will restart soon. With good reason.
OT
All day yesterday there was a banner going by on Foxnews that the Iraqi’s have set Islamic law as the PRIMARY law to follow in their constituion.
Word is that the state dept has conceded this issue JUST to get the damn thing done in time!
I feel betrayed!
I’ve just fired off a note to the State Dept. Instapundit has a blurb now and quotes from The Big Pharoah who is livid.
CNNI had positive stuff on Gaza? Who would’a thought…
Usually CNNI from HongKong has constant anti US stuff on it…after the London bombings I watched for three days while they had Arab intellectuals etc blaming it on Bush, Israel, Iraq etc…and, of course, the commentators never bothered to question their statements….finally on the third day, they had someone from India, and when the commentator asked the leading question if the bombings were due to Iraq the commentator said: No, and neither was the bombing last week in Kashmir…
Needless to say that the commentator didn’t ask any follow up questions about terrorism in Kashmir. (they barely covered the terrorism bombings in Zamboanga last week, the beheadings in southern Thailand, never mention Indonesia’s genocide in western NewGuinea, etc…)…
And their coverage of the pope (including the late Pope’s funeral) is even worse…luckily I can watch ChannelnewsAsia from Singapore…it keeps my BP down, and I find out what is happening in Asia, not in the PC world of CNN…and CNNI…
In the land for peace equasion there are no Palestinians who can offer peace. Even if offered, it is an illusory promise, since the Islamic death cults–Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Hezballah–do not consider themselves bound by such agreements. At this time the Palestinians have nothing to offer, whatever concessions Israel makes. Pulling the settlers back behind the fence makes sense when you factor in the best use of the IDF. With Hamas in a dominate position in Gaza, I would not be surprised to see the IDF on the Gaza side of the fence, and this time they will not be burdened by having to defend a community of Israelis.
The longer it takes the Palestinians to actually make a binding committment to peace the smaller will be the West Bank portion of the new Palestinian state. No committment made by the Palestinians will be of any value unless the death cults are destroyed. If the PA were really interested in peace and setting up a state, they would ask for Israel’s assistance in destroying the death cults.
While there may be some modest PR value to the painful scenes of the withdrawel, what these scenes really demonstrate is that it was not a retreat forced by Hamas or the death cult memebers. No scenes of frantic desperation trying to catch the last helicopter out of Gaza. Just scenes of reluctance and emotion as giving up ones home in an attempt to bring the sides closer to an agreement whatever its value.
Syl:
I feel betrayed too. There has been no more ardent supporter of Bush and the Iraq war than me. We blew all that blood and treasure to install a Sharia based government? The Iranians must be laughing their asses off. The Iraqis must be dismayed and utterly devastated. Especially the women! I’m embarrassed.
Somehow, I find it hard to believe that Ariel Sharon is so concerned about international opinion that he would dispossess thousands of Israeli settlers just for some good PR. After all, he’s probably taking quite a hit at home, among the people who will determine whether his government will stand or fall.
The argument that he is preparing the battlespace makes much more sense. I think we all agree that it is highly likelyó if not inevitableó that Abbas will do nothing to rein in the terrorists in Gaza. But at that point, Sharon will be able to unleash the IDF with far fewer constraints. Then we will see Ariel Sharon in his element, and I suspect that Hamas will rue how they celebrated victory when the settlers were dragged away.
Y’all are getting a bit heated about a Reuters report. We might wait another 24 hours or so before throwing too many rocks. I’ll be watching for Iraq the Model’s reaction – they are very secular and very attentive to this issue.
Good comments, all!
I find myself agreeing with the “preparation of the battlespace” arguments, as an explanation of Sharon’s intention.
And Syl, I too feel betrayed. But I still have faith in the Iraqi women, who willl not, I think, go quietly into that good night.
Jamie Irons
Better public relations is all well and good but at best it will be fleeting. Unfortunately, for many reasons, the security situation will deteriorate dramatically because of the Gaza move. The biggest reason being that many of the Palestinian Arabs believe that the pullout shows that terrorism works, and Hamas and their scumbag ilk certainly do as well.
Well I think Israel better keep building that wall.
And I sent a note to the State Dept myself, but I am not so certain we are hearing all there is to hear on this.
I don’t really trust Reuters and it could be there is some compromise here we don’t really know about.
I know that a 2/3 vote against the constitution in 3 provinces will kill it. I don’t know if it is an all or nothng vote, or if they can accept parts and reject others.
I did read something Omar said sometime back about he likelihood of amendments.
And of course there is the haggling over the oil, which could have something to do with all this.
All we can do is wait.
But I don’t really feeled betrayed. We can only force the Iraqis so far. Too bad we can’t just write the damn thing for them.
feeled is not a word, but feel is.
You’re trusting a Reuters report?
Terrye,
And I sent a note to the State Dept myself, but I am not so certain we are hearing all there is to hear on this.
I am certain that we are not. I would love to know what is going on, but… meanwhile, everyone from Reuters on down wants to jerk my chain. So I sit and wait. Could be bad, sure, could not be so bad. In any case, I do think that bringing Islamic law into the constitution guarantees future conflict. For one thing, there are various schools of Islamic law, for another there are enough hadiths and contradictory examples that folks could argue for ever. Best leave all that to the theologians.
All I know is that Basra is bad. But the virtue of a federation is that it is difficult for everyone to go bad at once, so we will just have to wait and see.
Some of us might be getting way too hung up over mere words on a piece of paper. Religious rhetoric is often interpreted in a metaphorical manner and not meant to be taken literally. There is a very good chance that those involved in putting together this document take religion with a huge grain of salt. Letís cool are heels and wait another few hours before possibly jumping to an invalid conclusion.
Reuters is not the only one reporting–Link…
I would like something from State other than the sounds of silence. I think I’ll call and tell them that.
As to Gaza, I’d say it’s the Pali’s move. I read that in addition to the 50 mil we’ve already pledged for job creation and housing on the Gaza, we’re tossing in another 30 mil in for water treatment. Who’s your sugar daddy? And Debka reports that King Abdulla says not so fast on West Bank withdrawal (something else we’re apparently pushing). Could it be Jordan is less than thrilled with the prospect of having Palistine for a neighbor?
Waaay OT, but get a load of this:
What struck me is that when you looked at those two victims, you talk about harmless, docile people. I mean these people were so meek and mild.
and who had 8/21 7:08pmPDT in the pool?
Terrye, you wrote, Israel better keep on builing that wall:
In a talk today to the main evacuation force base:
“ emphasized that there will not be a second phase to the disengagement. He noted that Israel would negotiate on the road map only after the Palestinian Authority cracks down on terrorist groups and carries out significant reforms in its security apparatuses.”
It’s also being reported by Debka.
Whoops, that post above was supposed to say Sharon emphasized.
Preview is your friend
Not the topic, but… it may be that the ‘reports’ on ‘shari’a’ are somewhat presumptuous. OTH, there is nothing to be lost by letting State know that ‘should’ the reports be true or are about to be true, that they will be angering a great many supporters of the WOT in this country, not to mention (I suspect) a great many of the people of Iraq. Also, and sorry, I’m just not well enough indoctrinated to be PC compliant, we imposed a constitution on Japan and Germany… it seems to have worked out fairly well, what’s different…accusations of imperialism? We have spilled a good bit of blood in Iraq, (yes, I know the Iraqi’s have sacrificed more) but, shouldn’t we have some say?
As to Gaza, this is about defensible borders. This is about what Israel is capable of within the context of ‘world’ political opinion. They could, of course, completely annihilate most resistance tomorrow. But they won’t, just like we won’t. Freedom is now fighting with its hands tied behind its back, wearing a blindfold, and facing in the wrong direction. It is only ‘will’ that is holding us back.
Luther — this is the State Department. Telling them the American people want something means they’ll work for the exact opposite.
As for Gaza, I hold with the theory that Sharon is going for full isolation from the Palestinians and let them Somali themselves.
Luther,
The decision was taken prior to H hour D1 that we would not replace either the Taliban’s boot or Saddam’s with a Made In the US boot. The administration has maintained that decision and I see no reason to change it. The Afghans and the Iraqis must choose their own path to democracy and we must let them. I would imagine that the language of the Iraqi constitution will wind up resembling that of Afghanistan – Islamic principles will be acknowledge but the law will be secular.
I hope that the initial constitution, when put to the people in referendum, will be rejected. There is no harm in such a rejection and it will empower the people and lead to the compromises necessary to fully win the minority groups to the political process. If it is rejected, then the TAL remains in effect and new elections will be called. The more elections, the better.
As the Iraqi army and security forces take the predominat role in routing the terrorists and the political process continues, a true nation is being built. I believe that the situation of Iraqi women will become a model for the ME. There is something to be said for the inherent tensions that exist between the three main groups. I really doubt that the secular Kurds will allow the imposition of sharia.
We’re not the first nation to conquer Mesopotamia. Armies have bloodied that soil for over three thousand years. Perhaps a little patience is called for if we are to hope to leave a lasting mark.
Phase II will blow the scales off a few more eyelids as it becomes obvious that Israel’s retreat from Gaza changed the PA’s avowed goals not one whit. Alas, even that hard fact will readily find apologists.
Only time will tell, but if the framework is there in the Iraqi Constitution to allow changes later some references to Islam might not be so bad.
So many changes.
But people are debating this stuff in Iraq and that right there is different. And there will be future elections. we hope.
And Gaza…. we,ll it is very sad to see Israelis fighting each other. I just hope some godd can from it.
Rick,
Armies have bloodied that soil for over three thousand years.
Closer to five thousand years, I think. It isn’t called the cradle of civilization for nothing
One thing I have noticed about the Iraqi political process is its brinkmanship. Things look bad right up to the end, then suddenly there is agreement. Reminds me of what folks say bargaining in the markets is like. The country is large and diverse and I don’t see any single group dominating like the Sunnis did before.
chuck:
The guys over at lgf are very up in arms about this, but then they get up in arms about everything. I like Charles Martin, but sometimes the commetns do get kinda roudy.
I just think we need to wait. And it might not hurt to realize that just because there is some reference to Islam that does not mean they are going to be hanging women in public.
In fact the idea that womens rights will be preserved but that Islam be included is the law in Afghanistan if I remember correctly. And I don’t remember people being so upset about that.
Chuck,
Maybe even longer. Ever since there was a warehouse holding surplus goods.
Here is a better report on the remaining Iraqi sticking points. The NYT beats Reuters and the WaPo in this case.
richard and Rick, I understand the problems with State. And, just to add, with Intel. Not to mention, MSM, academia, etc.. I also understand that we have to let the Afghan’s and Iraq’s do what they will. That doesn’t mean I have to like it. I am quite schizophrenic on these matters, in fact. I know patience is called for. I know the US cannot rule by dictate. Its just that good men/women die for our forbearance, our nuance, our national need for less than brutal. My thoughts are not always rational. OTB.
Luther,
I sure hope that’s not schizophrenia because I have the same symptoms. What with the chronic psepholesis I just don’t believe I can handle another mental disorder.
That is an interesting ailment Rick. One entry in Webster’s, one return from Goggle. You certainly go for the exclusive stuff
I suppose this falls in the category of “give the people what they want”, but still, wonders never cease: Sharon Is Due in New York To Take Bow at United Nations
Withdrawal from the Gaza is perhaps a significant tipping point. All eyes now are turned on the Palistinians. Renewed aggression against Israel at this juncture will risk censure. This article says that Palestinian Arabs, and others around the world, have already started to lay the groundwork to excuse the impending failure by the Palestinian leader, Mahmoud Abbas, to create a model state there. An attempt to place the onus of “impending failure” on Sharon or Israel will not sit well within the body of current world opinion I should think.
I apologize for veering off topic again, but I wouldn’t want anyone to miss this report from Melanie Morgan, a member of the “Voices of Soldiers” Truth Tour reporting from Iraq, in an exclusive to Lucianne.com.
The world just loves it when Jews retreat.
Ricpic:
How painfully true those 8 words are!
Imagine the international gushing [of support] if real Jewish blood had been shed at the roof of Kfar Darom? Koffer himself might have shed a tear [of joy].
I agree with the defensible borders commenters. Any terror or rockets coming out of Gaza will be quickly regretted.
Kyda: “All eyes now are turned on the Palistinians. Renewed aggression against Israel at this juncture will risk censure.”
Oh no! Anything but censure!
Heh.
I think this is probably another retreat by Israel, and the fact that the UN is giving him the red-carpet treatment suggests that things aren’t going well for us good guys.
If the Hellfires start flying (faster please!) I’ll retract, but I suspect we’re getting sold out again.
On Iraq:
Rick wants patience. Well, hell yeah. It’s only two years since the war. Germany in 1947 wasn’t exactly Eden. And if the press had covered WWII like this one, the Nazis would still be in power.
On Israel:
I have the same doubts that everyone else has. But Ariel Sharon has devoted every fiber of his being for his entire life to the preservation of Israel. I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise.
Dam good posting.I read some of you’re articles and they are really nice.
I enjoyed reading them.
Tedd