The Beginning of the End or the End of the Beginning?
Activity at a Syrian chemical weapons depot has prompted Hillary Clinton to warn against any use of these devices. The AP reports: “WASHINGTON — U.S. and allied intelligence have detected Syrian movement of chemical weapons components in recent days, a senior U.S. defense official said Monday, as the Obama administration again warned the Assad regime against using them.”
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, in Prague for meetings with Czech officials, reiterated President Barack Obama’s declaration that Syrian action on chemical weapons was a “red line” for the United States that would prompt action.
Readers will recall the New York Times recently emphasized the difficulty in securing these stockpiles. It reported that “the Pentagon has told the Obama administration that any military effort to seize Syria’s stockpiles of chemical weapons would require upward of 75,000 troops” raising doubts about the credibility of Clinton’s warning.
The estimated size of the potential effort, provided to the White House by the military’s Central Command and Joint Staff, called into question whether the United States would have the resources to act quickly if it detected the movement of chemical weapons and forced President Obama, as he said in August, to “change my calculus” about inserting American forces into Syria. So far Mr. Obama has avoided direct intervention into the most brutal civil conflict to emerge from the Arab Spring uprisings, and the Pentagon assessment was seen as likely to reinforce that reluctance.
Just what Hillary could do if Syria crosses her Red Line is an interesting question. Perhaps having kicked the can down the road for so long the Obama administration may find that it is too late to turn the Titanic away from the iceberg. The AP article cited above said:
An administration official said the trigger for U.S. action of some kind is the use of chemical weapons or movement with the intent to use or provide them to a terrorist group like Hezbollah. … Syria is believed to have several hundred ballistic surface-to-surface missiles capable of carrying chemical warheads.
Its arsenal is a particular threat to the American allies, Turkey and Israel, and Obama singled out the threat posed by the unconventional weapons earlier this year as a potential cause for deeper U.S. involvement in Syria’s civil war.
Fears that Assad may use the devices has been prompted by reports of rebels pressing in on the airport at Damascus and unconfirmed stories that the Syrian regime can no longer adequately treat its wounded at the military hospitals.
Just now the UN has announced it is withdrawing all non-essential staff from Syria and “put those who remain in the country on standby to move to places of safety”. Other reports say that a key Syrian foreign ministry official has decamped for Britain under circumstances that are still unclear.
Reports say that Russia has is preparing to evacuate its nationals from Syria [fixed]. “According to the Kremlin’s Middle East envoy Mikhail Bogdanov, Russian emergency services have reserved several planes to evacuate Russian nationals from Syria. These people are officials, engineers and Russian wives.”
Vladimir Putin has met with Turkish PM Erdogan today on “a trip focused on resolving sharp differences over the near 21-month conflict raging in Syria”
The Economist speculates that Assad may be shortening his lines and preparing to move his troops into the long-mooted Alawite enclave. It is giving up untenable swathes of the north and falling back, possibly taking its chemical weapons with it.
The regime has proved remarkably reluctant to pull garrisons and bases out of northern areas largely controlled by the rebels, but it may soon be forced to consolidate in Damascus and up the highway to Latakia, the coastal heartland of the Alawite sect, to which the ruling Assads belong. The government has already largely withdrawn its forces from the east, where rebels have moved in from the Iraqi border to the edge of Deir Ezzor, the main city in the region, snatching bases along the way. Military analysts now suspect it may do the same in the rural areas of Aleppo and Idleb in the north.
That may be what Hillary hopes for. Obama administration inaction has left it woefully unprepared to handle an Assad collapse in place. Now everything may depend on how well Assad’s generals can retreat under fire.
What seems obvious is that the crisis in Syria may come to a head before the US decides whether it will support the Syrian rebels. The speed of the events may have caught the administration, as ever, by surprise. It seems more than possible that Assad’s chemical weapons will either be used in the last spasms of the regime or fall into the hands of whoever controls the ground.
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Gee, these wouldn’t by any chance be the non-existent chem weps trucked out of Iraq, would they?
Israel may step in where the Paper Tiger only roars… Jordan will come to a boil sooner if Syria accelerates. So many pieces are falling, Happy Dec 21!
When those Russian nationals are pulled out, watch for them taking lots of freight with them. Can’t let the paperwork and equipment connecting them to the Syrian WMD programs be left behind…
Sure sounds like rhetoric ratchet to get an outraged US population energized for a little kinetic military action. Next we’ll hear how Assad’s forces are raping and torturing civilians as they try to flee. There probably needs to be a startling and media friendly event, though. A village attacked by mustard gas might be just the ticket.
Unfortunately, a vacuum is developing and contest to fill it could involve some important geopolitical players who have significant man and fire power at their disposal.
Psssst…… “Reports say that Russia has is preparing to evacuate its nationals from Russia.”
Not only do the Chinese regularly make off with our secrets now the Iranians seem to steal with ease, the US Gov leaks worse than a bucket with a rusted out bottom….
“Activity at a Syrian chemical weapons depot has prompted Hillary Clinton to warn against any use of these devices.”
Is anybody advocating the use of these weapons? Is that like saying “I like walks on the beach at sunset and warm cuddly puppy dogs?” I don’t see what credibility this administration has when it comes to following from behind in these matters. Frankly, Assad must see this as a poison pill worthy of deliberation. Getting the US to attack yet another ME government, and unlike Libya, Russia has their fingers deep in the Syrian regimes glove.
But no wonder the Dems are so enthusiastic about a draft. After the shirking of victory in Iraq and the war of attrition against US troops in Afghanistan, who would want to serve these jackasses?
Members of the armed services should muster out as soon as possible. The only way the communist regime will be voted back out of dictatorship is when we see the kiddies burning their draft cards in the street.
“Just what Hillary could do if Syria crosses her Red Line is an interesting question.”
A spry gal like Hillary will be as adapt at dodging chemical weapons in Syria as she was sniper fire in Bosnia.
“Just now the UN has announced it is withdrawing all non-essential staff from Syria ”
Why would you have non-essential staff in the first place and why would you withdraw them if you did? Seems like an excellent way to prune the deadwood.
In the USA its the beginning of the beginning.
The Muslim Plan to Take over America From the Inside
http://politicaloutcast.com/2012/12/the-muslim-plan-to-take-over-america-from-the-inside/
cutting off internet access could be a precursor to use of chemical weapons, don’t want to let that information out.
Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen.
A Syria of armed ethnic cantons. What fun.
Once again, this seems more like a desired outcome than the inept result of leading from behind.
According to CNN:
“We came, we saw, we killed.” Tee-Hee!!!
Not to be sexist, but we’ve 3 of the stupidest women on the planet calling the shots and Teleprompter-in-Chief over here wetting his diapers. Our only hope is that the Syrians laugh themselves to death.
Max Boot at Commentary makes reasonable point regarding killing Syrians with gas as opposed to bombs and bullets: what’s the diff?
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2012/12/03/on-drawing-the-line-at-chemical-weapons/
So it must be about how this whole thing is presented in media. Reporting in media that precursors are “being mixed” sounds serious to me. Must be some awesome intellignece, sort of like what Colin Powell presented at UN.
Killing far fewer Libyans was good enough to “lead from behind” and erase the Duck of Death. A higher bar is necessary to go eliminate the chinless ophthalmologist.
If you do not play nice we will send Hillary to instruct your daughters in modern mutual self empowerment and transcendent liberation through applied artificial motivation and stimulation. More Friends of Hillary to follow. Batteries not included.
If you remain recalcitrant other Friends will come to instruct your sons.
I have long wondered if Syria can feed herself? Has the civil war left the agricultural sector alone? If Syria is importing food, how are they paying for it and who is supplying it?
I only wonder about this as hunger is a looming problem for Egypt.
Yes, my thoughts exactly. What is so terrible about killing people with “war gases” as opposed to bullets and explosives and shrapnel or a bayonet in the gut? What is it that gets the Left in huff over that?
Dead is dead, and it is easier to defend against a gas than it is getting blown up. I have two surplus gas masks, one Israeli, one DDR, but I have nothing that will stop a bomb whistling toward me.
Remember napalm? We used it in WWII – even on Japanese cities – and in Korea, but in Vietnam it was deemed too nasty. What the…? I don’t get it! If it is the indiscriminate nature of nape and gas, remember that we are fighting people who have redefined “indiscriminate.” In fact it appears that indiscriminate is a feature, not a bug, of their tactics.
The most effective way to respond to gas warfare, if it troubles you so much, is to hit them with something worse. Like nukes, for example. That will eliminate the 75K of troops needed to “secure” the chemical stocks. WMD is WMD; they have theirs and we have ours.
I wonder if The Reichbama has realized yet that leading from behind leaves you blind in front.
How would you go about explaining this strategy to Patton or U S Grant?
It’s as though Lee called JEB Stuart in before he headed off to Pennsylvania and told him to just take thirty days leave, ‘We won’t be needing you up north.’
Leading from behind, the critical question becomes;
‘Who IS up front?’
Putin?
Turkey?
It’s hard to tell from behind.
With his post election flexibility to draw on, perhaps our [ what do you call the guy who stears the rear end of a hook and ladder truck?] Leader [ maybe we ought to start spelling that - redaeL ] could ask brother Vlad whats going on up front?
My nephew is a new 2nd Lt., just finished Ranger school and been assigned to the 82nd Airborne, in command of a platoon. He is the pride of the family and the whole center of his mothers heart.
What in Gods name do I say to him?
So…….. What, exactly, is on the other side of Hillary’s “red line”? Another harshly worded memo?? Some rude name-calling?? A threat to convene a United Nations panel to discuss sanctions?? The possibility that President wOn will get “all wee wee’d up”???
I’m sure that Assad is quaking in his boots!!!
A M @ #7,
If the Dems do reinstate a draft, will this time young men dodge the draft by claiming to be heterosexual? Or non-users of drugs?
And if the maladministration dispatches troops who are HIV positive, would that constitute biological warfare? Weapons of Ass Destruction?
Does Obama actually give a rats anus about what happens in Syria? I tend to doubt that he does. His mind is on golf, vacations, and executive orders.
From the perspective of what is best for American national interest, letting Assad expend his gas arsenal in the current civil war would be the best outcome possible. The choices in the Syrian civil war are either Assad and the Alawites (mostly secular fascists allied with Iran); OR the free Syrian Army and the local branch of the Muslum Brotherhood (religious fascists who would also be quite willing to ally with Iran). If, as increasingly seems likely, the Brotherhood wins, it is quite possible they would allow Hamas or Hezbollah or Al-Qaida (or all of them) to have some of those chemical weapons.
Let us be blunt: under Obama the USA has neither the will nor the economic strength nor the military power (where, on short notice, are 75000 troops going to come from and how would they be supplied?) to stop Assad or seize the chemical weapons. Of course, the USA could join forces with Israel (who would be happy to help) but no Muslum, no matter how desperate, would accept help from a Jew – they would rather take their chances with Sarin. So, one may as well make a virtue out of necessity – the best way to prevent Assads chemical arsenal from getting into the hands of terrorists and ending up on the streets of New York is to let him expend it now against his own people.
If this sounds too cold blooded and horrible for you remember – military weakness is what the American people voted for.
#8. bob
“Why would you have non-essential staff in the first place and why would you withdraw them if you did?”
I think that for the UN, an important related question would be what do they consider to be “essential” personnel? Child rapists? Embezzlers?
On a more serious note, while I have already spent some time today debunking the soganannte Mayan end of the world prophecy on December 21; it does bid fair to be one nasty end of the year and early next year. Too many crisis’, foreign and domestic, coming to a boil at once; aggravated by a National Command Authority and administration whose loyalties are more likely not on the side of anything domestic.
Tidings of Com-fort and Joy, Comfort and Joy, O-Oh, Tidings of Com-m-mfort and Joy.
Subotai Bahadur
Obama/Hillary are going to do just what Jimmy Carter did during the Iran hostage crisis. They are gonna Phuc It Up.
Funny how once a Democrat cuts and bones the military then suddenly the military is being sent in by these same Democrats and when it all goes to shit blame a whole host of people, places and things to evade the actual blame that they deserve.
They will send some half assed operation by the SF/SOCAM that will get obliterated because there aren’t enough assets in theater while Hill and Barry watch.
Don’t worry The Obama gang will show up and escort the caskets off the plane looking all solemn and sad.
One thing for sure, when control of Assad’s military slips enough local Commanders being hard pressed to survive will use that Chemical portion of the Saddam WMD’s that the same Democrats say did not ever exist.
I don’t think Obama and Corp. are going to do squat about Syria, poison gas or not.