Families of Events
You’ve heard of the European Union. What about the Eurasian Union? The Prague Post reports that Vladimir Putin wants the EU to talk to his own supra-national organization.
While speculation in the lead-up to the June 4 European Union-Russia summit focused on whether EU leaders would pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin to act in war-torn Syria, the meeting remained focused on strengthening economic ties between the two key trading partners.
Held in St. Petersburg, it was the first such gathering since Putin returned to the presidency last month. European Council President Herman Van Rompuy and European Commission President José Manuel Barroso represented the EU, and Putin used the opportunity to press for what he called a “Eurasian Union.”
“We are convinced that the setting up of the Customs Union, of the Common Economic Space, and in the future, possibly, of the Eurasian economic union, is fully compatible with the tasks of enhancing cooperation between Russia and the European Union,” he said.
Talk to the Eurasian Union, not Russia, Putin said, as he hosted Presidents Rompuy and Barroso of EU. “Russia has surrendered national competence to a supra-national body,” Putin said. This probably means the opposite: that a number of nations have surrendered their national competence to Putin.
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin made it clear that his country cannot advance negotiations on a new basic treaty with the EU, unless Brussels formalises relations with the so-called “Common Economic Space” – its Customs Union with Belarus and Kazakhstan.
Direct talks are needed between representatives of the EU and the Common Economic Space, because on a range of questions Russia has surrendered national competence to a supra-national body, Putin said at the final press conference of the EU-Russia summit yesterday (4 June) in St. Petersburg.
But diplomacy runs on fiction and the toothless duo of Presidents returned to a Brussels with an ever declining financial base but with the prospect of more authority — ultimately not theirs but on loan from Berlin.
The Telegraph reports that Germany has refused to hand out any more funds to the fast sinking latin countries unless they agree to control from the center. “Germany’s central bank has shot down EU proposals for a European banking union, warning categorically that eurozone liabilities cannot be shared without a fundamental shift towards fiscal and political union.” What that exactly means has now been spelled out.
The Chancellor said countries must be willing to give up sovereignty to an EU banking supervisor for “specific purposes”. This is not the same as a banking union. It is limited to financial policing — either beefing up the EBA’s existing powers or switching the oversight role to the European Central Bank …
“We can’t take part in things that lead us into an even deeper disaster,” she said. “We want more Europe, but a Europe in which joint liability and joint control go hand in hand. What is not acceptable is shared liability and control remaining in national hands.”
That means Barroso and Rompuy are soon to be promoted to the overlords of bankrupt countries. But they will be flunkies with respect to the German chancellor. This makes the prospect of the Eurasian Union in dialog with EU a tad disturbing? It looks an awful lot like Berlin talking to the Kremlin. Which is not a nice thought. It would be ironic if the European project, which was created to prevent just such a scenario should not become the mechanism to facilitate exactly that.
But does Spain have much choice? “Spanish 10-year bond yields jump past 6.8pc, a 13-year high, as German Chancellor Angela Merkel warns that any funds for the country will be tied to reforms of its banking sector.” Without a lifeline they are sunk. Any port in a storm and the only one with a port open is Germany.
The EU leadership is desperate, argues Jose Guardia. As desperate as Spain. He writes that Madrid and Brussels agreed to the Spanish bailout because they are afraid that Greece will blow up the European project outright. But in reality nobody even knows just how much money Spain will eventually need. “It all shows that this bailout was agreed in haste especially because the international community wants to contain the possible damage of an anti-euro party win in Greece next Sunday.”
In that regard, the Spanish bank bailout announcement was a firewall, announced when it only was a proposal: it was basically saying that both Spain and the Eurozone agreed that Spain would ask for it, but it wasn’t a bailout in itself yet. That will happen after the two independent auditors that Spain hired to assess the financing needs of the Spanish banking system deliver their reports next week. Only then the actual figures on interest, maturity and so forth will be decided.
People are lending each other money — and taking it — not in the spirit of prosperous commerce but out of desperation. Of course Russia is mostly broke itself. So too soon will Berlin says Forbes’s Oliver Pursche, who argues that the financial flames are now licking at the German border.
Should Germany’s economy start to contract, and there are early signs that it is, I believe there is a risk that crisis in Europe could deepen and permeate through the globe. Moreover, should Germany slip into a recession, I believe that the political climate will turn sour and make any check writing by Germany to save Greece or others an almost impossible task.
As we approach Greek elections on June 17, the risks of more turmoil will likely increase, after all there are only two potential outcomes to the election. Either, a moderate and sensible group of parties wins enough votes to form a coalition, or the radical left, led by Mr. Tsipras wins.
In the event that early polls prove correct and the left wins, markets are likely to react harshly. This combined with some weakening data in Germany–the “check book” of Europe–is reason to become more defensive.
That would be all everyone needs. Everyone broke in a world awash with grifter, empire building politicians. History, said Mark Twain, “never repeats itself, but it rhymes”. One reason it rhymes is that geopolitical realities are often quite persistent. Geography and national character change but slowly.
And it rhymes quite malevolently. The resemblance between current events with the unlamented past was underscored by Barry Rubin, who wrote that the “the Syrian civil war is the Spanish Civil War of our time”.
In several respects, the Syrian civil war is the Spanish Civil War of our time. It is an exhibition match between two ideological rivals—Shia Islamism and Sunni Islamism—that both want totalitarian dictatorship but cannot co-exist. It is a testing ground for the conflicts to come. Yet it is not a simple battle of good against evil. The Syrian regime is certainly evil, but the rebels are a mixed bag who also include evil forces. It is only the best elements among them that deserve the outside world’s support, help to defeat those who want repressive dictatorship on both the enemy side and on their own side as well.
Yet the democratic outside world is, for all practical purposes, standing passive. The Iranian regime is helping one side with huge amounts of money and arms, as Nazi Germany did for the Franco forces; the Turkish regime and the Saudis are helping the other side a bit, but giving disproportionate assistance to the Muslim Brotherhood, like the USSR gave to the Communists in Spain. Indeed, U.S. policy is aiding the Brotherhood, too.
One can thank God that there’s no longer a Nazi Germany nor a USSR. Or that European armies are so old that the worst problem of the Belgian army is lumbago.
Maybe the democratic world can afford to idle passively watching armies hobble toward each other in their walkers or gaze at one group of Syrians blast the other group of Syrians. If there are any perils left in the world, there’s always Herman von Rompuy, Barroso in Brussels, Nick Clegg and David Cameron in Britain left to face them. And Barack Obama, who was recently told by a TV reporter that he would be a big hit on American idol.
That’s about their speed. Richard Cohen at the Washington Post notes that while the President has lost the veneer of deniabilty with regards intelligence leaks that have been compromising US assets at every turn at least he’s not Richard Nixon. Nor one might add, Scooter Libby.
The New York Times, which broke this particular story, said it had interviewed “three dozen of [Obama’s] current and former advisers,” which suggests the sort of mass law-breaking not seen since Richard Nixon took out after commies, liberals, conservationists, antiwar protesters, Jews and, of course, leakers.
It’s told as a big joke. And maybe it is.When a liberal wants to scare his kids he yells “Nixon! Nixon!”
But the accidental resemblances of the past can’t but help spread a sense of foreboding. The Western leadership has lived so constantly in security that the worst it fears is facing a hostile talk show host and declining polls. What are they really fit for if the SHTF? If the current recession has been openly compared to the Great Depression can one ask the logical corollary: are we comparable to the Greatest Generation? We might be better or worse. But it won’t be fun finding out. It would have been better not to have squandered the heritage.
Belmont Commenters
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I wonder why Pootie is backing Assad? Why not pick a Colonel, have the 1st Directorate wet work specialists deal with the Assad family and have their tame Colonel take over? After all, that is how the Assads got the job in the first place. Not as photogenic as a JDAM but much cheaper. Always keep in mind that as broke as America is, most everybody else is worse off. Relative to other nations the USA is gaining economic strength. IIRC, the USA uses 20% of the world’s resources to produce about 25% of the world’s wealth. I expect that to be over 30 by the end of Romney’s first term.
Q: What are they really fit for if the SHTF?
–
Have you ever been close to tragedy
Or been close to folks who have
Have you ever felt a pain so powerful
So heavy you collapse
I’ve never had to knock on wood
But I know someone who has
Which makes me wonder if I could
It makes me wonder if
I’ve never had to knock on wood
And I’m glad I haven’t yet
Because I’m sure it isn’t good
that’s the impression that I get.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KeGvmybaLq8
–
A: Probably nothing, but hopefully others can step up.
Maybe we’re burning off a lot of bad kharma with this Obambus dude.
–
have you ever had the odds stacked up so high
You need a strength most don’t possess
Or has it ever come down to do or die
You’ve got to rise above the rest
I’ve never had to knock on wood
But I know someone who has
Which makes me wonder if I could
It makes me wonder if
I’ve never had to knock on wood
And I’m glad I haven’t yet
Because I’m sure it isn’t good
that’s the impression that I get.
“are we comparable to the Greatest Generation? We might be better or worse. But it won’t be fun finding out. It would have been better not to have squandered the heritage”.
There were many sorrows before Narsil could be reforged as Andúril.
Haven’t we always been at war with Eurasia?
They don’t know what the janitor knows. You can’t “make it up on volume.”
Our challenges are different that the Greatest Generation, less daunting in physical terms but more challenging mentally for that very reason. We can’t shoot our way out of a problem; just ask George Zimmerman and his wife.
For example today on Fox news was a couple of items. One was that in NYC they propose to make it illegal to sell sugary drinks in sizes 16 oz and larger.
And in Richmond, CA there is a proposal to add 25 cents onto the price of every soft drink. An earnest young black woman explained that you would not notice the added cost but the extra tax could be used to fund anti-obesity programs. An older black man on the city council said “I oppose it because for one thing not one dime will ever go to prevent obesity.” And he is right. There is little doubt that the extra tax would go to hire earnest young black women who otherwise would not be able to find a job because of what they chose to take in college. And the fact that their efforts caused not one person to shed a single pound would be used as justification to expand the program. “We need 50 cents tax on each drink. And make it $1.00 and we’ll also make sure the bullet trains finally run on time.”
This is the face of fascism for our generation. They pretty much have dropped the goose stepping and snazzy black uniforms because that alarms people – and also gets them laughed at. And Wretchard explained a way to deal with it, as he did in his hypothetical discussion between Wilson and O’Brian out of 1984, “I can shut you right down, O’Brian, because I won’t pay my taxes. You’re already out of money. What happens when your revenue to fund your massive government is even less?”
Maybe we won’t be rolling Lockheed Hudsons across the border with Canada to circumvent the Neutrality Act but instead smuggling Cokes into California and New York to make sure that Big Government dies on the vine. Maybe we won’t be busting down the gates of concentration camps in Europe but building detention camps over here so we’ll have a place to put the OWS, the Old Left, union thugs, the illegal aliens, and lots of people from the Justice Department.
It’s gonna be harder because it’s gonna be different. That’s Hope and Change for you. I’d rather be flying those Hudsons to Buffalo, but we have our own challenges.
Putin wants a fre market union from vladivostok to Lisbone?
yes of course for Gasprom
http://mecanoblog.wordpress.com/2012/05/15/la-syrie-centre-de-la-guerre-du-gaz-au-proche-orient/
With Russia’s sub-replacement birthrate and shrinking population, Putin is trying to keep Russia from becoming a suburb of China. He’s working with what he knows – the old USSR renamed to something without the stigma. But this time Russia won’t be the star player. Can’t say that I blame Putin – what’s a wannabe dictator to do nowadays?
Still blaming Bush? Seriously? – http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=a4nvhAZ0vr0
“The [German] Chancellor said countries must be willing to give up sovereignty to an EU banking supervisor for ‘specific purposes.’” In the PIIGS countries, sovereigns own all the antiquities found in the ground and the museums, and exert strong control over cultural property in private hands. If the EU banking supervisor exerts sovereignty for cultural property purposes, assembling a Cultural Reserve Bank and its corresponding CRB Museum will be quite straightforward. The PIIGS countries may be cash poor, but their long, long histories have left them asset rich. Their populations may be declining, but the few inheritors end up concentrating the heirlooms of many ancestors. If they want to see their supranational treasures in person, they can take a trip to the supranational CRB museum. Since the Germans will take their returns in capital appreciation instead of capital income, PIIGS citizens, free of debt service, ought to be able to save up for that trip to the new cultural capital.
As an aside, it bears notice that the few inheritors not only concentrate antiquities and artworks, specimens and manuscripts. They also benefit from the expanding technological potential that comes from recombining proven technologies and innovations into better products, services and processes. Decline is possible, but not inevitable. If the PIIGS countries can satisfy their creditors by transferring assets, that buys time for more technological progress to keep poverty at bay and preserve middle classes.
re: trade unions (and geography)
Seem so industrial-age to me. If a country has access to a port (or treaty-protected access to a port) that has sea-going access – the cost of shipping an incremental ton (of non-perishables) anywhere in the world is approaching zero now that standardized containers, container handling, and unified & optimized train-truck transportation has matured. Energy pipelines and water supplies are a bit different, but that’s nowhere near enough to anchor economic unions around (more in the domain of treaties, esp. given energy has been – will be used as a weapon).
So trade-unions can be arbitrary groups of like-minded countries who share the same values. Which often means common legal frameworks, contracts, adjudication, taxes, regulation, etc – much more than geography / (lack of) distance.
Granted, it still costs me more to ship a ton from Paris to Nice France than from Seattle to Miami – Europe never really learned that you can optimize to ship frieght or people with trains but not both, but that’s an incountry problem, a burden on their individual economy and competitiveness, not a reason to constrain trade-unions by geography.