As of 6PM Saturday Baghdad time, the carnage predicted for the day before the election has not transpired. Eight Iraqis killed, bad as that is, cannot be counted as a high total under these dramatic circumstances. The “insurgency” does not seem to be that powerful. Of course, the intimidation factor is another thing and we shall see the results of that, measured in voter turnout, tomorrow.
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Roger:
A friend of mine said the other day that if these guys could kill a thousand people in a day why hadn’t they already done that?
good point.
I do wish there could have been more open campaigning etc. I think that is why so many people in cities like Mosul seem to be so uninformed about the process and the candidates etc. Whether they can kill a lot of people or not, they have managed to scare them to death.
But it should be remembered that there will be another election next December. This election is just the first step. If you look at our own history it took years for the US to write and draft a Constitution, get it ratified and then hold elections for reps who in turn elected a president. In fact it was a generation before we had direct elections for president.
Too bad the Brits did not have the MSM we have today. No doubt they could have convinced everyone that establishing an independent government in the Colonies was hopeless.
I think that is why so many people in cities like Mosul seem to be so uninformed about the process and the candidates etc.
Terrye,
We have to remember that a lot of people in Iraq are uneducated and uninformed. This election, the party slates, and the whole form of government is still very new and nebulous. There are no traditions to fall back on. The Iraqi bloggers are an educated elite, they speak english, many have been out of the country, and so we get a skewed view of things through them. Try to see this through the eyes of a villager or slum dweller.
In this election, process and hope is as important as the candidates. Much work remains to be done. Let us pray that Iraqis do not become discouraged as the messy making of new politics goes forward. Let us hope with them that liberty and progress takes hold in the region.
I’ll bet the media are disappointed. No bombs, boo hoo!
Except the linked CNN article depicts a strong insurgency, as it lists every attack it can find before mentioning how happy Iraqis in other countries are about the election. Then the article returns to tallying the carnage:
“Insurgents have been targeting police stations and polling centers and threatening candidates. At least 14 people died in pre-election violence on Friday alone.”
CNN considers 14 people killed in one day as remarkably high. It’s going to take very little for the MSM to depict election day in Iraq as one of unending violence.
Tomorrow’s the big day. And over here tomorrow starts tonight.
I predict a 75% turn out.
I’m lowballing it!
Let’s not tempt fate, eh Roger?
I worry that the terrorists are saving their violence for Sunday. Once THAT day is out without any major violence then we can laugh at those fading, impotent SOBs….
…but not before. Because I do worry.
I had a similar conversation just last evening. A nearby TV had a news channel on and the topic was the continuing carnage in Iraq. The person I was with wondered aloud how a civil, democratic society could ever be established in the face of such unremitting violence.
I pointed out that if one continued to listen to the news one would shortly hear about a lone, suicidal idiot who managed, almost accidentally, to destroy two trains, kill 11 people, and injure a hundred or more other people. Then one who hear about the industrial accident leading to an acetylene explosion that killed several people. Then one would hear about various fires and other various things leading to people’s violent deaths. Mayhem and carnage are not unusual or particularly difficult to create accidentally or through sheer stupidity.
Given that, how powerful and capable, really, is this Iraqi insurgency so beloved by the MSM? They have military weaponry – automatic rifles, full-fledged machine guns, rocket-propelled grenades and launchers, mortars, hand-grenades, artillery shells and various other rather powerful high-explosives. And they claim to be ruthless, well-funded, organized, and determined. Yet they manage to kill and injure only a relatively small number of people. The “most deadly day yet” for American troops was the result of a helicopter crash that seems to have been accidental – an accident killed more US troops in one day than either the Iraqi military or the Baathist dead-enders or the international terrorists, with murderous malintent and the promise of cash rewards, have managed to kill.
While I certainly would not wish to be one of the “insurgencies” success stories and do not denigrate or downplay the bloodshed, it seems pretty clear that the “insurgency” in general and its leadership in particular are not particularly powerful or adept. They really are just murderous morons.
Jeff,
While I appreciate your point, our discussion of this topic will have no effect upon events in Iraq. The fate of the Iraqi people is not ours to tempt.
Terrye
“Too bad the Brits did not have the MSM we have today. No doubt they could have convinced everyone that establishing an independent government in the Colonies was hopeless.”
No, they’e still be rooting for the “insurgents”
Whabi Islamists and Australian communists tried to disrupt the Iraqi voting in Australia today.
The voters attacked them.
My explanation for the pathetic showing by the terrorists is that the whole thing is unraveling on them. Completely.
We’re the best in the world at capturing and killing terrorists. We don’t have a 100% success rate (obviously) but our anti-terrorist, military intelligence and special forces are the best, bar none, at killing or capturing the enemy.
Personally, I think they already have Zarquawi. And if not, he’s losing his LT’s at a rapid pace- thus, he’s losing his infrastructure and without said infrastructure, he’s basically a common thug- better armed than the average thug but a thug nonetheless. I think its no conincidence that Al Queda stays well away from US military targets and spends most of his time trying to kill Iraqis- a much softer target.
Al Queda and the insurgent jackholes are losing. We should never have expected the fight to last a month. Weeding out these murdering cowards is a job thats not over yet but I believe the US military is seeing the light at the end of the tunnel.
I did hear of an attack at 7:30 Iraqi time on the Green Zone. Two Americans were killed. The amazing thing is the coalition already has the guys who launched the rocket. It seems they fired from a house in Southern Baghdad and the military was able to trace the rocket straight to them. These terroirsts may be homicidal and fanatical but they ain’t too bright.
I hope people do get the hang of voting. I think in time the process will becomme easier for them to manage. But the socalled insurgents maybe like the Basque seperatists and the IRA. It might be years before they entirely disappear. And then it may just be because they change tactics.
John Moore poated the Embassy attack on the Command Post http://www.command-post.org/iraq_index.html
I think many of those who carry out the attacks are dispensable and are just given the target and the weapons,outside of the fanatics many will just be doing it for the money.
Granted that the violence in these countries is not so spectacular ie news-friendly as in Iraq, but I’d like to see an honest, impartial, well-researched long story comparing the nature and amount of violence during the transition to democracy in previously repressive or even totalitarian regimes: El Salvador, South Africa, Bosnia, Nicaragua, Romania, Afghanistan, Philippines etc.
Specifically, how long did it take the newly elected regime to establish anything like real order in the country? How long to make a dent in the chaotic aftereffects of the regime’s downfall, ie, an explosion in crime, economic recession and extraordinarily high unemployment and/or inflation, state failure and official corruption, etc?
As far as South Africa goes, it’s obvious that by the standards that the Bush-haters are applying to post-Saddam Iraq, the South African democracy ten years on would have to be judged an abysmal failure: the most dangerous and violent peacetime capital city in the world; something like 30% of the adult female population has been raped; 50% unemployment; and last but not least, 20% of the population or more has AIDS. Where are the MSM stories decrying the colossal failure of the post-apartheid state?
As to El Salvador and Nicaragua, I seem to recall that El Salvador like Iraq was engulfed in fascist violence leading up to its elections a decade+ ago. Where are the MSM stories on this?
There does seem to be some activity – another blog I found that is reporting some violence is here => http://ishouldhavestayedhome.blogspot.com/2005_01_01_ishouldhavestayedhome_archive.html
And Terrye, I agree that the turnout will depend largely on the area.
You can be sure that the MSM will focus on the areas that are least responsive to the invitation to vote.
My prediction also is that the violence will not be as bad as predicted.
Hope I’m right!
notthisgirl:
I hope you are right.
Thibaud:
Saddam managed to kill and maim and torture people for years with virtually no reporting from the MSM. Those NGO’s can be a pain but they were the ones who really got the story of human rights abuses out. So if they can neglect to report on the ethnic cleansing of the Marsh Arabs and the mass murder of thousands of children why should we expect them to talk about power vacuums?
http://www.tennessean.com/government/archives/05/01/64507950.shtml
An article about the translator who caught Saddam voting in Nashville. Can’t find the CNN video, but it was good.
Based on CBS News early exit polling, Dan Rather is reporting that Saddam Hussein will win reelection with 103% of the votes cast.
//
James Taranto on (IIRC) Thursday’s best of the web had an interesting point: No one in the MSM deemed the south african elections a travesty because Afrikaaners didnt show up to vote. Speaks volumes. The Shiites and the Kurds will be represented in numbers commensurate with their electoral strength–the Sunni’s may vote; that remains to be seen. But we should recall that there are provisions in place to represent Sunni’s even if they dont vote–I suppose we could make the same point that in the US the elections are invalid because the, the communist party in the USA is not represented. Sounds like Iraq is on the road to nationhood to me.
I just caught my flagrant syntax error, LOL: “…who caught Saddam voting in Nashville.”
No, the translator was voting in Nashville, not Saddam!
James Taranto on (IIRC) Thursday’s best of the web had an interesting point: No one in the MSM deemed the south african elections a travesty because Afrikaaners didnt show up to vote. Speaks volumes.
Wow. Great point.
Prior to the election, the military and CIA probably pulled a number of surprises.
Waiting until the last minute to capture various leaders, for example, breaking up coordination and planning.
It is unlikely an accident that we caught the guys who attacked the embassy. There are probably far more sensors in the air right now than norma, and probably have been for days in certain areas.
Who knows what else we are doing. Did the tight control on driving break up plans? You betcha, unless it was leaked to the baddies.
If the enemy strategy was to mount a major operation (probably consisting of very many little actions), the preparations would have been an intelligence gold mine. While the baddies were known but not in the can, their activities were probably sensor-tracked in order to map the network (similar to radio intercept traffic analysis).
So our strategy is to disrupt the disrupters, using sudden changes in the battlefield (curfews, driving bans, raids, and other measures).
What is the insurgents’ strategy? They have tried hard to discourage voting, but will probably fail. The Sunnis are boycotting the vote. That won’t help them, because slots are being held for Sunnis.
A large number of attacks on voters, at home and around the polling places, would be discouraging to voters, but the insurgents probably don’t have the capability to do it – especially without mobility. Perhaps some suicide vests or automatic weapons fire at crowds of voters will be tried, but weapons have been temporarily banned.
The other approach might be a WMD attack. Insurgents are likely to have have chemical weapons. The fact that they misused them in IED attacks indicates their existence. Furthermore, if as has been reported by good sources, some WMDs went to Syria, they may be back in Iraq now.
But who do they attack with it? Voters? Is that really going to achieve their goals?
The insurgency is probably going to suffer badly as a result of the election.
We shall see.
On the eve (one hour away) of this historic event, I can’t stop thinking about the day that the John Kerry campaign crystallized to the world that he was unfit to be Commander in Chief, the day that Ayad Allawi spoke to the U.S. Congress and Joe Lockhart of the Kerry campaign famously said that he could see the “puppet strings of George Bush” attached to Allawi’s back.
The MSM and the Democratic Party will be eating their words for decades to come.
The buffet opens in (now) 50 minutes.
25 minutes to go and I’m nervous. There’s so much at stake right now.