Ode to Cheese
European readers were amused and not a little frightened to read of pastoralism’s return to Italy. “As Italy’s unemployment rate topped 10pc this week, it emerged that young people are flocking to become shepherds.” With dreams of a white collar career rapidly diminishing, a life on the land now seems preferable to “starving in an Armani suit”, as one commenter put it.
Election results in Greece, France and Germany have made it clear that the European electorate is unwilling to continue paying off their rising debt by raising taxes and tightening their belts. “With Europe’s economies plunging further into recession and as unemployment in the eurozone breaks record levels, voters demands for a new approach had finally become to great to ignore.”
“Athenians are deserting the city for the countryside in search of a simpler and cheaper life,” says the Telegraph. There at least are olives, vegetables, grain and yes — sheep.
Amid the rage against the European machine and their own politicians, there is a however awareness among ordinary Greeks that they tolerated a paternalistic and eventually unaffordable system of government largesse …
The major parties and the public operated a bargain which has proved disastrous in the long run, he added.
“There is a huge black economy which the politicians turned a blind eye to as long as we voted for them. This election is just a temporary solution.”
The Economist describes the life of a real-life European “Julia”. ‘Julia’ is the Obama campaign’s symbolic woman voter who lives a life of perpetual gratitude that she has voted for Obama, whose administration will provide for her, rather than the Other Brand, which has sold her into indentured servitude. The problem is that life for the real Julias is nothing like that. They are not only leaving home. They are leaving their countries.
Maria Gil Ulldemolins … has one degree from Britain and is about to conclude another in her native Spain. And she feels that she has no future.
… Before the financial crisis Spanish unemployment, a perennial problem, was pushed down by credit-fuelled growth and a prolonged construction boom: in 2007 it was just 8%. Today it is 21.2%, and among the young a staggering 46.2%. “I trained for a world that doesn’t exist,” says Ms Ulldemolins.
Nor is Ulldemolins alone. The Economist says that “in Portugal … some 40% of 18- to 30-year-olds say they would consider emigrating for employment reasons. In some countries, such as Italy, a constant brain-drain is one more depressing symptom of a stagnant economy. In Ireland, where discouragement among young workers has shot up since 2005 (see chart 2), migration doubled over the same period, with most of the departed between 20 and 35.”
The depths to which European job prospects have fallen was highlighted by the appearance of Spanish job-seekers in Mexico. The Financial Times describes the efforts of Marta Fernandez whose low-paying job at a Madrid media company epitomizes “starving in an Armani suit”. Her “new job, working full time for €300 a month, will barely cover her rent.” Laura Frieyro is so sick starvation wages that she is going for the big enchilada in Mexico.
Laura Frieyro, a theatre set designer, is moving to Mexico, where she says there is not only more work, but also the chance to escape a “crisis attitude” that is sucking motivation from her peers.
“You go out on the street here and everyone is talking about the crisis, about politics. In Mexico they are used to having problems, the attitude is completely different,” she says. “People in Mexico are shocked when I tell them there is no work here in Spain. It is a complete change of roles.”
This may herald a shift in roles in the structure of the remittance corridors of the world. For decades workers attempting to escape from dysfunctional economies have been emigrating to greener pastures and sending their money back home. But the appeal of the Western world has been declining.
When the Euro and Dollar Were Kings
American greenbacks and euros are no longer sought after in those African countries where currencies have appreciated sharply in real terms thanks to demand for the commodities they export. “When you send dollars back to a family in Angola, they don’t feel as rich as before,” says Marcelo Giugale of the World Bank. Working in Europe for five years no longer buys a house back home.
People are now seeking their fortune where they can using the underground economy, what labor mobility is left to them and their own enterprise. If shepherding is the ticket, then go for it.
Despite President Obama’s assurances that Hope and Change are just around the corner, there are disturbing signs that the welfare state ship he had hoped to sail into a rosy future has just hit an iceberg. Calculated Risk presents a jobs trend chart which suggests that something is different about this recession. It is not just a cyclical perturbation within the status quo. It may be a crisis in the status quo itself. It looks increasingly likely that the swallows are not just late in returning to Capistrano but that something has happened to the swallows themselves.
Where Have All the Paychecks Gone, Long Time Passing?
The old model isn’t working. Many people have simply stopped looking for a job, a fact that keeps the Administration’s “rising employment” statistics artificially inflated.
Brother, Can You Spare a Dime?
When people stop believing that Hope and Change will eventually — with application and unlimited patience — work, it may not be long before the pastoral and entrepreneurial lifestyle makes a comeback, not just in Italy, but all over what was formerly called the Developed World. There will be people moving around to find an economic opportunity with the regulators in hot pursuit.
That may not necessarily be bad. Some commenters who complained that the resurgence of shepherding in Italy meant that instead of becoming “Internet entrepreneurs” the Italian youth were reverting to Third World agriculture neglected to consider that not everyone can be an Internet entrepreneur, despite President Obama’s claims that government spending made Google and Facebook possible.
For some people, their highest and best use of time is to raise sheep for wool (and pecorino cheese). And that is better than “starving in an Armani suit”. What the world may be witnessing in Europe and the United States is the revenge of reality over fantasy, the burn-through of economics through the narrative veil. Which shall prevail? The matter has been in dispute for hundreds of years.
| The Passionate Policy Wonk to His Love Come live with me and be my wonk, And all the Rightists we will conk. With Faceook, Twitter, contraceptive shields That Obamacare and Headstart yields And we will sit upon the rocks, Seeing the SEIU feed their flocks By shallow rivers to whose falls The suicide sing madrigals. And I will play thee “Beds of Roses” From my sound systems Bang and Boses, A cap of flower, and a kirtle Embroidered all with leaves of myrtle; A gown made of the finest wool Which over voter’s eyes we pull; Fair lined slippers for the cold Which we have taken from the selfish old; A belt of straw and ivy buds, Patchouli oil and amber studs; And if these pleasures may thee move, Come live with me and be my love. The Occupy swains shall dance and sing For thy delight each Wall Street morning: If these delights thy mind may zonk, Then live with me and be my wonk. |
The Love’s Reply to the Policy Wonk If all the world and love were young, And truth in every activist’s tongue, These pretty pleasures might me move To live with thee and be thy love. Time degrades the tents as they grow old, When rains rage and snow grows cold; And Bill Ayers was always dumb; About the shape of things to come. The flowers do fade, and wanton fields To wayward winter reckoning yields; A honey tongue, a heart of gall, Is fancy’s spring, but sorrow’s fall. Thy drums, borrowed shoes, thy Olaffson and Boses, Thy shades, thy words, thy cheesy poses, Soon break, soon wither, soon forgotten, In folly ripe, in reason rotten. Thy celebrity friends and best cool buds, Thy facial jewelry and tatooed studs, All these in me no means can move To come to thee and be thy love. But could youth last and love still breed, Had joys no date nor age no need, Then these delights my mind might conk And I’ll live with thee and be thy wonk. |
How to Publish on Amazon’s Kindle for $2.99
The Three Conjectures at Amazon Kindle for $1.99
Storming the Castle at Amazon Kindle for $3.99
No Way In at Amazon Kindle $8.95, print $9.99
Speaking of cheese, France just elected a Socialist as President. Happy days are here again!
The plight of new college grads, as a token of the overall job market and economy, seems to be worse in Europe than in the USA, and last year there were also articles about how even in a still-booming Chinese economy, China as a surplus of educated young people. But it’s bad here, worse than the overall charts. Even anyone employed gets lower wages, unacknowledged inflation, and a total lack of both perceived and real job stability.
But neither of the US presidential candidates (taking both Obambus and Romney as done deals) seems to know or care, they are just pumping the old bromides, when they bother to mention jobs or the economy at all. Obambus thinks Julia will be happy on a diet of government dog-burgers, and Romney … I haven’t the foggiest idea what Romney’s position is other than standing on the roof of his car and barking, “Opportooonity!”
Yeah, what?
And so, in this context, of those two pitches, which do *you* think more likely to get the guy elected?
The French have sealed our fate! 0bama has won a 2nd term and the worst has yet to come… For where Europe goes American Progressive (you know, the smarter ones) are not far behind and the zombies all want to be in the “Cool” thing… That’s why a inferior product like the iPhone (and iPad) has made a lousy company one of the richest! (not counting their use of near slave labor in China)
Bravo, Wretchard.
For some years I have been saying that we are finally seeing the end of the WWII era built on the dual frameworks of the Beveridge Report and various Marxian philosophies.
It is not going to be pretty.
The Greeks may well be heading back to the land, yet they (or at least the urbanised populace – voting trends by location are not yet clear) are also electing from the political extremes. So are the French. The old dream of free money forever is going to die hard.
Christopher Marlowe replies:
Come live with me and be my love
And we will all the pleasures prove
That valleys, groves, hills, and fields
Woods or steepy mountain yields
The pleasure that Obama takes
In fantasies of girlfriend fakes
And bowing before Arab kings
While kissing lovingly their rings
Yes come with me and be my love
And by the very stars above
We’ll grace the world with hope and change
Don’t eat the dog, he’s got the mange
In America the Depression has resulted in an outflow of illegals back to Mexico. In Europe we shall see but I suspect that the Ummah is waiting to fill the void. The greater the Islamist presence the greater the resulting pressure to accommodate and the more irrational and corrupt the political and economic systems will be. The Socialist model of politics aka The Chicago Way is to progressively corrupt the system and the electorate. There is a synergy between Islamism and Crony Capitalist Chicago Socialism. Both mold the culture the economy and the population to be fit for authoritarian poverty. Once a nation crosses the event horizon it may be impossible to escape. France may have chosen failure. If wretchard is correct then people are choosing small entrepreneurial solutions that will regenerate society. If he is wrong then developed nations are falling into an abyss.
BTW, I was starting to spin a plot about what could have occupied our host. Vengeful NPA Sparrows and murky environmental NGO Bagmen featured in my tentative scenario.
The sheeple have figured it out. The root of the problem is the Banking Cartel. They made bad loans and now instead of eating them, they are trying to force the Sheeple to bail them out. It looks like the Sheeple are not co-signing that plan.
Maybe it’s time for the bankers to be job hunting.
One wonders if there are enough subsistence agriculture jobs to go around in Europe? One also wonders when those people will get tired of working for nothing?
Josh is right about our politicians and the usual bromides. Even repubs suggest government solutions to our problems. No one suggests just getting Government and their legions of snoopervisors out of our lives. Apparently that solution is inconceivable to our masters.
Einstein once said that not only was the universe stranger than we imagined, it was stranger than we CAN imagine.
The future is going to be stranger than we can imagine now. It’s easy to look for political villains or blame the evil “banksters”, but we have, after all met the enemy, and it is us. The collective us, not necessarily individuals who have tried to be prudent with their money and lives.
That has been the message from the popular culture for many decades now. Have fun. Live for today. It’s a New Frontier. It’s a Great Society. It’s whatever make believe we want to subscribe to this week.
I have a nice life. I live in a nice house, in a nice town. I have nice neighbors, on the whole. My world seems to make sense most days. I’ve worked hard and steady most of my life. Do I really think I have “earned” this?
I think that it is going to come to an end soon, but for the life of me I can’t imagine just how weird it could become. I can’t imagine how weird it’s going to be for my teenage kids.
No matter what I do tomorrow or next week, our society is probably going to be driving over the cliff economically, culturally and psychologically pretty soon. It is all pretty well linked together. But I wouldn’t exactly use French politics as some kind of barometer. Those people are kooky and irrelevent.
I guess if I was really gutsy I would draw out all my savings in my IRA and 401K and convert it to gold and do lots of survivalist stuff to prepare, but somehow we all think we are going to ride it out and come out the other side.
I’ve seen and heard all the panicky social and poltical talk before, and it always sorta peters out, and things get back to normal for a while. Is it all going to be different this time? Is this the end of the party, and is this the end of the dance?
If Obama thinks he’s going to be buddies with Hollande, I submit he’ll be sadly mistaken. Mr. Light Worker still doesn’t understand that the national anthem of France isn’t “La Marseillaise.” It’s “I’m Against It”:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7cry-4pyy8
2. Josh
You are right about Obama and Romney. They are not saying the same thing but neither of them is confronting the reality that is so poetically (including Walt) described in this post. If one of them is able to burst his little bubble, make sense of the new reality and give people some idea of how to navigate in the new world, then he would win in a landslide.
If they stay in their bubbles it will be a coin toss as to who wins depending on the mood of the electorate the night before they go to the polls. Some random event at the eleventh hour that makes one of them look like a safer bet could determine the outcome of the election.
My guess is that Romney is more adaptable and is more able to figure out some semi-reasonable way to react to the new situation. I don’t know much about about Mormons beyond the usual general knowledge and that they like the name Smith. They work hard and historically have thrived in tough new environments in the U.S. and in Canada. The Mormons I have run into have been straightforward can do people.
But first Romney has to burst his bubble.
If you are paying for college you are wasteing your time and money unless to get a degree in hard science, math or computer science. Lit., History, Womens studies, music or poetry are for the most part useless when looking for a job.
At the core of the correct thinkers ( c.f. The Economist ) is that culture can trump DNA — and that they are independent variables, to boot.
The brutish truth is that culture is cross-dependent upon IQ norms — upon DNA.
The economic function of a mind weirdly resembles the statistics of the photo-electric effect.
Below a certain IQ economic output crashes to zero.
Beyond that threshold, rising IQ helps personal performance, perhaps linearly… with a mild slope.
======
It’s an inconvenient truth, but Northern races: Caucasian and Oriental norm around 100 – ish. Whereas the global IQ norms to 85 – ish. Closing that gap is more a matter of DNA and pre-natal conditions than any other factors.
Bringing vast, vast numbers of stunted minds into the North triggers mass dependency. The ummah in Britain is wildly over represented on the dole. In Denmark, the school statistics are grim: the alien hordes are testing with norms clear down into the low 80′s — no matter what the State does to remediate the situation.
Western governments STILL do not stop muslim cousin-marriage on a wholesale basis. Rather, Europeans permit chain-immigration-cousin-marriage and turn a blind eye.
Not surprisingly, these immigrant-perpetual dependents want all the good things in life… but can’t earn their way towards them. They must either steal them — or get the State to ‘redistribute incomes/outcomes’ for them.
It is the staggering load of illegals that has blown up the Euro fantasy — a full generation earlier than earlier fears.
For the mathematics behind IQ distribution and GDP per capita:
http://www.lagriffedulion.f2s.com/sft2.htm
WRT open borders:
http://www.lagriffedulion.f2s.com/imm.htm
=======
Slowly, very slowly, the natives are getting the picture. Hence, the strong polling for Pen. Other than immigration policy, her party is further left than the Socialists. So it’s a very confused polity.
To paraphrase a more contemporary ‘Prince’ than Machiavelli’s: “Tonight we’re gonna party like it’s 1929.”
#8 feeblemind
One wonders if there are enough subsistence agriculture jobs to go around in Europe?
The key question, and not just for Europe. A rarely contemplated but basic fact is that a modern urbanized lifestyle with specialization of careers DOES permit a higher population than a purely rural and agricultural society. Not only does it permit it, but the population grows to the limit of the ability to be supported.
So what happens when the economy that supported the larger population fails? What happens when the limited number of niches available to “raise sheep” and other agricultural goods are taken and there is still a surplus population?
Might I suggest an answer:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e1/Apocalypse_vasnetsov.jpg
Those who learn to survive, are going to be targeted by those who have not. And the means of population reduction are orders of magnitude beyond what was imagined when the Horsemen were first concieved.
Subotai Bahadur
Saw an interestsing statistic the other day.
At the time of the signing of the Amercians With Disabilities Act a total of 51% of the disabled in the U.S. were employed.
20 years later, 31% of the disabled in the U.S. are employed.
The additional “rights” brought by the Act caused companies to switch from seeing the disabled as potentially valuable employees to their being likely lawsuit liabilities. It’s not just disappearing Design Margin in that case; it’s the rise of the professional litigant.
In response the Obama Admin has once again decided to double down. If a company wants to do business with the Fed Govt it has to have a certain percentage of its workforce qualify as disabled. And furthermore that percentage has to be applied accross ALL departments. You can’t just have the disabled answering the phone and mopping the floors. Companies are being told they have to hire epileptics to drive trucks hauling hazardous waste and that people with back injuries have to be given jobs lifting heavy items in warehouses.
And as the 31% number shows, all this hurts people with disabilities most of all.
Forgotten #12: The professors advocating Liberal Arts majors in college are saying that it does not matter what you major in because it will all be obsolete in 5 years or so. So a Liberal Arts degree is really valuable because it teaches you how to learn, they say. But it is apparent that does not work with the professors, who appear to have not learned anything.
b @ 13: It’s an inconvenient truth, but Northern races: Caucasian and Oriental norm around 100 – ish. Whereas the global IQ norms to 85 – ish. Closing that gap is more a matter of DNA and pre-natal conditions than any other factors.
blert, I’m not saying you’re completely wrong about this (nor about the dark matter / dark energy kerfuffle) BUT at the least you’re missing a large factor, which is that the west and I guess the true Oriental east have social factors that allow the population to stratify so that the higher IQs can do their higher IQ stuff to the benefit of all. not that the west has not known various “leveler” movements – like the one currently squating at 1600 Pennsylvania – but they have never taken off. nobility and monarchy allow for stratification, as does freedom. what doesn’t is anarchy, including Islam with their hate (among their many hates) of “the Pharoah”, and their subsistence level permanent war. so there’s a cultural meme which may matter as much as the biological gene, and we’ve got it, and so far, they ain’t.
so, what happens if and when a large population of 85 IQ invades the west? nothing very good, I’m sure, but perhaps not as bad as you might think. depends perhaps on whether 85 IQ is good enough to use Google. that seems to be the expected behaviors now for the 115 IQs.
anyway, if we’re so smart, why are we losing in Afghanistan. say what you want about Islam, but it’s self-preservation (of the lowest possible energy level) is highly robust.
–
so what about the cheese? I dunno. I like to think we’ll muddle through. something like financial Bernankecare and social Juliacare may just be possible today, with our excess productive capabilities. will we ever return now to the status quo ante? doubt it, jack. be ready for a bumpy road, many surprises, and perhaps some of them favorable.
–
rwe @ 16: The professors advocating Liberal Arts majors in college are saying that it does not matter what you major in because it will all be obsolete in 5 years or so. So a Liberal Arts degree is really valuable because it teaches you how to learn, they say. But it is apparent that does not work with the professors, who appear to have not learned anything.
Heh. +1
But here’s the thing, that’s either sad, or at least a change, and perhaps ominous. The whole college crowd is not constructed, IQ or not, to major in math or science, not and do well at it. Nor are there really enough jobs for them all in those categories, even if they were. We come to the nub of it, what is 80% of the population to do all day, if their productive capabilities are not needed? Start building yachts, I guess, or other luxuries at reduced prices and reduced wages. Have to be a smart economist to figure where the equilibrium point is on that. The problem being it’s probably where we are already, or else further down.
I can’t help it:
“Poets have been mysteriously silent on the subject of cheese”
G.K.Chesterton
The most interesting comment I’ve read about the unemployment recovery graph was made on Tyler Cowen’s Marginal Revolution blog.
Notice that every recession since 1981 has taken longer to recover, and the difference in recovery length compared to the last recession has increased. It appears to be an acceleration toward some kind of structural employment failure.
At the current rate, this employment recession looks like it will last 10 years; we’re 4 years into it, but that leaves 6 long years to go, a time during which all sorts of things could happen. Like a failure of the Euro; collapse of the Spanish economy; a Japanese default as they switch from a net lender to a net borrower internationally; China’s bursting real estate bubble; Argentine nationalization of industry; and so on.
Still, I’m not too concerned about the average American. In my travels of late, my confidence in our countrymen has increased. There are millions of serious, resourceful Americans ready and able to adapt to any changes that come down the road.
My big concern is the elite. They will be like a spoiled beneficiary of a huge trust fund. When they can’t have what they believe they are entitled to, when the trustee says no to their request for money to buy a Ferrari, they will pitch the mother of all hissy fits. And given the resources they control today, the elite could make things much more unpleasant than they need to be.
The good news is that we can still save America. The bad news is that we can’t save the elite, and it’s unlikely that we can save the rest of world.
And that will make times even more interesting.
L3
There may be a pattern here. California elected Jerry Brown – a rehash from the 70′s. Oregon elected Kitzhauber – a former liberal governor 8 years earlier. Both California and Oregon are in the economic toilet 3 years later. Basically the soggy-brained 60′s generation rejected highly qualified candidates in favor of liberal failures. Is this some sort of group denial?
Now France has elected somebody from the party of ruin. Are they rehashing a dream that never was?
And I can only imagine what a bottomless pit of opportunity America will become if the people reelect Obama.
Obama’s got cool – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__7iB1yBraM
Speaking of the French elections, has anybody seen the pics of France’s new First Lady In Waiting? Holy smokes, another stunning beauty. That about settles it, move over Marie Claude, I’m of half a mind to pick up and head to France!
The New Pastoralism sweeping Italy and Greece is something to consider. I’d like to know how they do it. In America this would be very hard for the young and unemployed to do. Rural land is not cheap, and the costs of getting a herd of anything up and running, not to mention the expertise required on so many levels including the bureaucratic, are not trivial. Successful farmers and ranchers, in this country at least, are very savy and specialized businessmen. The countryside eats the noobs.
My favorite graph demonstrating the actual state of the American economy is:
Series Id: LNS12300000
Series title: (Seasonally Adjusted) Employment-Population Ratio
Labor force status: Employment-population ratio
Type of data: Percent or rate
Age: 16 years and over
Specify 2002 to 2012 at data.bls.gov (yes, these are official US govt. statistics).
The ratio stays between 62 — 63% from 2002 through 2007. The number then declines smoothly from 1/2008 until Q4 2009 when it hits 58.5, where it has stayed within a couple of tenths since then. The ball bounces along the top of the table, rolls off, hits the floor and rolls on with a couple of small bounces. The only words I know to describe it are: “It’s dead, Jim”.
“The New Pastoralism sweeping Italy and Greece is something to consider. I’d like to know how they do it.”
Massive EU subsidies.
While in Italy last year, I saw orange groves around the Bay of Naples that, frankly, couldn’t have been economic. They were too small, too hard to get to, and the land would have brought more income as a resort.
Maybe my sheepherding experience will come in handy after all.
For once, I may be ahead of the curve.
Bashing education not only makes this blog look bad. It not only gives ammunition to the enemy, but it is plain wrong on the merits. If I may be so bold the consensus ideology shared by most of those connected with PJM and this blog stands for anything it is recognizing and rewarding quality. Being well educated, in anything from Latin to Basket Weaving, is an achievement that merits approval. The qualities that support attaining a good education, adaptability, tenaciousness, retention, organization, and productivity, are naturally recognized and rewarded by society. They always have been. For hundreds or even thousands of years leadership roles have been filled by what we consider Liberal Arts majors. Complaining that Liberal Arts majors become successful is the antithesis of any philosophy associated with Capitalism or Liberty. In fact it sounds downright Socialist. People should reread wretchard‘s comment on the “Reagan Vs Obama” thread. A true liberal education is a good thing. Traditionally it was often tempered by a stint in the military to gain practical experience, especially for those aspiring to leadership in Public Service.
The question is how many Humanities and Social Science BAs does the society need and are they getting an education rigorous enough to weed out the weak and ensure us that the graduates are “first-class” or “sound?” My WAG is that the number of undergraduates enrolled in those programs at the top dozen American universities 45-55 years ago was about consistent with America’s natural carrying capacity for those skills. We have two problems.
First is the degradation in quality. The intrusion of political qualifications, especially regarding race and gender, have not only tainted the pool of matriculates at our top 12, proof BHO, but have also diluted the curriculum. Forty years ago you could confidently take an English Classics or History graduate from a top university and turn them loose on anything. That is why the military and CIA wanted them. Now they are much less desirable.
The second problem is the unjustified expansion of supply. This is what fuels Prof. Reynolds’ “Education Bubble.” The supply of second and third tier colleges has been grossly overbuilt. This was done as a jobs program. First the actual construction of the schools was designed to build blue collar support for politicians by injecting revenue streams into depressed and rural areas. The same pattern spurred prison construction. Then the schools served to provide employment to an unprecedented and unjustifiable expansion of the supply of graduate programs.
Let me repeat. If the supply of Liberal Arts baccalaureates was the same or slightly higher than it was 40-50 years ago, before the effect of the “baby boom” influx, and the quality of the programs was unchanged, then there would be no problem. If the supply of doctorates in these fields was what it was 45 to 55 years ago then there would be no problem.
America needs to defund the Left. Doing so will mean deconstructing the redoubts and stopping the revenue streams they have constructed over 50 years. The surplus educational establishment is a positive drain on society. This will entail enormous conflict. The restoration of a truly superior Liberal Arts cadre ready to assume the demands that society has always placed on them is something to be desired.
Years ago I ran across an event listing, the Dull Men’s Club of Beverly Hills was having their monthly meeting at which there would be a debate:
Proposed – Rodeo Drive should be rezoned agricultural.
I was unable to attend.
The proposal was ahead of its time, apparently.
–
d @ 27: kind of a rhetorical question about the loss in Afghanistan, as you say that’s been chewed over too much already, and none of the possible answers are very pretty.
Josh – just a stab at why we are “losing” in Afghanistan.
In one sense, it was almost pre-ordained, in a very tragic sense. We couldn’t win there in the sense that might have “won” in Iraq if Obama hadn’t decided to give it away, but that’s another story.
Since this is well trod ground at the Belmont Club, I will make this very brief. The Afghans are not a Westphalian country as we understand them, they are all too tribal. Some have genuinely welcomed us as friends – most of them not so much. Whatever they could steal or con from us. They have been fighting the outsiders and each other for years, in a hard bitter country. They have taken immense losses of life (especially during the ’80′s against the Russians) and still kept fighting.
We either have too many people or not enough. Probably too many. It’s at the end of a long and difficult logistical line, and we should be fighting with local tribesman that have some affinity for what we have to offer, and with a smaller footprint in the country. That would be a high risk/high benefit/ high return strategy, which I doubt the US Army would go for. It would put some of the Special Forces operators at extreme risk with little hope of support. But otherwise we were going to lose in a slow and painful way. Tragic for our troops on the ground for sure.
We lose because they know we are not going to stay forever, and when we leave, everything resets to what had come before. So why would they align with us for any length of time – just long enough to steal from us, that’s how long.
For depressing reading, read “The Afghan Campaign” by Steven Pressfield – a novelization of the years that Alexander spent in this land trying to pacify it.
Does history mean anything?
If it does, it tells us that large numbers of young people (especially males) with time on their hands is a recipe for trouble. Famously, the majority of those who joined Mao on his 6,000 mile march were 18 or younger.
But maybe that will not happen these days. As long as the unemployed young, whether in France or the US, can twitter on their iPhones, perhaps nothing much will happen. But governments are forcing more & more intermittent wind into the electric system, and when the wind drops so will a lot of those cell phone calls. Maybe then the young will get marching.
The solution is staring everyone in the face. Simplify the tax codes; roll back excessive regulation; slap down ambulance-chasing lawyers; cut bureaucrats. And stand back as the economy booms, creating jobs and tax revenues. It is obvious why an Obama ignores that way “Forward”. But why does that path to success also elude Romney, or France’s Sarkosy, or the UK’s David Cameron?
Leo Linbeck III @ 9 said:
“Notice that every recession since 1981 has taken longer to recover, and the difference in recovery length compared to the last recession has increased. It appears to be an acceleration toward some kind of structural employment failure.”
I’ve been focused on those very same set of curves. Something “broke” after 1981. Every economic “recovery” since 1981 has been facilitated through money printing and the PPT manipulating markets (the economy was acting like an underdamped harmonic oscillator). The United States has an enormous amount of economic inertia. Eventually a recession will start before “percent job losses” reverts to zero. After that happens, we go through a different branch at the critical point. Hysteresis rears her ugly head and we’ll find that the economy has assumed a new dynamic or state, e.g. the spring bounces nicely until the steel fatigues and breaks. When does the spring’s steel break? Next week? In September just prior to the General Election? In January after Obama is reelected?
What can I do to prepare?
The French electorate (and most of the others in the EU) have long had the choice of being governed by a slightly left of center coalition or a slightly left of left of center coalition and in the event they could not make up their minds then they got a grand coalition of the left of center and slightly left of left of center. In other words the political game has been rigged for most of the post-war period in most countries in western Europe.
The politicians all know each other, all went to the same universities, slept with each others girlfriends, read the same books, watched the same plays, egaged in the same nefarious corruptions, and agreed the same political rules which ensured they would on occasion swap the top jobs but never allow real change to happen. No the system is not working so well and this ruling elite have no solutions to offer, only more of the same. This is leading to growth among parties on either extreme which have no possibility owing to the rigging of the system to effect change or gain a share of the power. Bad situation that.
I see no way Greece doesn’t default and pull out of the common currency unless she receives a more or less permanent subsidy. Portugal and Spain cannot be far behind. The can cannot be kicked much further. The USA’s day of reckoning comes when California defaults for they are our Spain/Italy.
Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton put the US on the road to ruin, but were stopped by weak bond markets and rising interest rates. It was painfull, as rates for governemnt borrowing went above 10% under Carter and were rising under Clinton. Interest rates for home loans under Carter went to 15+%. This pain somewhat limited the damage, convincing socialists and the populace that they were pressing too hard for Utopia. Republican Ronald Reagan was elected after Carter, and G.W.Bush after Clinton.
Barack Obama has put us on the same road to ruin, but it is much worse this time because we are in the calm eye of a hurricane that is blowing down Europe. Our bond interest rates are unusually low. This seems to signal confidence in US policy. But, money is flowing to the US government out of panic, not confidence.
Passengers on the Titanic ran for the stern. A blind man might have thought that the stern was not sinking; in fact it was rising higher above the ocean. The other passengers clearly had confidence in the stern, as they were all fleeing there. This is what our current government thinks, as it spends away any margin of safety. In this analogy, it is burning the lifeboats for warmth.
T-Notes Offer Panicked Buyers Only Short-Term Refuge
12/19/11 – MinyanVille by Lee Adler
=== ===
[edited] Withholding tax collections remain weak, and the government needs to raise substantially more cash than the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee had estimated it would need just six weeks ago.
Foreign central bank purchases of Treasuries have fallen off a cliff. That would normally be a big problem. But, it just doesn’t matter, because panicked institutions fleeing European paper are buying mass quantities of US Treasury paper [making vast loans to the US governemnt]. The demand is overwhelming the immense supply. Tidal waves of panic capital flight have been flooding into the Treasury market in never-before-seen amounts, both in terms of the indirect bid and the bid by primary dealers, of whom one-third are European banks.
=== ===
18. Walter Adams
Cheesy poetry lives in Canada. Here are the first two verses of “Ode on the Mammoth Cheese” by James McIntyre (1828-1906).
We have seen thee, queen of cheese,
Lying quietly at your ease,
Gently fanned by evening breeze,
Thy fair form no flies dare seize.
All gaily dressed soon you’ll go
To the great Provincial show,
To be admired by many a beau
In the city of Toronto.
__________________________________
As they say in Northern Iraq, “Let the Kurds have their whey.”
Janet Daly has some good points about the perceived debate between left and right sides of the political spectrum here.
“Just this. In all the phoney ardour and heat, no one is paying any attention to the two facts that make nonsense of this supposed debate – which is not a debate. The first is that the assumption which all the principal parties have chosen to share is wrong. Relying on the free market to support a vast system of entitlements (whichever of the two you choose to make your first priority) is not sustainable. The market economy simply cannot afford the enormous cost of the social security programmes that are now regarded as politically untouchable in Europe and in the US – as both of their political elites are painfully discovering.
The second, and even more critical point, is that the economy has become so globalised that it is beyond the control of any national government, and therefore outside the reach of democratic accountability.
Politicians running for office may squabble and insult one another for all they are worth – but the economic future can now escape their grasp altogether.”
Maybe things would improve if politicians came to believe that very few economic problems have a political solution.
No more high taxes. Redistribution of incomes is too slow.
Coming next: Nationalization of properties of the stinking rich. Re-education of the selfish who refuse to share their wealth.
k @ 28: The solution is staring everyone in the face.
I wish. See – hey, any of my posts over the last year. Only thing staring us all (well, let’s say me) in the face is almost unprecedented uncertainty. If anything were certain, it would be a choice between (a) huge protectionism to restore US job/trade balance, or (b) continued seeking of equilibrium between US and China (and other third world) wages. (b) entails continued huge deflation of real estate and other real property simultaneous with inflation of nearly everything else. I’m for (a). It’s not free, far from it, it’s just better than (b).
It’s not that it’s different this time, I mean it is and it isn’t, the iron laws still hold, but as wretchard has been saying for months, the iron laws are smashing down on a rotted infrastructure. We have come to the end of something. Hey, that happens every day when the sun goes down, but this one is a little bigger than that. But it looks like France is going to do us a signal favor, and let the (avowed) socialists try their hand at it. Good luck, mesdames et messieurs. Please accept the loan of our Monsieur Krugperson for the duration, s’il vous plaît.
Australia is more PC and socialist than any other member of the Anglosphere
Also you cannot own most guns in Australia-
-Europe is much more liberal in gun ownership than Australia.
What are Wretchards actions and views about his own back yard?
BftP (25),
Few here, if any, will disagree with you on this point. But the question is, is the typical BA graduate getting a “liberal education”?
Murray (33),
Regarding this part of your excellent quote from Daly:
I think it’s time for everyone to go re-read Bobbitt.
kinuachdrach@28 : “It is obvious why an Obama ignores that way “Forward”. But why does that path to success also elude Romney, or France’s Sarkosy, or the UK’s David Cameron?”
Simple. Too many people are allowed to vote.
As has been shown, over and over again since 1945 (and now terminally): Universal franchise voting, with net recipients participating, is a catastrophic failure.
Victor wrote: Australia is more PC and socialist than any other member of the Anglosphere
This is only true if you exclude the UK from the Anglosphere (and NZ, but Sydney is bigger than NZ and richer, so it probably doesn’t count in this discussion.)
The UK is far more socialist than Aus, structurally and culturally. In fact, many of our prominent socialists are in fact from the UK! (Probably fleeing Thatcher, but I digress.)
I wonder if Victor is not perhaps playing provocateur with this comment?
blast from the past @25 :”If the supply of Liberal Arts baccalaureates was the same or slightly higher than it was 40-50 years ago, before the effect of the “baby boom” influx, and the quality of the programs was unchanged, then there would be no problem”
Right, but the problem starts before eighth grade.
The “natural” HS graduation rate for whites is around 25%. That’s the rate in 1941, when staying or leaving was an entirely free choice. If you allow another 10% for lack of access in the tail end of the depression (generous, IMO), you are left with the indisputable fact that 65% of white 15-18 year olds don’t belong in a real high school.
What you correctly refer to as an influx of 18 year olds occurs because, after three years of compulsory “education” that confers no benefit, the non-criminal fraction of incapables is not fit for anything EXCEPT watered-down “college”. And since we did not have the sense to create present baccalaureate programs from scratch, we have stupidly allowed this herd of uneducated dummies to flood into REAL colleges, and with the bribe of unsecured student “loans”, destroy them.
One part of the solution to this mess might be to tell the banksters to go do something anatomically impossible. The UK has an increasing number of empty factories and empty shops, and also an increasing number of people (particularly young people) with no jobs and often no prospect of jobs. Meanwhile, the parasitic scum in the City of London award themselves salaries most of us only see as telephone numbers, and continue to accumulate vast amounts of money that they have no intention of lending out to the small businesses that need it.
This, despite the fact of two of our major banks having majority shareholdings by the UK Government – who could, if they chose, simply tell them “start lending to business or you’re fired”.
Banking is a necessary function. However, the sort of rarefied trading in various derivatives that forms most of banking these days is not.
Kirk Parker 37,
“Few here, if any, will disagree with you on this point.”
There is an unfortunate tendency by some to conflate the current condition of the Social Sciences and Humanities with their proper state. Some have even ridiculed the idea that there is such a thing as Social Science or the worth and even the possibility of serious scholarship in the Humanities. That makes as little sense as condemning Physics based on the Climategate fraud or condemning Engineering based on the Chevy Volt. Essential as STEM is to the functioning of a productive economy and the education of an informed citizen it is not sufficient.
Those who crafted the American Republic were eminently practical men. The taught themselves a host of trades and Sciences, including Architecture Surveying Commerce War and Agriculture. Their formal educations included a little Mathematics, much of the Classics, Law, Literature, History and Theology. They studied Man.
We need STEM. We need the Liberal Arts. Both are essential to producing a citizen fully capable of providing leadership. Producing a well educated citizen ready to serve in the most demanding roles is very expensive in both time and money. We can only afford to educate a few to the highest standard. Since service in the military is arguably an important component of the education needed by those society needs to trust and reward the loss rate will be higher than with those educated to a lower standard. This can be devastating to a society. England never has fully recovered from the loss of her best at the Somme.
At most 2% of the population can or should be trained to the level represented by a proper, i.e. top 12, BA from 50 years ago. Far fewer should be admitted to graduate programs. We need these people in Commerce and Public Service. Now to many of the most capable from the top tier schools are sent into careers in Academia, with even more from 2nd and 3rd tier schools unjustifiably entering the expanding graduate school sphere. Even if we accept our elite institutions becoming Teachers of Teachers why would we feed graduates from other schools into the maw of a socialist jobs program?
We must also educate the many to as high a standard as possible to make them ready to serve as productive citizens of a Democracy, or Republic for those feeling argumentative and pedantic. The Secondary Schools must be restored to the level they held 50 years ago. At one time a High School diploma meant that someone was ready to work and serve as a citizen. Now it means nothing. We should raise the standards while also ending the wasteful retention of students in Secondary School after their 17th birthday. Previously I have called for sending every citizen to 6 months of basic military training after that age. The Community Colleges, which are a bloated jobs program, should be radically reduced.
What I am advocating is raising or restoring the standards to what they were at every level. With a real education for the Few and the Many there will be less waste, the cancerous subsidization of the Left would be cut back and we would have citizens ready to function in the roles expected of them. Those who prove incapable of meeting the minimum standard we should demand from a Secondary education are not ready to serve as citizens. The military does not want them and we should consider restricting the franchise to exclude those who fail to qualify.
“is the typical BA graduate getting a “liberal education”?”
Clearly not, hence “First is the degradation in quality.”
We should reclaim the once honorable word “liberal.”
gokart-mozart 40,
A most disturbing statistic. My working assumption is that one third of the population at most, ideally 20%, would fail to meet the minimum standard. It is possible that raising standards could increase retention. What do you propose for your alternative baccalaureate program? What would you do with these people? Send them to colonize Africa? That seems to be China’s plan.
Eggplant wrote:
“I’ve been focused on those very same set of curves. Something “broke” after 1981.”
I’ve been looking at those graphs, Eggplant, and have been intrigued by them like you have. And I’ve come to the conclusion that it isn’t the fact that something broke, but rather that something was repaired.
The late 1970′s was the inflection point for the rest of the world to have rebuilt and retrained from the destruction of WWII. That has changed everything.
Until then the U.S. and its labor force really didn’t have competition, and so while sharp but quick recessions were the rule, long ones were not. Recently I got into it with a union guy who kept asserting that because America was so unionized in the 1950′s , it was a prosperous country. I tried to get him to understand that he had it exactly backwards; that because the economy was roaring and American workers had little or no competition, they could make the sort of demands and form the sort of strong unions that occurred – because, after all, where else were the companies going to go for their labor resources? He was, of course, resistant to having his cherished narrative demolished, as much out of fear that his worldview might be wrong as out of a desire to self-aggrandize via union propaganda.
Add to this Blert’s excellent observations regarding the effect of increased mechanization/capital intensive approach to industry on the need for laborers, and the pandering of politicians to a populace increasingly open to the idea of financing their entitled and unrealistic material dreams without regard to the future, and you have a new (since the early ’80′s) employment environment that no longer responds in ways familiar to economists.
Our host and most of us who post here have known for years now that the money is gone. Lots of us have ideas about how to fix things. The ideas have ranged from the crazy (poster ybr who posited that we could regulate ourselves back to great wealth and high employment) to resigned (neo-monarchism promoted by a couple of folks) to apocalyptic (buy more ammo etc.) to those who seek more practical means of returning to a constitutional, limited government. One thing that everyone here does agree on, though, is that the “blue model”, as it has come to be called, has been defunct in a de facto way since Carter and its facade has been propped up by a credit system that does not reflect the true cost of borrowing money and by a population which has come to casually vastly overvalue the material worth of its labor.
I’m not sure “broke” really captures what has happened. “Changed”, yes, but I don’t think broken.
Perhaps the only way we can get through this is the hard way. (The French and Greeks could not be reached for comment.)
The Economist says that “in Portugal … some 40% of 18- to 30-year-olds say they would consider emigrating for employment reasons. In some countries, such as Italy, a constant brain-drain is one more depressing symptom of a stagnant economy. In Ireland, where discouragement among young workers has shot up since 2005 (see chart 2), migration doubled over the same period, with most of the departed between 20 and 35.”
You now have the prospect of countries whose fertility rates (already well below replacement levels) will see a further decline brought on by emmigration. The scenario which Spengler discusses in How Civilizations Die will be accelerated.
In regards to the usefulness of a liberal arts education, Forgotten Man @ 12 included a list of studies that are mostly useless for getting a job. While I agree, it is worth pointing out that they are not entirely useless. I majored in music, because I planned on working as a musician, and I greatly benefited from the training, and I get to show off a piece of paper too. Those degrees are just fine if you have a plan for how they will help you in your career.
The aspect of that calculation that is changing of late is the value of the piece of paper. If the piece of paper no longer has value, most of the training you’d get at an undergraduate level can be obtained elsewhere.
Blast #42:
Let me add to an amplify your remarks by quoting Robert Conquest in “The Dragons of Expectation.”
”And an ever larger section of society is put through “higher’ education. One element of this is educated in scientific and other specialized disciplines, though often unaccompanied by much in the way of ‘education’ proper. The other element is given a (shrinking) slice of the ‘humanist’ training that used to be the crux of learning, but a growing proportion of them have no option afterwards but to go on into an increasing large and less educated academe or to seek jobs in the bureaucracy (or in the bureaucratic section of academe itself) or, of course, to enter the media or such spheres as advertising. At any rate, the state is to some extent creating a nonproductive class and creating nonproductive work for them.”
LLIII (#19), I contend it is our Social Safety Net that has changed the equation more than any other factor, it is the primary reason for the elongating recovery periods, our Social Safety Net has grown in size and coverage during and after each recession, and today’s (starting in 2007) just one of those factors that has changed immensely is “unemployment coverage”, 99 weeks! (Wow), How about Food Stamps, another leg of our Social Safety Net that has grown massively!
There is an op-ed in Ynet news today written by a 49 year old woman who has been living in Italy for the past 29 years. Her family is moving to Israel because there is no future left in Italy for them.
I thought this was interesting
“I won’t deny that life in Milan is nice and comfortable, I love living here; there’s a kind of contagious relaxation, everything is very stylish and refined. We’ve got a friend in Israel who during the second Intifada was watching only Italian TV, because “the most depressing program is Wheel of Fortune…”
Even while the fields are burning Italians have managed to keep up a facade as if nothing was amiss.
“Italy in the 1980s: We lived our life with no problems; there were almost no immigrants and plenty of money and work for everybody. The most important concern was who will win the soccer championship, or what will be the length of the skirts for next season.”
But the walls are crumbling and there is no denying now that it is over.
“However, the situation here has changed. We can feel the xenophobia, especially because of the economic situation. Today one third of Italian youths are unemployed.”
“Many people were astonished by our decision, but for us it was clear: Israel is the future, Europe is the past.”
I wonder how many still see America as a future.
Some individuals are beginnning to look to their own resources to craft a future. Large groups aren’t. France just elected a Socialist. In London conservative Boris Johnson was reelected but the other council members are socialists. President Obama’s poll numbers remain oddly strong. Given the economy I believe they should be mid-30′s positive, at best.
L3 is right. There are a lot of people with a lot to lose. For them considering the alteratives, Bonapartism is an acceptable option.
This ride is not yet over.
Eggplant wrote:
“I’ve been focused on those very same set of curves. Something “broke” after 1981.”
Actually since the mid seventies. What broke was government couldn’t resist planting it’s ugly mitts over everything. Regulation exploded. The capital costs of starting a new business and the barriers to entry went way up. And you think these things wouldn’t effect the hiring of new people in a recovery?
Greece is headed towards a default. According to Zerohedge, loans from those who didn’t agree to the haircut deal come due May 15.
France will obviously face serious default risks as well. What will the Fed do? Will it continue to bailout Europe on the American Taxpayer’s dime when a Euro breakup is all but inevitable? European troubles will likely drag America’s economy down further, perhaps much further. Obama will finally have to face the consequences of his insane policies. This year – not in some future administration.
The only positive I can see about Romney is that he is apparently very upset over FrankenDodd. Our criminal American Banksters are no longer Bankers. They are getting out of the Banking business and almost refusing to grant loans in favor going on the more lucrative Fed Dole. This is going to be a wild year.
One of the main factors driving the increasing numbers of college graduates is that the federal government decided because of disproportionate impact that businesses were not permited to use aptitude tests for hiring purposes. Although they were very effective Afro-Americas did poorly on them. To provide some screening more and more businesses reqired an under graduate degree for jobs that really did not require one. The colleges were required to admit a larger number of minority students of face loss of government funding. This isn’t soe shadowy conspiracy, just our government in action.
“For some people, their highest and best use of time is to raise sheep for wool (and pecorino cheese).”
Merino wool is in very high demand. There is a recent trend towards using merino in performance gear like bike jerseys and hiking wear. I have thin merino base layers that perform well across broad weather conditions. They are nothing like the itchy wool garments of yesteryear you find in the salvation army. The new merino stuff is almost as soft as cotton, wicks and dries like poly, but doesn’t smell as bad after hard use (well, after a couple days you smell like a wet dog).
I for one would like to see more merino shepherds. Right now the tight supply of merino is keeping prices for wool performance clothing quite high compared to synthetic garments. Increasing the raw merino supply would decrease price relative to synthetic, increasing consumer demand. If I was out of work I would start a merino flock.
Also, milk from sheep and goats is naturally homogenized, and goat milk is quite similar to human milk, so some people tolerate it better than cow milk. Everyone knows a family with a kid allergic to (cow) milk. There is a lot of (hormone free) growth potential if the herders find and milk their niche market.
We recently signed onto a CSA. Not a group of revisionist civil war reenactors, but “community supported agriculture”. To wit, we bought a share of vegetables from a local organic farm, to be delivered as they ripen. Which means we are paying college educated young men and women to grow our tomatoes and kale. It is more expensive than store bought, but much fresher and we get first pick at the crops. It was funny to meet our college educated farmers. They are bright and motivated, so I am glad they are growing my food instead of competing for my white collar job.
Going back to the country to farm and shepherd isn’t so crazy. People still need to eat and wear clothing, so until they replace us all with robots there is a market.
11. stevesmith
“I don’t know much about about Mormons beyond the usual general knowledge and that they like the name Smith. They work hard and historically have thrived in tough new environments in the U.S. and in Canada. The Mormons I have run into have been straightforward can do people.”
One interesting Mormon fact: they stockpile a year of food for the apocalypse. Really.
This would be a bit worrisome, but they also are willing to teach and sell supplies to non-Mormons so we can also survive. I do wonder how that experience and background would influence national policy…
What many have forgotten is that over the last 40 or so years the feminist movement increased the size of the direct income labor force more rapidly than simple demographics.
In the past unemployment meant unemployed households. Today that is not entirely true. Many two income households are reverting to single income households. While this causes belt tightening and corresponding macro-economic contraction (including debt service problems) it could (repeat, could) be a correction of a new type, furthering W’s premise that this is a different sort of economic downturn, the first major post feminist correction.
Worthy of thought, that.
thnx
Fully agree with 19. Leo Linbeck III: “Still, I’m not too concerned about the average American. In my travels of late, my confidence in our countrymen has increased. There are millions of serious, resourceful Americans ready and able to adapt to any changes that come down the road.”
Liberal Arts Ed – my 3 boys, currently in their 20′s, had mostly Lib. Arts Education. Right now, they are about as well situated as one could hope with regard to personal survival and being of benefit to society – whether SHTF or not. It’s true that 2 of them took a good dose of math and real science as part of their education and all 3 have picked up some important practical skills that may prove more important than any diploma. The KEY components of education are two knowledge/skill areas
LANGUAGE (reading,writing)
ARITHMETIC
and the ability to apply those skills in CRITICAL THINKING.
Nothing wrong with a Lib. Arts Ed so long as the student avoids the Statist Propaganda Lobotomy that makes critical thinking impossible. FWIW – I was hopeless at math, but may have avoided the lobotomy.
Advice for survival – sure, make some preparation for a possible Zombie Apocalypse. I certainly give that a little thought and effort. But perhaps more important is to ask yourself this
“What did I do today that will help defeat B.O. in Nov?”
If you live in Wisc., “What did I do today to help Scott Walker win his recall election on June 5th?”
Winning these elections are not a guaranty of anything, but they are the minimal requirements for avoiding a Zombie Apocalypse.
blast@42: ” What would you do with these people? Send them to colonize Africa?”
If we can just agree to get them out of the schools where they do not belong, that would be a start IMO.
I see the problem a little different. Maybe I’m looking at the wrong side of the elephant.
The problem is too many people. In the past the powers that be would hold a war to thin out the peons. Can’t do that in the 21st century. The military now has PGM’s and it isn’t the peons that die but the elites. JDAM Assad and the Civil War in Syria is over.
So until some way is found to suck up the excess population, we (the human race) will just try to muddle through.
Hmm Hollande was the anti-Sarkozy vote, Sarkozy isn’t what the French were in use to see as their president role model, he is too bling bling, too “vulgar” (money showing is considered as vulgar, too rude, too impulsive… too “german”
Now, Hollande will not have a large margin for promoting his socialist agenda, the markets will recall him where to plan !
http://ce-soir-ou-jamais.france3.fr/?page=emission&id_rubrique=1557
Malika Sorel (of Algerian origin), says that Sarkozy was more of a american president type, that the French aren’t worshipping
Marie – It seems as though your countrymen do not realize that politicians cannot keep the party going indefinitely. The music will stop and someone will have to pay the musicians. Who knows what price they will ask?
A few notes on Italy.
Last spring I was in Tuscany and was talking to a savvy and wealthy Brit who lives atop a scenic hill. He said that part of Italy is so well-heeled because there is a swath down the center of the country in which many small businesses, many of them family owned, thrive and are run by “people who are not afraid to work.”
When I mentioned the beautiful fields and crops in the area, he said, “Farming is bankrupting the country,” which could only mean it’s overly subsidized.
There are areas outside of Milan that look almost bombed out, and the little towns in the hill country of Piedmont, where my family is from, are ghostly at night. The government says there can only be one bakery per town. The lady who runs the B&B we stayed at said the government strangles everything. She’s not supposed to make her own cakes and breads due to food regs. The one restaurant in town only serves drinks and desserts to locals most of the time. Maybe they can do a dish of pasta on demand. If you want a meal you have to arrange one a few days ahead.
But the remarkable thing is the lack of children. And it’s still a very Catholic country.
Blast: When you see us dissing the current crop of humanities courses and graduates here, we are not meaning to diss humanities in general. Very much the opposite: we are dissing the imposter, the vulgar pretender to the throne. Organized study of the humanities and social sciences in the U.S. lays pretty much in ruins at this point; Marxism has succeeded in invading it and bringing it down from the inside. This is all to plan; as you point out, it is from the traditional liberal arts that the West’s great leaders emerged from, so the destruction of same has been an essential part of conquering the Western world.
Unfortunately, so slick has the process been that relatively few people realize that anything happened. Far too many people view “critical gendo-racial theory” (or whatever the hell it’s called this week) not as an obscenity, but merely as an advanced concept in the humanities. They see it like superstring theory in physics: they don’t understand it at all, but all of the leading people in the field talk about it a lot, so it must be terribly important. And how would they think otherwise, when the academy, the media, and the government conspire to make sure the general public is never exposed to any criticism of the orthodoxy? They pay hundreds of thousands of dollars to send their children off to study these topics, honestly believing that they are paying for the very best education that any generation has ever been able to obtain, and not realizing the truth until it’s too late and their precious offspring is back at home living in the basement and trying to sell random pieces of junk on Etsy, if they are making any effort at all.
I see a possibility that a grassroots movement in America may succeed in rebuilding the humanities from the ground up. There’s an awful lot of underground literature being written and circulated these days, ranging from amateur political philosophy posted as blog comments (ahem) to fan fiction, graphic novels, semi-pro game scripts and viral amateur movies. Some of it is garbage, but some of it is easily the equal (at least) of anything being produced by the ossified professorate these days. The reform will not come from the academy; in fact, it will fight the reform tooth and nail. Who will win? I’m not sure. But I know which side I’m on.
(And yeah, I’m one of those STEM guys: B.S. in computer science and math, from the mid-’80s. And I like to tell people that the humanities majors were a lot more fun to argue with back when they could cogently argue back.)
WHO ARE THE PEOPLE WHO GAVE UP LOOKING FOR WORK?
Seriously, who are they? How are they surviving?
I know that they must belong to several different categories, and with a variety of reasons as to why they’ve had difficulty finding full employment (or any employment in some cases).
I have to confess that these folks are coming across like the mysterious Sea Peoples at the end of the Bronze Age. The feds are pretending they don’t exist, and those that acknowledge their existence in the media just lump them all together, mention them very briefly, and then cast them aside.
Who are they?
Those turning their back on reality are most likely to get kicked in the ass by it…
63
I thought they were the ones who have reached the end of their 99 week unemployment conveyor belt, and been fed into the solyndra green processing vat. As long as they registered to vote before they fell off, that was all the Chicago Machine needed.
On a serious note, perhaps finding some of those people would make a good campaign ad. “Obama thinks i’ve given up. I want to work. Romney will…”
On a serious note, perhaps finding some of those people would make a good campaign ad. “Obama thinks i’ve given up. I want to work. Romney will…”
That is what I’m getting at. I want these people found, and their stories told, in their own words. I want an effective, heart-rending, anger-inducing series of TV and web ads.
I want Romney and the GOP to end each one of these ads with:
I was not able to delete this. Request for deltion got hung up ???????
On a serious note, perhaps finding some of those people would make a good campaign ad. “Obama thinks i’ve given up. I want to work. Romney will…”
That is what I’m getting at. I want these people found, and their stories told, in their own words. I want an effective, heart-rending, anger-inducing series of TV and web ads. I want the virtual fraud of the official unemployment numbers highlighted. I want these ads to also point out that unleashing the energy sector and liberating small business (and all business) from onerous over-regulation is bound to provide many of these people with fulltime jobs.
I want Romney and the GOP to end each one of these ads with: WE HAVE NOT FORGOTTEN YOU. WE WANT TO PUT YOU BACK TO WORK.
How many in the “giving up on work” category might be retiring baby-boomers?
I read somewhere that 10,000 boomers a day were “retiring.” Now the oldest that an actual boomer can be this year is 67, and a whole lot more are 65 and younger. With a trend for wanting to work well past retirement, does that dropout rate sound believable? ALso, the statistics on employment dropouts states that the figures cited are for working age individuals, not “retirees.” What is defined as “working age?”
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay12/labor-paid-work5-12.html
Strangely, for me, on topic.
Click on his video: the doomed middle class….
the first boomers were born in 1946. This being 2012, the oldest boomer is 66, not 67. Age discrimination is real. “Are you sure you have the energy for this fast paced job?” Although in Silicon Valley it can be anyone over 40.
I can just picture Romney with some of the forgotten men, powerful stuff. He can emphasize companies turned around after cutting the dead wood. Real jobs, not just make work. An America where you earn money, not have it handed to you like Goldman Sacks, and other Obama cronies.
Presby…
The authors of Generations marked the Boomers as those born in 1943 and there after.
Their reasons are in their tome.
Since the term is their creature, I give them their due.
—–
In the Valley anyone older than the boss can be too old.
Your late 30s are your swanning years; by 40 — you’re toast — even Stanford degrees in the micro-electronics art will not save you.
Left unsaid is that the Valley is a WAR ZONE. All the troops are deployed for eighty-hour weeks. If that’s not you — you’re not a player.
( c.f. Yahoo’s early daze )
The Khmer Rouge had a plan on reeducating the gifted, intelligent and the City dwellers, send them out into the rice paddies en mass. Is this the back to agriculture you are thinking of?
If so that didn’t go to well.