The Jewel of Denial
Remember the old head-scratcher? Who’s taller? The world’s smallest giant or the world’s tallest midget? Well the Los Angeles Times has another one for us. Is Egyptian president Morsi now the world’s most authoritarian democratic leader or the least restrictive dictator on earth? Put it another way: if you stage a “soft coup” are you still taking over the goverment?
The president’s decision to appoint Lt. Gen. Abdel Fattah Sisi to replace Tantawi as defense minister and chief of the military was regarded as a “soft coup” against Egypt’s old-guard establishment. It was also the latest move by Morsi, a conservative Islamist, to put his stamp on the fledgling government.
Since one of the first things he did was prosecute his media critics, the now alarmed Washington Post has admonished Morsi “to moderate his power grab”. While sympathetic to the fact that he had to draw before the Army cleared leather, the Washington Post expressed the hope that he would only shoot the army’s pistol out of it’s hand. Like the Lone Ranger.
Mr. Morsi probably had no alternative but to face off with the generals and consolidate his political standing. The military council would not have permitted a democracy to flourish. But Mr. Morsi must avoid the temptation of absolutism, and that means respecting other centers of power. He must still command a military establishment that has vast economic interests and is deeply rooted in the state. He must respect the secular and liberal forces who have been rivals to, and suspicious of, the Muslim Brotherhood.
Mr. Morsi also must learn to live with a certain amount of criticism. In recent days, the authorities announced prosecutions of journalists, some of them close to the military and not particularly sympathetic to Mr. Morsi. The president should not go down this road. He promised in a televised address on Sunday not to “narrow freedoms,” a pledge he must uphold at all costs if Egypt is to move beyond the stagnant authoritarianism of the Mubarak years.
The Post’s well-intentioned editorial misses the point. The entire purpose of grabbing power is so you do not have to share it; so you can ride roughshod over dissenting “secular and liberal forces”; so you can jail journalists whenever you want. It would be as likely for a President to to stage a “soft coup” in order to share power as it would be for robber to stick up a bank so that he could give the money away.
Michelle Dunne, writing in the Atlantic Council while following the line that Morsi had to draw on the army before the army drew on him, nevertheless faces the facts. “President Mohammed Morsi appears to be using last week’s Sinai crisis as an opportunity to implement a broader plan.” The article then proceeds to draw some indicative Red Lines.
Optimists on Twitter August 12 were saying that Morsi was finally removing the dregs of the Mubarak regime and would now implement the goals of the 2011 revolution. Certainly it would have been difficult, perhaps impossible, for Morsi to be an effective president under the constraints the SCAF had set up for him. But there is also the possibility that Morsi will move beyond the caution of his early appointments to bring more and more Brotherhood members or sympathizers into senior positions, carrying out the putsch that many have feared.
One development to watch closely is the fate of the constituent assembly, which was selected by the parliament and is working on a new draft constitution while facing a lawsuit that could end in its dissolution. Morsi has now seized from the SCAF the prerogative to appoint a new assembly should this one be dissolved. Another area to watch is senior judicial appointments; there have been rumors that Morsi will act soon to change the composition of the Supreme Constitutional Court, as some of the judges have sided with the SCAF against Morsi. Either of those steps would set off a new round of alarm bells in Egypt and beyond.
But if Morsi means to put the Brotherhood in the driver’s seat by the time those alarm bells ring the fire will have reduced the edifice of Egyptian democracy to ashes. An article in the Jerusalem Post by a former member of the diplomatic corps thinks the alarm bells should be ringing now.
Morsy now holds dictatorial powers surpassing by far those of erstwhile president Hosni Mubarak. They include direct supervision of the all-important drafting of the constitution; he can dismiss the Constituent Assembly if he is not satisfied with its progress and appoint new members tasked with having a text ready within three months. The constitution will then be submitted to the people for approval by referendum and new parliamentary elections will follow.
Under Morsy’s “guidance,” the constitution will be resolutely Islamic and the new laws will follow the Shari’a; already the (disbanded) parliament had started discussing lowering the marriage age for girls and introducing corporal punishment….
The new state of affairs does not bode well for the relations between Egypt and Israel. According to a number of reports in mainstream Egyptian media, Morsy has decided to limit relations to the strict minimum and vigorously prevent any manifestation of normalization. Though military dialogue will go on, especially concerning the long border between the two countries and the security situation, Israeli representatives should not expect a warm welcome from their new counterparts.
Though Egypt will strive to maintain good relations with the United States in order to continue receiving impressive sums in military and other aid, it is turning more and more to Arab countries for help. Already the emir of Qatar has deposited $2 billion in Egyptian coffers, and Saudi Arabia did the same a few weeks ago. Libya may do this as well.
Gaza will remain Morsy’s main stumbling block, and he will do his utmost to persuade Hamas to tighten its control and prevent further attacks in the Sinai Peninsula, to what effect is not clear.
Too many people are making money smuggling arms and ammunition.
But nothing is ringing in the State Department fire station. And the lack of reaction from official Washington puzzles him.
In short, Morsy’s Egypt is a new country, with a new religious agenda that it is eager to implement. What is strange is that neither the United States nor the other Western powers appear worried.
One wonders when the penny will drop.
But maybe that is the wrong metaphor. We should be waiting for the next act to begin.
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if you stage a “soft coup” are you still taking over the government?
I dunno. Let’s ask Obama, who has staged the softest coup d’etat in history. Why, we practically handed it to him on a platter festooned with George Bush’s unused veto pen.
[I live in Virginia, I lie to pollsters]
Morsi’s timeline ends Nov. 6, regardless of outcome. If GOP, one hopes his military aid is cut off, among other things. With O, he can be sure he will be dumped as no longer needed for re-election. Jarrett is our actual president and, if re-elected, will favor Iran over Egypt.
Morsi needs, therefore, to consolidate prior to US decision time. Then he will pivot his policy to get max US financial aid to deal with his balance of payments by theft deficit. Then he will attack Israel.
Duh
ta
“It would be as likely for a President to to stage a “soft coup” in to share power as it would be for robber to stick up a bank so that he could give the money away.”
Oh, Wretchard,you just don’t get it. Of course he would, just like Robin Hood. Everyone in the State Department knows that the good guys (Morsi is one, right?) steal from the rich and give to the poor. Surely he is nothing like that evil nasty old Mubarak. Morsi just wants to get the power so he can give it…I mean, share it…no, protect it for the people. He would never keep power just for himself…and his cronies…and the MB…
“if Egypt is to move beyond the stagnant authoritarianism of the Mubarak years”
Soon to be known as “The good old days.”
That is the Liberal fantasy. My TV is infested with ads for a show called “Leverage” where master criminals turn into Robin Hoods who take down greedy bad guys and then give the money to the deserving poor. I much preferred the relative honesty of the Socialist GB Shaw. His Dustman Alfred P. Doolittle boasted of being one of the “Undeserving Poor” and of his determination to remain more undeserving and more thirsty than any of the Deserving Poor who milked three charities at a time. The most progressive thing about the modern Progressives is their accelerating infantilism.
Egypt will resemble a bloodbath beyond the imagination of Cecile B DeMille. I expect the Aswan Dam to get blown as the mobs butcher the Copts. Hundreds of thousands may flee into the deserts, where they will vanish. Israel may take the opportunity to clean out Gaza.
Egypt will erupt into uncontrollable violence as the masses starve without US wheat donation. Leftest coups are all the same; we just haven’t seen a takedown of the US military YET.
Pass the popcorn and ammunition.
One wonders when the penny will drop.
There’s the rub. According to Sunni metaphysics (or lack thereof) the penny may drop to the earth, go straight up, or remain permanently suspended in midair. There is no natural law of gravity and what the penny does depends only on the will of Allah. That pennies do drop every time rather than fly away is only an observable “habit” of Allah that could change at any time.
Since Egypt is an overwhelmingly Sunni Muslim country under the leadership of the MB it must go full tilt on Sharia because there is literally no reality except as has been written in the Koran or the sayings and biographies of Mohammed.
From the most recent year for which data is available about 9,000 books (majority religious) were published in Egypt. In contrast, Israel published about 7,000 books with 10% of the population. Wikipedia
All of which sets up the amusing juxtaposition of the reality-is-what-I-say-it-is Washington crowd tripping over their tongues explaining the actions of the reality-is-what-Muhammad-says-it-is crowd in Cairo. Exactly how does this advance human flourishing or make the world a bit safer to live in?
The Mayan Calendar is looking more and more correct, World Upheaval by Dec 21! I sure Hope the Mitt/Paul take over plan is a whole lot better thought out then the BH0 plan was… BH0 is handing a far worse Internal and External situation off to Mitt and Paul then he got from George!
Cluck, Cluck, the sky is falling, the sky is falling….
“Mr. Morsi also must learn to live with a certain amount of criticism.”
LOL…good one Washington Post. I notice just how well journalist take criticism in this country. Journalist sound like a bunch of fat 50 year olds sitting in the stands of a midget football game stuffing their face while yelling at 8 years they need to block/run/kick/tackle better.
My only question for Morsi is can he wrest power from the Muslim Brotherhood or will they simply install who they want once they get the military out of the way?
How does the sacking of Tantawi compare to the swapping of Panetta and Petraeus? Just asking.
“With O, he can be sure he will be dumped as no longer needed for re-election.”
How can you say that? Buraq is probably most pleased, along with his keeper Valerie. It’s as if the “Arab Spring” was meant all along to end up with the MB, Al Qaeda et al, in power. Only the incompetent Liberal dupes thought otherwise.
The silence at State is deafening. Either they wanted this all along, or they don’t want to draw attention to another of their horrendous mistakes.
How do you lead from behind with a dictatorship? Or is that just another new spin on the old word ‘capitulation”.
I’m looking for the trend line to start inching up. I lie to pollsters might be on to something. Keep the left fat dumb and happy. That will reduce turnout. The Right votes because it’s their duty. The Left votes because they are forced to. Duty is always a stronger goad then the lash.
I had a good laugh this weekend. My Brother and sister-in-law raise rabbits. Silver Fox rabbits, so called because of their fur. The original ‘fuzzy bunny’. Rabbits are not much smarter then the lettuce they eat. They just lay around eating all day. Don’t even twitch when you pick up the rabbit next to them and wring it’s neck. What tickled my funny bone was they named the cages the rabbits are kept in “New York Times” and “Washington Post”. Engraved Brass plates. Laughed so hard I got a stitch in my side.
Down with Putin. Support Pussy Riot.
Their new defense minister is a Sisi? That can’t end well.
But isn’t it the Sunni Islam that is supposed to have a modernist streak, as in the late lamented but mostly secular Saddam W. Hussein? It’s the royalist superstitious Shia who are supposed to be the extremists. Except of course for the Saudi Salafi Sunni … oh it’s so complicated.
“He promised in a televised address on Sunday not to “narrow freedoms,” a pledge he must uphold at all costs if Egypt is to move beyond the stagnant authoritarianism of the Mubarak years.”
Televised from the Al-Azhar mosque. ’nuff said…
“Hundreds of Christians fled their village after being attacked by their Muslim neighbors.” Dashur, Egypt
Government response? None.
But it didn’t “happen” because the State Department, although required by law to do so, no longer tracks and reports religious persecutions at the hand of Muslims.
It is interesting to see how often the Washington Post uses the word “must” in its editorial. When you read “Morsi must moderate…”, you might think they’re just going for the alliteration. Ditto for “Morsi must avoid.” Maybe Morsi must just sounds good. Then they hit you with “He must respect…!” No alliteration there. Could it be they really are telling the guy what to do? Do they answer to the name Allah?
How many divisions does the Washington Post command? All of them, I guess.
‘According to Sunni metaphysics (or lack thereof) the penny may drop to the earth, go straight up, or remain permanently suspended in midair. There is no natural law of gravity and what the penny does depends only on the will of Allah. That pennies do drop every time rather than fly away is only an observable “habit” of Allah that could change at any time.’
God walked on water — unlikely, but true.
Immanuel Velikovsky wrote unusual theories about gravity, for example that it could have properties similar to electricity. Imagine each orbit adding a gravitational “charge” to a capacitor inside the sun. The capacitor can only take so many orbits, then it discharges so that the planets realign into new orbital states. The result would be very bad for us – total death.
Velikovsky was trying to explain events in Earth’s ancient history. Note that his actual training was in psychiatry. Don’t let it prejudice you though, he was a very smart man.
Why do newspapers like the Post write editorials like the one quoted here? Do they really believe that the leaders they address will actually heed their advice? Do the editorial writers really believe they have that much clout? What is the purpose of this hectoring nonsense?
Egypt is on its way to becoming a second Pakistan, only poorer and less efficient. Expect a Sharia-based kleptocracy, run mostly through corrupt MB bureaucrats backed by a military whose main purpose is to sponsor terrorism against those on its death list. And guess which neighboring country gets to play the role of India in this tragic farce?
There is a story from Australia (supposedly true) that’s been around the block a few times. It demonstrates how someone who believes the conventional narrative can totally misinterpret the events happening before his very eyes.
Recently a routine Police patrol car parked outside a local neighbourhood pub late in the evening. The officer noticed a man (Luke Sandery) leaving the bar so intoxicated that he could barely walk.
The man stumbled around the car park for a few minutes, with the officer quietly observing. After what seemed an eternity and trying his keys on five vehicles.. The man managed to find his car, which he fell into. He was there for a few minutes as a number of other patrons left the bar and drove off. Finally he started the car, switched the wipers on and off (it was a fine dry night). Then flicked the indicators on, then off, tooted the horn and then switched on the lights.
He moved the vehicle forward a few metres, reversed a little and then remained stationary for a few more minutes as some more vehicles left. At last he pulled out of the car park and started to drive slowly down the road. The Police officer, having patiently waited all this time, now started up the patrol car, put on the flashing lights, pulled the man over and carried out a breathalyser test.
To his amazement the breathalyser indicated no evidence of the man’s intoxication.
The Police officer said “I’ll have to ask you to accompany me to the Police station – this breathalyser equipment must be broken.”
“I doubt it,” said the man, “tonight I’m the designated decoy”…
The policeman doesn’t moonlight at the Washington Post does he?
as a 5th generation Hawaii inhabitant – and thus knowing of the 442nd – it is odd to see them form a Democrat Party Mafia – which now rules, and that is the proper word, this State.
Yet, they have —
How does one explain this — how does one deal with this —
Many ignore Hawaii, and its History – an easy thing to do – perhaps we shouldn’t –
History, is interesting, and we can learn from it.
Why does the WaPo write such editorials?
Newspapers write things to get people to buy them. Although no one “bought” this particular episode of the WaPo, it is the most current rationalization that their regular readers were waiting for. It reassures them that “all is right” in their world.
Like many bloggers floating about the Internet, the editorial page writers for newspapers write editorials to rationalize the events of the day, and any actual particular knowledge of an event or a topic is just a coincidence. I like to read Spengler at the East Asia Times, but he’s wrong on a lot of occasions.
The WaPo writers appear to know something with respect to their regular readers, but bring in a cold objective viewpoint with a different set of facts, and the comfy editorial rationalization falls to pieces.
The correct answer is that some people actually get lucky and make a lucky guess and can therefore appear to be “right” once in a while, and these people are frequently called “wise men”.
The thing is, nobody knows what is going to happen in Egypt. Anybody who is particularly honest and knows a few basic facts about Egypt can draw a crude outline of what will probably happen in the next few years.
Morsi is consolidating power. He will fill the ranks of the military with politically reliable officers, not necessarily dependent on their competence. Politcally reliabel to the Muslim Brotherhood. He will eventually get the result that most Arab rulers get from their Armies; it will look good but probably fall on its face if real combat ever arrives. The purpose of the army in most Arab states is to keep the domestic peace, keeping the populace in line.
Egypt is pretty low in literacy, despite the declamations of some with a higher education. They can be ruled for decades by a moderately incompetent dictatorship, whether it was Mubarak, Nasser or Morsi (in the future).
Israel will continue to be a propaganda target, but only a real fool in Cairo will actually start a war. They will forever threaten to “erase Israel from history”, but I truly doubt a real symetrical state of war will ever break out. To keep the enthusiastic busy, I’m sure that the Islamist government of Egypt will encourage a low intensity border conflict, forever promising “liberation” of “Palestine”, but never main force army elements (which will be needed to keep the domestic peace).
I would suggest that folks try to find an Austin Bay column of a few months back.
In it COL Bay predicts that it will take some decades before Egypt ever settles down. Good read I would say. Give it a try.
And I would add that if Bay’s premise is correct, we will shape Egyptian future
to a stable asset IF we clean up our act at home and adhere to free market, limited government domestic principles. Why? As we go so go international logistics. And logistics always wind up weighing more heavily than ideology or theology either. WE got us a fighting chance after all.
Al Jin: Egypt is on its way to becoming a second Pakistan, only poorer and less efficient. Expect a Sharia-based kleptocracy, run mostly through corrupt MB bureaucrats backed by a military whose main purpose is to sponsor terrorism against those on its death list. And guess which neighboring country gets to play the role of India in this tragic farce?
Ding, Ding, Ding, Give this man or woman a prize! Righto. I think the apt metaphor is either Paki or Lebanon. Take your pick.
Dave: And I would add that if Bay’s premise is correct, we will shape Egyptian future
to a stable asset IF we clean up our act at home and adhere to free market, limited government domestic principles.
Yep. That and carry a really big stick. And use it once a while on the deserving.
#2 I Lie To Pollsters: good one. I tend to agree. Egypt is just about of money, and therefore it is just about out of food. My LWO (Lib World Order) friends contend that we will keep sending grain and gold to Egypt, but I don’t see it. November 6 is likely to be a key date. Soon thereafter Morsi will face the ultimate reality –never mind suspended pennies– of 95 million starving citizens. What will he do?
I think he’ll do what any rational person would do. He will raise the cost of inaction by others, sufficiently high that it will be cheaper to bail him out than not. What will raise that cost? In a quick, obvious and significant way?
Starting a war is a good first guess.
I, too, was struck by the rediculous and peculiar tone of that Post editorial.
I don’t know a single liberal who is not self-aggrandizing, condescending, and also as delusional as the day is long when it comes to history, politics, economics, and human nature.
This editorial is a case in point. The Post is insisting it’s still in charge, that nothing has changed, even though the U.S.S. Liberalism has hit an iceburg and the world it lives in is soon to be underwater.
I think the key to administration policy is social justice, which in the liberal’s lexicon means revenge. Here at home and in the lands that were ruined by the strongmen put in place by the evil colonialists. The goal is simple: out with the old, post-colonial powers abroad, and let the oppressed have their way.
Here, it’s to be the same. It will take a miracle to prevent a civil war of some sort now, no matter who wins the U.S. presidency. All the stuff about “keeping you in chains” is meant to get the oppressed angry, so they tear things apart by either rising up and giving us four more years of reparations at home or by tearing things apart when they don’t get their way, which has to happen eventually.
Never forget, liberalism is a tacit form of nihilism, narcissistic self-inflation that always lead to overt nihilism over time. That is a law of nature, as old as the hills.
21. David wrote: ‘I like to read Spengler at the East Asia Times, but he’s wrong on a lot of occasions.’
Are you aware that ‘Spengler’ is David P. Goldman, who also is listed as a columnist for Pajamas Media? (http://pjmedia.com/spengler/)
@oMan
As far as starting a war to get bailed out that easily could backfire. What happens if the harbors get mined? More importantly the leadership may very well be seen as a liability. Allow the mobs to sate their hate befor sending the aid.