The Oopsa Cycle

The Guardian quotes North Korea policy specialists associated with both the Bush and Clinton administrations as saying that “policy of engagement with North Korea lies ‘in tatters’ after it was effectively shot down by Pynongyang’s defiant but failed attempt to launch a long-range rocket.”

In February, the Washington and Pyongyang reached an agreement under which the communist regime would halt its missile testing and uranium enrichment, and agree to the resumption of international monitoring of its nuclear sites, in return for Washington providing 240,000 tonnes of food to the North Korea which has faced widespread shortages and famine.

By March, U.S. envoys in China were putting the finishing touches on arrangements to deliver the food. Then Pyongyang announced a missile test, “which the Obama administration claimed was a ballistic missile test – would violate the agreement.”

They now expect North Korea to try and overcome the embarrassment caused at the rocket breaking into pieces over the Yellow Sea by carrying out a third nuclear test in the near future.

If that goes ahead, it will represent a significant foreign policy failure for Obama and prove a severe political embarrassment in an election year.

The Brookings Institution expressed surprise at the North Korean double cross. Writing before the North Korean missile test, Evans Revere wrote, “what is it about North Korea and that country’s penchant for violating agreements?”

The ink on the February 29th “Leap Day” agreement to freeze Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs was hardly dry when North Korea announced its intention to launch a satellite – a clear violation of that agreement, and of several UN Security Council resolutions. The Leap Day accord is now in peril. It is hard to imagine the United States keeping its side of the bargain if the North proceeds with the mid-April launch.

But he adds that this only shows how brilliant President Obama was in negotiating with the North Koreans. “With the looming collapse of the Leap Day agreement, some critics are faulting the Obama administration for its willingness to negotiate in good faith, rather than criticizing Pyongyang for breaking faith. Venting at the administration is badly misplaced. It also ignores the fact that each time Pyongyang breaks its word it strengthens the U.S. hand, making it easier to secure the support of the international community for tougher measures against the DPRK.”

A cynic might be tempted to observe that the Korean double cross proves nothing that wasn’t already known about Pyongyang. It is hard to imagine that diplomats will only now be saying, “Oh I never knew that North Korea doesn’t keep its word.” But it is quite easy to imagine diplomats in every cocktail party in the world chorusing in contemplation of the president’s engagement policy:

Another one bites the dust
Another one bites the dust
And another one gone and another one gone
Another one bites the dust.

But nothing daunted, Politico reports that administration spokesmen engaged in a spirited defense of President Obama’s engagement policy. “The White House said Friday that North Korea’s missile launch did not represent a failure of their policy towards the country.” White House spokesman Ben Rhodes said:

“What this administration has done has broken the cycle of rewarding provocative actions by the North Koreans that we’ve seen in the past. Under the previous administration, for instance, there was a substantial amount of assistance provided to North Korea. North Korea was removed from the terrorism list, even as they continued to engage in provocative actions. Under our administration we have not provided any assistance to North Korea,” Rhodes told reporters.

“We had discussions with them about potentially an agreement where they would freeze their enrichment activities and take some other steps towards denuclearization and that we as a part of that might provide food assistance, but we also made clear that we could not go forward with that type of agreement if they could not keep their commitments. And their efforts to launch a missile clearly demonstrates that they could not be trusted to keep their commitments, therefore we’re not going forward with an agreement to provide them with any assistance,” Rhodes added.

Of course it makes perfect sense to trust someone in order to prove that you will be betrayed. People do this all the time. Surely this unassailable logic will only strengthen the president’s reputation among international diplomats, who we last imagined chorusing at a cocktail party. How will they receive this latest demarche from the White House? Will they now conclude that the president has now backed little Kim into a corner? That he is poised to deliver yet another masterstroke of diplomacy?

Diplomats are notoriously reluctant to tell presidents what they really think of their policies. So perhaps the diplomats will break into another chorus:

Is this the real life?
Is this just fantasy?
Caught in a landslide
No escape from reality
Open your eyes
Look up to the skies and see.

Bismillah! No – we will not let you go – let him go
Bismillah! We will not let you go – let him go
Bismillah! We will not let you go – let me go
Will not let you go – let me go (never)
Never let you go – let me go
Never let me go – ooo
No, no, no, no, no, no, no –
Oh mama mia, mama mia, mama mia let me go
Beelzebub has the devil put aside for me
for me
for me
for me…

Nothing really matters
Anyone can see
Nothing really matters, nothing really matters, to me.