Omar and Mohammed of Iraq the Model have arrived home safely! Hoo-ray!… Omar reports on his trip, but there is still no explanation for their brother Ali leaving the blog. That awaits Ali, as it should.
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This whole thing has a soap opera quality to it. Strange, very strange.
I thought the same thing.
Look, we in the west can’t even begin to understand the pressures those guys are under. Being a Sunni political candidate in Iraq right now is risky enough, but if you’re pro-US it is almost deadly. Kidnapping attempts on self or family if not attempts on your life become probable, not merely possible. I don’t think anyone has a right to second guess whatever he might do to increase his security from now at least through the election.
If you pray for anyone, pray for the safety of these brothers.
In light of the violence of the past 36 hours, I’d be interested to hear the Brothers position on the Sunni people being left out the elections in the event these attacks continue. Isn’t that the only logical result? Since there’s little doubt its sunni arabs and their murdering buddies from Syria who are carrying out the attacks.
Ultimately, I have trouble understanding the Sunnis- restoring Hussein to power is simply not feasible and they fight though there’s no way they can accomplish any tangible goals besides chaos- and what good does chaos do Iraq and its people ?
Matt — You write as though the Sunnis were some homegenous, ideologically uniform mass _ “Allahland”, if you will _ and that’s not the case. A substantial majority of the Sunnis seem to want the elections to happen, because they realize that if they get left on the outside of the new Iraqi political order, they are surrounded by people who don’t like them, who are sitting on all Iraq’s oil and international access without them.
A substantial majority of the Sunnis seem to want the elections to happen, because they realize that if they get left on the outside of the new Iraqi political order, they are surrounded by people who don’t like them, who are sitting on all Iraq’s oil and international access without them—R.Mc
This ‘substantial majority’you reference is beginning to assume the mystical status of all those ‘moderate’ Muslims who are being oppressed by the lunatic fringe.
They may exist but the evidence is very hard to find.The ‘latest polls’ out of the Baghdad area show about 15-18% of the survey group to :
A.Support compromise with the Baathists.
B.Want elections postponed.
C.Do not believe that the elections will in fact go ahead.
Surprisingly these percentages are reflective of the estimated Sunni population in Iraq.Probably a coincidence,but —
The Sunnis have a clear choice to rat out the ‘insurgents’,or to provide them with at least passive support.Up to now,they appear to be going with the ‘support’ option,as even Sunni politicians say that they expect only a 10% turnout in Sunni areas.They are making their own beds and soon they will have to lie in them.It is going to be a sad and unhappy experience for them when(not if)the Shiites get their act together and can mount serious military threats.
dougf,
The Iraqis seem to be organized by tribe and family as much as by religion. I think that Richard makes a good point, and one we should bear in mind.
dougf:
I read that 80% of the people in Baghdad want the elections to go ahead. Baghdad is part of the Sunni triangle.
All the dead enders can do is screw things up for everybody else. I guess if you are a homicidal maniac with no more sense of right and wrong than a tree frog, that is enough.
Richard, I understand and to a certain extent, agree with what you’re saying. I do not wish to stereotype but at the same time, it is virtually undisputed that of the three groups of Iraqis, the Sunnis have consistently been proven to be the most violence prone anti-election group. And as dougf mentions, there seems to be very little unified public outcry from Sunni tribal leaders to end the violence and participate in elections. Iraqis, ultimately, MUST step up to the plate and provide their own security- Shias and Kurds have done this- the Sunni leadership, obviously conflicted about the loss of their meal ticket and the fact that a democratically elected government would put their enemies in charge of the country, has not done this. Is there any point where the US and the Iraqi government declare the Sunnis persona non grata ?
Hearing about 19 servicemen being blown up at chow time is incredibly discouraging- the violence must stop and no matter how many boots we put on the ground, ultimately, the Iraqis must see to their own house. Again, the Kurds and Shias have, for the most part, done that. The Sunnis, for the most part, have failed to do this, allowing their cities to be overrun by foreign thugs and their own tribesmen to commmit violent acts against the Iraqi government, as well as the Coalition forces.
Moderate Sunnis MUST take control of their tribe- we’re offering them a carrot- democratic elections- but where is the stick ?? Perhaps I’m not nuanced enough to only attribute the violence to certain tribes but I am also running out of patience with the Sunnis.
Matt:
I am running out of patience with all of this, but we must remember than the bad guys get what they want through intimidation. They threaten families. I read that the Nazis were able to lock up all the Jews because they targetted families. It is one thing to risk your own life, another thing to risk the lives of the people you love. Saddam’s people are experts at scaring folks, that is how 20% of the population maintained control over the country in the first place.
Yep Terrye, I hear you and I agree. I’m not giving up hope. I think elections will go forward. I think the majority of Iraqis want elections and I think we’ll end up facilitating that.
At the same time, I wonder what kind of security protocals allows an attack like the one on the mess to take place.