Moving to a Break
US walks out of Pakistan supply route talks.
United States negotiators have quit talks in Pakistan after failing to reach a deal to reopen a supply route to NATO troops in Afghanistan. … Pentagon spokesman George Little said negotiations had been going on for about six weeks but said: “The decision was reached to bring the team home for a short period of time.”
US ‘losing patience’ with Pakistan. “United States defence secretary Leon Panetta says his country is reaching the limits of its patience with Pakistan because of the safe havens the country offers to insurgents in neighbouring Afghanistan.”
CIA gets nod to step up drone strikes in Pakistan. “The U.S., frustrated over Pakistan’s refusal to crack down on local militants who cross into Afghanistan, is approving strikes that it might have vetoed before.”
Tim Roemer, a former U.S. representative from Indiana, served as the U.S. ambassador to India from 2009 to June 2011, writes this in the Washington Post:
Security cooperation has never been better. The United States and India share unprecedented amounts of highly sensitive intelligence and have started a homeland security dialogue; the United States has joined in more combined defense exercises with India than with any other ally. Defense sales are at record levels. We also have historic new collaboration on nuclear nonproliferation issues.
But not all is sweetness and light. There are still powerful interests which are competing for primacy in the determination of policy. There’s the Iran track. “The third U.S.-India strategic dialogue gets under way in Washington this week as the Obama administration considers imposing sanctions on the South Asian nation for importing oil from Iran. The United States wants India to end its dependence on Iranian oil and train Afghan security forces as the U.S. seeks to deepen its relationship with a nation it considers a linchpin of its new defense strategy in the Asia-Pacific region.”
And there’s the Greenie track. “President Obama is quoted in a New Yorker column by hooked-in journalist Ryan Lizza as believing the most important issue to address in his second term would be climate change.
“Obama has an ambitious second-term agenda, which, at least in broad ways, his campaign is beginning to highlight. The President has said that the most important policy he could address in his second term is climate change (italics mine), one of the few issues that he thinks could fundamentally improve the world decades from now. He also is concerned with containing nuclear proliferation.”
Taken together the developments suggest that two poles are tugging at US policy. The first attractor is the obvious need to pivot away from Pakistan, the likely origin of the September 11 attacks. The second attractor is the deep seated need to include “green energy” and “zero nuclear weapons” into the policy mix. The administration is faced two breakout nations: Pakistan and Iran and is struggling to evolve a coherent policy to deal with both.
In retrospect the fatal moment for the administration came when the SEALs hit Osama bin Laden just a few hundred yards from the Pakistani military academy. From that point events unrolled with a fatal inevitability. The President was caught between his desire to boast — and gain political domestic points — while simultaneously trying to mollify the enemies. Nothing exemplified this conflict more than the poor Pakistani doctor who found Osama bin Laden. As Lee Smith put it:
To craft a story about a heroic president and his leading part in American history, the administration rolled out the red carpet for moviemakers like Hurt Locker director Kathryn Bigelow, and gorged the working press with details. It was this information that disclosed the role of a local doctor whose efforts on behalf of an American clandestine operation earned him a 33-year sentence in a Pakistani prison.
That physician is not the only casualty of the White House’s vanity. The administration boasted of a mole who had infiltrated Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and helped thwart an attack against the United States. The man was working for British and Saudi intelligence and details of his role not only damaged the ongoing operations of allied intelligence services, but also put the lives of the agent and others at risk.
Who knows how the information disclosed in the Times’s recent Stuxnet story may come back to harm our citizens and interests, or our ally Israel’s? But the message broadcast to friends, and potential friends, is clear enough. If you fail in your dangerous mission, you may die. If you succeed, you may earn a supporting role in the Obama reelection campaign.
The result was that he neither mollified the hostiles nor impressed the friendlies. Like a man who tries to have it both ways he is winding up having neither. Still he’s better off than the Pakistani doctor, whose attendance at the next Oscars is doubtful.
Historians may look back on this period as a time when nations drifted to war, not for reasons of policy, but to produce a Hollywood blockbuster. In 3D too. For now the Administration’s position is hemaphroditic, like a person in the middle of a sex change operation. But the force events will compel clarity simply because there will be no choice. Perhaps the only positive outcome of the debacle in Afghanistan and the Arab Spring is that it is forcing the US policy establishment to face the unpleasant truths, however much it would want to avert its eyes.
There is precious little room to kick the can any further down the road. The era of hard choices has begun.
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In the good old days a Legion would have marched into Macedonia and rearranged the furniture in the throne room. In the good old days a regiment of foot would have politely asked a recalcitrant client to say goodbye to the kitchen staff. Has the world changed? Yes, and not for the better. It is time to understand that not one, not one, Muslim country can be considered a friend. NOT ONE. And we should act accordingly.
Someday soon the can will be so big (like a 55 gallon drum) and the road will be so short (like a blind alley), that there will be no more kicking of the can down that road.
But until then, we dance!
I hope we walked out just ahead of a grenade we threw into the room.
What is scary is that the cowards are in charge. You can tell a coward by the fact that all their arguments against something are fear based. Like the argument that attacking Assad will cause the terrorist groups he supports to go off with chemical weapons. A fear based argument. Hezzabollah already has access to chemical weapons. Assad has more then enough to sterilise the entire ME. So the fear of terrorist doing something they can do anytime they want is used as an argument against effective action to prevent it. I find no logic there. Just cowards paralyzed by fear.
Tell Assad he has 24 hours to leave. After that we hunt him down. Send him file photos of Osama with an extra hole in his head.
Obama needs to act within the law. Go to Congress and ask for a declaration of war against Pakistan. If he gets it, give them a chance to surrender then if they don’t wage war.
If he doesn’t get it, pull out ALL diplos and any other Americans. Tell the public that diplomacy hasn’t worked, Congress won’t allow him to wage war so his hands are tied. Should help his election chances.
Agree 100% with Stoicheion. Obama SHOULD go to Congress, inform them that Pakistan is supporting and enabling terrorists and is therefore engaging in acts of war against the United States, that Pakistan and Islamic terrorists in general have thrust a state of war upon us, and that Congress must declare war and authorize the President to wage it fully, without restraint. Terrorism in its own way is total war, and the only proper response is total war.
This would have many good effects, both at home and abraod, regardless of the outcome. If congress agrees, Obama has a free hand. If congress refuses, Obama can say his hands are tied and he cannot prevent the next 9/11. Either way, let everyone come out in the open and take a stand. No more hiding behind authorizations for the use of force, no more allowing the Left to scream illegal war. Make the war open, make it official, and make it total, in the style and using the methods of World War II.
No more nation building, no more restraint, no more restrictive rules of engagement that do nothing but endanger American GI’s and create a sense of contempt among our enemies. Let the government (and yes, the people) of Pakistan be held accountable for their actions. Let there be mobilization, conscription, carpet bombing, whatever is required to win. And let winning be defined as it was before, in the destruction of the enemies will to fight and ability to wage war.
#6 – BoftP,
I must ask, why? Why engage in a war with Pakistan? What are the goals, what are the costs, where is the purpose?
We can penetrate and kill at our leisure anywhere and any one in the country already. India can be encouraged to pressure them, and be well-armed by us.
Frankly, the government of Pakistan is following one of the precepts from the “Art of War”:
“When your enemy is angry, irritate him.”
The US must NOT fall for it.
Stoi @ 5: “Obama needs to act within the law. Go to Congress and ask for a declaration of war against Pakistan.”
Problem is that Obumble has already lost all his credibility with the thinking part of the American people. If Soetero did that, people would be thinking “Wag the Dog”.
People would think that, even if poor old Barry had had a Road to Damascus type of moment and was sincere. In fact, if he looked sincere, most of us would be certain that the request for a Declaration of War against Pakistan was simply the next page in his campaign book.
Run a perpetual campaign, and everyone is going to think that you are perpetually campaigning.
“Smart diplomacy”
@#8 Excellent observation. There is also the fact that one has only so much political capital. Obama spent all his early on. Spend, spend, spend… in more ways than one. Obama is broke. The USA is broke. Other countries know it and act accordingly. Elections have consequences.
8. Kinuachdrach: Run a perpetual campaign, and everyone is going to think that you are perpetually campaigning.
Obama has one big thing going for him at the voting booth. My neighbor was a staunch conservative and voted straight line Republican until the day he died. Now he votes Democrat.
Pakistan is a country divided between those who try to reason and fanatics.
This pertains both to society in general and the military/intelligence services in particular.
For the moment, neither side can dominate. But if Uncle Sam pulls that troublesome logistical tail out of there, the way seems clear for an Islamaist
coup to take over the whole country. And they are buddy-buddy with the Mad Mullahs of Iran and have over 300 screwdriver-ready nuclear warheads ready to contribute to the jihad and more on the way. Briefcase bombs and radioactive dust there for the asking.
The problem in securing that land route is but secondarily the bad type Pakis. The primary problem(s) are named Obama and (probably) Donilon, the National Security Advisor. In gratifying Teh Won’s re-elective ego, Cloward-Piven is on the way. Remember that C-P requires that perps be those with no sense of consequences to themselves and a lack of caring about others. The above-named miscreants definitely qualify.
There can be no viable solution until a new administration takes over. Just hope and pray the boys can hang on until then.
7. whitehall
Pakistan is an enemy engaged in kinetic energy actions against the USA. ANY reply other then using kinetic energy against them is cowardice. Historically, Responding to war with war is the only way to end a war. Appeasement or even outright surrender just encourages the enemy.
Pakistan is a nuclear armed state. That means it isn’t illegal to nuke them.
The 3rd world needs to learn that you make Uncle Sam angry, Uncle Sam makes you dead. If the little pissant states know where the line is, they will stay on their side of it. Being loved is nice but being feared is critical.
Goal is to demonstrate what happens to nations that support terrorism.
Cost is cheap, no matter what the final number is.
Purpose is to demonstrate that terrorism has a price and nations supporting terrorism will pay that price.
BattleofthePyramids #6; Don’t you dare knock “nation-building” in my presence! The purpose of armed forces is to reduce enemy capabilities
and render them harmless. No tactic that accomplishes that mission is to be denied. And don’t tell me that nation building—–Civic Action to give it its proper name—–does not work. I saw Colonel Carson’s CAP Team Marines in action. No great elites, just run of the mill jarheads. And a somewhat poorer Army effort of the same nature also produced results with run of the mill doggies. And what do you think Sneaky Petes wearing greenie beanies do for a living anyway?
And thanks for giving me the chance to sound off on this matter. Been waiting for the opportunity as a myth seems to have taken over otherwise clear-thinking people.
10. Teresita/smile/
As sly as ever.
7. whitehall – Same reason as with Iran or anywhere. It’s really about technology in bad hands. Even the World Wars were about the same problem: the ever-increasing ability to cause evil by use of tricks, levers, and buttons. Whatever the kill ratio was in ancient times, it’s becoming on the order of millions-to-one individual and his iNuke. Factor in space flight, the ability to nudge asteroids around… perhaps there is no hope but to separate cultures and confound the languages. Tranquil worlds are only possible without progress it seems.
Here’s yet another opportunity for me to suggest Containment, in this case it would be Containing Pakistan. Financial isolation from the West. These Paki’s could certainly count on other Muslims’ help so long as their own murderously in-fighting factions would permit it, but if the West’s banks and markets are seriously off limits, it wouldn’t be long before things inside Pakistan got very restless.
Why do we fool around with such a small entity as Pakistan?…..just because they have a nuclear capability? The Soviets had a nuclear capability with the means of delivering it to America for decades…..anyone remember the Cold War, and the Containment of the huge land mass of the Soviet Union AND China?
If we’re now so enamored of techie stuff that our attention spans have shrunk to near nothing, perhaps we could summon up a young techie to send a Tweet to Rawalpindi saying, in effect….”enough!…get stuffed!”
Maybe they’ll remember enough of their former Brit-slang to get the meaning of that crudity.
This great new expanded drone plinking is simply more of the favored “It’s a crime problem, not a war problem” approach that avoids the need for a real policy.
And that approach enables you to never deal with the fact that you are fighting an ideology and the countries that has embraced it rather than some good kids that have fallen in with a bad crowd. So, just like crime in the ghetto, the problem will never be fixed, and for the same reason.
The best way to handle Pakistan is to make sure a civil war occurs and make sure the side you favor wins. I have little doubt that there are many in Pakistan who strongly oppose what has been going on there, but are not in a position to oppose it. We need to create and support an opposition group there and enable it to take over the country – or barring that, change it into a place where the bread trucks have to have armed escorts.
“12. stoicheion
7. whitehall
Pakistan is an enemy engaged in kinetic energy actions against the USA. ANY reply other then using kinetic energy against them is cowardice. Historically, Responding to war with war is the only way to end a war. Appeasement or even outright surrender just encourages the enemy.
Pakistan is a nuclear armed state. That means it isn’t illegal to nuke them.
The 3rd world needs to learn that you make Uncle Sam angry, Uncle Sam makes you dead. If the little pissant states know where the line is, they will stay on their side of it. Being loved is nice but being feared is critical.
Goal is to demonstrate what happens to nations that support terrorism.
Cost is cheap, no matter what the final number is.
Purpose is to demonstrate that terrorism has a price and nations supporting terrorism will pay that price.”
+1
That says it all. I have nothing to add.
LOL, Teresita. Thank you, I haven’t laughed that hard in a while!
The incredible, uncanny thing about Obama and the leftists is how disconnected they are with reality. In the face of the 2008 financial disaster, what do they do? They create a grandiose new entitlement! ObamaCare. That was the focal point of their energies for almost two years, and they barely passed it in a most underhanded manner against the popular will. That popular will cried out to do something to help the economy, and ObamaCare does nothing but cloud and complicate financing and future tax regimes.
Now Obama claims his biggest challenge for his next term will be global warming. Who is he kidding? He is apparently totally unaware of how daft that sounds, because it does sound daft to anyone who does not inhabit the inner sanctum of the left. It’s an echo chamber pronouncement. And folks thought Newt was crazy over the moon base!
Hardball Dem operatives have got to be cursing under their breath. They’ve got to sell this turkey.
This has emerged as the Obama solution for everything: More teachers, cops, and firemen. And nationalized health care.
The salve! The salve!
What is Syria’s problem? They should spend more on teachers, cops and firemen.
What is the economy’s problem? We should spend more on teachers, cops and firemen.
If we spent more on teachers, cops and firemen, all would be right. The private sector would be right. Voyages to the sun would be but a click away.
@#1: “It is time to understand that not one, not one, Muslim country can be considered a friend. NOT ONE. And we should act accordingly”
Irrelevant, even if correct, and also more of a cri de coeur than a policy.
While it is true that the US may have alliances with some states and groups based on common cultures and ties of blood (“a friend”) other alliances will be based on common interests. For example, KSA has a clear view of the best US policy towards the present regime in Iran (“cut off the head of the snake!”).
Whitehall @7: “When your enemy is angry, irritate him.”
But Obumble and Pakistan are not enemies. They both hate the USA.
Stoicheion @ 12: “ANY reply other then using kinetic energy against them is cowardice.”
There are no cowards in the minds of the players. Obambi is behind enemy lines, bravely Sticking It to the Man; he is right there in the heart of darkness that is the USA. Hillary and her State Dept crowd are bravely turning the other cheek every chance they get, in a long game too sophisticated for mere mortals to understand. Congress-scum who have not declared war in over 60 years think of themselves as realists & pragmatists, ready to reach courageously across the aisle and vote for the hard decisions (before they vote against them); not as cowards. Flag officers grimly hanging on to the upper reaches of that greasy pole see themselves as the real heroes, the ones prepared to swallow any insult so that they can remain at the table, ready to play when their hour eventually comes.
But more to the point — random movement should never be used as a substitute for directed action. What strategic objectives does the US have anywhere in the world? Until we can answer that question, accusations of cowardice are merely a distraction, and declaring war on Pakistan would be evidence of foolhardiness rather than bravery.
s @ 12: Pakistan is an enemy engaged in kinetic energy actions against the USA
Y’know, they probably think they’re being sneaky, somewhere between plausible deniability and beyond a reasonable doubt, but the thing is I don’t care, George Dubya had the right approach, just tell them to stay the f out of the way or we let Allah sort it out. And that was before we found Osama lounging around in their territory.
Actually it’s a bit worse than that, they’re from a culture that just lives, century after century, with low-grade wars against all comers. Denying or admiting it isn’t really an issue in such a culture, it’s rather gauche to ask, the question is worth a stare and a chuckle and a pesh-kabz across your kisser by way of clarification, depending on the setting.
But no doubt Hildabeast is up on all of these fine points of protocol.
Pakistan is a Saudi lab, just as Afghanistan is a Paki colony.
Go to the damn source. Take over or take out the paymasters.
As to Iran, Khomeini was an Arabist Lenin, introducing a Shia form of Wahabbist puritanism- Egypt’s variant are Salafis.
Again, go to the source. Abdullah used 911 to seize the throne, and threatened to collapse our banks if Bush didn’t contain Saddam.
Get the real head of the snake- the Kaaba first, then the Royals who buy legitimacy by sending their trash here. Persia will overthrow their Arabist sepoys soon enough.
Let us stop doing the Saudi’s dirty work for them. They aren’t fighting German Turks or protecting our Army’s fuel supply anymore.
#21 Kinuachdrach
Precisely the point – what is the strategic point of wasting energy on Pakistan? We’ll be out of Afghanstan soon enough, leaving it its disorders. Pakistan can hardly endure as a state as is, much less project anything but minor troubles to its neighbors.
I see no suicide tendencies in the current Paki regime that would call for them bringing down further troubles on themselves. As I noted we have the entire country within assaination range already and a track record with body count.
I suspect we walked away from the negotiating table for Obama’s campaign appearances, like he really wanted to keep a viable logistics trail through the country.
They remain an irritant, not a strategic threat. Their nukes seem more a burden than an asset.
A couple of funny thoughts: The Dems poison the well for aggressive action against terrorism for the GOP but then aggressively kill terrorists (without a trial, wasn’t that taboo just a bit ago?). The GOP is condemned in the court of public opinion for being heartless capitalists around the same time they were castigated as war mongers but I believe A LOT of people would not mind that too much about now. Is it a Ying/Yang deal or a severely dysfunctional family?
Or maybe the liberals are just hypocritical wack-jobs. Yeah, I’m going with the last one.
a @ 23: Go to the damn source. Take over or take out the paymasters.
Works for me.
But the fuse is lit, fracking will destroy the Sauds and the current structure of the middle east within ten years, and it could be five.
… if Facebook doesn’t get them first.
We live in interesting times.
“We’ll be out of Afghanstan soon enough, leaving it its disorders.”
You dream. We will create another 9-11 if we leave the ‘stan.
Well, I’ll either be in Mammoth Springs or Muscle Shoals. Two places the terrs won’t bother with. Where will you be? Avoid any place that offers the basics for a mass casualty event.
alzaebo 23,
“Pakistan is a Saudi lab, just as Afghanistan is a Paki colony.”
Back in the day there were gradations of competence for bad guys. Russian military pilots flew North Korean planes. North Korean pilots flew planes with Egyptian markings. Egyptian pilots flew in the uniform and planes of Libya. Libyan pilots staffed the Air Force of Chad, which had no working aircraft. The overall winners of the charade were the Soviets, who sold the equipment, whatever its serviceability, misused across all parties.
bftp @ 29: … Libyan pilots staffed the Air Force of Chad, which had no working aircraft.
Maybe so, but this does NOT constitute proof that Obambus was born in Chad.
As I have said before, it is pointless to pursue a war in Afghanistan when the people we are at war against have a proximate safe zone in Pakistan. No matter what we do the infection will return so long as Pakistan is a refuge.
And that war is an industry for the Pakistanis. So long as it makes money for them they have no incentive to let it ever stop.
And we do have the power to put incredible pressure upon Pakistan. Most of their high tech military equipment comes from the US. Lets see how long they can maintain their air force without parts from the US. And the non-military aid? That’s not peanuts either. What if it was to stop? And there are a lot of Paki nationals in the US who send money back to their relatives in Pakistan. What would happen if Pakistani citizens were declared to be no longer able to reside in the US?
No Pakistan–we’ll give you a list of people we want dead. Consequences will follow if they aren’t within the time frame given. Hell- the people giving excuses for not getting results might be added to the list. We make no promises but we absolutely insist that our demands be met.
The US still has the power to change the world. The only question is will we use it?
Re. #20 – Well, Saudi Arabia is quite right. But have they thought that through? For the logical end to that train of thought is indeed to cut off the head of the snake – which means two closely spaced, roughly spherical (at least initially) areas of highly ionised plasma in Saudi Arabia.
Tolkein quote again:
One for the Dark Lord on his dark throne
In the Land of Mordor where the Shadows lie.
One Ring to rule them all, One Ring to find them,
One Ring to bring them all and in the darkness bind them
In the Land of Mordor where the Shadows lie.
Time to destroy the Ring, or in our case the Stone. And it would take half an hour, not a year.
Kin @ 21. I was with all the way until that sentence about the Paki’s.
Pakistan has consistently over a long period of time attacked American interests. When a country does that, we must respond, whether it is Pakistan, Iran and Saudi Arabia. If you let such behavior fester without consequence, it will only grow and cause you greater grief.
We tried the nation building thing. We refused to impose our will, and failed as a result. Until we are ready to do nation building the right way, bombing the crap out of someone from afar , and other relatively inexpensive but effective, in men and treasure , ways of warfare suits me just fine. Humanitarian niceties be damned.
The facts are getting clear.
Going on the attack to give cover during a retreat is a fairly standard tactic. Our “NATO ally” Pakistan has not opened vital supply routes and probably will not. 0bama has broken off talks with Pakistan. Further, 0bama is moving 3,000 troops to Africa according to the Army Times:
A brigade will deploy to Africa next year in a pilot program… “As far as our mission goes, it’s uncharted territory,” Hogg said from his headquarters…
http://www.armytimes.com/news/2012/06/army-3000-soldiers-serve-in-africa-next-year-060812/
Add, the fact that 0bama’s top security adviser Tom Donilon is leaking sensitive secrets to score political points; one can only conclude that 0bama has decided the war is lost – or is trying to lose the war as quickly as possible.
W…
The can is wired to a ‘teller’ mine…
0bama is in the market for a new ‘point’ man.
I find myself in the weird position of witnessing events unfolding true to my desires: I’ve long advocated cutting off the Paki addiction — and of scaling down, down, down the Quango/NGOs operating in Afghanistan.
Ledeen laments that 500 girls schools have closed this season…. I can only say, hear, hear!
In a land without educated adults — it’s the cart before the horse to educate girls when daddy can’t read. Beyond that, literate girls have NEGATIVE marriage value there.
That the West ever got priorities that fouled up is a sin.
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The best, most practical way forward is to fade the Afghan Campaign — and to set our sights upon trimming the verge from great height.
Henceforth, we’ll simply ignore Paki objections, and terminate their players uptempo.
The bad doctor and the one-eyed puppet are, without a doubt, in some deep hidden hole where goats can go missing without a stir.
If their ‘arms’ are chopped off ( they keep losing their runners ) then they become ‘bunkerized’ a la ‘der ranter.’
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We should turn the screws on Islamabad via the financial markets. In a world that can’t fund Spain nor Italy, why should anyone spend five seconds funding the crooked cabal of Islamabad?
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Per prior commentary, the step-wise break-up of the EZ is being factored into crude oil demand. Current pricing is down over 20%. ( That move has an astounding correlation to the re-directed crude oil flow from West Texas down to the Gulf. Interesting, no? )
Further, Libya is back up to its pre-revolutionary export tempo.
Yet, just down the road, KSA will be bringing on stream 400,000 bbl/dy of REFINED products — out of its Yanbu refinery running on heavy, sour crude.
That’s interesting. India has the largest single refinery complex now running: the twins on the west coast of India. These ‘crown jewels’ are getting their crude from Iran. ( mostly )
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jamnagar_Refinery
The Wiki is confused: there are TWO units, twins, sitting side by side — hence the combo is over 1,200,000 bbl/dy.
There is open speculation that a heated pipeline will soon be built from this complex to a fresh oil strike in northern India. That should have Tehran puckering.
======
http://www.hydrocarbons-technology.com/projects/aramco-yanbu/
The Yanbu refinery is one of four refineries that Aramco plans to build in the near future. The refineries are expected to bolster the country’s domestic refining capacity from 2.1 million bpd to 3.8 million bpd. Heavy crude oil is not a feasible option for most importing nations because it is difficult to transport and expensive to refine.
Translation: KSA is going to HAVE to refine the heavy stuff itself because ONLY world scale refineries can economically compete when processing heavy, sour crudes. One way or another, KSA is going to construct 1,700,000 bbl/dy of new refined supply. The VAST bulk of which, apparently, will be ULTRA LOW SULFER DIESEL. This is a product spec’d for the the American market which can also be sold in Europe, heck, anywhere.
[ For the bean-counters out there: it's taking approximately $ 25,000 to build 1 bbl/dy of such capacity. (!) ]
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I suppose that everyone has seen the Instapundit link to the hyper-deposit in western Russia. Back of the envelope calculations project 1,900,000,000,000 bbls recoverable in the deposit — if current fracking technical trends hold up.
It’s not an elephant: it’s a herd of elephants.
It also spells the death of the biogenic theory of oil deposits. The Russians theorize that crude oil is a consequence of non-biological geochemistry.
Interesting, no?
So much for Peak Oil.
[ Bazhenov-Neocomian oil formation ]
Funny how muslims don’t object to the creation of states like Pakistan or Bangla Desh, just Israel.
Can anybody point to a border situation where a muslim state is a good neighbour to a non-muslim state?
Actually, they are often not such good neighbours to other muslim states either. Or good neighbours within muslim states. Muslim may in fact be another word for dysfunctional.
Blert@36: I hope you’re right about all the petroleum/nat gas coming online, and it would be nice to see KSA and Iran forced to sweat for customers. If we do get cheap abundant supply, it will frustrate both of the second-term goals of Teh Won. It would vaprize Obama’s “green” dreams because the alternative fuels would be far too pricey. And it would deprive Iran of cash and geopolitical leverage, making them more desperate and thus more belligerent. Maybe they would lob one of their fresh nukes at the big new KSA refinery (or use their nuke umbrella to block retaliation)?
War with Pakistan?
City population:
Karachi 13,205,339
Lahore 7,129,609
Faisalabad 5,000,000
Rawalpindi 2,424,983
There are least 3 other cities with populations greater than 1.5 million and many more with populations greater than 500,000.
And, what exactly would we gain from this?
Pakistan always has been and always will be a fetid muslim hellhole. It was founded on fundamentally unsound principles, that haven’t improved over time. It was the first openly Jihad state, before Jihad was cool. Compare photos of the muslims before India and Pakistan were separated at independence, with photos taken yesterday:
Its amazing…..the same hate-drenched, psychotic faces and same illiterate posters screaming for Jihad.
Without nuclear weapons, Pakistan would be about as significant on the worldwide stage as other basketcase, gangster satrap “Stan.”
Hopefully, this new relationship with India will make it our national priorities to rid this evil, satanic country of its nukes with extreme prejudice.
”It also spells the death of the biogenic theory of oil deposits.”
Why is that? Reference?
Gordon, I think what he’s getting at is that there looks like there’s just too much of the stuff around to be accounted for by the traditional biogenic theory. The Russians have long considered the possibility that oil is a geological phenomenon and, if I’m not mistaken, they think it may seep up from below the earth’s crust. Whatever the source, a nonbiogenic source could mean the limitations on quantities that we have heretofore imposed are erroneous.
My own theory, which is mine, and which I have made up, so it is therefore my theory, is that it’s coming up from hell.
Unsk @ 33: “Pakistan has consistently over a long period of time attacked American interests. When a country does that, we must respond, whether it is Pakistan, Iran and Saudi Arabia.”
Unsk, my concern with Stoi’s proposed war on Pakistan was that it woud be simply reactive; there was no long term strategy that made sense for American interests.
You are proposing a long term strategy — obtain peace by making the world fear the US. Get back to the Roman Empire standard of the Roman citizen being untouchable by mere foreigners (Civis Romanus Sum), or the British Empire standard of making war on Spain because a Brit sailor got beaten up in a Havana bar (War of Jenkin’s Ear).
That would be a defensible strategy. First, we would need to get those brave & noble Congress-criters to adopt it explicitly & overwhemingly, so that the world would know this was an approach which would survive the end of the current Administration. Then we would need to set up a priority list to deal with all those who have dissed the US. It is a long list, not just Pakistan, Iran, North Korea, and the UN. Then what to do about those who are really pulling down the US — the internal enemies?
I have no time for Hillary and her striped pants brigade, but it really is a complicated world. And it would be very easy for a temporarily satisfying act to end up making the US much less secure.
“What strategic objectives does the US have anywhere in the world?”
Human Rights. Tyranny is our real enemy. The fact that every Human is created equal and has certain god given rights. America has the Military, economic and cultural strength to spread this creed around our planet. We need to do so.
“Until we can answer that question, accusations of cowardice are merely a distraction,”
I know I’m tilting at windmills here but everything starts with diplomacy. Since the Kellogg-Briand Pact,
http://www.yale.edu/lawweb/avalon/imt/kbpact.htm
American diplomacy has been stuck in never never land. Negotiating treaties harmful to American interests with nations we KNOW will breach them at the first opportunity.
“and declaring war on Pakistan would be evidence of foolhardiness rather than bravery.”
That depends. As a nuclear power, Pakistan is NOT protected by the NPT. WE should nuke a dozen or so of the small towns in the tribal territory. That will serve notice to nations like Iran that America has reached it’s limit of patience.
Walk softly and carry a big stick was for kinder and gentler times. A century later it stomp your combat boots and carry a chain gun.
Pakistan and Iran have both provided the USA with lots of causi belli material over the years. Taking them both down HARD ( Nukes, carpet bombing, Assassination by hunter-killer teams) would be a good way to let the world know that the USA is going to play the great game by established rules.
Nations will ALWAYS have conflicts. Part of what makes them nations. The USA has spent the last 80 years trying to change the tools of conflict from military to economic and cultural. It hasn’t worked. Meanwhile, if we had played the great game by the established rules, we would have won. We would now be in the 7th decade of a thousand years of Pax Americana. Truman should have nuked Moscow in March of ’46. No Stalin, No evil Empire. A generation of ‘this is the Constitution. Take it or glow in the dark.’ Would plow the soil for democracy.
So long as the rest of the world plays by one set of rules and America plays by another we are in a no win situation. One we will eventually lose. At great cost.
Richard, sorry about the URL to Yale. Please forgive me.
To process heavy crude oil one needs to add hydrogen. The best current source of hydrogen in industrial quantities is from methane (natural gas.) Hence a refinery to process heavy crude needs a large nat gas pipeline too.
The Gulf states have both and a small nat gas market so they are the best location for a heavy crude refinery.
6. BattleofthePyramids
“Obama SHOULD go to Congress, inform them that Pakistan is supporting and enabling terrorists and is therefore engaging in acts of war against the United States, that Pakistan and Islamic terrorists in general have thrust a state of war upon us, and that Congress must declare war and authorize the President to wage it fully, without restraint. Terrorism in its own way is total war, and the only proper response is total war.”
Although there’s a certain emotional satisfaction to this it ain’t gonna happen, for two reasons. One, in the President’s mind he would become as Bush, destroyer of worlds. The cognitive dissonance is too great. Two (and more importantly), his funding from the hard core lefties would evaporate. All of the President’s efforts (gay marriage, anyone?) in the last few months have been to keep the money spigot at full open. Having enough money to smear Romney is his only hope.
I hope what will President Romney will do is in public make bland smiley-face political nice-nice with the Pakis & jihadis. Then behind the scenes as the Arab Spring turns to Winter leverage the discontents and other major players (India, China & even the Saudis) to do the dirty work (with a periodic drone assist) to weaken and demoralize the enemy. The goal isn’t to destroy them but to exhaust them and focus them on infighting rather than fighting us. We don’t want D-day. We want to help them create an Islamic version of the Bleeding Kansas-Missouri Border War.
Like Team 44′s position on gay marriage the concept of “War” has evolved over time and after much careful thought. Thus Nato’s action in Libya was necessarily termed “Kinetic action”. Any smart power progressive will surely argue that remotely sending a hellfire through the roof or a window of the residence of someone on your list and his family is not war. We have been killing bad guys and anyone else close to them at the time within Pakistan’s borders for some time now, but its not war there. Its war next door.
Our kinetic action in Yemen is quite different, as I suspect there, a select few of their Govt. staffers are involved with the daily targeting and list maintenance. Coordinating with the Govies in Paki doesnt seem to be an option unless you want to blow up empty houses and have your operators let the air out of bad guys in the street.
Not sure what we are doing overseas or even here anymore. I sleep well at night knowing that somebody does.
Signing off for now…nap time 11:13am EDT.
Stoi @ 44: “Human Rights. Tyranny is our real enemy. The fact that every Human is created equal and has certain god given rights. America has the Military, economic and cultural strength to spread this creed around our planet. We need to do so.”
Fair enough. But if Americans want to take on the huge burden of civilizing an ungrateful world, it can’t be done on the sly through Executive action; nor can it be done on the cheap. That strategic objective would require explicit full bi-partisan support from an overwhelming majority of the people who will pay the high cost in lives & treasure to implement it. Otherwise, that mission would simply be another form of tyranny — a minority imposing its views on a reluctant public.
In the meantime, there is lots of developing tyranny for Americans to defeat at home. The County Commissioners in my remote part of the Universe are hell-bent on adopting a “UN Agenda 21″-inspired form of intense regulation which will effectively dis-empower the citizenry. These are Commissioners who are generally “elected” by the actual votes of less than one citizen in seven. And the Commissioners plan to give American citizens as much democratic input on the adoption of their UN scheme as Brit voters had on handing over UK authority to the EU.
Let’s take care of our own problems before taking on the burden of the world’s troubles.
“The goal isn’t to destroy them but to exhaust them and focus them on infighting rather than fighting us. We don’t want D-day. We want to help them create an Islamic version of the Bleeding Kansas-Missouri Border War.”
I disagree for the following reasons;
A) These are the very tactics used by our enemy. By adopting them ourselves, we have agreed to conflict by their rules on a battlefield THEY have prepared. Historically, this seldom works out well. Even if we win, we lose. A wise man once said ‘Pick your enemies carefully because you become like them. If we become sneaking low life terrorists to defeat sneaking low life terrorists, WHAT IS THE POINT?
Conduct ourselves in an honest, law abiding manner. The USA is the only superpower. Make it a contest of direct power and we cannot lose.
B) The USA has a huge tool box when it comes to conventional warfare. Many cans of whoop-ass contained therein. Select the appropriate cans, use them on Pakistan. Grab a few more cans, use them on Iran. Borrow a EU envoy and send them to Assad. Have the US Military include a war plan for using a few more cans on Syria. The envoy shows Assad the plan and asks him if a beach property in Cannes sounds good. Make sure he understands that he has no better chance then Pakistan or Iran. 24 hours to decide. Kick back on the beach with the wife and kids or cower in a bomb shelter waiting for that bunker buster.
The 2 choices above are traditional diplomacy. To Americans they seem brutal or harsh. To the rest of the world they are normal. Like the comfortable old robe you put on to putter around in the morning.
The rest of the world does the Waltz while America does the Charleston. It is unreasonable to expect the rest of the world to change without cause. So America learns to Waltz and the diplomatic dance can go on. Problems can and will be solved without young men in suicide vests or Predator drones.
If I recall correctly, the whole idea of going into Afghanistan was to destroy and deny al Q a base for operations and terrorist training. As we moved along in the war, we got into nation building and other distractions. We also did not play hardball with the Paks, who enabled this situation with their ISI. When confronted with liars and thieves, we played nice when we should have played hardball. We have been messing around here for 11 years, with a bit progress to show. This should have been a maximum of one year operation, with the fear of G*d put into the Paks and Saudis. They respect power. They look at compromise as a weakness.
#48 Kinuachdrach
We have been dealing with this here in Colorado. Our TEA Party has been instrumental in blocking it in our county and several others. As a byproduct, two of the three of our County Commissioner slots are up for election this cycle. One of the Republican candidates is TEA Party, and the other while not formally one of us sure turns up at a lot of our meetings.
It can be done.
Subotai Bahadur
stoicheion (#49) using some cans of “Whoop-Ass” in Syria just acquired a higher price (fewer cans to choose from)! Internet is pop’n off news of Russki Attack Helio’s inbound! Tho I don’t put a lot of change on Russki Attack Helio’s lasting long against veteran American pilots it’s the fact that Russian Pilots will most likely pay the price and Putin is load with home town trouble that he would be glad to have screaming for America blood for a change… Boy that DJI sure is whacked, kinda making a circle towards the “Great Crash” behavior prior to its famous day, of course it’s probably just all that foreign crash flowing in… Euro doing the Titanic…
cw @ 52: Russki Attack Helio’s inbound! Tho I don’t put a lot of change on Russki Attack Helio’s lasting long against veteran American pilots…
I doubt they will ever see American pilots. They may see American missiles, launched by Israelis. Or, not. Turkish pilots? That could get interesting.
But WTF is Putin thinking? You do the math on that, and it just doesn’t come out very well. Not that we can throw stones, having supported Mubarak for a generation, and really, is there such a difference? The difference is that Assad and Syria actively attacked the US in Iraq.
Just seems to me Putin could try putting Russia in any of a dozen different roles in world politics, and they’d almost all have much better payoffs than what he is doing.
Syria needs a can of whoop-a$$, but the application is a bit late. When Assad was enabling terrorists with transit of men and materiel during Operation Iraqi Freedom, that was when it should have been done. We did virtually nothing to discourage Assad’s dirty little game.
Now we are seeing people getting into the rebellion thing, with folks like the Saudis working to exploit it for their own ends. I do not think that it is in the US interests to get involved there. It is another Libya.
The best thing we can do is to stay out and be vigilant, while eliminating any US need for ME oil. Then we have no economic dependence on these guys. They need us more than we need them.
While the primary focus of W’s post here is Pakistan, I noticed a blockquote item about Obama’s “ambitious” plans to push climate change action and reduce nukes.
I hope he does push those items front and center, because I think a sufficient number of voters will be turned off for one or both of two reasons:
1) Who really cares right now? It would help dramatize Obama’s seeming aloofness and cluelessness when most people are concerned about the economy.
2) While not outright skeptics, more people are beginning to look askance at how the whole AGW “science” has been handled and promoted, and others — often the same people — would consider drastic unilateral nuke reduction as inviting national suicide.
So, by all means Mr. President, bring on your fantasy agenda while the economy burns.
Few other actions would protect his middle east wmd stockpiles. Its difficult to manage a multiple crisis situation. Just ask Eric Holder.
Islam is dying on the vine, so fast that we can’t even really help it along. Seems that as literacy increases, birth rates drop like a rock. Spengler correctly concludes that the problem is spiritual, a lack of faith and hope regarding the future, and that Islam is incompatible with modernity.
That would mean that America’s two primary adversaries, Secular Humanism and Islam, are demographically and culturally self-destructing. Speaking strictly on the basis of the available data, Judaism and Christianity have proven their staying power where nothing else has.
Which would suggest that the solution, in both cases, is not aggression but a judicious combination of self-defense and evangelism.
From their perspective, the perspective of the Muslims (leaders and quite a few of their people) we ARE the great Satan–the foreigners who don’t submit to Allah, and who come into their lands and do various bad things, spreading blue jeans and rock-and-roll, all part of our “imperial” goals.
Of course, they don’t see THEIR former conquests as “imperial”, but god-given.
We ARE imperial, of course, wanting them stable so we can use them as markets of various kinds. But we’re NOT imperial in the old British and French colonial sense. Perhaps they can’t quite figure us out?
They are, above all, anarchic. And they are spreading their ancient, anti-intellectual anarchism into our own thought. The Western Left (in all its forms) was never very bright, and so is quite susceptible to this contagion. I see our struggles with the idiot multi-culti nonsense essentially to be an adjunct (in various forms) of Islamic anarchism. It is their “anarchism for us, but confusion for thee”, however, a strategy that seems to have worked, for the Left, at least–our Left has swallowed it hook, line, and nuke.
So watch the Left try to demand an embargo on any and all oil from fraking is Siberia, or something, anything, that would weaken us.
As for war, these people are mad. You never argue with a fool. So I’d suggest withdrawal from from all relations with all the Muslim lands from the Indus to the Atlantic (though we might keep relations with Morocco, and overthrow the mullahs in Iran ASAP. (That country would probably be Christian in no time.) Be ever and constantly clear about Israel to them, of course, but only attack them if they attack Israel or us.
Keep the loonies in their hutch, yet always remembering that from their perspective, we really ARE their enemy. And, of course, realizing that we are so NOT them, that the planet therefore IS hardly big enough for both of us.
But since it HAS to be, they’re quarantined.
An Préachán
“But WTF is Putin thinking?”
That Obambi and the clown posse are a bunch of cowards and pussies. He knows that the Administration will keep the military on a short leash. It’s easy to bluff an opponent that fears his own shadow.
“http://content.usatoday.com/communities/theoval/post/2012/06/obama-team-russia-sending-attack-helps-to-syria/1″
It looks like they are shipping heilos, not pilots. Russia is the weakest now since 1917. A paper bear, so to speak. I doubt that they enough pilots to man their own AH’s must less Syria’s. It makes me think that Syrian pilots have refused to fire on the crowds.
Stoi…
It makes me think that the helo MECHANICS have been throwing spanners into the rotors.
Don’t be surprised to find out that it’s MECHANICS that Putin is being requested to send.
(Assad already had helicopters galore. Strangely, they’re not flying.)
The other dog that’s not barking: airmobile response units are never ever mentioned — even though Syria has the equipment for such units. I suspect that they’re being held back as the palace guard/ escape hatchers.
Iran, of course, has PLENTY of helicopter trained pilots. The Shah bought the works from America — and the mullahs hove maintained it, come what may. They are still featured in Tehran’s propaganda releases.
http://www.chinook-helicopter.com/history/aircraft/iran/iranian.html
(Read through to the bottom.)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2v6kOcJwpw
And here’s a home-grown attack helicopter.
The key, in every case, is the regime’s full appreciation of what helicopters bring to the power equation.
In which case, they’ve trained plenty of loyalist fanatics.