Power Line has a poll of pre-election attitudes in Baghdad. 80% want to go ahead with the election as scheduled; 18% back postponement. I wonder what the result would be in Europe. The reverse? As Hindrocket puts it, the only people who want the elections postponed are the ones who want them never to take place.
UPDATE: This poll correlates with what we were told by Omar and Mohammed of ItM at my house the other night. They asked us not to judge all Sunnis by the “insurgents.” If this poll (taken in the heart of Sunni territory) is to be believed, they had a point.
MORE: Apropos of who is on what side in Iraq, have a look at the always-interesting Andrew Apostolou’s article today on why the U. S. will end up acting alone. Sobering news.
This is good news. The situation in Iraq is obviously tenuous, and success is far from assured, but it is a terrible idea to postpone the elections because terrorists are murdering civilians with the goal of causing a postponement of the elections.
Note that the poll was taken in and around Baghdad. The results outside the Sunni Triangle are probably close to 100%.
100% in favor of elections in January, I should add.
Right, Roger. 80% until they lose. Then the shooting starts.
An alliance with the US means we allow others to hold our coats while we do the fighting(and spend the money). It’s just a bit of charity on our part, trying to make the impotent feel a little less that way. If we win , we share the glory. If we lose, it’s all our fault. The Euros are penniless 60 year olds living in their parents basements. We’re the parents, and it’s OK to make fun of the kids you support.
Roger:
The tragic situation is that a portion of the MSM and the chattering classes are going to proclaim that the elections will not be valid because a portion of the Sunni population will boycott the election. They won’t boycott it because of some technical voting reason they will opt out because they don’t want Democracy and they only want a return of a Sunni controlled dictatorship. Since they can’t dominate a fair election they will try to frustrate the rest of the populations desire for a democratic free country. This minority is a rejectionist faction and anyone who gives them legitimacy by supporting their desire for dictatorship can not say they want a free Iraq. The Kurds are a minority but they are taking up the challenge of Democracy and they are going to participate in the process even though they know the Shias will be the majority party. If a small faction of the Sunni population is allowed to violently hamper the process they should be condemned, not be held out as a legitmate minority party with valid grievences. They are fighting for dictatorship, not democracy. Anyone who says the election is not valid because of the Sunnis who refuse to participate is backing dictatorship and should be ashamed of themselves.
Kevin:
It really does not matter what the media or Europe says, the ones that matter are the Iraqis.
Actually, I think the NATO column is wrong, wrong, wrong.
I’m pretty sure Kerry did not ‘overestimate’ the amount of help we could count on from Europe.
I think Kerry’s plan was to blackmail Europe into helping by threatening to pull out all American troops if they didn’t and let the country explode. An exploding Iraq, he and his advisors figured, would be more dangerous to Europe than to us.
I say this for a couple of reasons.
First of all, Joe Biden, who was tapped to serve as Kerry’s secretary of state, told reporters that was the plan:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A59943-2004Oct24?language=printer
Second, I know this was a serious idea, because earlier Edward Luttwak had put the same idea forward in the TIMES:
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/18/opinion/18luttwak.html?pagewanted=print&position=
A couple of months ago somebody at THE CORNER was asking, What was Kerry’s secret plan?
I think that was it.
That and partition the place.
Catherine:
I think you are probably right here.
I also think that Iraq’s neighbors should stop and ask if they would rather have a democracy in Iraq or mayhem? In the long run mayhem would certainly spread, democracy might spread.
If we leave, who would really benefit? The French, the UN, the neighbors? None of the above.
I do hope a new Secretary of State will do a better job of getting us some cooperation.
Are Kerry and/or Biden insane? What is that, the “Blazing Saddles” school of diplomacy?!
Of course, it would have saved Kerry any future foreign policy challenges, since no one would have trusted the US again…
In response to this poll, Nancy Pelosi today say, (*stare*) “80%? Well, that’s hardly a mandate, now is it?”